Change Climate www.futureofchildren.org The Future of Children Children and Climate Change VOLUME 26 NUMBER 1 SPRING 2016 3 Children and Climate Change: Introducing the Issue 11 The Science of Climate Change 31 Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital Volume 26 Volume 51 Climate Change, Conflict, and Children 73 Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children 93 Pollution and Climate Change 115 Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries Number 1 133 Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Climate Change to Our Children 157 Mobilizing Political Action on Behalf of Future Generations Spring 2016 A COLLABORATION OF THE WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT A COLLABORATION OF THE WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRINCETON UNIVERSITY AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION The FutureThe Futureof Children of Children promotes promotes effective effective policies policies and programs and programs for children for children by by providingproviding timely, timely,objective objective information information based on based the beston the available best available research. research. SeniorSenior Editorial Editorial Staff Staff JournalJournal Staff Staff Sara McLanahanSara McLanahan Kris McDonaldKris McDonald Editor-in-ChiefEditor-in-Chief AssociateAssociate Editor Editor PrincetonPrinceton University University PrincetonPrinceton University University Director,Director, Center Centerfor Research for Research on on Child Wellbeing,Child Wellbeing, and William and William S. Tod S. Tod Jon WallaceJon Wallace ProfessorProfessor of Sociology of Sociology and Public and AffairsPublic Affairs ManagingManaging Editor Editor PrincetonPrinceton University University Janet M.Janet Currie M. Currie Senior SeniorEditor Editor Lisa Markman-PithersLisa Markman-Pithers PrincetonPrinceton University University OutreachOutreach Director Director Director,Director, Center Centerfor Health for Healthand Wellbeing; and Wellbeing; PrincetonPrinceton University University Chair, DepartmentChair, Department of Economics; of Economics; AssociateAssociate Director, Director, Education Education and Henryand PutnamHenry Putnam Professor Professor of Economics of Economics ResearchResearch Section Section and Publicand AffairsPublic Affairs AllegraAllegra Pocinki Pocinki Ron HaskinsRon Haskins OutreachOutreach Coordinator Coordinator Senior SeniorEditor Editor BrookingsBrookings Institution Institution BrookingsBrookings Institution Institution ReginaRegina Leidy Leidy Senior SeniorFellow, Fellow, Cabot FamilyCabot FamilyChair, andChair, and CommunicationsCommunications Coordinator Coordinator Co-Director,Co-Director, Center Centeron Children on Children and Families and FamiliesPrincetonPrinceton University University CeciliaCecilia Elena ElenaRouse Rouse Tracy MeroneTracy Merone Senior SeniorEditor Editor AdministratorAdministrator PrincetonPrinceton University University PrincetonPrinceton University University Dean, WoodrowDean, Woodrow Wilson Wilson School Schoolof Public of Public and Internationaland International Affairs, Affairs, Katzman-Ernst Katzman-Ernst ProfessorProfessor in the Economicsin the Economics of Education, of Education, and Professorand Professor of Economics of Economics and Public and PublicAffairs Affairs The viewsThe expressedviews expressed in this inpublication this publication do not donecessarily not necessarily represent represent the views the ofviews the of the Isabel IsabelSawhill Sawhill WoodrowWoodrow Wilson Wilson School Schoolat Princeton at Princeton University University or the Brookingsor the Brookings Institution. Institution. Senior SeniorEditor Editor BrookingsBrookings Institution Institution CopyrightCopyright © 2016 © by 2016 The by Trustees The Trustees of Princeton of Princeton University University Senior SeniorFellow Fellow This workThis is work licensed is licensed under theunder Creative the Creative Commons Commons Attribution- Attribution- NoDerivsNoDerivs 3.0 Unported 3.0 Unported License, License, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0. ArticlesArticles may be may reproduced be reproduced with proper with proper attribution: attribution: “From “FromThe Future The Future of Children, of Children, a collaborationa collaboration of the Woodrowof the Woodrow Wilson Wilson School School of Public of Publicand International and International Affairs Affairsat at PrincetonPrinceton University University and the and Brookings the Brookings Institution.” Institution.” The FutureThe Futureof Children of Children would likewould to thanklike to the thank Endeavor the Endeavor Foundation Foundation for its generous for its generous support. support. To purchaseTo purchase a print acopy, print download copy, download free electronic free electronic copies, copies, or sign or up sign for upour for e-newsletter, our e-newsletter, ISSN: 1054-8289ISSN: 1054-8289 go to ourgo website,to our website, www.futureofchildren.org. www.futureofchildren.org. If you wouldIf you wouldlike additional like additional information information about about ISBN: 978-0-9857863-5-9ISBN: 978-0-9857863-5-9 the journal,the journal, please pleasesend questions send questions to [email protected]. to [email protected]. VOLUME 26 NUMBER 1 SPRING 2016 Children and Climate Change 3 Children and Climate Change: Introducing the Issue by Janet Currie and Olivier Deschênes 11 The Science of Climate Change by Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse K. Anttila-Hughes 31 Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital by Joshua Graff Zivin and Jeffrey Shrader 51 Climate Change, Conflict, and Children by Richard Akresh 73 Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children by Carolyn Kousky 93 Pollution and Climate Change by Allison S. Larr and Matthew Neidell 115 Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries by Rema Hanna and Paulina Oliva 133 Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Climate Change to Our Children by Simon Dietz, Ben Groom, and William A. Pizer 157 Mobilizing Political Action on Behalf of Future Generations by Joseph E. Aldy www.futureofchildren.org Children and Climate Change: Introducing the Issue Children and Climate Change: Introducing the Issue Janet Currie and Olivier Deschênes ccording to the US National 2. Today’s children and future generations Oceanic and Atmospheric will bear a disproportionate share of the Administration, 2015—with burden of climate change, which will an average global temperature affect child wellbeing through many 1.6° Fahrenheit warmer than direct, indirect, and societal pathways. the twentieth-century average—was Earth’s A 3. Children in developing countries and warmest year since record keeping began in 1880, continuing a half-century-long countries with weak institutions face the trend of rising temperatures. The debate greatest risks. about climate change and appropriate policy 4. The uncertainties associated with climate response is often framed in terms of the change and its mitigation—coupled likely impact on our children. Children born with the fact that the costs of climate in 2016 will be 34 in 2050 and 84 in 2100. change mitigation policies need to be How will the probable rise in temperature paid now, but the benefits will accrue (3.6 to 7.2° Fahrenheit, or 2 to 4° Celsius), in the future—make it difficult to enact rising sea levels, and the increasing likelihood of extreme weather affect the course of their appropriate policies. lives and the lives of their children? This In the past decade, the science of issue of The Future of Children outlines the climate change has progressed rapidly. likely consequences of climate change on By combining evidence from direct child health and wellbeing and identifies observation, climate modeling, and policies that could mitigate negative impacts. historical sources (such as ice cores that can Four interrelated themes emerge from the reveal information about climate centuries issue. ago), scientists have become virtually 1. Climate change will fundamentally alter certain that human activities are altering Earth’s climate system in many ways that our climate in ways that will have drastic threaten children’s physical and mental effects for future generations through wellbeing. mechanisms such as sea-level rise, warmer www.futureofchildren.org Janet Currie is the Henry Putnam Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, chair of the Department of Economics, and director of the Center for Health and Wellbeing at Princeton University. Olivier Deschênes is an associate professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. VOL. 26 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2016 3 Janet Currie and Olivier Deschênes temperatures, and a higher frequency of may be many ways to either exacerbate natural disasters. or compensate for the harm caused by climate change. Governments bear major Children are largely left out of discussions responsibility for adopting policies that about appropriate responses to climate respond to climate change. However, change, but they ought to be central to these governments in developing countries are debates because they—as well as future less likely to represent children’s interests generations—have a much larger stake in the effectively, leaving children at even greater outcome than we do. risk of harmful consequences. Compared with adults, children are Our fourth theme is that decision making physically more vulnerable to the direct surrounding climate change is