Demographics of and the Aging of the Population

JLL International Real Estate , TX February 22, 2018

@TexasDemography Texas is experiencing significant growth. Growing States, 2000‐2017

Numeric Percent 2000 2010 2017 Change Change Population Population Population 2010‐2017 2010‐2017 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,961,073 5.49% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,158,496 12.56%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,135 6.13% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,179,806 11.59% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,429,379 740,689 7.65%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,698 7.74%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,198 10.13%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,016,270 623,961 9.76%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates. 3 Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016

Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill

Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler

Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong

Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wilbarger Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Tarrant Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Tay l or ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan To m Gr ee n Leon Angelina Irion Concho Falls San SabaLampasas Trinity McCulloch Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Schleicher Polk TylerJasperNewton Jeff Davis Pecos Menard Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Ter r el l Blanco Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston 113 - 10,000 Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda 10,001 - 50,000 Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun La Salle Live Oak Refugio

50,001 - 100,000 San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb Duval Nueces 100,001 - 500,000 Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy 500,001 - 4,589,928 Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016

Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill 96 counties lost population

Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler over the 6 year period.

Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong

Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Wilbarger Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Ter r y Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Tarrant Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Tay l o r ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Cherokee Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane To m Gr ee n Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls San SabaLampasas Trinity McCulloch Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Ter r el l Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson -2,010 - 0 Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun 1 - 1,000 La Salle Live Oak Refugio

San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb 1,001 - 20,000 Duval Nueces Kleberg

20,001 - 100,000 Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy

Starr Willacy 100,001 - 497,469 Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates 5 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016

Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill

Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler

Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong

Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCookeGraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Yo ung Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Ta r ra n t Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison HoodJohnson Smith Andrews Martin Mitchell Eastland Ellis Nolan Ta y l o r ErathSomervell Henderson Panola Howard Callahan Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Loving Glasscock Comanche Bosque Cherokee Shelby Winkler Ector Midland Sterling Coke Anderson RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Tom Gree n Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Terrell Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt -4.8% - 0% Jackson Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun 0.1% - 2.5% La Salle Live Oak Refugio

San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb 2.6% - 5% Duval Nueces Kleberg

Zapata Brooks 5.1% - 10% Jim Hogg Kenedy

Starr Willacy 10.1% - 18.1% Hidalgo Cameron 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950‐2010

Migration Natural Increase

10.5% 13.3%

34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 58.5%

89.5% 86.7%

65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 41.5%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015‐2016

2015‐2016 Percent Percent Percent Change from Change from County U.S. Population Domestic International Rank Change Migration Migration Kendall 2 5.2% 95.9% 4.0% Hays 3 5.1% 82.2% 1.8% Comal 6 4.4% 88.5% 2.0% Williamson 14 4.1% 74.1% 5.6% Fort Bend 18 3.8% 59.4% 15.8% Montgomery 24 3.7% 73.5% 8.0% Rockwall 25 3.6% 82.2% 2.5% Denton 28 3.6% 67.1% 9.0% Kaufman 36 3.4% 81.3% 2.2% Bastrop 42 3.1% 83.5% 0.7% Ellis 50 3.1% 78.1% 2.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates. 8 *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015‐2016

Percent of Percent Change U.S. Rank Population Change from Percent Change from County Population Change Natural from Domestic International Change Increase Migration Migration Harris 2 56,587 79.9% ‐27.9% 48.1% Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9% Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1% Dallas 9 29,209 79.9% ‐20.9% 41.0% Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0% Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8% Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5% Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5% Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6% Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0% Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% ‐33.4% 19.9% Hidalgo County had negative net migration (‐13.5% of total population growth).

9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates. Estimated Percent of Total Net‐Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015

25.0% 22.1%

20.0%

15.0% 13.2%

10.4% 10.0% 9.5% 7.1% 5.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.5%

0.0% ‐0.3% ‐0.1%

‐2.9% ‐2.9% ‐2.8% ‐2.5% ‐5.0% ‐3.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015 Texas continues to diversify. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2016

2000

2010

Hispanic, 32% 2016 NH White, 53% Hispanic, 38% NH White, 45% NH Other, NH Black, 1% 11% NH Asian, Hispanic, 39% NH White, 3% 43% NH Other, NH Black, 2% 12% NH Asian, 4% NH Black, 12% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2016 Population Estimates 11 Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other TEXAS 43.0% 11.8% 38.8% 4.6% 1.8% Denton County 60.9% 9.3% 19.2% 8.0% 2.6% Collin County 59.4% 9.4% 15.2% 13.4% 2.7% Travis County 49.5% 8.0% 33.9% 6.4% 2.1% Tarrant County 48.6% 15.6% 28.2% 5.3% 2.4% Fort Bend County 34.6% 20.1% 24.1% 19.2% 1.9% Harris County 31.0% 18.5% 42.0% 7.0% 1.6% Dallas County 30.6% 22.3% 39.5% 6.0% 1.6% Bexar County 28.7% 7.3% 59.5% 2.7% 1.7% El Paso County 13.1% 3.2% 81.3% 1.2% 1.2% Hidalgo County 7.0% 0.5% 91.3% 1.0% 0.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates 12 Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non‐Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

14 Annual Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005‐2015

2005 69.4% 17.3% 7.8% 5.5%

2006 66.8% 19.9% 5.7% 7.6%

2007 61.0% 22.4% 6.2% 10.4%

2008 57.0% 28.2% 7.8% 7.0%

2009 59.0% 26.8% 7.7% 6.5%

2010 50.6% 33.0% 7.3% 9.1%

2011 57.4% 25.5% 9.9% 7.2%

2012 50.9% 34.3% 7.1% 7.8%

2013 42.9% 40.4% 9.0% 7.8%

2014 48.6% 33.6% 8.3% 9.5%

2015 44.1% 35.8% 7.1% 13.1%

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS 15 Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015

16 Texas is young, but aging. States with the Oldest and Youngest Median Ages, 2000, 2010, 2014

2000 2010 2014 Rank State Med Age Rank State Median Age Rank State Median Age 1 38.9 1Maine 42.7 1 44.2 2 Florida 38.7 2Vermont 41.5 2 42.6 3 Maine 38.6 3 West Virginia 41.3 3 42.6 4 38 4New Hampshire 41.1 4 West Virginia 42.0 5… Vermont 37.7 5… Florida 40.7 5… Florida 41.8 …46 33.3 …46 California 35.2 …46 35.7

47 Idaho 33.2 47 Idaho 34.6 47 34.9

48 Alaska 32.4 48 Alaska 33.8 48 Texas 34.2 49 Texas 32.3 49 Texas 33.6 49 Alaska 33.3 50 Utah 27.1 50 Utah 29.2 50 Utah 30.5 ‐ United States 35.3 ‐ United States 37.2 ‐ United States 37.7 Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses US Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State

18 Median Age, Texas Counties, 2012‐2016

Hansford Ochiltree Dallam Sherman Lipscomb Hemphill Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Oldham Potter Gray Wheeler Carson Deaf Donley Smith Randall Castro Armstrong Collingsworth Swisher Parmer Hall Childress Briscoe Hardeman Bailey Hale Lamb Floyd Cottle Wilbarger Motley Foard Wichita Lubbock Clay Cooke Grayson Lamar Red Hockley Dickens BaylorArcher King Knox Montague Fannin River Bowie Cochran Crosby Delta Terry Kent Throckmorton Jack Collin Hopkins Titus Cass Wise Denton Hunt Yoakum Lynn Garza Haskell Young Morris Rockwall Rains Camp Dawson Stonewall Shackelford Marion Palo Parker Tarrant Kaufman Wood Upshur Borden Scurry Jones Stephens Gaines Pinto Van Harrison Fisher Dallas Smith Gregg Howard Callahan Hood Johnson Zandt Mitchell Tayl or Rusk Andrews Martin Eastland Somervell Ellis Henderson Panola Nolan Erath Cherokee El Paso Loving Ector Glasscock Hill Navarro Shelby Runnels Comanche Anderson Culberson Midland Coke Bosque Winkler Sterling Coleman Brown Freestone Crane Hamilton McLennan Nacogdoches Hudspeth Ward Reagan Houston San Augustine To m Mills Limestone Upton Concho Coryell Leon Angelina Sabine Reeves Irion Green Falls McCulloch San Trinity Lampasas Bell Robertson Madison Saba Polk Jasper Schleicher Menard Burnet Pecos Llano Milam Walker Tyler Jeff Davis Crockett Mason Brazos San Williamson Grimes Newton Sutton Kimble Burleson Jacinto Hardin 26-32 Gillespie Lee Montgomery Blanco Travis Orange Terrel l Edwards Washington Waller Presidio Kerr Kendall Hays Liberty Bastrop Harris Jefferson Brewster Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Fayette Austin Bandera Guadalupe Fort Chambers Colorado 33-36 Uvalde Bexar Gonzales Bend Galveston Kinney Medina Lavaca Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Atascosa Frio Karnes Victoria Matagorda 37-40 McMullen Goliad Calhoun Dimmit La Live Bee Refugio Salle Oak Jim Wells Aransas Webb Nueces Duval 41-45 Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Kenedy Hogg

46-58 Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates 19 Texas Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2014

2000 2010 2014 2000‐2014 Absolute Percent Population Percent Population Percent Estimate Percent Change Change

Under 18 5,886,759 28.2 6,865,824 27.3 7,115,614 26.4 1,228,855 20.9 18 to 64 12,892,529 61.8 15,677,851 62.3 16,742,263 62.1 3,849,734 29.9 65 and Older 2,072,532 9.9 2,601,886 10.3 3,099,081 11.5 1,026,549 49.5 Total 20,851,820 100 25,145,561 100 26,956,958 100 6,105,138 29.3 Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses, QT‐P1 and derived from QT‐P1

20 Population Projections by Age Group, 2010 to 2050

2010‐2050 Age Group 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Percent Change 65 and Older 2,601,886 4,014,083 5,929,471 7,583,385 9,442,865 262.9 65‐69 853,100 1,375,699 1,779,930 2,019,401 2,519,575 195.3 70‐74 619,156 1,081,697 1,569,556 1,747,404 2,136,439 245.1 75‐79 477,245 714,641 1,181,376 1,568,513 1,830,330 283.5 80‐84 347,206 440,399 794,965 1,186,724 1,365,653 293.3 85+ 205,501 401,647 603,644 1,061,343 1,590,868 421.3 Total Population 25,145,561 30,541,978 37,155,084 44,955,896 54,369,297 116.2

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census Texas State Data Center, 2014 Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

21 Population 65 years plus, Texas Counties, 2012‐2016

Hansford Ochiltree Dallam Sherman Lipscomb Hemphill Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Oldham Potter Gray Wheeler Carson Deaf Donley Smith Randall Castro Armstrong Collingsworth Swisher Parmer Hall Childress Briscoe Hardeman Bailey Hale Lamb Floyd Cottle Wilbarger Motley Foard Wichita Lubbock Clay Cooke Grayson Lamar Red Hockley Dickens BaylorArcher King Knox Montague Fannin River Bowie Cochran Crosby Delta Ter ry Kent Throckmorton Jack Collin Hopkins Titus Cass Wise Denton Hunt Yoakum Lynn Garza Haskell Young Morris Rockwall Rains Camp Dawson Stonewall Shackelford Marion Palo Parker Tar ra nt Kaufman Wood Upshur Borden Scurry Jones Stephens Gaines Pinto Van Harrison Fisher Dallas Smith Gregg Howard Callahan Hood Johnson Zandt Mitchell Tayl o r Rusk Andrews Martin Eastland Somervell Ellis Henderson Panola Nolan Erath Cherokee El Paso Loving Ector Glasscock Hill Navarro Shelby Runnels Comanche Anderson Culberson Midland Coke Bosque Winkler Sterling Coleman Brown Freestone Crane Hamilton McLennan Nacogdoches Hudspeth Ward Reagan Houston San Augustine To m Mills Limestone Upton Concho Coryell Leon Angelina Sabine Reeves Irion Green Falls McCulloch San Trinity Lampasas Bell Robertson Madison Saba Polk Jasper Schleicher Menard Burnet Pecos Llano Milam Walker Tyler Jeff Davis Crockett Mason Brazos San Williamson Grimes Newton Sutton Kimble Burleson Jacinto Hardin Gillespie Lee Montgomery Less than 5,000 Blanco Travis Orange Ter re l l Edwards Washington Waller Presidio Kerr Kendall Hays Liberty Bastrop Harris Jefferson Brewster Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Fayette Austin Bandera Guadalupe Fort Chambers Colorado 5,000 - 14,999 Uvalde Bexar Gonzales Bend Galveston Kinney Medina Lavaca Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Atascosa Frio Karnes Victoria Matagorda 15,000 - 29,999 McMullen Goliad Calhoun Dimmit La Live Bee Refugio Salle Oak Jim Wells Aransas Webb Nueces 30,000 - 74,999 Duval Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Kenedy 75,000 or More Hogg Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates 22 Percent of Population 65 Years Plus, Texas Counties, 2011‐2015

Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill

Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler

Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong

Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay LamarRed River CochranHockley CrosbyDickens King Baylor Archer MontagueCooke GraysonFannin Knox Bowie Lubbock Delta Titus Jack Wise Denton Collin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Young Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Marion Dallas WoodUpshur Gaines DawsonBorden Scurry Fisher Jones Stephens Parker Tarran t Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison Hood Smith Eastland Johnson Ellis Andrews MartinHowardMitchell Nolan Ta y l o r Panola Callahan ErathSomervell Henderson Rusk Navarro El Paso Hill Glasscock Comanche LovingWinkler Ector Midland Coke Bosque AndersonCherokee Shelby Sterling Brown RunnelsColeman Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Hudspeth McLennanLimestone Culberson Ward Mills San AugustineSabine Crane Tom Green Coryell Reeves Upton Reagan Leon Houston Angelina Irion Concho Falls Lampasas Trinity McCullochSan Saba Bell RobertsonMadison Burnet Newton Schleicher Menard Polk TylerJasper Jeff Davis Pecos Milam Walker Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Montgomery Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Terrel l Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Hays Bastrop Waller Liberty Edwards Kerr Jefferson Kendall Fayette Austin Harris Val Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Brewster Bandera Colorado Guadalupe Fort Bend Bexar GonzalesLavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson 8% - 10% DeWitt Jackson Atascosa Karnes Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun 11% - 15% La Salle Live Oak Refugio

San PatricioAransas Jim Wells Webb 16% - 20% Duval Nueces Kleberg

Zapata Brooks 21% - 25% Jim Hogg Kenedy

Starr Willacy 26% - 34% Hidalgo Cameron 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates Change in Median Age, Texas Counties, 2000‐2014

Lipscomb Dallam Hansford Ochiltree Sherman Hutchinson Hemphill Hartley Roberts Moore Change in Median Age, 2000-2014 Gray Oldham Potter Carson Wheeler 1 to 5 Years Younger (27 Counties) Armstrong Deaf Collingsworth Smith Randall Donley No Change (57 Counties) Swisher Briscoe Childress Parmer Castro Hall Hardeman Lamb Wilbarger Bailey Hale Cottle 2 to 3 Years Older (100 Counties) Floyd Motley Foard Wichita Clay Crosby Dickens Grayson Lamar Red Lubbock Cooke Cochran King Knox Baylor Archer River Montague Fannin Bowie 4 to 5 Years Older (49 Counties) Hockley Delta Throckmorton Franklin Te rry Stonewall Lynn Jack Wise Denton Collin Hopkins Titus Cass Yoakum Garza Kent Haskell Young Hunt Morris Rains Camp Dawson Palo Rockwall Greater than 5 Years Older (21 Counties) Scurry Shackelford Dallas Marion Pinto Parker Ta rra n t Wood Upshur Gaines Fisher Borden Jones Stephens Kaufman Harrison Johnson Van Gregg Callahan Hood Zandt Smith Eastland Ellis Panola Andrews Martin Howard Mitchell Nolan Ta yl or Henderson Erath Somervell Rusk Navarro El Paso Ector Glasscock Coleman Hill Cherokee Winkler Bosque Loving Coke Comanche Freestone Shelby Midland Sterling Runnels Brown Hamilton Anderson Nacogdoches Sabine Hudspeth Culberson Upton Reagan McLennan San Ward To m Mills Crane McCulloch Coryell Limestone Houston Augustine Green Leon Reeves Irion Concho Falls Angelina Newton San Lampasas Trinity Saba Bell Robertson Madison Jasper Burnet Polk Schleicher Menard Tyler Jeff Pecos Crockett Milam Walker Davis Mason Llano Williamson Brazos San Jacinto Sutton Burleson Grimes Kimble Hardin Lee Montgomery Gillespie Washington Te rr el l Blanco Travis Orange Waller Liberty Presidio Kerr Kendall Bastrop Edwards Hays Austin Jefferson Val Fayette Harris Brewster Verde Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Bandera Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bend Bexar Gonzales Lavaca Galveston Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Victoria Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Matagorda Jackson Goliad McMullen Calhoun La Salle Dimmit Live Bee Refugio Oak Jim San Aransas Wells Patricio Webb Nueces Duval Kleberg

Jim Brooks Zapata Hogg Kenedy

Starr Willacy Source: US Census Bureau US Census Bureau, 2000 Hidalgo Decennial Census, SF‐1, Population Estimates 2014 Vintage. Cameron 24 Trends in Aging* by County, Texas, 2000‐2014

*2000 median age 30 and greater = old. 2000 to 2014 determines aging. 25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 decennial census and 2014 American Community Survey 5‐Yr estimates. Percent of Population 65 plus with Independent Living Disability, Texas Counties, 2012‐2016

Sherman Ochiltree Dallam Hansford Lipscomb Roberts Hemphill Hartley Moore Hutchinson Wheeler Oldham Carson Gray Potter Collingsworth Deaf Randall Smith Donley Armstrong Parmer Swisher Hall Childress Castro Briscoe Hardeman Wilbarger Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Cottle Clay Red Foard Wichita Cooke King Grayson Lamar River Cochran Lubbock Dickens Knox Archer Montague Bowie Yoakum Hockley Crosby Baylor Fannin Delta Kent Haskell Jack Denton Te rry Lynn Young Collin Titus Stonewall Wise Hunt Hopkins Cass Garza Throckmorton Rains Scurry Palo Dallas Wood Marion Gaines Borden Stephens Parker Jones Pinto Van Upshur Dawson Tarrant Harrison Nolan Taylor Eastland Hood Zandt Smith Andrews Martin Johnson Ellis Rusk Panola Mitchell Erath Somervell Henderson Howard Callahan Navarro Cherokee El Paso Loving Coke Bosque Hill Shelby Ector MidlandSterling Anderson Winkler Runnels Coleman Limestone Glasscock Comanche Nacogdoches Culberson Crane McLennan Freestone Hudspeth Ward To m Concho BrownMills Houston San Augustine Upton Irion Green Coryell Leon Sabine Reeves San Falls Trinity Angelina Reagan McCulloch Lampasas Saba Burnet Robertson Madison Jasper Schleicher Bell Polk Pecos Crockett Menard Llano Milam Brazos Walker Jeff Davis Williamson Tyler Newton Mason Burleson San Jacinto Sutton Grimes Liberty Kimble Gillespie Travis Hardin Te r re l l Washington Montgomery Orange Edwards Hays Bastrop Austin Presidio Val Verde Kerr Kendall Harris Jefferson Brewster Fayette Waller Real Bandera Comal Caldwell Chambers 10% or Less Guadalupe Colorado Fort Uvalde Bexar Gonzales Bend Galveston Kinney Medina Lavaca Wharton Wilson DeWitt Jackson Brazoria 10.1% - 15% Maverick Zavala Frio Victoria Matagorda Atascosa Live Goliad Oak Calhoun Dimmit La Bee Refugio Salle McMullen 15.1% - 25% Jim San Aransas Wells Patricio Webb Duval Nueces 25.1% - 35% Kleberg Jim Brooks Zapata Hogg Kenedy Greater than 35% Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates 26 27 28 Population Projections Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050

60 55 Zero Net Migration Half 2000 ‐2010 50 2000 ‐2010 45 2010 ‐2015 40

Millions 35 30 25 20

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections 30 Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2020

31 Zero Net Migration 30 Half 2000 ‐2010 29 2000 ‐2010 2010 ‐2015 28 Estimates 27 Millions

26

25

24

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2016 Preliminary Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Population Estimates 31 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010‐2050

35,000,000

30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000 NH‐White NH‐Black 15,000,000 Hispanic 10,000,000 NH‐Other

5,000,000

0

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario 32 Population by Age Group and as Percent of the Total Texas Population, 1950‐2050

45 40% 40 35% 35 30% 30 25% 25 20% 20

in Millions 15% 15 10 10% Percent of Total Population 5 5% 0 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total Percent under 18 Percent 65 and over

Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario 33 Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010‐2050

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000 NH White 2,000,000 NH Black

1,500,000 Hispanic NH Other 1,000,000

500,000

0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario 34 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1980 to 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Projections, Half Migration Scenario 35 Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Age Groups, 2010 and 2050

2010 2050

100% 100%

90% 90% 20.5 80% % NH White 80% 70% 70% 42 60% 60% % Black 50% 50%

40% 40% % Hispanic 67.7 Percent of Age Group 30% 30% Percentage of Age Group

20% 20% % NH Other 35 10% 10%

0% 0% Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over 0‐17 Years 18‐64 Years 65 Years and Older Age Groups Age Groups

Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, 2014 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2014 Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

36 Lila Valencia, Ph.D.

Office: (512) 936‐3542 [email protected] demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography

37