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Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition, Characteristics and Distribution

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Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition, Characteristics and Distribution Changing Demographics of Texas: Composition, Characteristics and Distribution Texas County & District Retirement System Austin, Texas July 28, 2016 @TexasDemography Overview • Texas demographics • Population growth • Race and ethnic trends • Migration • Aging population • Population projections 2 Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014 Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions) 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 st All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Population Growth, Texas, 1950-2010 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015 tl_2010_48_county10 Lipscomb Hansford Ochiltree Dallam Sherman POPESTIMATE2015 Moore Roberts Hartley Hutchinson Hemphill Gray 112 - 10,000 Oldham Potter Carson Wheeler Armstrong Collingsworth Deaf 10,001 - 50,000 Smith Randall Donley Parmer Castro Childress Swisher Hall Briscoe Hardeman 50,001 - 100,000 Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Floyd Motley Cottle Hale Foard Wichita Clay Montague Lubbock Dickens Grayson Red Lamar 100,001 - 500,000 Cochran King Knox Baylor Archer Fannin River Cooke Hockley Crosby Bowie Stonewall Haskell Young Delta Titus Jack Wise Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Throckmorton Denton Collin Hunt Franklin Morris Cass 500,001 - 4,538,028 Hopkins Borden Scurry Jones Shackelford Tarrant Rockwall Rains Camp Dawson Palo Wood Gaines Fisher Parker Dallas Upshur Marion Stephens Pinto Van Kaufman Harrison Nolan Hood Zandt Taylor Eastland Erath Johnson Smith Gregg Andrews Martin Howard Mitchell Ellis Somervell Callahan Comanche Henderson Rusk Panola Glasscock Hill Navarro Bosque Coke El Paso Loving Winkler Midland Runnels Anderson Cherokee Ector Sterling Brown Shelby Hamilton Freestone Ward Coleman McLennan Nacogdoches Hudspeth Crane Tom Mills Culberson Upton Coryell San Reagan Irion Green Concho Falls Leon Houston Reeves San Augustine McCulloch Lampasas Saba Bell Robertson Trinity Angelina Burnet Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Polk Jeff Pecos Crockett Milam Tyler Mason Llano Williamson Walker Davis Brazos San Jasper Grimes Sutton Kimble Burleson Jacinto Travis Gillespie Blanco Lee Montgomery Hardin Terrell Washington Orange Kerr Hays Bastrop Edwards Liberty Presidio Val Kendall Waller Fayette Austin Jefferson Brewster Verde Real Comal Caldwell Harris Bandera Chambers Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bexar Gonzales Bend Kinney Uvalde Medina Lavaca Galveston Wilson Wharton DeWitt Brazoria Zavala Maverick Karnes Jackson Frio Atascosa Matagorda Goliad Victoria Live Calhoun Dimmit Bee La Salle Oak Refugio McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Nueces Wells Kleberg Jim Brooks Hogg Zapata Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates 5 Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015 tl_2010_48_county10 NPOPCH1015 99 counties lost -1,913 - 0 population over the five year period. 1 - 1,000 1,001 - 20,000 20,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 444,952 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage. 6 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015 tl_2010_48_county10 PctPOPCH1015 -14.9% - 0% 0.1% - 2.5% 2.6% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 36.6% 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2014-2015 Percent of Percent Percent U.S. Rank Population Change from Change Change from County Population Change Natural from International Change Increase Migration Migration Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0% Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0% Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2% Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0% Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5% Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8% Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7% Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9% Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7% Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9% *Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 2014-2015 Percent Percent Percent Change Change from County U.S. Population from International Rank Change Migration Migration Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9% Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1% Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5% Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7% Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9% Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7% Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1% Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2% Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8% Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2% Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2% Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4% Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6% Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7% *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates Percent Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 and 2014 2000 2014 NH Asian 4% NH Asian NH Black NH Black 3% 12% NH Other 11% 2% NH Other 2% NH White NH White 43% 52% Hispanic or Hispanic or Latino Latino 32% 39% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census, SF1 and Population Estimates, 2104 10 Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014 250,000 White (non-Hispanic) 200,000 Hispanic 150,000 Population 100,000 50,000 0 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 12 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 13 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 14 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 58.5% 89.5% 86.7% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 41.5% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates The 10 U.S. States with the Largest Average Annual Net Domestic Migration by Rank, 2005-2013 Tennessee 24,684 Oregon 25,422 Washington 27,763 Colorado 33,504 South Carolina 38,189 Georgia 48,050 Arizona 53,863 North Carolina 67,501 Florida 69,801 Texas 125,778 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015 16 Components of Population Change for the Top Five Growth States, 2013-14 239,104 129,228 250,852 250,116 208,391 46,924 56,209 53,832 27,465 35,120 Texas California Florida Georgia Arizona Natural Increase Net Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015 17 Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013 18 Percent of Housing Units Built Before 1960, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom Percent of Housing Units Built Between 1960 and 1999, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom 20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample Percent of Housing Units Built After 1999, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom Estimated number of persons aged 65 years and older, Texas Counties, 2010-2014 tl_2010_48_county10 Pop65P Lipscomb Hansford Ochiltree Dallam Sherman 6 - 4,999 Moore Roberts Hartley Hutchinson Hemphill Gray 5,000 - 14,999 Oldham Potter Carson Wheeler Armstrong Collingsworth Deaf 15,000 - 29,999 Smith Randall Donley Parmer Castro Childress Swisher Hall Briscoe Hardeman 30,000 - 74,999 Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Floyd Motley Cottle Hale Foard Wichita Clay Montague Lubbock Dickens Grayson
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