IPCSIPCS SpecialSpecial ReportReport 130 August 2012

MyanmarMyanmar

Pangs of Democratic Transition

Sampa Kundu

SOUTHEAST ASIA RESEARCH PROGRAMME (SEARP)

Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

B‐7/3, Safdarjung Enclave New Delhi 110029 91‐11‐4100 1900 www.ipcs.org

About the Author

© 2012, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies is not responsible for the facts, views or opinion expressed by the author.

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Sampa Kundu Studies (IPCS), established in August 1996, is an independent think tank devoted to research on peace and Ms Sampa Kundu is a Research Scholar at the School of security from a South Asian International Studies, JNU, New Delhi and is working on perspective. India and in BIMSTEC: Implications for North‐ east India. Its aim is to develop a comprehensive and alternative framework for peace and security in the region catering to the changing demands of national, regional and global security.

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New Delhi 110029 INDIA The Southeast Asia Research Program (SEARP) within the Institute, as a part of its activities, undertake re‐ Tel: 91‐11‐4100 1900, 4165 2556, search and organise events under "Inside Southeast 4165 2557, Asia," aimed at exploring issues and challenges in 4165 2558, 4165 2559 contemporary Southeast Asia covering economic is‐ sues, inter‐State relations, political developments and Fax: (91‐11) 4165 2560 emerging social tensions and fault lines. This essay

Email: [email protected] was a part of the first annual conference held in De‐ Web: www.ipcs.org cember 2011. IPCS Special Report 130, August 2012

Myanmar Pangs of Democratic Transition

Sampa Kundu

I broader international context, a brief INTRODUCTION attempt has also been made to analyse the neighbours’ responses towards Myanmar’s Burma or Myanmar, as it was renamed in recent developments. At the end, the essay 1989, is undergoing a transition. In 2003, draws attention towards the post‐2010 the then Prime Minister of Myanmar, Khin election trends in Myanmar and the future Nyunt designed a seven point road map for possibilities. Myanmar, which included a referendum, a new constitution and elections for the The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an country (Holliday, 2008). Though Khin independent research agency conducted a Nyunt was ousted from the government survey among 167 countries, and soon, his thoughts gave a new vista to the according to them only 26 countries enjoy government of Myanmar to build a support full democracy and no country in South base in the country and abroad. This and Southeast Asia falls in this category. proposal was adopted to create a Some of the questions that were asked flourishing and democratic Myanmar so during the survey included whether that both international and domestic pro‐ national elections are free and fair, how democracy supporters could be pacified. secure are the voters, to what extent the The 2010 November elections were sixth national government is influenced by on the list of the seven points projected by foreign powers, is there freedom of the government of Myanmar for the expression, what is the state of human transition to democracy. rights and so on (EIU, 2010). These questions should be kept in mind while The purpose of this paper is to study and dealing with the issue of democracy. find out what is happening behind the curtains, and to investigate how far or near Before going into the details of the 2010 Myanmar is towards democracy. For that, elections in Myanmar, one should have a the essay broadly deals with the 2010 look at Myanmar’s recent history, election process and its immediate especially with reference to its fight for implications for the country so far. For and against democracy. understanding Myanmar's politics in a

Myanmar: Pangs of Democratic Transition

Democratic ideas are not new to Burma. Voting was introduced for the local government of Burma as early as 1882. By In 1993, the Junta established a gov‐ 1923, household suffrage for formation of ernment funded organization called legislature was introduced in Burma with Union Solidarity and Development Or‐ no gender discrimination. But things ganization (USDA). Than Shwe and underwent a change with the subsequent his supporters used this organization military rule in the country. ’s one to raise support for the government to party rule came to an end in 1988 in the the maximum possible ext. wake of the famous 8‐8‐88 incident.

This uprising was mainly led by the students but they were soon suppressed. Another military government came to the democratic movement. fore in the name of State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). SLORC Apart from regular arrests and detentions organized a national level election in 1990. of the pro‐democracy leaders and their In this election, the world saw the rise of supporters, the Junta has also tried to another charismatic leader in the history capture the social and economic life of the of Myanmar ‐ the daughter of Aung San, people. In 1993, the Junta established a hero of Burmese freedom movement, Daw government funded organization called . In the meanwhile, she Union Solidarity and Development had formed her party, National League for Organization (USDA). Than Shwe and his Democracy (NLD), and decided to fight for supporters used this organization to raise democracy in her country. support for the government. In fact, Kudo (2011) said, all senior students of the The NLD contested the 1990 election and country were required to accept its secured more than 80 per cent of the membership and encouraged to spy on votes. The SLORC needed to convene the fellow students. parliament within 60 days in July 1990. But SLORC ignored the existing laws and In 2010, the USDA was renamed as Union ignored NLD’s repeated call for a meeting Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to solve the issue. and participated in the national elections. The military used to control the entire

The NLD leaders decided to form a economy of the country through three legitimate government in the country. This organizations: Union of Myanmar move of the NLD was brutally suppressed Economic Holdings (UMEH), Myanmar by the SLORC; the offices of the NLD were Economic Cooperation (MEC) and raided, supporters and leaders were Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC). arrested and several other punitive One of the principle objectives of UMEH is measures were taken to destroy the to meet the basic needs of the military IPCS Special Report 130, August 2012

personnel and their families. On the other popularly known as the hand, MEC works to transfer all public of 2007. Soon the monks took over the sector funds to the private sector, and MIC leadership of this movement until the handles all foreign investments in SPDC destroyed it completely. Myanmar. (Salah, Yusuf 2009) The Myanmar government faced intense In between these political, social and international criticism for the brutal economic developments, SLORC was suppression of the Saffron Revolution. In dissolved and renamed as State Peace and order to divert the international attention, Development Council (SPDC) in 1997 with the SPDC decided to hold the National leadership under Senior General Than Convention on 3 September, 2007, which Shwe. On its part, the Junta also took some was according to them the first and second initiatives in order to influence the people step towards democracy. The Junta about its good spirit for reinstallation of declared that Myanmar should have a democracy. In 1993, the government had disciplined democracy under the announced the formation of a national leadership of the military, and should not convention for a new constitution for the encourage any rapid changes. It was country. In 2003, the idea of the seven‐ reported that on 18 September 2007 the point road map was got put forth, as SPDC formed a 54‐member drafting mentioned earlier. However, all these committee for the constitution‐ the third efforts were very sporadic and step towards democracy ( Maung, Myoe insignificant in nature, and the slow pace 2009). on the part of the government only proved their reluctance for the restoration of In mid‐2008, when a large number of the democracy. population was actually struggling for survival in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, In 2007, the third biggest movement was the SPDC decided to hold the referendum undertaken by the pro‐democratic youth for the new constitution. Meanwhile, in and volunteers since the 8‐8‐88 uprising, April 2008, the constitution drafting committee had released a 194 page draft constitution to the public, and in May, The 2002 ‘declaration’ on the code of 2008 the constitutional referendum was conduct of parties in the SCS dispute, finally held. It implies that people got only hopes to fructify a more binding code one month time to study the draft of conduct, while managing tensions constitution before the referendum. through a support of the tenets of Though the number of participating voters 1982 UNCLOS such as freedom of were significantly low in the Cyclone navigation, over‐flight and MSR. affected areas, the SPDC announced at the end of May that almost 98 per cent people took part in the referendum, and out of that 92.48 per cent voted in favour of the

The Indian Civil Nuclear Programme: Issues, Concerns, Opportunities Myanmar: Pangs of Democratic Transition

draft constitution. The adoption of the new constitution through a national When the result was announced, the referendum was the fourth step towards world saw the USDP winning the elec‐ democracy. The fifth step was to conduct a tion with 883 of the total 1154 parlia‐ national level election for the legislative mentary seats, that is, 76.5 per cent. bodies (national, regional and local) and On the other hand, the NUP won only the sixth was to convene the Hluttaws or 63 seats and NDF won only in 16 con‐ the Parliaments. stituencies.

II THE 2010 ELECTION

The 2010 election was based on the new constitution that was accepted in 2008. parties wanted to register for the election, Pro‐democracy and human rights activists but only 37 could fulfill the criterion fixed have raised questions over the by the UEC. One criteria for registering for transparency of this election and refused the election as a political party was that to accept the election, blaming it as neither the party needed to nominate candidates free nor fair. Suu Kyi and her party did not in at least three constituencies. Such participate in the election as many of the criteria could not be fulfilled by some NLD leaders were barred from political parties (Kudo 2011). There were participating in the election for several a total of 1,171 constituencies in the reasons. country, but as the UEC decided not to hold elections in some regions due to security According to the new constitution and the reasons, the number of constituencies was electoral principles, anyone who is or was reduced to 1,154 where election was held. married to any foreign nationals could not Approximately 29 million voters voted for participate in the elections; anyone who 3069 candidates. had faced imprisonment could not participate in the election, and the The USDP could manage to file 1,112 religious and rebel groups also could not candidates in the election, which was the take part in the elections (Hariharan highest among all parties. Some of the 2011). important members of USDP were Prime Minister Thein Sein as Chairman, General 37 parties including the government (retired) Shwe Mann, former Chief of funded, Union Solidarity and Development General Staff (Army, Navy, Air) as member, Party (USDP), National Unity Party and General (retired) Thiha Thura Tin (formed during Ne Win’s era), National Aung Myint Oo, the serving Secretary of Democratic Force (fraction of NLD), Shan the State Peace and Development Council Nationalities Democratic Party (SPDC) as member. participated in the election. Actually 47 IPCS Special Report 114, February 2012 IPCS Special Report 130, August 2012

The second largest candidates were from (76.7 per cent) in the House of NUP, which nominated 995 candidates. In Nationalities; and 495 of 661 seats (74.8 contrast, the NDF, which split from the per cent) in regional and state parliaments. NLD, could nominate only 162 candidates. On the other hand, the NUP won only 63 The other parties’ candidate numbers seats and NDF won only in 16 were even lower than NDF. The Myanmar constituencies (Thar 2010). government did not accept any international observers during the On 4 February 2011, the Presidential elections, media coverage was Electoral College, made up of all members insignificant, and certain restrictions were of the combined national legislatures, imposed on movement of the candidates selected Thein Sein, the former Prime and party members except the USDP Minister as the President of the Republic of members (Kudo 2011). The election Union of Myanmar. All the speaker and commission did not allow any party to deputy speaker positions in all legislatures lodge any complain against illegal advance were filled by the USDP members. The voting. The charge for filing complains was most important ministries such as the as high as US$ 1000 or one million Kyat border, home, defense and external affairs which was very high and unaffordable for were in the hands of the military many political parties. personnel. About one‐third of the ministers gained the same folios as they When the result was announced, the world had been controlling before the election saw the USDP winning the election with (International Crisis Group 2011). 883 of the total 1154 parliamentary seats, which amounted to 76.5 per cent of the Some encouraging changes took place seats. The USDP, led by Prime Minister amidst these predictable developments. Thein Sein, won 259 out of 325 (79.6 per The new education minister is a former cent) seats in the House of university rector, the health minister is a Representatives; 129 out of 168 seats former medical university rector, the hotel and tourism minister is a businessman and the minister for industrial development is the former head of the Myanmar chambers of commerce. Some developments have Some developments have taken place taken place towards decentralization. towards decentralization. The four‐ Fourteen regions or states have gained teen regions or states have gained their own legislatures with a local their own legislatures with a local government headed by chief ministers. On government headed by chief minis‐ 13 November 2010, Aung San Suu Kyi was ters. On 13 November 2010 Aung San released from house arrest. In all, she has Suu Kyi was released from house ar‐ spent 15 of last the 21 years in detention. rest. In all, she has spent 15 of last 21 years in detention. After her last release, she started reviving the NLD and involved herself in a lot of

Myanmar: Pangs of Democratic Transition

social welfare activities like digging wells, opening clinics and schools and so on. The soothing attitude of the two giant The last and seventh point in the road map economies in the region has undoubt‐ to democracy is to build a modern, edly empowered the military in Myan‐ developed and democratic nation by the mar to not to care for the western im‐ state leaders elected by the Hluttaw, and posed sanctions as it is gaining busi‐ the government and other central organs ness from all its neighbors. ASEAN as formed by the Hluttaw (Online Burma/ a collective also welcomed the elec‐ Myanmar library). Myanmar is functioning tion of 2010 by issuing a statement. in accordance to Than Shwe’s dream of a military dominated step‐by‐step approach towards democracy (Song, 2011). This step‐by‐step transition towards democracy is considered as best for On 4 November 2011, the People’s Daily Myanmar by its government. reported that China wants Myanmar to have a smooth election. It reported Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson III Hong Lei as saying, "We hope the election NEIGHBORS ON MYANMAR’S ELECTION runs smoothly and that Myanmar will constantly promote democracy and Myanmar is bordered on the north and development" (People’s Daily Online northeast by China, on the east and 2010). Two months before the election, southeast by Laos and Thailand, on the Senior General Than Shwe visited China south by the Andaman Sea and the Bay of and during his visit the then Foreign Bengal, and on the west by Bangladesh and Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu told the India. Myanmar’s strategic location and its media that "We hope that the international reserves of natural resources have given it community will provide constructive help an important position in the region. Most for Myanmar's [Burma's] upcoming of its neighbors such as China, India, election and avoid bringing negative effect Thailand and Singapore have their own to bear on Myanmar's political course and trading, commercial and security interests regional peace and stability" (BBC 2010 in Myanmar. That is why both India and a). China along with ASEAN, unlike the western countries, have adopted the BBC quoting the Deccan Herald of India policy of constructive engagement with the commented, “Several Western countries Generals in Myanmar, rather than to have rejected the election outright. Their charge them for being undemocratic. approach is wrong. They must use the China, in particular, has been on good opportunity the election has thrown up to terms with the Myanmar government engage with Myanmar's new government. since 1988. They must leverage to push it to release IPCS Special Report 130, August 2012

Aung San Suu Kyi and other political necessary for democracy and political prisoners. Isolating the generals has not freedom in Burma” (E Pao 2011). It is worked in bringing change in Myanmar; thus clear that both India and China perhaps engaging them positively will rid consider the 2010 election as an important the generals of their deep suspicion of the step towards democracy; while China does world” (BBC 2010 b). not hesitate to cheer Myanmar for holding its first election in last 20 years, India is a On 6 September 2011, one hundred and bit more concerned with the domestic four Indian Parliamentarians sent a letter human rights situation there and wants to to the ruling government of Myanmar develop an understanding between the urging release of almost 2000 political government and the pro‐democratic prisoners there. The statement said, “We, supporters in Myanmar through members of the Indian Parliamentarians' negotiations. In all, India does not want to Forum for Democracy in Burma (IPFDB), ‘hurt’ the Myanmar government. This would like to remind you that even after soothing attitude of the two giant the General Elections in November 2010 economies in the region has undoubtedly and despite hopes that the newly‐formed empowered the military in Myanmar to be government could tackle the issue of able to withstand the western imposed political prisoners, there is no amnesty for sanctions as it is gaining business from all them as many as 2000 are still detained in its neighbors. ASEAN also welcomed the jails. election of 2010 by issuing a statement. It expressed the hope that Myanmar would The release of leader Aung San continue to accelerate the process of Suu Kyi in last November has been a national reconciliation and welcome move. However, her release democratization, for the sake of country’s alone does not signify Burma's transition stability and development (ASEAN, 2010). to democracy. The release of the remaining 2000 political prisoners is important and IV

CONCLUDING REMARKS: RECENT TRENDS IN MYANMAR : THE POSITIVE MOVES

Since taking office in march 2011, the new Though the country gets lots of for‐ President, U Thein Sein has taken several eign investors in its oil and natural steps towards democratization. His gas fields, it ensures little benefit for government has freed a number of political the common people. Myanmar is rich prisoners and taken several steps to in resources, but it has been suffering liberalize the state‐controlled economy. from ‘resource curse’. Aung Saan Suu Kyi and her party could return to the politics of the country and participated in a Parliamentary election.

Myanmar: Pangs of Democratic Transition

Suu Kyi won a seat in the parliament with fewer resources (Humphreys et. El. 2007). her party having secured majority almost Any improvement from the current everywhere they participated. After her situation would require involvement and party won the election, Suu Kyi made participation of everybody concerned in a international tours covering neighbouring comprehensive and logical way. The countries like Thailand as well as far away government in Myanmar needs to countries like UK and France. This has understand that democratization and been her first foreign tour in last two decentralization would perhaps be helpful decades. Myanmar, after a long period of in exploring the resources in a rightful time played host to international leaders way. Here we may recall what Suu Kyi said like Hillary Clinton on her soil. In after her release, “What we want is value consequence of the transition towards change…Regime change can be temporary, democracy, Myanmar experienced some but value change is a long‐term business. relaxations over the sanctions previously We want the values in our country to be imposed by the US and other western changed. We want a sound foundation for countries. change. Even if there’s regime change, if these basic values have not changed, then Since 1962, Myanmar has been undergoing one regime change can lead to another several changes. The nationalization regime change and so on and so on” (New efforts of Ne Win were an unsuccessful York Times 2010). move which could not help the country in its development. Contrarily, it took the At the end, the question still remains common people towards more unsolved‐ at what speed should democracy deprivation. The successive eras of SLORC be restored in the country? The military and SPDC too could do little for the claims that swift and sudden changes in country’s development. In 2005, the ruling the political structure of the country may SPDC moved the country’s capital from fragment the nation, so what it needs is Yangon to Naypyitaw, a well‐decorated military supported democracy in a step‐by and beautiful place. But unfortunately this ‐step manner. On the other hand, the pro‐ is not the real picture everywhere in democratic supporters urge that it’s Myanmar. Though the country gets lots of already too late for restoration of foreign investors for its oil and natural gas democracy for the country that has been resources, it ensures little benefit for the facing authoritarian rule since last 48 common people. Myanmar is rich in years. Their expectations from the present resources, but it has been suffering from ‘civilian’ government are much higher. It is the ‘resource curse’. The concept of true that restoration of democracy in resource curse suggests that countries Myanmar has been more compounded by with large storages of natural resources the very fact of its neighbours’s appeasing often perform worse in terms of economic attitude towards the government of growth, social development and good Myanmar. Often enough the global political governance than other countries with leaders from other countries, especially IPCS Special Report 130, August 2012

the West have repeatedly urged India and democratic movement will win. Perhaps, China to react firmly against the previous peoples’ participation, negotiation and military government of Myanmar and patience are the three keywords of described the November 2010 election as a Myanmar’s democratic movement which hoax one. To quote Barack Obama, the can secure a better world for tomorrow. election “failed to meet any of the Finally, it should be noted that the internationally accepted standards transition to democracy, though being late, associated with legitimate is a welcome move and perhaps, Myanmar elections” (Wilson 2010). But the fact is should be given some more time for its that whatever the US and her allies from complete transformation. Chances are the western world have expressed as their there that Myanmar will represent a concern for the democratic rights of the unique model of political system where people of Myanmar is another example of authoritarian rulers and democratic diplomatic hypocrisy and nothing else. If leaders will be able to work jointly to their concerns were genuine, then how resolve the current socio‐economic have they been allowing investments in problems. The recently changed behavior the country? Companies like the US‐based of the government towards Daw Aung San Chevron and the French Total SA have Suu Kyi should not be overlooked and invested huge amounts of money in the oil definitely grows some optimism. and natural gas exploration in Myanmar and of course, their Governments are not unaware of their operations. Such games played by the international leaders were REFERENCES actually making profits for the government Abu Salah, Md. Yusuf. 2009. “Political of Myanmar and lessening the chance of developments in Myanmar: New restitution of democracy in the country. Constitution, International Concerns and Strategies of the Military.” BIISS Journal. 30 In the conclusion we may now remember (3): 314‐334. what Suu Kyi had said in 1999, “… I am not very happy with the word hope. I don’t ASEAN. 2010. “ASEAN Chair Issues Statement on Myanmar Elections”, 11 believe in people just hoping. We work for November, 2010. what we want. … one has no right to hope without endeavor, so we wok to try and BBC (2010 a) “China urges support for bring about the situation that is necessary Burma’s general election.”BBC, News Asia‐ for the country, and we are confident that Pacific. 7 September, 2010. we will get to the negotiation table at one BBC (2010 b) “Regional Press Encouraged time or another” (Time World, 1999). This by Burma Election.” 9 November 2010. implies her beliefs very clearly. She believes in peoples’ involvement in the E Pao (2011) “Calling for the release of All movement, she believes in negotiation and Political Prisoners towards National Reconciliation in Burma. Statement by the she believes that in one day or another the Indian Parliamentarians' Forum for

Myanmar: Pangs of Democratic Transition

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Kudo, Toshihiro (2011) “Results of the 2010 Elections in Myanmar: An Analysis.”

Southeast Asia Research Programme (SEARP_ Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies B‐7/3, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 110029 91‐11‐4100 1900 www.ipcs.org SEARP is supported by SAEA, Singapore