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Towards a Global Climate Regime Priority Areas for a Coherent Eu Strategy

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Towards a Global Climate Regime Priority Areas for a Coherent Eu Strategy TOWARDS A GLOBAL CLIMATE REGIME PRIORITY AREAS FOR A COHERENT EU STRATEGY CHAIRMEN: BO KJELLÉN, FORMER CHIEF CLIMATE NEGOTIATOR, SWEDEN; SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW, STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE AND VISITING FELLOW, TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH CHARLES NICHOLSON, GROUP SENIOR ADVISOR, BP DAVID HONE, GROUP CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISOR, SHELL RAPPORTEURS: CHRISTIAN EGENHOFER SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW, CEPS LOUISE VAN SCHAIK, RESEARCH FELLOW, CEPS CEPS gratefully acknowledges financial support for the work of this Task Force received from the CLIPORE Programme of the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra). CEPS TASK FORCE REPORT NO. 55 MAY 2005 This report is based on discussions in the CEPS Task Force on “Towards a Coherent EU Climate Strategy beyond Kyoto: How the EU Can Provide International Leadership”, which ran from September 2004 until April 2005. Participants in this CEPS Task Force included senior executives from a broad range of industry – including energy production and supply companies, energy-intensive industries and service companies – and representatives from business associations and environmental NGOs. A full list of members and invited guests and speakers appears in Annex 2. The members of the Task Force engaged in extensive debates in the course of several meetings and submitted comments on earlier drafts of this report. Its contents contain the general tone and direction of the discussion, but its recommendations do not necessarily reflect a full common position agreed among all members of the Task Force, nor do they necessarily represent the views of the institutions to which the members belong. ISBN 92-9079-566-2 © Copyright 2005, Centre for European Policy Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 Fax: (32.2) 219.41.51 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.ceps.be Contents Preface by the Chairmen ............................................................................................................. i Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................iii Introduction................................................................................................................................. 1 1. Climate change ....................................................................................................................... 2 2. Greenhouse gases and their sources ..................................................................................... 4 3. Growth, development, energy demand and climate objectives.......................................... 7 4. Preconditions for meeting climate objectives .................................................................... 10 4.1 Research and technology................................................................................................ 10 4.2 Technology diffusion and transfer ................................................................................. 12 4.3 Aligning climate policy with capital cycles ................................................................... 12 4.4 Public infrastructure....................................................................................................... 13 4.5 Synergies ........................................................................................................................ 13 4.6 Policy coherence............................................................................................................. 14 5. Concrete reduction options ................................................................................................. 15 5.1 Energy efficiency ........................................................................................................... 15 5.2 Transport ........................................................................................................................ 16 5.3 Power sector................................................................................................................... 18 5.3.1 Increased thermal and carbon efficiency in the power sector ............................. 18 5.3.2 Renewables........................................................................................................... 19 5.3.3 Carbon capture and storage ................................................................................ 19 5.3.4 Nuclear................................................................................................................. 20 5.4 Buildings and houses...................................................................................................... 21 5.5 Developing the EU ETS further ..................................................................................... 22 5.6 Product substitution........................................................................................................ 23 6. Implications for international climate change negotiations ............................................. 23 6.1 The post-2012 architecture and the Kyoto Protocol....................................................... 25 6.2 Edging towards a post-2012 architecture ....................................................................... 25 6.3 Six elements of a post-2012 architecture........................................................................ 26 6.3.1 Nature of commitments ........................................................................................ 27 6.3.2 Flexible mechanisms............................................................................................ 27 6.3.3 Adaptation............................................................................................................ 28 6.3.4 Technology approaches ....................................................................................... 28 6.3.5 Domestic measures .............................................................................................. 28 6.3.6 Institutional framework........................................................................................ 28 7. Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................ 29 References .................................................................................................................................. 30 Annex 1 Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations...................................................................... 35 Annex 2 List of Task Force Members and Invited Guests and Speakers ............................ 39 List of Figures 1. Global greenhouse gas sources............................................................................................... 4 2. A comparison of greenhouse gas sources: developed, developing and least developed countries.................................................................................................................................. 5 3. Sectoral emissions EU in 2002 ............................................................................................... 6 4. Sectoral CO2 emissions in the EU-15 with electricity-related emissions allocated to end-use sectors ....................................................................................................................... 6 5. Achieving an acceptable CO2 stabilisation............................................................................. 7 List of Tables 1. Conditions for stabilising CO2 concentrations........................................................................ 3 2. The challenge: 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions reduction per year requires Reductions to achieve 550 ppm stabilisation (-22 Gt CO2 by 2100)...................................... 8 3. Reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions in the alternative scenario compared to the reference scenario by contributing factor in the period 2002-30.......................................... 15 4. Actual and technical potential of the EPB Directive (in Mt CO2)........................................ 22 List of Boxes 1. Climate change: Some examples of expected impact on social, economic and natural systems.................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Possible options to achieve 20% CO2 reductions by 2025 in the EU (example).................... 8 3. Reducing the costs of mitigation and adaptation .................................................................... 9 4. Principal requirements of a global climate change agreement: A stylised overview ........... 24 5. Different approaches for post-2012 ...................................................................................... 26 Preface by the Chairmen limate change is increasingly recognised as a serious threat to the future of our societies. Furthermore, it is seen as part of a broader pattern of global change, caused by human C activity. Some scientists maintain that we are living in a new geological era, the Anthropocene. Given the impact of climate change policies on core sectors of our economies, in particular energy and transport, the challenges associated with climate change policy
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