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Demographics of Texas and the Aging of the Population

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Demographics of Texas and the Aging of the Population Demographics of Texas and the Aging of the Population JLL International Real Estate Dallas, TX February 22, 2018 @TexasDemography Texas is experiencing significant growth. Growing States, 2000‐2017 Numeric Percent 2000 2010 2017 Change Change Population Population Population 2010‐2017 2010‐2017 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,961,073 5.49% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,158,496 12.56% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,135 6.13% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,179,806 11.59% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,429,379 740,689 7.65% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,698 7.74% Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,198 10.13% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,016,270 623,961 9.76% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates. 3 Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Tarrant Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Tay l or ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Cherokee Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane To m Gr ee n Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Ter r el l Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston 113 - 10,000 Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda 10,001 - 50,000 Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun La Salle Live Oak Refugio 50,001 - 100,000 San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb Duval Nueces 100,001 - 500,000 Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy 500,001 - 4,589,928 Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill 96 counties lost population Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler over the 6 year period. Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Ter r y Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Tarrant Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Tay l o r ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Cherokee Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane To m Gr ee n Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Ter r el l Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson -2,010 - 0 Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun 1 - 1,000 La Salle Live Oak Refugio San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb 1,001 - 20,000 Duval Nueces Kleberg 20,001 - 100,000 Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr Willacy 100,001 - 497,469 Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates 5 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Ta r ra n t Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Ta y l o r ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Cherokee Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Tom Gree n Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Terrell Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt -4.8% - 0% Jackson Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun 0.1% - 2.5% La Salle Live Oak Refugio San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb 2.6% - 5% Duval Nueces Kleberg Zapata Brooks 5.1% - 10% Jim Hogg Kenedy Starr Willacy 10.1% - 18.1% Hidalgo Cameron 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950‐2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 58.5% 89.5% 86.7% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 41.5% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015‐2016 2015‐2016 Percent Percent Percent Change from Change from County U.S. Population Domestic International Rank Change Migration Migration Kendall 2 5.2% 95.9% 4.0% Hays 3 5.1% 82.2% 1.8% Comal 6 4.4% 88.5% 2.0% Williamson 14 4.1% 74.1% 5.6% Fort Bend 18 3.8% 59.4% 15.8% Montgomery 24 3.7% 73.5% 8.0% Rockwall 25 3.6% 82.2% 2.5% Denton 28 3.6% 67.1% 9.0% Kaufman 36 3.4% 81.3% 2.2% Bastrop 42 3.1% 83.5% 0.7% Ellis 50 3.1% 78.1% 2.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates. 8 *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015‐2016 Percent of Percent Change U.S. Rank Population Change from Percent Change from County Population Change Natural from Domestic International Change Increase Migration Migration Harris 2 56,587 79.9% ‐27.9% 48.1% Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9% Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1% Dallas 9 29,209 79.9% ‐20.9% 41.0% Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0% Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8% Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5% Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5% Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6% Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0% Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% ‐33.4% 19.9% Hidalgo County had negative net migration (‐13.5% of total population growth). 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates. Estimated Percent of Total Net‐Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015 25.0% 22.1% 20.0% 15.0% 13.2% 10.4% 10.0% 9.5% 7.1% 5.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.5% 0.0% ‐0.3% ‐0.1% ‐2.9% ‐2.9% ‐2.8% ‐2.5% ‐5.0% ‐3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015 Texas continues to diversify. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2016 2000 2010 Hispanic, 32% 2016 NH White, 53% Hispanic, 38% NH White, 45% NH Other, NH Black, 1% 11% NH Asian, Hispanic, 39% NH White, 3% 43% NH Other, NH Black, 2% 12% NH Asian, 4% NH Black, 12% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates 11 Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other TEXAS 43.0% 11.8% 38.8% 4.6% 1.8% Denton County 60.9% 9.3% 19.2% 8.0% 2.6% Collin County 59.4% 9.4% 15.2% 13.4% 2.7% Travis County 49.5% 8.0% 33.9% 6.4% 2.1% Tarrant County 48.6% 15.6% 28.2% 5.3% 2.4% Fort Bend County 34.6% 20.1% 24.1% 19.2% 1.9% Harris County 31.0% 18.5% 42.0% 7.0% 1.6% Dallas County 30.6% 22.3% 39.5% 6.0% 1.6% Bexar County 28.7% 7.3% 59.5% 2.7% 1.7% El Paso County 13.1% 3.2% 81.3% 1.2% 1.2% Hidalgo County 7.0% 0.5% 91.3% 1.0% 0.2% Source: U.S.
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