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Dynamic Escape Routes for Naval Ships

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Dynamic Escape Routes for Naval Ships View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2005-09 Dynamic escape routes for Naval ships Perez Villalonga, Francisco J. Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2085 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS DYNAMIC ESCAPE ROUTES FOR NAVAL SHIPS by Francisco J. Pérez Villalonga September 2005 Thesis Advisor: Javier Salmerón Second Reader: Kevin Wood Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2005 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Dynamic Escape Routes for Naval Ships 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Francisco J. Perez Villalonga 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis addresses the problem of optimal evacuation of a naval ship. We propose the use of a dynamic escape-route system which employs a signaling system to adapt the emergency egress process to the instigating contingency. The evacuation process is represented by a nonlinear network optimization model with an objective function that integrates two conflicting goals: the average evacuation time and the ship’s integrity. The nonlinearity in the model results from (a) speed being a nonlinear function of concurrent flow on passageways, and (b) delays caused by opening closures. We also account for counter-flows and passageways used by repair parties. The problem is heuristically solved through an iterative process that updates speeds and delays as it proceeds, and dynamically adds valid inequalities to avoid counter-flows. A bound on the solution quality is obtained by solving the problem under optimistic conditions. Compared to static routes in a modern frigate, model solutions show that dynamic routes can improve the average evacuation time by 20%, reduce the time of the last evacuee by 25%, and improve ship integrity. We also demonstrate that even greater improvements are achievable with minor design changes in the ship. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Military problems; Ship evacuation; Network optimization 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 121 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DYNAMIC ESCAPE ROUTES FOR NAVAL SHIPS Francisco J. Pérez Villalonga Lieutenant Commander, Spanish Navy M.S., Naval Architect, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Spain) 1999 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2005 Author: Francisco J. Pérez Villalonga Approved by: Javier Salmerón Thesis Advisor Kevin Wood Second Reader James N. Eagle Chairman, Department of Operations Research iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis addresses the problem of optimal evacuation of a naval ship. We propose the use of a dynamic escape-route system which employs a signaling system to adapt the emergency egress process to the instigating contingency. The evacuation process is represented by a nonlinear network optimization model with an objective function that integrates two conflicting goals: the average evacuation time and the ship’s integrity. The nonlinearity in the model results from (1) speed being a nonlinear function of concurrent flow on passageways, and (2) delays caused by opening closures. We also account for counter-flows and passageways used by repair parties. The problem is heuristically solved through an iterative process that updates speeds and delays as it proceeds, and dynamically adds valid inequalities to avoid counter-flows. A bound on the solution quality is obtained by solving the problem under optimistic conditions. Compared to static routes in a modern frigate, model solutions show that dynamic routes can improve the average evacuation time by 20%, reduce the time of the last evacuee by 25%, and improve ship integrity. We also demonstrate that even greater improvements are achievable with minor design changes in the ship. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. BETTER EVACUATION OF NAVAL SHIPS.............................................1 1. The Problem .........................................................................................1 2. The Model.............................................................................................3 3. Justification Of Dynamic Escape Routes...........................................4 B. NAVAL SHIPS EVACUATION PROCESS.................................................5 C. MODELING NAVAL-SHIP EVACUATION...............................................9 1. From Passenger-Ship Models To Naval-Ship Models ......................9 2. Overview Of The Optimization Model ............................................10 D. THESIS OUTLINE........................................................................................11 II. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION ..................................................................13 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................13 B. INDICES AND SETS OF INDICES ............................................................15 C. PARAMETERS [UNITS]..............................................................................16 D. DECISION VARIABLES .............................................................................17 E. OBJECTIVE FUNCTION AND CONSTRAINTS.....................................17 F. DESCRIPTION..............................................................................................19 III. SOLUTION METHODOLOGY ..............................................................................21 A. DESCRIPTION..............................................................................................21 IV. CASE STUDY ............................................................................................................25 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................25 B. NODES............................................................................................................27 1. Node ID ...............................................................................................28 2. Type.....................................................................................................28 a. Compartments .........................................................................28 b. Closures ...................................................................................29 c. Mustering Stations ..................................................................29 3. Material Condition Of Readiness.....................................................30 4. Coordinates.........................................................................................30 5. Source Nodes ......................................................................................31 C. ARCS...............................................................................................................33 V. TEST SCENARIOS...................................................................................................35 A. SCENARIO OVERVIEW.............................................................................35 B. INTACT-SHIP SCENARIOS.......................................................................37 C. DAMAGED-SHIP SCENARIOS .................................................................43 1. USS STARK Case ..............................................................................43 2. USS COLE Case.................................................................................46 D. DESIGN ASPECTS .......................................................................................49
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