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Economy of Iceland 2016

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Economy of Iceland 2016 ECONOMY OF ICELAND Contents 5 Introduction 7 1 Country and people 13 2 Structure of the economy Boxes: The individual transferable quota system 20 Sectoral limitations on foreign direct investment 21 29 3 Financial system 39 4 Public sector Box: The tax system 44 Iceland's fiscal framework 49 53 5 Monetary and financial stability policies Box: New policy instrument to temper and affect the composition of capital inflows 57 59 6 External position 67 7 Government, corporate, and household balance sheets 75 8 Capital account liberalisation Box: Stability conditions and stability contributions 81 83 Appendix Published by: The Central Bank of Iceland, Kalkofnsvegur 1, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland Tel: (+354) 569 9600, fax: (+354) 569 9605 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.sedlabanki.is Editorial Board and staff: Rannveig Sigurdardóttir, chairman Hördur Gardarsson Elís Pétursson Gerdur Ísberg Jónas Thórdarson Ragnheidur Jónsdóttir October 2016 Printing: ODDI ehf. Economy of Iceland is also published on the Central Bank of Iceland website. ISSN 1024-6680 Material may be reproduced from Economy of Iceland, but an acknowledgement of source is kindly requested. In Economy of Iceland, monetary figures are generally presented in euros; however, in certain instances, amounts are expressed in US dollars. The amount in Icelandic krónur is included in pa- rentheses, as most figures are originally in krónur. Stocks at the end of the period are calculated using the period-end exchange rate, whereas flows are calculated using the average exchange rate for the period. Icelandic letters: ð/Ð (pronounced like th in English this) þ/Þ (pronounced like th in English think) Symbols: * Preliminary or estimated data. 0 Less than half of the unit used. - Nil. … Not available. Not applicable. Republic of Iceland People Population 332,529 (1 January 2016) Capital Reykjavík; population 122,460 (1 January 2016) Language Icelandic; belongs to the Nordic group of Germanic languages Main religion Evangelical Lutheran (71.6%) Life expectancy Females: 84 years; Males: 81 years Governmental system Government Constitutional republic Suffrage Universal, over 18 years of age; proportional representation Legislature Parliament (Althingi) with 63 members Election term Four years; last election 27 April 2013 Economy Monetary unit Króna (plural: krónur); currency code: ISK Gross domestic product 12 billion euros (2,205.479 billion krónur, 13.55 billion US dollars) in 2015 International trade Exports of goods and services 53% and imports of goods and services 46% of GDP in 2015 Per capita GDP 33.66 thousand euros in 2015 (6.7 million krónur, 46 thousand US dollars in terms of PPP) Land Geographic size 103,000 sq.km. (39,769 sq.mi.) Highest point 2,110 m. (6,923 ft.) Exclusive economic zone 200 nautical miles (758,000 sq.km. / 292,665 sq.mi.) Climate Cool temperate oceanic; highly changeable, influenced by the warm Gulf Stream and Arctic currents Republic of Iceland credit ratings Foreign currency Local currency Affirmed Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term Outlook Moody's September 2016 A-3 … A-3 … Stable Standard & Poor's July 2016 BBB+ A-2 BBB+ A-2 Stable Fitch July 2016 BBB+ F2 BBB+ F2 Stable Central Bank of Iceland publications in English Annual Report Monetary Bulletin Financial Stability Economy of Iceland Economic Affairs Informational Reports Special Publications Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers These publications are available on the Central Bank website. Also available on the website are regularly updated Central Bank statistics and Economic Indicators, a snapshot of the Icelandic economy in charts and tables. Useful websites Central Bank of Iceland www.sedlabanki.is Parliament of Iceland (Althingi) www.althingi.is Government of Iceland www.government.is Statistics Iceland www.statice.is OMX Nordic Exchange in Iceland www.nasdaqomx.com Government Debt Management www.bonds.is Trade Council of Iceland www.icetrade.is National Association of Pension Funds www.ll.is Invest in Iceland Agency www.invest.is Financial Supervisory Authority www.fme.is The Official Gateway to Iceland www.iceland.is Tokyo 8900 km Copenhagen 2122 km New York 4208 km London 1884 km Introduction Economy of Iceland has been published by the Central Bank of Iceland since 1987. It is mainly intended for an international readership. This includes international institutions that deal with Icelandic economic matters on a regular basis, rating agencies, financial institutions, foreign in- vestors, embassies and, more generally, everyone who is interested in the Icelandic economy. We also hope that Icelandic readers will find this survey useful. It is published every other year. This publication focuses on the structure of the Icelandic economy. It is intended to serve as background material for understanding the evolution of the economy, but it does not provide a detailed account of recent developments. A more up-to-date analysis of recent developments and prospects is provided in the Central Bank’s Monetary Bulletin and Financial Stability reports. The Bank‘s Annual Report describes the Central Bank of Iceland‘s general activities during the year. The outline of this booklet is as follows: Chapter 1 presents basic facts about Icelandic geog- raphy, population, and society. Chapter 2 deals with the structure of the economy. It discusses size and income levels, the composition of GDP, foreign trade, main economic sectors, the labour market, and the Icelandic pension system. Chapter 3 provides an account of the financial system and discusses the various challenges during the recovery following the financial crisis. Chapter 4 surveys the public sector, including division of tasks, central and local government finances, expenditure structure, and the tax system. Chapter 5 describes the frameworks for monetary policy and financial stability. It explains the objectives and main instruments of monetary policy, and the role of the Monetary Policy Committee. It also elaborates on financial stability policy and the Central Bank’s role in promoting an efficient and safe financial system. Chapter 6 presents Iceland’s external debt position. It elaborates on the accumulation of debt in the years preced- ing the financial crisis and developments in its aftermath. It discusses changes in foreign direct investment and provides estimates of net foreign debt levels after the winding-up of the failed banks' estates. Chapter 7 describes government, corporate, and household balance sheets. It discusses the position of the Government, households, and businesses, and examines debt re- structuring following the financial crisis. Chapter 8 discusses Iceland’s capital controls, why they were introduced, the steps taken thus far in lifting them, and the potential risks accompanying their liberalisation. A number of tables are provided in an appendix. We are constantly making efforts to improve this publication. Hence we would be grateful for any comments and suggestions that might increase the usefulness of this booklet. If you feel that important information is missing and should be added, or if you see other scope for improvement, please e-mail your suggestions to: [email protected]. 1 Country and people This chapter gives an overview of the country of Iceland – its geography and the main characteristics of its people, society, and political and institutional structure – and of Iceland as a welfare state. It also reviews Iceland‘s external relations and its status in a global context. Geography Iceland is an island located in the North Atlantic, between Norway, Scotland, and Greenland. It is the second-largest island in Europe and the third-largest in the Atlantic Ocean, with a land area of some 103 thousand square kilometres, a coastline of 6,088 kilometres and a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending over 758 thousand square kilo metres in the surround- ing waters. Iceland enjoys a warmer climate than its northerly location would indicate because a part of the Gulf Stream flows around the southern and western coasts of the country. In the capital, Reykjavík, the average temperature is nearly 13°C in July and just above 0°C in January. Iceland is mostly mountainous and of volcanic origin, with the highest peak reaching 2,110 metres. Lowlands stretch from the coast towards the interior, mainly in the south and the west. Several glaciers, one of them the largest in Europe, distinguish the landscape. The coasts are Chart 1.2 Chart 1.1 Population of Iceland1 Geography of Iceland1 In thousands of inhabitants Year-on-year change (%) 400 3.0 23% 350 2.5 300 2.0 63% 250 1.5 3% 200 1.0 12% 150 0.5 100 0.0 50 -0.5 Vegetation (23,805 sq. km) Wasteland (64,538 sq. km) 0 -1.0 Lakes (2,757 sq. km) ‘75 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 ‘15 Glaciers (11,922 sq. km) Population (left) Population increase, % (right) 1. The size of Iceland is roughly 103,000 square kilometres. Sources: Icelandic Geodetic Survey, National Energy Authority, Science Institute, University of Iceland. 1. Population 1 January each year. Source: Statistics Iceland. Country and people 7 ECONOMY OF ICELAND rocky and of irregular outline, with numerous fjords and inlets, except for the south, where there are sandy beaches with no natural harbours. Only around 23% of the total land area is classi- fied as vegetated land, most of it located in the southern and western part of the country and in several fertile valleys stretching from the coast. Iceland is endowed with abundant natural resources. These include the fishing grounds around the island, within and outside the country’s 200-mile EEZ. Furthermore, Iceland has abundant hydroelectric and geothermal energy resources. People Iceland was settled in the ninth century A.D. The majority of the settlers were of Norse origin, with a smaller Celtic element. A general legislative and judicial assembly, the Althingi, was es- tablished in 930, and a uniform code of laws for the country was established at the same time.
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