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The Political Comparativestudy Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth Public Disclosure Authorized A WordmIank The Political ComparativeStudy Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth Public Disclosure Authorized Five Small Open Economies Public Disclosure Authorized Edited by Ronald Findlay Stanislaw Wellisz Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth Series editors Deepak Lal and Hla Myint A World Bank The Political ComparativeStudyThPoica Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth ive Small Open Economies Edited by Ronald Findlay Stanislaw Wellisz -. _ ,;Published for the World Bank Oxford University Press Oxford University Press OXFORD NEW YORK TORONTO DELHI BOMBAY CALCUTTA MADRAS KARACHI KUALA LUMPUR SINGAPORE HONG KONG TOKYO NAIROBI DAR ES SALAAM CAPE TOWN MELBOURNE AUCKLAND and associated companies in BERLINIBADAN 01993 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 200 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016 Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Manufactured in the United States of America First printing June 1993 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Five small open economies / edited by Ronald Findlay, Stanislaw Wellisz. p. cm.-(A World Bank comparative study. The Political economy of poverty, equity, and growth.) Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN 0-19-520880-3 1. Poor-Developing countries-Case studies. 2. Developing countries-Economic conditions-Case studies. 3. Developing countries-Economic policy-Case studies. I. Findlay, Ronald. II. Wellisz, Stanislaw. HI. Series: World Bank comparative studies. Political economy of poverty, equity, and growth. HC59.72.P6F58 1993 330.9172'4-dc2O 93-4390 CIP Foreword This volume is the sixth of several emerging from the comparative study "The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth," sponsored by the World Bank. The study was done to provide a critical evaluation of the economic history of selected developing countries in 1950-85. It explores the processes that yielded different levels of growth, poverty, and equity in these countries, depending on each country's initial resource endowment and economic structure, national institutions and forms of economic organization, and economic policies (including those that might have been undertaken). The Scope of the Comparative Study The basic building block of the project is a coherent story of the growth and income distribution experiences of each country, based on the methods of what may be termed "analytical economic history" (see Collier and Lal 1986) and "political economy." Each country study provides both a historical narrative and a deeper explanation of how and why things happened. Each study also seeks to identify the role of ideology and interest groups in shaping policy. Our comparative approach involved pairing (or, in the present case, grouping) countries whose initial conditions or policies seemed to be either significantly similar or significantly different. Although initial impressions of similarity or difference may not have been borne out on closer inspection, this binary approach offered a novel and promising way of reconciling in-depth case studies with a broader comparative method of analysis. To provide this in-depth study of individual cases, a smaller number of countries was selected than is conventional in comparative statistical studies. We have serious doubts about the validity of inferences drawn from such cross-sectional regression studies about historical processes (see Hicks 1979). Therefore this project, by combining qualitative with quantitative analysis, has tried instead to interpret the nature and signif- v vi Foreuword icance of the usual quantifiable variables for each country in its historical and institutional context. To provide some unifying elements to the project, we presented the authors of the country studies with several provisional hypotheses to be considered in the course of their work. These concern the determinants of growth, the importance of historical and organizational factors in determining alternative feasible paths of growth to redress poverty, and the relative roles of ideas, interests, and ideology in influencing decisionmaking. The following list of the country studies and their principal authors suggests the range of the overall comparative study: Malawi and Madagascar Frederic L. Pryor Egypt and Turkey Bent Hansen Sri Lanka and Malaysia Henry Bruton Indonesia and Nigeria David Bevan, Paul Collier, and Jan Gunning Thailand and Ghana Oey A. Meesook, Douglas Rimmer, and Gus Edgren Brazil and Mexico Angus Maddison and Associates Costa Rica and Uruguay Simon Rottenberg Colombia and Peru Antonio Urdinola, Mauricio Carrizosa Serrano, and Richard Webb Five Small Open Economies: Ronald Findlay and Stanislaw Wellisz Hong Kong, Singapore, Malta, Jamaica, and Mauritius Several of these volumes have been or will be published in this series by Oxford University Press. In addition, a volume of special studies on related topics has been published (Psacharopoulos 1991). This Volume Unlike all other volumes in this series, each of which analyzes a pair of countries on a comparative basis, this volume involves a comparison of five small open economies. All five are islands with small populations (the largest being Hong Kong, with a little more than 5 million people), and all have long been connected with the United Kingdom as former or, in the case of Hong Kong, present colonies. This status gives them a similar political and institutional background and a common depen- dence on external markets for their development. Foreword vii This volume consists of five case studies, preceded by an introduction that describes the similarities and differences among the five cases and the methodology followed in conducting the research. The concluding chapter analyzes the outcomes in a comparative manner. Despite the similarity in initial conditions, reflected in a relatively narrow dispersion of per capita incomes in 1960, the economic status of the five economies today is vastly different. The economies of Hong Kong and Singapore have grown at spectacular rates, exceeding those of most countries in the world over the same period, while Jamaica, despite having the best natural resource endowment of the five, has performed disappointingly. Malta places a respectable third in economic growth, followed by Mauritius, which has done quite well overall, especially in recent years. Thus it is the three "barren" islands, whose only natural resources have been their harbors and favorable locations, that have done the best, while the two better-endowed plantation- and mineral-based econo- mies, especially Jamaica, have faltered. As indicated in the studies, the struggle among domestic groups over rents from natural resources tends to engender policies that fail to promote the export of manufactures to expanding world markets. Although Hong Kong and Singapore are often linked as East Asian export-oriented "miracle" economies, the study shows how different the development strategies have been beneath the surface. Only Hong Kong approximates the laissez-faire ideal, but even here there has been exten- sive government control of land use and provision of public housing. The Singaporean govermnent, by contrast, has intervened extensively to promote domestic saving and to channel investment (largely by foreign multinational companies) into certain sectors, while providing generous physical and social infrastructure to induce this direct foreign invest- ment, which is the mainstay of production and exports. Malta, unlike both Hong Kong and Singapore, has not had a liberal trade policy, but it has nevertheless done well in manufacturing, production, and export growth. In light of recent tragic events in other parts of the world, it is encouraging to note that three of the islands-Mauritius in particular but also Singapore and Jamaica-have delicate ethnic balances to contend with in their political economy and that all have done so remarkably well. Another important finding is that growth has not occurred at the expense of equity. Both Hong Kong and Singapore have experienced no deterioration in income distribution despite their extremely rapid growth. In fact, it is export growth that has raised wages and so served as an engine of redistribution as well as of growth. It is slowest-growing Jamaica that has experienced the greatest decline of equity, because it viii Foreword has lacked a vigorous mechanism for providing jobs and incomes for poor people. In Mauritius the wealthy Franco-Mauritian planters, with their sugar profits taxed heavily by the Hindu majority government, have invested actively in the export processing zone and thus provided a more dynamic source of employment and wage growth. Taken together, the experience of the five small open economies vindicates the general wisdom of outward-looking policies. Deepak Lal and
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