Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter

September 2016

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Citation: Laffoley, D. & Baxter, J. M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences. Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. 456 pp. Individual chapters within this report should be referenced as: Author(s). 2016. Title of chapter. In: Laffoley, D., & Baxter, J.M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences. Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. pp. xxx.

ISBN: 978-2-8317-1806-4

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2016.08.en

Cover photos: Clockwise from top: King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) on Middle Beach (Brothers Point in distance), Macquarie Island, Southern Ocean. (© Robbie Kilpatrick/Australian Antarctic Division, November 2015, Image RS31770,Image Antarctica); a colony of black coral with small crabs moving amongst the branches (image courtesy of Department of BIS, UK); seagrass (Zostera marina) © SNH/Ben James; Hurricane Catarina on March 26th, 2004, off SE Brazil. Image courtesy of NASA.

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Available from: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Global Marine and Polar Programme (GMPP) Rue Mauverney 28 1196 Gland Switzerland Tel +41 22 999 0000 Fax +41 22 999 0002 [email protected] www.iucn.org/resources/publications The cascading efects of 2 -related changes in the ocean

A.K. Magnana, J.-P. Gattusob,a a Institute for sustainable development and international relations, Sciences Po, France b Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS-INSU, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche-sur-mer, France

Summary

• The ocean moderates anthropogenic by absorbing signifcant parts of the heat and CO2 that accumulate in the atmosphere. The ocean also receives all water from melting ice. • This regulating function happens at the cost of profound alterations of the ocean’s physics and chemistry, especially leading to ocean warming and acidifcation, and consequently sea-level rise. • These changes signifcantly affect the ocean’s ecology (organisms and habitats) and, consequently, ecosystem services and coastal human societies (e.g. fsheries, aquaculture, tourism, food security).

• As atmospheric CO2 increases, the solutions (i.e. mitigate, protect, repair, adapt) become fewer and less effective, thus decreasing the long-term ability of humankind to cope with both on-set and gradual changes in the ocean.

• Such an assessment provides further compelling arguments for rapid and ambitious CO2 emission reductions at the international level, notably through the revision cycle of countries’ 2030 pledges (i.e. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs) approved by the in 2015.

Ocean Warming 47 . The cascading efects of climate-related changes in the ocean

2.1 Introduction organisms and keystone species, including ecosystem Together, the atmosphere and the ocean allow life engineers; to identify commonalities and develop unifying on the Blue Planet. These life-support systems are, concepts; to focus on species, processes and ecosystems however, altered by human activities, as exemplifed by considered most vulnerable or most resilient to ocean contemporary climate change that generates worldwide change; and to cover the range of processes from sub- disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual cellular to ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and cycling. A ffth one of course deals with better understanding natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies. the interactions with human societies, from impacts to An impressive body of knowledge on “emerging” issues short- to long-term responses. A third reason is that the such as ocean warming and acidifcation has recently societal side of the problem has been understudied up to accumulated. Regarding ocean acidifcation, the number now. Yet, as climate change will amplify, changes in the of scientifc papers increased by 35% per year between ocean as well as impacts on society will also increase. 2000 and 2013 compared to an increase of 4.8% per year Whatever the global mitigation efforts will be in the coming for all scientifc felds (Riebesell and Gattuso, 2014; Yang et decades, some impacts are already unavoidable due to al., 2015). Another signifcant indicator is the development latency in the climate and ocean systems. This means that of three chapters specifcally dedicated to the ocean dealing with climate and ocean changes is not only about in the contribution of the IPCC Working Group 2 to the “avoiding the unmanageable” (i.e. prevent dangerous Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These chapters together physical and biological changes through massive GHG represent a more than 400-page synthesis of the existing emission mitigation), but also about “managing the literature, at the global (Pörtner et al., 2014; Wong et al., unavoidable” (i.e. adaptation) (Bierbaum et al., 2007). 2014) and regional (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014) levels. Scientists also undertook massive efforts to disseminate This chapter does not pretend to provide answers to their understandings outside of the scientifc community, the challenges raised above. It rather seeks to lay some and now the issue of ocean climate-related changes is the foundations for future transdisciplinary research on ocean subject of numerous policy concerns (e.g. Goal 14 of the changes and their consequences on human societies. It is Sustainable Development Goals1, Our Ocean Conferences mainly inspired from a scientifc paper (Gattuso et al., 2015) in 2014 in the USA and in 2015 in Chile, and Ocean days and on a Policy Brief (Magnan et al., 2015a) that provide and side events at the 21st Conference of the Parties to a synthesis of the recent and future changes to the ocean UNFCCC2 in 2015). Progress to develop the scientifc and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services understanding of what is happening in the ocean as well provided to humans. This chapter follows the “chain of as to better include the ocean-related issues in policy impacts” principle to emphasize cascading effects, going agenda at various scales, must, however, be reinforced from changes in the ocean’s physics and chemistry to for at least three reasons. First, and although COP 21 marine and coastal species, and then to human societies allowed some major progress, the source of the problem, through the ocean’s ecosystem services. It considers i.e. the high concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the global scale and focuses on key organisms and the atmosphere, has not yet been eradicated. Mitigation ecosystem services for which robust scientifc studies have efforts at the global scale must thus be pursued, not to been recently published (Howes et al., 2015; Weatherdon say drastically accelerated. Here the scientifc community, et al., 2015). The chapter notably explores two contrasting including the ocean community, has a major role to play to GHG emission scenarios developed by the IPCC for the “keep the pressure on” through advances in knowledge, end of the 21st Century: the high emissions trajectory from processes at work to impacts and thresholds (Briggs (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) et al., 2015; Stocker, 2015; Magnan et al., 2016). Second, and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6). The latter Science still faces key research challenges to develop scenario is consistent with the Paris Agreement3 of keeping multiple-driver studies at the community to ecosystem mean global temperature increase below 2°C in the 21st levels, and to fnd answers to societal problems. Riebesell Century. We then discuss possible solutions and end and Gattuso (2015) emphasize four of these challenges with four key messages to be considered in international regarding ocean acidifcation: to concentrate on reference climate negotiations under the UNFCCC.

1 http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/oceans/ 3 UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement (FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1). Available at: 2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.

48 Ocean Warming ascading efects (2014). et al. (2014), Hoegh-Guldberg (2014), et al. The chain of impacts of ocean acidifcation, ocean warming and sea-level rise. rise. sea-level and warming ocean acidifcation, ocean of impacts of chain The

Figure 2.1 derived from Pörtner the authors, Sources:

Ocean Warming 49 . The cascading efects of climate-related changes in the ocean

Figure 2.2 Distribution of heat, carbon dioxide and ice-melt water in the main Earth reservoirs and consequences for the ocean.

2.2 Cascading efects 2.2.2 The ocean as a “climate integrator” The frst building block in the chain of impacts (see left hand 2.2.1 General overview of the “chain of impacts” side of Figure 2.1) refers to the direct interface between Together, ocean warming, ocean acidifcation, and sea- the atmosphere and the ocean. “Climate” is indeed not a level rise drive a “chain of impacts” that links changes in result only of atmosphere dynamics, but actually of fne the ocean to humans (Figure 2.1). Changes in the basic and multi-temporal atmosphere-ocean interactions. As a parameters of the ocean have started to induce major result, climate change not only affects the atmosphere, consequences on organisms and ecosystems in terms of but also the ocean (including enclosed seas) that must abundance, phenology, geographical distribution, invasive thus be considered as a “climate integrator’’ (Figure 2.2). species, prey-predator relations, and species extinction The ocean has, (i) absorbed 93% of the earth’s additional (for a synthesis, see Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Pörtner heat since the 1970s, moderating global warming; (ii) et al., 2014; Howes et al., 2015). Due to a domino captured 26% of human-derived CO2 emissions since effect, key human sectors are now at threat, especially 1750, limiting the increase in atmospheric temperature; fsheries, aquaculture, coastal risks management, health and (iii) collected virtually all water from melting ice. and coastal tourism (for a synthesis, see Weatherdon et Without the ocean, present climate change would thus al., 2015). Severe implications at both the national and be far more intense and challenging for human life. the international levels are to be expected from such cascading effects (Magnan et al., 2015b). Changes in fsh 2.2.3 Ocean physics and chemistry catch potential in a given area, for example, will challenge This regulating function, however, happens at a cost, as international fshery agreements between the countries the rise in GHG concentration4 over the industrial age concerned (e.g. in the western and eastern part of the has driven a series of major environmental changes in Pacifc, in North Atlantic, in polar seas), which in turn will the ocean, especially warming, acidifcation and sea-level have consequences on the industry (proftability, jobs, rise. There is strong evidence that the ocean has warmed etc.), markets and prices in several countries, and their between 1971 and 2010, and it is very likely that warming international competitiveness. Yet, the more that changes was occurring earlier (Rhein et al., 2013). Warming has in the ocean challenge current international agreements, occurred at all depths but is most pronounced at the the more they will question food and human security, surface. Over the last four decades, it is estimated that geopolitics and development at the global scale. As with the temperature of the upper 75m has increased by climate change at large, changes in the ocean are defnitely around 0.11°C per decade. The uptake of carbon dioxide a global concern, extending beyond restricted national (CO2) in sea water causes a decrease in pH (i.e. increase boundaries. This is all the more true, as the scientifc in acidity), as well as in the availability of carbonate ions 2- community tells us that the impacts on key marine (CO3 ) that are one of the building blocks required by and coastal organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services are already detectable from high to low latitudes, transcending the traditional North/South divide. 4 From 278 to 400 ppm.

50 Ocean Warming ascading efects

Figure 2.3 Contrasting risk of impacts to ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Source: the authors, adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015). many marine plants and animals to make their skeletons, different under these two emissions scenarios. shells and other calcareous structures. This process is Obviously, the ocean will be much warmer under known as “ocean acidifcation”. There is high confdence RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6, the global mean change that surface ocean pH has declined by 0.1 pH units in sea surface temperature differing by nearly a factor since the beginning of the industrial age, representing an of 3 when compared to preindustrial levels (+3.2°C vs. increase of ocean acidity by around 30% in 250 years +1.2°C). In parallel, global surface acidity changes will (Gattuso et al., 2014). This ocean warming (i.e. thermal decrease by 0.07 and 0.33 pH units under RCP2.6 and expansion) and melting of continental ice sheets has RCP8.5, respectively (relative to preindustrial values). caused sea-level rise. It has been measured that global Eventually, it is projected that mean global sea-level mean sea level has risen by approximately 1.7mm/year rise will be multiplied by a factor of 1.4 under RCP8.5 over the 1901-2010 period, with an acceleration between compared to RCP2.6, relative to the preindustrial period 1993 and 2010 (+3.2mm/year) (Church et al., 2013). (respectively +0.86m vs. +0.60m)5.

Future conditions for the ocean depend on the amount 2.2.4 Organisms and ecosystems of carbon that will be emitted in the coming decades. Acknowledging that impacts on key marine and coastal The more stringent scenario (RCP2.6) allows less than organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services are one-sixth of 21st Century emissions expected under already detectable, Science warns that several of the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). One must, these environments and services will likely face high however, be aware that the ocean’s capacity to absorb risk of impacts before 2100 (Figure 2.3), even with the

CO2 will decrease with increasing emissions: the fraction moderate CO2 emissions scenario (RCP2.6). of anthropogenic emissions absorbed by the ocean in the 21st Century is projected to decline from 56% for RCP2.6 to 22% for RCP8.5. This suggests that ocean 5 This multiplying factor reaches 1.6 when the reference period considered is physics and chemistry in 2100 will be signifcantly the 1990-1999 decade (+0.67m under RCP8.5 and +0.41m under RCP2.6).

Ocean Warming 51 . The cascading efects of climate-related changes in the ocean

While warm-water corals are at the frontline of ocean together with the fact that climate change will also changes, mid-latitude seagrass, high-latitude pteropods severely affect agriculture on land. Likewise, the risk of and krill, mid-latitude bivalves, and fnfshes are also impact on ecosystem services such as coastal protection already affected. In a stringent emissions pathway (e.g. by oyster beds, coral reefs, and mangroves) would (RCP2.6), ocean changes carry high risks of impact for become high or very high by 2100, thus exacerbating the warm-water corals as well as for mid-latitude bivalves, risks of marine fooding in low-lying areas. the risk of other impacts remaining moderate – although worrying. In the higher emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the Of course, these impacts of ocean warming and situation will be greatly aggravated: several key marine acidifcation will be cumulative or synergistic with other organisms (e.g. corals, pteropods, fnfsh, and krill) would human-induced stresses such as over-exploitation of face very high risk of impact, such as mass mortalities or living resources, habitat destruction and pollution. This species displacement (Beaugrand et al., 2015; Gattuso et opens the perspective of signifcant disruption to job al., 2015; Nagelkerken and Connell, 2015). These results, markets, international fshing agreements, geopolitics, which are derived from experiments, feld observations etc., as mentioned above. In addition, given the extent and modelling, are consistent with evidence from high- of the expected changes, it must be acknowledged that

CO2 periods in the geological record, giving credence to no country is immune to these impacts, making this those worrying future projections. a worldwide problem and highlighting the importance of successful climate negotiations if the international 2.2.5 Ecosystem services community is to avoid moving towards an unsustainable Impacts to the ocean’s ecosystem services follow a future. similar trajectory of “moderate” to “high to very high” risks of impact with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively (see 2.3 Solutions at risk Figure 2.3). Fisheries and aquaculture (e.g. fn fsheries at low latitudes), which are key for the survival for millions 2.3.1 A threatened diversity of solutions of people (i.e. a source of dietary protein and income), Various options are available to address ocean impacts, are expected to be severely affected under business-as- with some evidence of success (Billé et al., 2013). usual RCP8.5, putting global food security at high risk They can be grouped into four categories (Figure 2.4): of disruption. This threat therefore must be considered mitigating CO2 emissions; protecting marine and coastal

Figure 2.4 Solutions to face climate and CO2 – related changes in the ocean. Source: adapted from Billé et al. (2013) and Gattuso et al. (2015).

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ecosystems (e.g. protected areas, or regulation of natural the end of the century (Briggs et al., 2015). Some of resources exploitation); repairing ecosystems that have these vital signs should refect changes in the ocean, already experienced damage (e.g. assisted evolution referring to its warming and/or its acidifcation, for of corals and/or coral farming); and adapting (e.g. example. Given the contrasted futures summarized in economic activities diversifcation, or coastal setback the present contribution, the ocean obviously provides zones). Despite the encouraging sign of emerging further compelling arguments for rapid and rigorous responses, the number of options and their effciency GHG emission (notably CO2) reduction. Accordingly, any narrow as the ocean warms and acidifes (Gattuso et post-2015 global climate regime that will not signifcantly al., 2015). A key rationale behind this is that the more contribute to minimize the impacts on the ocean will ecosystems are impacted, the less they will be resilient remain incomplete and inadequate. to gradual and on-set changes, thus exacerbating negative impacts and the adverse consequences for 2.4 Conclusions humans. That is to say, moving above the +2°C path This contribution emphasizes four main cascading will signifcantly limit the manoeuvring space of coastal conclusions. First, the ocean strongly infuences the societies to implement effective action. This matter climate system and provides fundamental services to actually concerns humankind at large given that it is not humans. As a result, it must be recognized as a key only coastal societies that depend on these vital ocean component of the action, from local to international services. levels, against climate change. Second, unequivocal scientifc evidence shows that impacts on key marine

2.3.2 CO2 emission reduction as the and coastal organisms, ecosystems, and services are overarching solution already detectable and that high to very high risks of The previous sections lead to a clear conclusion: rapid impact are to be expected by 2100, even under the and substantial reduction of CO2 emissions is required in low emissions scenario (RCP2.6). These impacts order to prevent the massive and effectively irreversible will occur across all latitudes, making this a global impacts on ocean ecosystems and their services. In line concern beyond the North/South divide. Third, there with this and according to Gattuso et al. (2015), it appears are concerns among the scientifc community that as that RCP2.6 is not a “green utopia” where everything atmospheric CO2 increases, the options for the ocean would be fne, but actually a “minimum ambition” to be (i.e. mitigate, protect, repair, adapt) become fewer and consistent with United Nations Framework Convention less effective. Fourth, GHG mitigation at the global on Climate Change (UNFCCC) fundamental objective of scale appears to be an overarching solution that will preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with determine the future of the others (protect, repair, the climate system ... within a time-frame suffcient to adapt). As a result, rapid and substantial reductions of allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, GHG emissions are required, meaning that the ocean to ensure that food production is not threatened, and community will have to “keep the pressure” on the to enable economic development to proceed in a international climate negotiation process to ensure, sustainable manner (United Nations, 1992). From a frst, that the mitigation efforts adopted in Paris in 2015 purely scientifc point of view, RCP2.6 will already bring are effectively implemented and, second, that the major changes in the functioning and resources of the global ambition is progressively increased. It is thus of ocean. critical importance that changes in the ocean are taken into account in climate talks, and a relevant architecture Although international climate negotiations under the for this must now be developed. UNFCCC have only minimally considered the impacts of GHG emissions on the ocean and, in turn, its role Acknowledgements as a key area of solutions to tackle climate change and This is a product of “The Oceans 2015 Initiative”, an enhance adaptation (Stocker, 2015), COP21 brought expert group supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco some progress as the text of the Paris Agreement Foundation, the Ocean Acidifcation International recognizes ‘the importance of ensuring the integrity Coordination Centre of the International Atomic of all ecosystems, including oceans’. In parallel, some Energy Agency, the BNP Paribas Foundation and the emerging works propose, for example, to enlarge the Monégasque Association for Ocean Acidifcation. We scope of the negotiations to a wider panel of “planetary thank all co-authors of the paper by Gattuso et al. vital signs” than only air temperature increase by (2015).

Ocean Warming 53 . The cascading efects of climate-related changes in the ocean

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