New Publications

Beyond Disasters: Creating Opportunities for Peace By Michael Renner and Zoë Chafe Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2007. 56 pages.

Reviewed by NICHOLA D. MINOTT

Beyond Disasters: Creating Opportunities for Nichola Minott is a doctoral candidate at Peace examines the impact of natural disas- the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy ters on conflicts by analyzing the 2004 Indian at Tufts University. She is currently work- Ocean tsunami and the 2005 earthquake in ing on issues pertaining to international Kashmir. Co-authors Michael Renner and Zoë environment and resource policy studies, Chafe focus on two main themes: the impact international security studies, and conflict of disasters on ongoing conflicts, and how the resolution and negotiations. She holds a responses to disasters can change the dynamics Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy from of these conflicts. These significant and timely the Fletcher School. questions can help us understand how post- disaster interventions could contribute to conflict resolution and facilitate cooperation among that the severity of disasters is increasing as warring factions by helping address the deeper growing socio-economic inequalities push socio-economic and political barriers within the development and settlements into vulnerable conflict itself. areas, exposing more people to the full impact The report analyzes three cases: Aceh of these events. From the melting ice caps to (Indonesia), Sri Lanka, and Kashmir. All three Hurricane Katrina to the 2004 tsunami, the regions were plagued by civil unrest and con- world has borne witness to the destructive flict, and all suffered a sudden and devastating power of environmental disasters. environmental disaster that, for a time, pacified Renner and Chafe describe how human the conflicts. However, the post-disaster out- population growth is forcing more people comes varied, ranging from a peace agreement into fragile and vulnerable ecosystems, thus to further violence and bloodshed. The authors increasing the number of people likely to be provide important lessons and policy recom- affected by disasters. By 2008, “for the first mendations, demonstrating how governments, time ever, more people will live in cities than the military, disaster relief agencies, and civil rural areas” (p. 10). Despite advanced early society can play positive (and negative) roles in warning systems—which have decreased conflict resolution. fatalities—the number of people affected by The first part of Beyond Disasters presents disasters has risen 10 percent over the past a general overview of natural disasters as they two decades (p. 9). relate to “human impacts on the natural envi- Environmental degradation is contribut- ronment” (p. 7). Renner and Chafe observe ing to the severity of the damage; for instance, 91

Environmental Change and Security program short-sighted economic policies led Louisiana nami involvement of the international com- to lose more than a quarter of its wetlands, elim- munity—specifically, the European Union-led inating a natural buffer zone that could have Aceh Monitoring Mission—helped increase the minimized the devastation. In addition, the commitment to peace. Yet Aceh’s post-tsunami authors cite studies by the Intergovernmental peace could be easily endangered by continued Panel on Climate Change indicating that inequalities in resource distribution and aid. Earth’s temperature has increased over the past Unlike Aceh, post-tsunami Sri Lanka century, along with the severity of storms and descended into further violence. The unequal other undesirable climate-related phenomena. distribution of post-disaster aid helped Yet what ultimately matters is the timeli- increase tensions between government forces A disaster ness and adequacy of relief programs and the and the Tamil rebels. Other factors contrib- can weaken ability of the affected society to absorb the uted to this particular outcome, including the shock and rebound. Typically, the poor and Sinhala nationalists, who viewed any type of areas already disenfranchised bear the brunt of the disas- negotiated settlement as a ploy for a separate ter. For instance, the U.S. federal response to state. Peace was not politically expedient for in conflict, Hurricane Katrina was clearly lacking, and the the Sinhala-led government; studies showed further poor of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast are that the majority-Sinhala population did not still suffering the results years later. want to end the conflict. And the internation- depleting Post-disaster relief and economic aid can be al community sided with the government by the country’s used as a political tool: Aid to the victims of labeling the Tamils “terrorists.” disasters can distort the economy by increasing Unlike the civil wars in Aceh and Sri economic inflation, the cost of living, and competition for Lanka, the third case study focuses on an jobs, and by leading to unequal compensation interstate conflict. After a massive earthquake resources and conflicts over resettlement. A disaster can on October 8, 2005, India and Pakistan and making weaken areas already in conflict, further deplet- took tentative steps toward thawing rela- ing the country’s economic resources and mak- tions, allowing some travel across the “Line of it more ing it more difficult to recover from violence. Control,” which demarcates their respective For example, Pakistan’s slow response to the geographical claims in the disputed territory of difficult to 1970 floods in present-day Bangladesh eventu- Kashmir. The two governments also agreed to recover from ally led to the region to push for independence facilitate cross-border relief efforts. Tensions in December 1971. Likewise, Nicaraguan dic- decreased and trade increased; however, both violence. tator Anastasio Somoza’s inefficient response to sides remained cautious. While the earthquake the devastating 1972 earthquake and embezzle- mobilized civil society, biased aid distribution ment of international reconstruction aid weak- stirred discontent and conflict. The authors ened his support base and eventually led to his conclude that the nations missed an opportu- overthrow (p. 17). nity to build peace; neither side seemed ready Renner and Chafe delve deeper into the cases to make the necessary commitments to truly of Aceh, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir. When the engage in dialogue. tsunami hit the Indonesian province of Aceh In the final chapter, “Creating Future on December 26, 2004, the province had been Opportunities for Peace,” the authors provide under martial law since the failure of official an excellent synthesis of the three cases. Their peace talks in May 2003. The tsunami forced clear and concise summary of the key aspects the parties involved to shift their focus from of post-disaster engagement in each case pro- fighting to working together to distribute relief vides steps the international community can to the population in need. Most importantly, take to help further peacebuilding in these it brought international attention to the con- fragile environments. They argue that donor flict. While unofficial peace talks were already nations should leverage aid to build peace; 92 in progress prior to the disaster, the post-tsu- humanitarian groups should be more sensi-

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 tive to the realities of politics and conflict; and further exacerbated by natural disasters. How other actors responding to natural disasters does one create incentives for powerful groups should make a concerted effort to restore the to implement the policies needed to minimize environment (p. 42). the impact of future disasters? This specific Though the analysis is compelling, the recommendation is lacking—which is what report’s main weakness lies in its vague pol- the policy realm most needs. icy recommendations. It is hardly news that Overall, I found the report a fascinating environmental restoration will minimize the examination of how three regions addressed damage caused by disasters, or that “building the devastating impact of a natural disaster and trust and reconciliation” is pivotal to increas- their divergent outcomes on conflict. Renner ing cooperation among disputants. Most of and Chafe conclude that the tsunami and the recommendations are aspirational and do earthquake created opportunities and chal- not address the hard realities on the ground. lenges that warrant further study to determine The real issue is the lack of political will on the why the effects on the conflicts were so varied. part of governments, the international com- Beyond Disasters is a timely call for more in- munity, and powerful elites to make the sacri- depth research on disaster relief and its links to fices necessary to mitigate inequalities that are conflict mitigation.

Bridges Over Water: Understanding Transboundary Water Conflict, Negotiation and Cooperation By Ariel Dinar, Shlomi Dinar, Stephen McCaffrey, and Daene McKinney Singapore: World Scientific, 2007. 468 pages.

Reviewed by ANNIKA KRAMER

Two riparian states, A and B, share one trans- Annika Kramer is a research fellow with boundary aquifer. The countries’ economies are Adelphi Research in Berlin, Germany. She is based only on the aquifer’s water: They pump the co-author of “Managing Water Conflict water to sell it on the international market as and Cooperation” in Worldwatch’s State of bottled water. Assume, for simplicity’s sake, that the World 2005. the capacity of the international market to con- sume water is limited, and the price per unit of water is a decreasing function of the quantity. With this transboundary groundwater ver- Unfortunately, A and B decide how much water sion of the famous “prisoner’s dilemma,” the to pump without consulting the other. Each authors of Bridges Over Water: Understanding country then pumps as much water as possible Transboundary Water Conflict, Negotiation and and sells it on the market; however, this floods Cooperation demonstrate how a transbound- the international market and lowers the price ary water situation could be expressed using for water. If the two countries instead commu- game theory. Game theory is only one of the nicated and cooperated, they could maintain approaches employed by this textbook, which high market prices for water and realize the seeks to introduce the multidisciplinary facets highest joint payoff. of freshwater management by considering its 93

Environmental Change and Security program political, economic, legal, environmental, and and institutional aspects, are under-represented hydrological aspects. Representing a cross- in the following chapters. section of disciplines, authors Ariel Dinar, Bridges Over Water continues with an over- Shlomi Dinar, Stephen McCaffrey, and Daene view of the literature on conflict, negotiation, McKinney seek to fill the void by producing a and cooperation over shared waters. While this single textbook that covers all aspects of nego- chapter concisely summarizes the literature tiations over transboundary water, an ever- from various fields of research—which is very expanding field of study. As such, this book is a useful for anyone doing research in the field—it very valuable undertaking. will probably not be easy for a new student to Bridges Over Water is aimed at graduate stu- understand due to its brevity and the multitude dents in economics, engineering, water law, and of concepts it introduces. international relations, as well as practitioners The third and fourth chapters introduce of water resource management, international the main principles of international water law water law, and water policies. The book provides and cooperation, providing examples of their a theoretical background on water resources application in transboundary basins around and international water law, as well as ��quanti- the world. The prisoner’s dilemma presented tative approaches to analyzing transboundary above sets the stage for two chapters on coop- water problems, such as river basin modeling erative game theory and how it can be used to and game theory. The annex offers detailed case analyze the cooperative or competitive behavior studies of particular transboundary river basins, of riparians in transboundary basins. A fictive lakes, and aquifers, together with the treaties example of a basin shared by three riparians governing cooperation. A CD-ROM accom- is interesting to read in spite of the many for- panying the book includes modeling software, mulas that might scare away those less familiar which can be used to model the fictive Lara with economics. Together with the knowledge River basin or other basins. gained in the chapter on “The Use of River The book starts with an introduction to Basin Modeling as a Tool to Assess Conflict and global water issues, sectoral use patterns, and Potential Cooperation,” game theory is used to water scarcity concepts. After taking stock of the analyze the hypothetical but illustrative exam- world’s transboundary river basins, the first chap- ple of the Lara River basin in the book’s annex. ter points out that conflict is not the prevailing The modeling software provided with the book outcome of riparian states’ divergent interests. allows students to track cooperation’s likely However, it does not provide a clear overview of effects on the basin. common conflicts of interests in transboundary The seventh chapter discusses conflict and water basins, such as issues of water quality, quan- cooperation over water from the perspective of tity, and flow timing, or divergent water manage- international relations and negotiations, includ- ment priorities such as hydropower, flood con- ing examples illustrating how the relative power trol, or wetland protection. This overview would and geography of riparians—as well as conflict have provided readers with a clear understanding history, domestic policy, and external actors— of the most common problems. Also, the authors can influence the balance between conflict and should have devoted some time to introducing cooperation. This chapter creates a more real- the concept of integrated water resources man- istic picture of the various social and political agement as the recognized approach to water factors that may sidetrack economically rational management and as a basis for understanding behavior. The following chapters, “Overview of the environmental, social, and political proc- Selected International Water Treaties in Their esses taking place in river basins. Instead, it is Geographic and Political Contexts” and “Global not mentioned until later in the book, and its Analysis of International Water Agreements,” principles, including participatory approaches provide a comprehensive overview of how 94

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 international freshwater agreements can help benefited from a clearer introduction to the settle water disputes, including a useful set of major problems and issues of dispute; more questions for analyzing freshwater agreements. over, more attention could have been devoted Together with the basin case study template in to the actual problems water managers face Annex 2, these questions will hopefully contrib- on the ground—especially in developing ute to an increasing pool of comparable case countries, where many of the transboundary study analyses. rivers of the world are located—such as the Preparing a textbook on such an interdis- lack of data, the difficulty of enforcing agree- ciplinary topic and targeting graduate stu- ments, and limited institutional capacities to dents from multiple disciplines is ambitious. maintain river basin organizations. Overall, Bridges Over Water must be complemented by however, Bridges Over Water is a valuable a knowledgeable teacher who can give addi- contribution that helps fill the need for com- tional explanations and adjust the contents prehensive textbooks on transboundary water to the students’ level. The book would have conflict, negotiation, and cooperation.

The Environmental Dimension of Asian Security: Conflict and Cooperation Over Energy, Resources, and Pollution Edited by In-Taek Hyun and Miranda A. Schreurs Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2007. 362 pages.

Reviewed by PAUL G. HARRIS

The Environmental Dimension of Asian Security: Paul G. Harris is the director of the Conflict and Cooperation Over Energy, Resources, Environmental Studies Program and a pro- and Pollution describes and analyzes connections fessor in the Department of Political Science among resources, the environment, and security at Lingnan University, Hong Kong. His most in Northeast Asia. Despite its title, this book is recent book is Europe and Global Climate not about all of Asia, but instead focuses on its Change: Politics, Foreign Policy and Regional eastern, and particularly its northeastern, states Cooperation (Edward Elgar, 2007). and regions. Given the number of people living in this part of the world, its prodigious pollution, its unprecedented economic growth—and eral prominent environmental and resource the dominant “growth-first, clean-up-pollu- issues. The 12 consistently informative chapters tion-later model of development” (p. 254)—as include three devoted to defining environmen- well as the region’s growing appetite for natural tal security and identifying regional institutions resources, anyone interested in environmental that address environmental and resource prob- security should be concerned about the issues lems; three focused on energy security, includ- addressed in this book. ing one dedicated to radioactive waste; two on Broadly speaking, the book examines the the marine environment and water security; and practice of and prospects for regional envi- chapters on food security, Korea, and NGOs. ronmental cooperation, and provides readers Most chapters are very detailed, well-written, and freestanding, allowing readers to easily skip with detailed descriptions and analyses of sev- 95

Environmental Change and Security program to those chapters of greatest interest. Like several discussion of the global security implications of other chapters, Mika Mervio’s chapter on water China’s escalating greenhouse gas emissions. and human security in Northeast Asia (pp. 143- Regular readers of the ECSP Report most 164) is one of the best available analyses of the likely agree that there are important connections topic; it is worth the price of the book by itself. between environmental change and security, but Similarly, Young-Ja Bae’s chapter is one of the may disagree on the exact definition of environ- best English-language summaries of radioactive mental security. The editors of The Environmental waste management in East Asia (pp. 63-88). Dimension of Asian Security define “environment” The Environmental Dimension of Asian and “environmental security” very broadly, which Security is very useful for its detailed—and helps explain the heavy emphasis on energy secu- sobering—discussion of the poor prospects rity, which was a major topic of study well before for establishing robust and effective regional environmental security gained prominence in regimes to address environmental changes and the lexicon of international affairs. resource scarcities. A proliferation of weak and As Miranda Schreurs notes in her fine chap- overlapping environmental regimes have had ter on regional cooperation to protect marine little beneficial impact on environmental prob- environments, “Environmental security has lems. Despite the region’s profound environ- been defined in different and, at times, compet- mental challenges, longstanding animosities ing ways” (p. 11). This book is no exception, and mistrust prevent effective cooperation on but the contributors at least move us closer to environmental and non-environmental threats finding a common definition. In the introduc- alike. As Geun Lee argues, “broader identity tion by In-Taek Hyun and Sung-han Kim, envi- relations among the countries in Northeast ronmental security is defined “in terms of the Asia are perhaps the most important factors source of environmental problems, the scope affecting the formation of environmental secu- and impacts of those problems, and the level of rity complexes,” alongside “legacies of past threat perceived by states or nations in relation colonial history and rivalries between Japan to the problems” (p. 9). In other words, if envi- and China” (p. 38) and what Miranda Schreurs ronmental change is not perceived at all, it is not appropriately refers to as “still considerable a threat to security—or at least it is unlikely to mutual suspicion and tension in the region” lead to interstate conflict. However, I wonder (p. 256). Alas, the book does not detail how to about the dangers of unperceived environmental surmount these obstacles; we need additional changes; this definition would exclude climate work devoted to overcoming historical suspi- change until the perception of its threat spread cions as a prelude to ensuring environmental beyond a few scientists. Hyun and Kim propose security in the region. one way around this problem: Empower “the Some issues are largely absent or given mini- community of experts working on the envi- mal attention. For example, climate change ronment” (p. 14). When this community has garners very little attention, despite possibly sufficiently stimulated people’s perceptions of posing the greatest threat to environmental environmental risk, “preventive” regional coop- security—and even territorial integrity (due, for eration to avert environmental conflict becomes example, to sea-level rise)—across much of East possible (pp. 13-14). Asia. Although Anna Brettell devotes five pages I question whether all of the issues in this book (pp. 104-109) of her very informative chapter fall under the rubric of environmental security. on energy security to climate change, it could For example, Esook Yoon, Seunghwan Lee, and have been featured much more prominently Fengshi Wu’s excellent chapter on environmental throughout the book. I would have liked a NGOs and their growing (but still constrained) chapter devoted to climate change and its secu- impact on environmental policy refers to environ- rity implications for East Asia, or at least more mental security at the outset, but then assumes 96

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 that all environmental issues are problems of argue that environmental problems are near- environmental security. Some chapters refer to ly always dealt with through ordinary policy the usual environmental security concerns, such means, which would leave most of the issues as transboundary pollution and competition for examined in the book beyond the scope of envi- natural resources, while others are dedicated to ronmental security. In short, most of the time issues that are not necessarily primarily environ- “environment” and “environmental security” mental, such as energy and food security. If states are interchangeable in this book, which explores seeking energy security adopt energy sources the environmental dimensions of Northeast (e.g., coal, nuclear power) that can have major Asian international relations and domestic poli- environmental impacts, energy becomes a matter tics just as much as (or more than, in the case of of environmental security, according to Elizabeth some chapters) security. Economy, who addresses energy security in her The book has a few irksome characteristics: superb chapter on the reality of and potential for The misleading title suggests that the book is a regional “environmental security complex” (see about all of Asia and not just East (and especially Despite the pp. 242-246). But if conflicts over energy arise Northeast) Asia. Secondly, all of the notes are at due to greater demand for it—as Sangsun Shim the end of the book, but there are no headers to region’s and Miranda Schreurs discuss in their chapters indicate the chapters and page numbers, making profound on dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the 1970s reading the notes extraordinarily annoying and oil shocks, and the nuclear crisis on the Korean time consuming. At first glance, the extremely environmental Peninsula—this seems to stretch the term “envi- detailed index—40 pages of small type—is a challenges, ronmental security” far enough to include every- godsend for those who might use the book for thing somehow related to the environment. reference. However, it is not reasonably orga- longstanding Similarly, if food shortages arise not from envi- nized; entries for North Korea alone take up two ronmental change but from incompetent govern- and one-half pages of the index—but not one of animosities and ment economic policies—as is arguably the case these is for “security.” In fact, the general index mistrust prevent in North Korea, which gets much attention in this entry for “security” refers to only three pages of book (e.g., pp. 165-184)—to call them environ- the entire book. Some of the material is out of effective mental security issues again stretches the defini- date, and much of the recent literature on envi- tion. Just as energy security is not always environ- ronmental politics and diplomacy in Northeast cooperation on mental security (hence references in the book to Asia is not cited. Nevertheless, the book’s selected environmental “environmental and energy security”), food secu- but extensive bibliography, which provides a rity is not always environmental security. substantial sampling of publications on environ- and non- As Geun Lee points out, definitions of envi- mental policy in the region up to a few years ago, ronmental security proliferate, and “[a]ttempts is still of great benefit. environmental to conceptualize [it] have created considerable Despite the omissions, The Environmental threats alike. conceptual and policy confusion” (p. 23). Lee Dimension of Asian Security is an excellent book defines environmental security as “the state’s that should be part of any institutional or per- protection of the people from environmental sonal library on environmental change. Readers threats and threats of an environmental origin” will not find better descriptions of some of the (p. 25), and further refines it by explaining that most important environmental challenges facing “[e]nvironmental problems become security Northeast Asia, especially those interested in ener- issues when the state is forced to respond with gy, the marine environment, water, food, the role extraordinary measures” (p. 25). This defini- of NGOs, and regional environmental cooperation seems to exclude preventive cooperation tion. However, readers hoping to find a handy, all- described in other chapters, and suggests that encompassing definition of environmental securi- something is not a threat to security until the ty will be disappointed—though that is a problem problem becomes quite severe. One might that most of the literature has yet to solve. 97

Environmental Change and Security program Escaping the Resource Curse Edited by Macartan Humphreys, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Joseph E. Stiglitz New York: Columbia University Press, 2007. 408 pages.

Reviewed by KAYSIE BROWN

Kaysie Brown is a deputy director of the be less developed than similar states lacking Program on International Institutions and such resources. Jeffrey D. Sachs, in his fore- Global Governance at the Council on Foreign word, attributes the curse to three overlapping Relations. She has written on topics such as phenomena: so-called “Dutch disease,” where the legacies of war economies in post-conflict resource-related capital inflows inflate currency peacebuilding; business and international values and crowd out unrelated industries like crimes; security and development in the manufacturing and agriculture; the volatility of South Pacific; and the rule of law in peace commodity prices; and the negative effects of operations. Her recent publications include: resource abundance on fragile political institu- Greater than the Sum of Its Parts? Assessing tions, which Sachs identifies as a consequence “Whole of Government” Approaches to of states’ ability to raise funds without taxation. Fragile States (International Peace Institute, Indeed, below-ground wealth in the develop- 2007), and The Pentagon and Global ing world is found in countries such as Nigeria, Development: Making Sense of the DoD’s Iraq, and Angola—known more for corruption, Expanding Role (CGD, 2007). conflict, human rights abuses, and authoritarian rule than for good governance or successful With oil prices becoming increasingly volatile, poverty-reduction programs. demand for energy rising in China and India, According to Sachs, “it has now been recog- and instability affecting key oil producers in the nized that transparency and accountability are Middle East, Escaping the Resource Curse surfs the remedies” for overcoming the curse. While the wave of interest in new oil-producing coun- this sentiment may overstate the extent to tries. Unfortunately, these producers—such as which a cure has been found, transparency and Sudan and several West African countries—are accountability are undoubtedly key ingredients, often better known for poverty, civil conflict, and the editors emphasize them throughout and political instability than for sound resource the analysis and policy recommendations that management policies. For these countries, make up the book. In keeping with their focus absorbing substantial new capital inflows with- on solutions, Escaping the Resource Curse aims to out succumbing to civil disorder or corruption offer countries that are potentially affected by poses quite a challenge—one made even more the curse a framework for effectively managing difficult by the set of economic and political their oil and gas reserves. distortions collectively known as the “resource The editors’ ambition is undeniable: In their curse.” This edited volume, in which leading attempt to present a workable solution to one academics, practitioners, and policymakers of the more bedeviling economic challenges of focus on overcoming the problems faced by recent years, they marry theory and practice states endowed with large oil and gas reserves, while addressing the curse’s socio-economic could not have come at a better time. and political effects. Arranged like a handbook The resource curse is commonly defined for policymakers in oil-rich states, the volume as the tendency of states with large reserves of is divided into three sections. Part I comprises natural resources, such as oil or diamonds, to particularly interesting (but somewhat cum- 98

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 bersome) chapters discussing ways for govern- than done). His chapter ends with a balanced, ments to improve their negotiations with oil thought-provoking, and cautionary discussion corporations, since greater understanding of of the promises and pitfalls of decentralization these processes—from deciding how and when as a method of countering regional inequality. to privatize, to evaluating the economic condi- The conclusion, co-authored by the editors, tions of an oil contract, to selecting a skilled attempts to bring all of the pieces of the resource negotiator—can create more transparency in puzzle together by making 13 recommenda- the oil industry itself. tions that span its economic, political, techni- The next two sections discuss the ways in cal, and theoretical aspects. Roughly two-thirds which natural resource management plays a of these recommendations target ways oil-rich key role in resource-rich countries once the governments themselves—and by extension taps have been turned on and oil revenue has their citizens—could reap greater rewards from started to pour into a country. Part II focuses on their resource wealth. The remaining four rec- the technical aspects of managing the macro- ommendations concentrate on how the interna- economy. It includes a chapter written by Sachs tional community could generate greater trans- that unpacks how and when oil wealth can parency and accountability in the oil industry. have deleterious effects on other economic sec- These proposals include setting stricter stan- tors, and recommends specific ways to reverse dards for multinational corporations and creat- this powerful trend. Macartan Humphreys and ing a worldwide public information office on Martin Sandbu contribute an engaging and oil and gas revenues that would build on the well-written chapter on using natural resource current “Publish What You Pay” initiative. One funds to push for better management of petro- the more interesting recommendations propos- leum revenues in the developing world. These es creating a global clearinghouse for all natural funds, which often employ escrow accounts, resource revenue funds. typically limit governments’ discretion to spend While most of the chapters reflect the latest oil money, attempting to conserve and direct thinking on the resource curse, and a few move the proceeds either by stabilizing oil revenues or that debate forward significantly, the volume by saving a portion for future use. The authors as a whole is a mixed bag. Escaping the Resource conclude that such funds will be sustainable Curse does not live up to its ambitious goal of only if they are accompanied by incentives for bringing together many different streams of political change. thought; instead, it is a rather disjointed collec- Part III picks up on this theme by focusing tion of discussions about economics, the macro- on the legal and political dimensions of creating economy, and political and legal issues. The real responsible revenue management policies and challenge—and the real need—is to figure out practices. In one of the only chapters to focus to the ways in which these issues intersect. Also, on minerals (as opposed to oil), Michael Ross the book sometimes fails to move beyond well- packs a lot of punch into his examination of the established debates on the resource curse or to effects of resource wealth distribution. While it make certain very technical ideas accessible to is popularly believed that mineral wealth cre- a more general audience—a definite flaw for a ates wider gaps between the rich and poor than volume targeted at policymakers. other forms of wealth, he concludes that the Most importantly, the book seems to give evidence is not yet strong enough to confirm short shrift to some of the most intractable this. Given the lack of data, Ross calls on states aspects of the resource curse. For example, to focus on creating policies that enable work- the authors do not explain how to convince ers to transition from “tradable” sectors such as an oil-rich governmental elite to initiate agriculture and manufacturing to “nontradable reform—a necessary prerequisite to negotiat- sectors” such as services (no doubt easier said ing with oil companies and establishing revenue 99

Environmental Change and Security program management systems. All too often, they simply nationalization, which has recast the balance assume that the political elite will be virtuous, of power between oil companies and produc- and thus do not explain how to achieve buy- ing states. While these omissions leave room in. The book also fails to account for China’s for further study, Escaping the Resource Curse is growing influence, which has transformed still an important contribution to a topic that is the reform landscape, as well as oil-industry unlikely to go out of style anytime soon.

Gaia’s Revenge: Climate Change and Humanity’s Loss By Peter H. Liotta and Allan W. Shearer Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007. 194 pages.

Reviewed by DAVID M. CATARIOUS, JR., and RONALD FILADELFO

David M. Catarious, Jr., and Ronald Liotta and Shearer make it clear that this book is Filadelfo work as research analysts at the not a history of or primer on climate science. In Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), where they fact, the third paragraph lists everything the book were members of the team that produced is not supposed to be, concluding that “instead, the April 2007 report National Security and this book is about the challenges that confront us the Threat of Climate Change. and finding ways to envision the most effective actions that may best taken” (p. 2). The authors review the changing definition In Gaia’s Revenge: Climate Change and of security; discuss the impact of different lev- Humanity’s Loss, Peter Liotta and Allan Shearer els of uncertainty on the mindset of decision- argue that scenario analysis can be a useful makers; and offer a framework for developing tool for policymakers searching for the proper and considering climate change-focused sce- response to the impending challenges presented narios. In describing why these scenarios are of by climate change. Over the course of seven such importance, they state: “We must create chapters, the authors move from presenting the representations that allow us to come to terms theoretical underpinnings of scenario develop- with [climate change]”. Gaia’s Revenge con- ment to discussing and critiquing an example cludes with a chapter on the current state of of a climate change-focused scenario developed the climate change debate in the United States, for the Department of Defense. Unfortunately, the difficulty of finding workable solutions, the the discussion is, at times, disjointed and not major issues threatening human security in the fully developed. Despite these drawbacks, Gaia’s coming century, and the need for action at lev- Revenge provides an interesting change of per- els other than that of the nation-state. spective for members of either the environmen- The book’s strength is its ability to provoke tal or security communities. discussion among policy- and decision-makers By looking only at the title, readers may mis- on opposite sides of the divide between the takenly expect to read about the past and future traditional security community and the newer effects of climate change on the planet and players in the security realm (e.g., the envi- human beings in particular. Early in the text, ronmental community). By discussing climate 100

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 change through a security lens, Gaia’s Revenge could help the traditional security community find a place for environmental issues in its policy portfolio. Conversely, the book can aid the nontraditional security community by providing them with a methodology and framework Since climate change and other “creeping for considering familiar issues from a new and useful perspective. vulnerabilities” differ from direct threats…we The third chapter, “Zombie Concepts and the Boomerang Effect,” will be of most interest will not deal with these problems effectively to both the national security and environmental if we continue to approach security concerns communities. In it, Liotta and Shearer review human and environmental security and argue from a military-centric perspective. that we must broaden the parameters that define national security to include them. They state that since climate change and other “creeping vulner- discuss the possible frameworks for construct- abilities” differ from direct threats (such as those ing scenarios and then describe the techniques posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War), used in the 2003 scenario. As currently orga- we will not deal with these problems effectively if nized, the second chapter seems to distract from we continue to approach security concerns from the book’s main purpose, and stands noticeably a military-centric perspective. Because creeping apart from the rest of the book. vulnerabilities do not have a clear culprit or poli- More problematically, Gaia’s Revenge reads cy solution, they often fall prey to the “do-noth- like a collection of separate essays sewn together ing” response. Reconsidering the cliché, “If all under one cover (as one could ascertain from you have is a hammer, then every problem begins the copyright acknowledgements). For example, to look like a nail,” Liotta and Shearer comment, the relevance of the material in the fifth chapter “It might be more apt to say that when one only (which covers different types of uncertainty) to the has a hammer, the problems that do not look like rest of the text is unclear. The concluding chapter nails are ignored” (p. 59). contains content useful to students of the debate While we believe that the material covered surrounding climate change, but does not serve as by Gaia’s Revenge is valuable, several aspects of a logical conclusion to the chapters that precede the book could use improvement. First, the it. The organizational problems, occasional repeti- book is mistitled; it has very little to do with tion, and dense content help make the text dis- the Gaia hypothesis, mentioning it only in pass- jointed and confusing in places. Upon reviewing ing. The title implies that the book will focus the book as a whole, the connections between the on the impacts of climate change, but the text sections become clearer, but Gaia’s Revenge would focuses on constructing scenarios. A more fit- have delivered a better experience had the authors ting title would help the book find an appropri- taken more time to excise extraneous material and ate audience. keep the text more tightly focused. Second, the book’s arrangement is awkward. While it is not for the casual reader and suf- The second chapter critiques the climate change fers from some organizational problems, Liotta scenario commissioned by the Department of and Shearer’s Gaia’s Revenge: Climate Change and Defense in 2003 (which is included as an appen- Humanity’s Loss is a valuable contribution to poli- dix to the text). However, this discussion comes cymakers and researchers working at the nexus of too early; it would have better for the authors to national, environmental, and human security.

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Environmental Change and Security program The Global Family Planning Revolution: Three Decades of Population Policies and Programs Edited by Warren C. Robinson and John A. Ross Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007. 470 pages Available online from http://www.worldbank.org

Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact Upon the Millennium Development Goals By the All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health (APPG) London: APPG, January 2007. 69 pages. Available online from http://www.appg-popdevrh.org.uk

Population Issues in the 21st Century: The Role of the World Bank By the World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007. 70 pages. Available online from http://www.worldbank.org

Reviewed by GIB CLARKE

Gib Clarke serves as senior program associ- years of successes, failures, and adjustments. ate for population, health, and environmental Editors Warren C. Robinson and John A. Ross issues for the Environmental Change and boldly claim that these case studies—all writ- Security Program and as coordinator of the ten by key program personnel—comprise a Wilson Center’s Global Health Initiative. history lesson for the next generation of family planning practitioners. The cases meticulously detail each program’s socio-economic, cultural, A trio of reports released in 2007—two from and political context, and include a full chron the World Bank, one from the UK Parliament— ology of events. The reader is indeed left with examine the past, present, and future of family a profound understanding of the family plan- planning programs. All three volumes highlight ning movement’s birth, struggle to grow, and successes and failures; elucidate best practices ultimate success. and lessons learned; and offer recommenda- The rich history in the case studies is sup- tions for next steps. plemented by a powerful introduction from The Global Family Planning Revolution: Three Steven Sinding, former director general of the Decades of Population Policies and Programs International Planned Parenthood Federation. offers 23 case studies of early national family Sinding provides a global context, present- planning programs, tracing their progress from ing the key debates (such as the importance idea to completion and covering as many as 30 of family planning and the best methods for 102

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 implementing national programs), critical Upon the Millennium Development Goals. This events and conferences, and influential organi- exclusion is potentially crippling to the family zations and individuals that helped shape fam- planning movement, as many funding decisions ily planning programs. and programmatic priorities are based on the In case after case, I was struck by the fact needs identified in the MDGs. Indeed, as the that these programs were truly pioneering, authors note, despite evidence that the unmet developed with little to no precedent, no mod- need for family planning is high (27 percent els to emulate, and no literature to consult. Due of women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan to the lack of precedent, the programs show Africa and 16 percent in Southeast Asia) and incredible variation in planning and execution. rising, funding for family planning has not kept Some programs were executed with support or pace (p. 15). Rather than decry population’s direction from the government, while others absence and argue for its inclusion as the so- stayed below the political radar. Some programs called “Ninth MDG,” the authors instead point worked principally through their health minis- to evidence—collected in UK parliamentary try, while others relied on population commis- hearings and submitted briefs—that attaining sions to coordinate the work of several agencies. the MDGs is not possible without addressing Finally, some programs stressed condoms, oth- population growth. ers promoted intrauterine devices (IUDs), and This accessible and clearly written report some changed commodities over time. is to be praised for its straightforward argu- Despite their differences, most of the pro- ments and easy-to-follow charts. Addressing grams were successful, with contraceptive prev- each MDG in turn, it identifies why contin- alence rates (CPR) increasing and total fertility ued population growth will make reaching the rates (TFR) declining. The level of success was identified targets more difficult for developing influenced by the particular methods of imple- countries. The report concludes with six simple mentation, but also seems to be a function of recommendations to donors and the family higher socio-economic status, education levels, planning community alike, focusing on remov- and the status of women in the country. ing financial, social, and technical barriers to Though much can be learned from the family planning. cases presented in The Global Family Planning For the most part, the arguments are sound. Revolution, it falls short in a few areas. First, Reaching the second MDG, achieving universal while the overwhelming majority of the world’s primary education, will be difficult under any high fertility countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, circumstances. Adding in population growth, the the book includes only two cases from that con- authors claim, means that some countries will be tinent. Second, the authors acknowledge that “running to stand still”; for example, countries coercion existed, but downplay its significance with high population growth need to add two too much; the Tunisian chapter, for example, million teachers per year to sustain a teacher- dismisses coercion as “not generalized” (p. 62). to-student ratio of 40, an already strained edu- For the family planning revolution to be reborn, cational environment (pp. 21, 29). Success on it must fully own up to its early mistakes. the third MDG, gender equality and women’s Whereas The Global Family Planning empowerment, is not possible until women have Revolution looks at largely successful programs the knowledge and means to control their own in the past, the All-Party Parliamentary Group fertility. Short birth intervals, a frequent com- on Population, Development and Reproductive ponent of high birth rates, often contribute to Health focuses on family planning’s total exclu- children’s poor nutrition, thus making the fourth sion from the United Nations’ Millennium MDG (reducing childhood mortality) more dif- Development Goals (MDGs) in its report, ficult to achieve. Lack of birth spacing, high-risk Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact pregnancies, and complications from unsafe 103

Environmental Change and Security program abortion can all decrease maternal health, which cation, economic status, or living situation— is the fifth MDG. The world is already facing usually limit access to information and services. difficulties with the seventh MDG, ensuring Members of disadvantaged groups are often not environmental sustainability, and population empowered to negotiate sex or make decisions growth—especially in areas where growing num- about their contraceptive use. bers of people are dependent upon limited stores Despite the World Bank’s confidence in its of forests, fish, or other natural resources—makes multi-sectoral approach, the authors are clear it harder still. about the challenges the Bank faces. First, On the other hand, the claim that popula- they point to severe under-funding of population growth—particularly urbanization—has a tion initiatives by donors, developing-country negative impact on efforts to fight HIV/AIDS governments, and international organizations and malaria (the sixth MDG) is less convincing. (including the Bank itself). Second, devel- Some experts argue that urbanization instead oping countries are not prioritizing popula- improves access to health services (UNFPA, tion—perhaps taking the signal from funders 2007). The relationship between popula- and the MDGs. World Bank strategic plans tion growth and poverty (the first MDG) is such as Country Assistance Strategy Reviews the subject of much controversy. Return of the and Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers address Population Growth Factor uses several instances population only occasionally, and when they of correlation between rising populations and do, the policies they include are usually not worsening poverty to make the case for family effective. Finally, the authors ask why Africa planning. Other studies are neither as conclu- has yet to share in the global success of fam- sive nor as optimistic; and some point out that ily planning programs. Why is the demand for the causal chain works both ways: Poverty can children so much higher in Africa than any- lead to higher fertility, as well (Kelley, 1998; where else in the world, despite declines in National Research Council, 1986; Pritchett, child mortality? Unlike most other developing 1997; Simon, 1981). countries, people in the majority of African Population Issues in the 21st Century: The countries list opposition to family planning Role of the World Bank picks up where Return and health concerns (in addition to wanting of the Population Growth Factor leaves off, with more children) as the principal reasons for not an assessment of the importance and relevance using contraception; relatively few women of population issues and recommendations for cite lack of access, funds, or knowledge. The future priorities for the field and for the World authors recommend researching what makes Bank in particular. The authors point out that Africa different in these respects, and how pro- while family planning programs have been tre- grams can be tailored to address these factors. mendously successful, 35 countries (31 of which The Role of the World Bank should be taken are in Africa) still have TFRs of five or higher. with a grain of salt, as the introduction states In some of these countries, the population will that its results are “preliminary and unpol- double or triple by 2050 unless dramatic steps ished…to encourage discussion and debate” (p. are taken. ii). No financial or programmatic commitments Population and development are intricately are attached to this report. Even so, it is a step linked, and this report identifies synergies at the in the right direction. World Bank, including those within the office Taken together, these three reports describe of Health, Nutrition and Population, which the family planning movement, providing a is well-positioned to tackle the multi-faceted useful history of the factors that have made issue of population. The authors focus on equi- these programs successful. They also describe a ty, both between and within countries, since movement in crisis as it grapples with its new inequities—whether due to age, ethnicity, edu- status and lower levels of funding. Now that it 104

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 is no longer the darling of donors such as the in The Global Family Planning Revolution show, World Bank, USAID, and private foundations, success did not come quickly or easily. The same is family planning content to reposition itself kind of patience and creativity demonstrated by and to play the “enabling” role in development these programs may well be required if family that the Parliamentarians describe? Or will planning is to achieve a comeback. it prove its worth once again as a stand-alone intervention? References The Role of the World Bank offers welcome signs that the negative tide that started at the Kelley, Allen C. (1998). The impacts of rapid population 1984 Mexico City population conference may growth on poverty, food production, and the environ- be beginning to turn. Return of the Population ment (Duke Economics Working Paper No. 98-13). Durham, NC: Duke University. Growth Factor cites the inclusion of universal National Research Council. (1986). Population access to reproductive health as a target under growth and economic development: Policy questions. the MDG on maternal health as a symbol of Washington, DC: National Academy Press. progress. But old debates about family plan- Pritchett, Lant. (1997, March). [Review of the book ning’s relevance and tactics are still evident. The ends of the earth]. Finance and Development To resolve them, the family planning commu- 34(1), 51. Simon, Julian L. (1981). Population: The ultimate nity should continue to document their positive resource. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. results on social and economic indicators, and UN Population Fund (UNFPA). (2007). State of the to loudly and consistently emphasize the volun- world’s population 2007: Unleashing the potential of tary nature of their programs. As the case studies urban growth. New York: UNFPA.

Governance as a Trialogue: Government-Society-Science in Transition Edited by Anthony R. Turton, Hanlie J. Hattingh, Gillian A. Maree, Dirk J. Roux, Marius Claassen, Wilma F. Strydom New York: Springer, 2007. 354 pages.

Reviewed by KARIN R. BENCALA

For many years, the field of water management Karin R. Bencala is a water resources plan- was dominated by large dam construction and ner at the Interstate Commission on the the belief that large-scale technological advanc- Potomac River Basin. Previously, she was a es could solve the world’s water challenges. program assistant with the Environmental Today, integrated water resource management Change and Security Program. She has a (IWRM) is the preferred (though not perfect) master’s degree in environmental science model; while it has existed in various forms and management with a focus in political for decades, only within the past decade has economy of the environment and freshwater it emerged as the new paradigm for managing management from the Bren School at the water and other resources to ensure a sustain- University of California, Santa Barbara. able supply of good-quality water for both people and the environment. Many water managers and implementing IWRM plans that must now grapple with the challenge of developing address the many disparate interests involved. 105

Environmental Change and Security program are the arenas in which information is trans- ferred between experts and other actors, personal relationships are built, and decisions are made. Each interface is briefly described in an introduc- tory chapter and referred to in a subsequent case Water management is truly an issue for study—although the government-society interface receives more attention than the interfaces everyone, whether you live in a developing or with science. As Michael E. Campana, Alyssa M. Neir, and Geoffrey T. Klise point out in their developed country, or in a water-rich or water- chapter on North America, all three groups do scarce region. not always have the same amount of influence on the process or the end result. Given the importance of these interfaces, it is unfortunate that the editors did not make more of an attempt to Governing water resources is clearly not a map the dynamics of each interface between the simple challenge with a single answer; success- three main actor-clusters. ful IWRM requires a detailed understanding of Part 1, “An Overview of Governance,” explores a region’s water and other natural resources, the ecosystem governance, offering those with lim- ability to make trade-offs between competing ited knowledge a basis from which to assess human and environmental uses for the water, the trialogue model. Malin Falkenmark’s chap- functioning institutions, and a legitimate gov- ter, “Good Ecosystem Governance: Balancing ernment that can see the plans to fruition. In Ecosystems and Social Needs,” steps back to Governance as a Trialogue: Government-Society- explore how the nature of ecosystems determines Science in Transition, Anthony Turton and his which resources can be governed and the way co-editors take a hard look at the elements of in which they should be governed. It succinctly governance, examining a “trialogue” model that describes water’s role in all ecosystems and the comprises the set of actors and their interactions essential function it plays in allowing humans to required to achieve management goals. While provide for themselves. While the five chapters in this book does not prove the model’s effective- this section repeat the definition of some terms ness, its investigation will be beneficial to those and explanations of conceptual topics, they cover attempting to flesh out the requirements for important ground: what governance is, what good water governance. makes for good governance, and how the process Turton, Hanlie J. Hattingh, Marius Claassen, plays out at varying scales. Dirk J. Roux, and Peter J. Ashton start by offer- Part 2, “Interrogation of the Trialogue Model,” ing a new definition of governance: “The pro- applies the model to ecosystems, but not always cess of informed decision-making that enables specifically to water. The case studies in this sec- trade-offs between competing users of a given tion each illustrate at least one of the model’s resource so as to balance protection with ben- interfaces. However, there is nothing tying the eficial use in such a way as to mitigate conflict, articles together to guide the reader through their enhance equity, ensure sustainability and hold evaluations of the model. This section’s analysis officials accountable” (p. 12). With this defi- could be improved by a set of graphics that iden- nition in mind, the authors have developed a tifies the interface being investigated and how working model of governance as a trialogue.1 the arguments either support or challenge the Turton and his colleagues conclude that three validity of the model. different actor-clusters in the governance pro- In her chapter, “Lessons from Changes in cess—government, society, and science—interact Governance of Fire Management: The Ukuvuka with each other in “interfaces.” These interfaces Operation Firestop Campaign,” Sandra Fowkes 106

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 shares lessons from a cooperative fire manage- understanding of governance as a process and as ment project and points out a few of the tria- a product, they propose to begin describing and logue model’s oversights. First, she observes that cataloguing the forms of the different interfaces. each actor-cluster’s influence is not necessarily This effort would bolster the model and help equal and can change depending on the situation. others interested in water governance apply these Furthermore, she questions whether or not sci- principles to their own situations. ence should be its own cluster, instead suggesting Governance as a Trialogue lacks discussion on that it should be viewed as a tool that the other leadership and power, two key aspects of gover- groups use in decision-making. She critiques the nance. While their influence is difficult to quan- model’s grouping of everything outside of gov- tify and varies drastically between situations, it is ernment or science into one large society cluster, difficult to ignore their importance. Leaders are arguing that combining such disparate groups essential for moving processes forward and for with varying interests and value systems simpli- helping factions reach consensus. Power dynam- fies the true nature of civil society. ics within a region or control over a specific body The third section of the book, “Cross-cutting of water—especially the roles of upstream and Governance Requirements,” digs into the downstream users—must be explored if we are to mechanics of the interfaces between the actor- understand how decisions are made. clusters. The chapters cover the need for a proper Good governance is now recognized as learning environment to educate managers and a way to tackle the world’s water challeng- decision-makers; communication’s essential role; es. Water management is truly an issue for and the missing dimension of time. One of the everyone, whether you live in a developing or most valuable in the book, this section provides developed country, or in a water-rich or water- perspectives on the actual process of the interac- scarce region. Many technological fixes exist, tions that make up governance. Linda Godfrey’s and others are continually being developed chapter, “Ecosystem Governance and the and improved, but we have lacked innovative Trialogue Debate: An Overview of the Trialogue strategies for implementation. Governance as Relationship and the Engagement Along a Trialogue reflects the growing attention to Interfaces,” delves into the role of science in the the problem of inadequate governance that trialogue model and explains how governance hinders the larger goal of sustainable develop- is affected by both the strength of engagement ment. The trialogue model helps the field focus and the rate at which this engagement plays out its attention on specific relationships between between the three groups. These rates are them- actors and the actions they take. Whether or selves affected by the environment in which these not this iteration is comprehensive does not interactions are taking place. matter as much as the fact that it furthers the The final chapter of the book revisits the nine discussion on the only sustainable solution to hypotheses initially proposed in the introduc- the water crisis. tion, reflects on the chapters’ case studies, and proposes a new research agenda. Turton and Note Hattingh find support for all of the hypotheses, but determine that a few need to be analyzed fur- 1. Turton et al. cite Malin Falkenmark as the first person to use the term “trialogue” to describe the inter- ther. They observe that the names of the actor- action between the three actor-clusters, “during a con- clusters are too simplistic and do not reflect the versation with one of the authors in Stockholm during highly complex processes at work. To further the the 2004 Stockholm Water Symposium” (p. 12).

107

Environmental Change and Security program The Greening of the U.S. Military Environmental Policy, National Security, and Organizational Change By Robert F. Durant Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2007. 283 pages.

Reviewed by BRIAN SMITH

Brian D. Smith is currently with a major con- on organizational change. As an organizational sulting firm and has served as a contractor to change textbook built around a well-vetted set the U.S. Department of Defense, supporting of historical cases, the book—which is well- environmental issues, for more than 10 years. written and easy to follow—succeeds admirably. He provided technical support to a number of However, based largely on my experiences and activities sponsored by several of the offices the experiences of my colleagues as contractors under the leadership of individuals referred to working on this process, I found a few impor- in The Greening of the U.S. Military. tant areas where I thought the book was lacking or inaccurate. Durant provides a generally accurate descrip- The Greening of the U.S. Military: Environmental tion of major events and significant movements, Policy, National Security, and Organizational including the Republican victory in the 1994 Change is a carefully constructed and well-orga- congressional elections and the subsequent nized account of the regulation of environmen- retrenchment by the Clinton administration— tal issues within the Department of Defense probably one of the most important reasons (DoD) and the armed services. Author Robert F. for the halting progress made during that time. Durant recounts and analyzes the organizational Efforts by the Clinton administration to reap changes that took place as the defense establish- the post-Cold War “peace dividend” by reduc- ment moved to comply with significant parts of ing military budgets—and the pressure from the environmental regulatory framework that Congress and local interests to quickly deal with governs civil enterprises. Though it looks as far facilities targeted for realignment and closure— back as the Truman administration, the book were key drivers toward realizing the benefits of focuses on the administrations of George H. W. a more environmentally friendly approach to the Bush and Bill Clinton, as well as the early parts management of military facilities and the acqui- of the George W. Bush presidency. sition of future systems. However, these drivers The book is organized around a few broad were also serious impediments to significant and themes that are carefully threaded through a systematic changes in defense culture and the series of issue-based case studies in self-con- attitudes both within DoD and the armed ser- tained chapters. Each of the chapters examines vices toward remediation and restoration efforts. a particular issue—such as base cleanup or the Durant’s description lacks a discussion of chang- Military Munitions Response Program—using es to the force structure itself and the cultural authoritative secondary sources and official behavior of the military in the face of heightened documentation; explains the issue’s histori- regulatory pressure and reduced budgets. cal context and relationship to other issues; Durant suggests that reduced military bud- and then discusses how that issue exemplifies a gets beginning in the early Clinton administra- number of important concepts in the literature tion led to reductions in the emissions of regu- 108

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 lated pollutants and toxic materials; however, the law to their specific cases. In many cases, he misses some key factors. When the budgets such as the munitions rule, the military and the were reduced, existing forces—including active regulatory agencies (notably the Environmental Army divisions, Navy carrier battle groups, Protection Agency) found themselves in the and Air Force wings—were also reduced, in uncharted territory of managing significant risk order to pay for the research, development, to future operations. and procurement of the next generation of Already a conservative organization, when weapons systems. The military chose to retain confronted with the possibility (real or per- and maintain its newer systems and retire older ceived) of having its operations curtailed, the systems that had been in service since Vietnam. military should be granted some leeway for mov- While some older systems were preserved, the ing slowly and cautiously. The unsettled global overall reductions resulted in a younger— strategic environment put enormous pressure and in many cases, less polluting—inventory on the defense establishment to be prepared to of systems than those used in Desert Shield deal with the unexpected, and thus maximize its and Desert Storm. The military’s response to options. While such slow and cautious move- the reduced budget was as important to the ment could be interpreted as obstructionist, I Faced with reductions in effluents as the budget reduction believe that it instead reflects the great difficulty itself. If, instead, the military had decided to faced by the DoD and the armed services in dealing with take the cuts across the board or largely out of adjusting their operational cultures in a consis- a number of research and development, the budget reduc- tent and uniform fashion. tion might have led to increased emissions, While Durant correctly identifies senior significant given the increase in operational tempo during civil servants as key to successful organiza- this time. The reduction tended to preserve the tional transformation, he does not address the changes in a older, pre-compliance ethic toward regulation expanded role of contractors and their impact short period of the military’s environmental performance. on organizational change. This role deserves Faced with dealing with a number of signifi- more in-depth discussion, as it is a major fea- period of time, cant changes in a short period period of time, ture of current day-to-day operations in the the military the military culture was only able to internal- defense establishment. He briefly addresses the ize so many. A discussion of that trade-off and firms that develop, build, and support the sys- culture was decision process is largely missing from The tems in the defense inventory (“metal benders”). Greening of the U.S. Military. However, the service contractors’ role in trans- only able to Durant appears to suggest that the military formation has greatly increased since the early internalize so conspired to systematically obstruct the applica- 1990s, as more technical, analytical, and sup- tion of federal environmental regulations to its port work has moved from the government to many. facilities and operations. He does not adequately private industry. Contractors have evolved from address an alternative hypothesis: that the DoD providing systems and system-specific support and the armed services were not adequately to providing general staff support and special- prepared to assimilate and operationalize these ized technical and analytical support. In many regulations. Much of his analysis is focused on cases, contractors become the organization’s a “post-compliance ethic” as the benchmark for institutional knowledge in times of change performance, when in reality, reaching a “com- among the senior leadership. pliance ethic” would have been a more appro- Finally, I found it curious that despite his priate threshold. He assumes that the defense extensive research, Durant did not interview establishment, acting as a nearly monolithic many of the key decision-makers referred to in whole, should have been prepared to accept the the book. While making extensive use of sec- regulatory regime, based in evolving case law, ondary materials and official documents, he reg- and transparently, rationally, and quickly apply ularly attributes strategies, beliefs, and actions 109

Environmental Change and Security program to individuals without having conducted inter- I believe would be central to understanding the views with them; notably, he did not speak to opportunities for and impediments to greening Sherri Goodman and Gary Vest, whose insights the U.S. military.

Peace Parks: Conservation and Conflict Resolution Edited by Saleem H. Ali Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007. 377 pages.

Reviewed by ROLAIN BOREL

Rolain Borel heads the Department of sary digressions. Although the majority of the Environment, Peace, and Security at the authors are from the United States, and only University for Peace in Costa Rica, where his seven are from the Global South, the cases cover main interests and teaching duties lie in the a wide geographical range. field of environmental conflict resolution. Two main factors explain the growing interest in international peace parks. Anne Hammill and Charles Besançon claim it reflects on the In Peace Parks: Conservation and Conflict growing commitment to bioregionalism and Resolution—brilliantly conceived and edited by the need to increase the geographic scale of Saleem H. Ali—31 authors explore the multi- conservation areas beyond national borders. ple ways in which environmental conservation On the other hand, Rosaleen Duffy argues zones can facilitate the resolution of territorial that peace parks are being promoted as a form conflicts. Ali concludes with “a sense of opti- of global environmental governance, reflect- mism” because the concept of international ing the wider shifts in global politics from peace parks (sometimes known as transbound- state governance to networks of international ary protected areas or trans-frontier conserva- organizations. According to Duffy, this gover- tion areas) is expanding rapidly (p. 341). The nance model is also related to the “extension of 17 case studies gathered in this volume show neoliberal market-oriented forms of economic that ecological factors have the potential to management”—i.e., revenues generated by eco- become instrumental in peacebuilding; how- tourism (p. 57). ever, much of the evidence is not fully conclu- Several of the articles address territorial issues: sive, and the role of peace parks in international Raul Lejano stresses that “territoriality has been affairs remains in the realm of the possible, not the subtext for violent conflict” and that it is of the certain. “ironic that territory is now being turned on Peace Parks is both broad and deep: Part I its head as an instrument of peace” (p. 41). In provides a historical overview and methodolog- their respective chapters, Ali, Michelle Stevens, ical and theoretical perspectives; Part II presents and Ke Chong Kim point out that interna- cases of bioregional management and economic tional peace parks can act as physical buf- development in existing peace parks; and Part fers (e.g., the Sierra del Condor between Peru III offers several visions of future peace parks. and Ecuador; the demilitarized zone between While most chapters are engaging, some contri- North and South Korea) or as sites of collabora- 110 butions are too long and burdened by unneces- tive exchange (e.g., “the informal exchange of

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 information on elephant poaching and security Ramutsindela and Ali point out, the “peace” in matters” between Tanzania and Mozambique, peace parks is not automatic, because it implies a described by Rolf Baldus et al. on p. 125). purpose and an impact that are not always pres- The case of the Kuril Islands, which lie ent. According to Hammill and Besançon, since between Japan and Russia, illustrates that ter- peace parks represent the “confluence of several ritorial problems are unlikely to be “solved by mutually reinforcing interests, namely those piling up historical arguments based on inter- of biodiversity conservation, economic devel- national law,” argues Jason Lambacher, who opment, cultural integrity, and regional peace asserts that a “new approach needs to unsettle and security,” integral assessment tools—such nationalist thinking, and defuse historical griev- as the Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment ances” as well as offer a “form of political com- (PCIA)—could be harnessed to measure prog- promise over the sovereignty issue” (p. 269). ress toward such broad objectives (p. 25). The In fact, it would be irrelevant which country is experience of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier formally designated the “owner” of the islands, Park in southern Africa, discussed by Anna as joint environmental stewardship will require Spenceley and Michael Schoon, illustrates the the other’s cooperation. difficulty of assessing the effectiveness of such For international peace parks to be effec- complex initiatives in economic, environmen- tive, certain conditions must be met. Two tal, and equity terms. chapters conclude that post-9/11 “security” Chapter authors attribute many positive measures pose, for example, a definite threat impacts to existing peace parks, including: to international peace parks straddling the borders between the United States and Canada • Improving the effectiveness of biodiversity or Mexico, in spite of a long history of coop- conservation in protected areas; eration between the countries. In less favorable situations, such as the proposed peace park on • Symbolizing ongoing cooperation (which, I Afghanistan’s borders discussed by Stephan argue, could also be attributed to joint efforts Fuller, the critical security situation poses an on many other issues, such as transportation, almost insurmountable obstacle. mail, or the electric grid); Border areas have their own peculiari- • Changing the symbolic meaning of a border ties, a life of their own independent from (see chapter by Ramutsindela); and the policies of the respective countries. In their chapter on Liberia, Arthur Blundell and • Reducing diplomatic tensions through joint Tyler Christie point out that people on either monitoring, collaborative research projects, side are often linked by kinship and mar- or joint funding proposals (see chapter by riage, as well as by local trade and culture. Yongyut Trisurat on Indochina). Relationships between actors in the immediate vicinity of the border are usually very fluid. Several of the authors also identify negative In their report on the Selous-Niassa elephant impacts. Ali points out that just as national corridor in East Africa, Rolf Baldus and his conservation efforts can create conflicts, so can co-authors state that border inhabitants more international peace parks. In addition to exacer- frequently share common underdevelopment bating political inequalities between local com- conditions than conflicts. Therefore, interna- munities and state actors, international peace tional peace parks must not impose externally parks can emphasize disparities between coun- designed processes on local stakeholders. tries, note Hammill and Besançon. Aissetou The second section of Peace Parks assesses Dramé-Yayé and her co-authors document the existing international peace parks by identify- security threat posed by criminals who find the ing their impacts and attempting to separate “W” Peace Park in West Africa a safe haven for their effects from other influences. As Maano their activities. 111

Environmental Change and Security program The chapters in the book’s third section efforts to decentralize and link up with local identify proposed peace parks and their possible communities are just window-dressing for top- benefits. While all the proposals demonstrate down, market-oriented interventions by inter- potential, the feasibility of several is question- national bureaucracies. able—not due to lack of resources (as donor As mentioned earlier, donors find the inter- interest is high), but because of lack of politi- national peace parks model attractive and may cal interest. This section, while inspiring, is help galvanize the establishment of shared weaker than the first two, because the feasibility management between border communities, for of implementing the proposed parks depends which state governments are not well-equipped. heavily on external factors. For example, Blundell and Christie call on A number of chapters discuss the different international partners to provide the funds processes that have been and could be used for a proposed international peace park along when creating an international peace park. Liberia’s borders in order to promote dialogue Some level of decentralization is inherent— between West African countries. and in itself problematic in most developing Ali concludes that “environmental coopera- countries, points out Dramé-Yayé et al. The tion is both a result of conflict mitigation and decision-making capacity of communities and leading to conflict reduction itself, in a dialecti- a cooperation model driven by bottom-up cal process of a non-linear and complex series of technical and situational demands are critically feedback loops in the conflict de-escalation pro- important to the success of such efforts, some cess” (p. 6). Peace Parks is a must-read for anyone authors argue. However, Duffy contends that interested in transboundary conservation areas.

People on the Move: Reducing the Impacts of Human Migration on Biodiversity By Judy Oglethorpe, Jenny Ericson, Richard E. Bilsborrow, and Janet Edmond Washington, DC: World Wildlife Fund & Conservation International Foundation, 2007. 93 pages. Available online from http://www.panda.org

Reviewed by JAMES D. NATIONS

James D. Nations heads the Center for prompted and stymied by factors such as politi- State of the Parks at the National Parks cal boundaries, population growth, and envi- Conservation Association in Washington, DC. ronmental damage. As they work to protect He is the author of The Maya Tropical Forest: Earth’s biological diversity, conservation plan- People, Parks, and Ancient Cities (University ners and practitioners must increasingly con- of Texas Press, 2006). sider the effects of human migration. In People on the Move: Reducing the Impacts of People have been migrating from one place to Human Migration on Biodiversity, co-authors Judy another since the first humans walked out of Oglethorpe, Jenny Ericson, Richard Bilsborrow, Africa into an uncertain future. Over the mil- and Janet Edmond point out that “responding lennia, our movement has become increasingly to migration is a relatively new concept for the complicated. Human migration today is both conservation sector” (p. viii). To help focus this 112

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 response, this book provides conservation plan- rural, and rural-to-rural migration, pointing out ners and protected area managers with an excel- that studies of rural-to-rural migration are less lent overview of contemporary human migra- prominent in the literature than the other types, tion, emphasizing its impacts on biodiversity. despite the fact that it can have the most serious They stress, however, that they “seek solutions consequences for natural ecosystems. that work for people as well as the environment: In a chapter titled “Deciding Whether and for both local residents and, where possible, the How to Intervene,” the authors write that no single migrants themselves” (p. viii). blueprint can be applied “to prevent migration or People on the Move offers a clear, concise dis- avoid its environmental impacts” (p. 25). Rather, cussion of the movement of human populations interventions must be carefully selected for each across landscapes and across international bor- situation. This well-constructed chapter reviews ders. As the authors point out, approximately interventions that may help conservation planners three million people migrate across interna- and protected area managers prevent migration, tional borders each year, and the number of influence its course, or reduce its adverse impacts internal migrants may be 100 times as large. on biological diversity and local populations. The The book’s survey covers long-recognized fac- text is complemented by a detailed matrix of pos- tors in migration, such as growing populations sible migration interventions—from local to glob- and increasing natural disasters, but it also dis- al scales—that considers such factors as areas of cusses emerging issues, such as globalization, origin, areas of destination, armed conflict, poli- climate change, and the increasing number cies, and the parties involved. of civil wars in the last century. Most impor- As the authors point out, People on the Move tantly, the authors provide documented case reviews “what’s in the tool kit” for confront- studies, maps, and graphs, as well as an action ing human migration in biodiversity-rich areas plan to improve our understanding of migra- (p. 29). They acknowledge that “it is too early tion and create effective approaches to mitigat- to draw conclusions about the most effective ing its impacts on the biological foundations interventions, because there are few docu- of human life on Earth. As they indicate, their mented examples and little monitoring of out- goal is to prompt “the development of practi- comes” (p. 55). However, their action plan is cal tools and new approaches for conservation designed to remedy these gaps and help coun- practitioners in the future” (p. viii). ter the ecological problems human migration After defining migration and outlining its can cause. potential impacts, the authors dedicate the In sum, these nine brief chapters of well-writ- bulk of the book’s chapters to 13 case studies in ten text present a state-of-the-art guide to human high-priority natural areas in Africa, Asia, and migration for conservation researchers, planners, Latin America. Each case study presents the fac- and practitioners. The book concludes with an tors that prompted the migration, the resulting illustrated and annotated list of published and impacts on ecosystems and human populations, online resources in this too-long neglected field. and what, if any, attempts were made to alter the As population growth, climate change, and outcome. Ten of these cases involved some form civil unrest continue, People on the Move will of intervention that altered migratory patterns in help guide our search for viable solutions to the high-biodiversity environments or mitigated the environmental impacts of human migration. impact on natural ecosystems and local people. The book will be useful to strategic planners Together, the case studies provide an excellent and on-the-ground practitioners of biodiversity overview of the complex “push” and “pull” fac- conservation throughout the world, as well as tors that prompt individuals, families, and com- to researchers seeking to understand the causes munities to move from one location to another. and consequences of the increasing movement of The authors look at rural-to-urban, urban-to- human populations in the 21st century. 113

Environmental Change and Security program Political Geography: Special Issue on Climate Change and Conflict Edited by Ragnhild Nordås and Nils Petter Gleditsch Volume 26, Issue 6, August 2007.

Reviewed by ELIZABETH L. CHALECKI

Elizabeth L. Chalecki is an adjunct profes- nor was it intended to be. The links between sor in the International Studies program of climate change and security are just emerging Boston College. She received her doctor- as fertile ground for both security practitioners ate from the Fletcher School of Law and and social scientists. Now, however, with world Diplomacy at Tufts University, for her disser- policy attention focused on climate, they rightly tation, “The CO2 Will Always Get Through: point out that these connections cannot be left National Security and Climate Change.” to tenuous connections in white papers. Nordås and Gleditsch recommend that future studies of the climate-conflict link should Given that the Nobel Committee awarded its better combine climate models and conflict 2007 Peace Prize to former U.S. Vice President models, and point out an inconvenient truth Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on about the IPCC reports: They only peripherally Climate Change (IPCC), and that greenhouse address the implications of climate change for gas emissions continue to increase around the security and conflict. Nordås and Gleditsch also globe, practitioners of peace and security will maintain that further research on climate and have to familiarize themselves with climatic conflict should: drivers of conflict. To that end, the journal Political Geography has devoted an entire issue • Differentiate between types of violence driv- to exploring the links between climate change en by climate change, including non-state and violent conflict. violence; In the issue’s opening article, “Climate • Recognize the capacity of humans to adapt Change and Conflict,” Ragnhild Nordås and to the positive and negative effects of cli- Nils Petter Gleditsch lament the lack of first- mate change; hand, peer-reviewed research on climate and • Take regional variations into account; and conflict, noting that “statements about secu- • Focus more on climate change’s security rity implications have so far largely been based implications for the world’s poor. on speculation and questionable sources” (p. 628). They cite some of the recent documents After these common-sense recommenda- addressing this linkage, including the paper tions, Nordås and Gleditsch veer off course for the Department of Defense’s Office of Net with their assumption that the world is becom- Assessment (Schwartz & Randall, 2003), the ing more peaceful and that the climate-conflict Center for Naval Analysis’ 2007 report writ- connection is “self-denying” (p. 635). They ten by retired military officers, two German point out that conflict models assume that reports (German Ministry of Environment, the future will look like the past, and they also 2002; WGBU, 2007), and the recent UN note that the “current trend toward a more Security Council debate (UN, 2007), among peaceful world” (a trend measured only since others. Nordås and Gleditsch are correct: Much the end of World War II) will not be reversed. of this literature has not been peer-reviewed, However, the climate models, which have been 114

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 extensively developed and reviewed, predict the on migration, he adapts the standard migration exact opposite: The future will not look like the literature to the problem of environmental refu- past. If, as the authors recommend, climate and gees, and argues that populations can respond conflict models should be more tightly coupled, to environmental changes in one of three ways: then the climate models must lead the way. by staying and doing nothing; by staying and The second article, “Climate Change, Human mitigating the effects; or by leaving the area. Security, and Violent Conflict,” by Jon Barnett Reuveny examines 38 cases in which envi- and W. Neil Adger, states that climate change ronmental factors played a role in migration, poses risks to human security because “the more from the Dust Bowl in the 1930s United people are dependent on climate-sensitive forms States to modern-day Bangladesh and Brazil. of natural capital…the more at risk they are from Since less developed countries are more reliant climate change” (p. 641). However, this sensi- on the natural environment for their liveli- tivity is mitigated by social and political adap- hoods, they are more vulnerable to the effects tive capacity, which varies by region and era. In of climate change. Environmental factors that one of their most interesting observations, the “push” people to migrate include degrada- authors point out that climate change-driven tion of arable land, droughts, deforestation, If, as the stresses can have a cascading effect, with failure in water scarcity, floods, storms, and famines, all authors one primary production sector causing a down- of which are predicted to intensify as the cli- stream industry to slow down, thus leading to a mate changes. Reuveny recognizes that envi- recommend, market failure, etc. While intervening variables ronmental factors do not work in isolation, are rightly identified, this cascade theory is still but argues that they nevertheless contribute climate and particularly noteworthy because the independent significantly to migration episodes. However, conflict models variable of climate change is the primary driver. “climate refugees” alone do not engender con- Barnett and Adger’s main finding is that cli- flict; instead, conflict arises when migrants of a should be more mate change will undermine human security different nationality or ethnicity move quickly in two key ways: by reducing the opportunities or in large numbers into countries that are tightly coupled, people have to provide for themselves and thus themselves suffering from limited resources. then the constricting their livelihoods; and by eroding Of the 38 migration cases Reuveny studied, 19 state capacity to provide the services that sus- resulted in conflict. climate models tain livelihoods and therefore peace. They rec- Reuveny concludes that it will cost more must lead the ommend three paths for future research, which in the long term to do nothing about climate I believe would all help conceptually strengthen change-induced migration than it would to for- way. the climate-conflict link: mulate a policy for addressing the issue. Citing two examples of public policy interventions in • Assess the relative vulnerability of people’s major migrations, he concludes that govern- livelihoods to climate change (by region); ment policy could help mitigate the effects of • Connect reduced livelihoods with violent climate change on conflict. However, he has no conflict (e.g., why do individuals choose specific policy recommendations for developed violence?); and countries, and warns of high costs without any • Examine how climate threatens state citations to back up his claims. Despite petering capacity. out at the end, Reuveny’s article is one of the more straightforward examinations of the links Rafael Reuveny, in “Climate Change-Induced between climate and conflict in the volume. Migration and Violent Conflict,” notes that In “Climate Change, Environmental climate-induced migration appears in many cli- Degradation, and Armed Conflict,” Clionadh mate change-to-violence scenarios. After study- Raleigh and Henrik Urdal report on their sta- ing the effects of other environmental problems tistical analysis of three climate change effects: 115

Environmental Change and Security program cropland degradation, freshwater scarcity, and Africa,” Cullen Hendrix and Sarah Glaser argue population displacement. They mapped data that sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to on these variables over grid squares of 100 km the conflict-provoking effects of climate change, x 100 km across the Earth’s surface, and then due to existing inequalities in resource access and overlaid intervening variables, including eco- distribution. However, Hendrix and Glaser find nomic and political factors like GDP and pol- no significant correlation between rainfall and ity scores. Raleigh and Urdal stress that more the onset of civil war, though they do recognize information can be gained by looking at sub- that the country-wide spatial scales they used national regions than from national averages, could mask local hotspots. since not all of a country’s territory is usually In “Environmental Influences on Pastoral under conflict at once, nor do environmental Conflict in the Horn of Africa,” Patrick Meier, stressors fall neatly within national boundar- Doug Bond, and Joe Bond cross-reference con- ies. Hence, local resource scarcity may be a flict data gathered from on-the-ground observ- better predictor of conflict than national-lev- ers in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda el scarcity. Most of their findings underscore with environmental indicators such as veg- the conventional wisdom that environmental etation, precipitation, and forage (pasture for stressors are indirect drivers of conflict, but grazing) in an attempt to determine whether they do find, surprisingly, that “degradation the latter might serve as possible harbingers of and scarcity variables are uniformly positively pastoral conflict. They find that environmental and significantly related to conflict” in higher- drivers are significantly correlated with the inci- income countries and less so in lower-income dence of organized pastoral raids, but not with states (pp. 688, 691). the number of human deaths or the amount of The co-authors recognize that their analy- livestock lost. sis suffers from one of the key weaknesses of All these articles conclude that conflict is a statistically-based conjectures about real world complex dependent variable, and that envi- events: The statistical mean often hides substan- ronmental measures of climate change do not tial regional or temporal variations. Conversely, provide sufficient explanatory power without the exclusion of information about one coun- taking into account intervening political and try or region can make an otherwise significant economic variables. In addition, most authors result statistically insignificant. For example, lament the incompleteness of the available data Raleigh and Urdal determine that omitting sets, which is only to be expected; many coun- data about Russia from one model negates the tries do not have the inclination or the where- connection between land degradation, water withal to gather and compile sub-national data scarcity, and conflict. Similarly, omitting data sets on environmental variables, and interna- about Niger from another model renders the tional agencies usually gather data only at the interaction between water scarcity and popula- national level. tion growth insignificant. Yet it is not difficult I have two main concerns with this issue. to imagine that, on a very local scale, these driv- First, the authors overuse the principle of cet- ers would be compelling. Just because a large- erus paribus—all other things being equal. But N study does not find a statistically significant when are all other things ever equal? Such a relationship between two variables across an relationship is a statistical convenience and does entire sample does not mean that the relation- not reflect the real world. Attaching too much ship might prove different if examined on a weight to the existence of a statistical relation- case-by-case basis. ship can shut down profitable avenues of inqui- The last two articles in the issue focus on ry into particular problems, especially if they do Africa. In “Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate not occur on a macro level. If statistical correla- Change, and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan tion is what Nordås and Gleditsch mean when 116

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 they look for “more rigorous analysis,” then References they could miss the forest for the trees. Center for Naval Analysis (CNA). (2007). National secu- Second, these articles generally appear rity and the threat of climate change. Alexandria, VA: to conflate the ideas of conflict and security, CNA Corporation. Available online at http://secu- assuming that if a region or nation is free from rityandclimate.cna.org conflict, then by definition it must be secure. German Ministry of Environment. (2002). Climate This assumption is faulty, as a nation does not change and conflict: Environmental policy. Bonn, Germany: Federal Ministry for the Environment, have to engage in conflict in order to be inse- Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety. Available online cure. The recent and startling data on Arctic ice at www.bmu.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/ melt provides a sterling example of an emerg- climges.pdf ing area of insecurity for many circumpolar Schwartz, Peter, & Doug Randall. (2003). An abrupt nations that has not (yet) devolved into con- climate change scenario and its implications for flict, whereas the pastoral conflict that Meier, United States National Security. Washington, DC: Environmental Media Services. Available online at Bond, and Bond examine does not rise to the www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climate_change. level of a national security threat (though they html#report do not claim that it does). United Nations. (2007). Security Council holds first-ever What the scholarly literature on climate and debate on impact of climate change, 5663rd meeting. conflict needs now is not more theory or more New York: United Nations, Department of Public Information. attempts at statistical correlation, but opportu- WBGU. (2007). Welt im Wandel e Sicherheitsrisiko nities to test out the existing theories on a sub- Klimawandel [World in transition and climate change national scale. This issue of Political Geography as a security risk]. Berlin, Germany: German Advisory has opened the door to an upcoming and Council on Global Change. Available online at http:// important field of research. www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_engl.pdf

Population, Land Use, and Environment: Research Directions Edited by Barbara Entwistle and Paul C. Stern Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2005. 321 pages.

Reviewed by DAVID L. CARR

As seen from space, land cover change is far and David Carr of the University of California, away the signature imprint of human habita- Santa Barbara, has served as principal inves- tion on the surface of the Earth. What is driv- tigator on grants from NASA, the National ing changes in land use and the environment? Institutes of Health, and the National Science What is the role of population? In addressing Foundation, and has authored more than 50 these questions, Population, Land Use, and publications on land use/cover change, pro- Environment presents the goals and research tected areas, migration, fertility, and health directions of the National Research Council’s in the tropics. (NRC) Panel on New Research on Population and the Environment along with state-of-the- art case studies. The three sections of this vol- Stern, focus on land use or land cover change ume, edited by Barbara Entwistle and Paul C. where population is a prominent driving force. 117

Environmental Change and Security program The first section reviews the state of knowledge nisms to facilitate interdisciplinary research. in the field; the second recommends research directions; and the third features 10 papers rep- How to increase coordination is hotly debated resenting current research trends. among human-environment scholars, but such The editors of Population, Land Use, and controversy aside, coordination is crucial to Environment observe that recent investigations achieving holistic policies. The second recom- have expanded our understanding of the influ- mendation may understate the role of other fac- ence of human population on the environment tors, particularly economics. Exploring cross-scale to a host of factors beyond mere population interactions remains a major challenge, which is growth, including migration, population densi- admirably if incompletely addressed in many of ty, and age structure. They understate, perhaps, the research papers included in the volume. the fact that population variables by themselves Developing linked datasets is a key step in rarely emerge as overwhelmingly predominant moving beyond disaggregated local case stud- forces driving land-use change; much more ies and large-scale regional and global efforts commonly, they operate in tandem with socio- informed by unreliable or inconsistent data. economic, political, and ecological processes. For example, we could leverage the compara- More than a decade of research on popula- tive advantage of existing large-scale surveys tion-environment interactions has produced that cover areas of dynamic human-envi- studies tracking population, land use, and ronment interactions such as the USAID- environment dynamics over several (or more) sponsored Demographic and Health Surveys years in diverse geographic regions. These (DHS). Advances in novel techniques such as research projects were catalyzed by targeted agent-based modeling, spatial and hierarchical land use/cover change funding mechanisms statistical approaches, and the integration of and the emergence of international research methods from the physical and social sciences networks, including the international Land have furthered efforts to model causal rela- Use/Land Cover Change Project and its suc- tionships. Additional synergy is promised by cessor, the Global Land Project, hosted by the funding mechanisms of the National Science International Human Dimensions Programme Foundation and the National Institute of Child on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) Health and Human Development, which pro- and the International Geosphere-Biosphere mote cross-disciplinary research and integrated Program. Importantly, such research has also curricula. The emergence of scholarly net- been enhanced by technological innovations works and institutions such as IHDP and the in remote sensing from space. Population, Land Population-Environment Research Network Use, and Environment offers seven recommen- (PERN) has also facilitated such interdisci- dations for researchers in the field, including: plinary work. As more research funding moves toward climate change mitigation and adapt- • Increased coordination; ability, funders should be reminded that land- • The examination of causal relationships use change is intimately associated with climate among specific component factors of popu- outcomes and their impact on human and nat- lation, land use, and environment; ural systems. • The combining of population, land use, and The third and final section of Population, environmental variables; Land Use, and Environment presents 10 research • The exploration of cross-scale interactions; papers that exemplify recent population and • The development of linked datasets; land-use research. Two papers focus on agricul- • Increased efforts to model and quantify tural frontiers with dramatic population and for- causal relationships among population, land est cover change. “Population and Environment use, and environment; and in Amazonia: Landscape and Household 118 • The identification of highly effective mecha- Dynamics” by Emilio F. Moran, Eduardo S.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 Brondizio, and Leah K. VanWey challenges and Land Use Change” by Gunther Fischer and the orthodoxy of a linear relationship between Brian C. O’Neill asks the important question of population size and deforestation. Survey and how case study research can best inform global land-cover data from multiple years demonstrate analyses, concluding that spatially explicit analy- non-linear relationships between demographic ses at a large regional scale are most suitable. variables, land use, and primary and secondary “Beyond Population Size: Examining forests in the Brazilian Amazon. “Population Intricate Interactions Among Population Change and Landscape Dynamics: The Nang Structure, Land Use, and Environment in Rong, Thailand, Studies” by Stephen J. Walsh et Wolong Nature Reserve, China” by Jianguo Liu al. integrates time-series data of remote images et al. addresses a socio-political conundrum fac- with socio-economic and demographic surveys. ing protected areas throughout the world: How Similarly pioneering methods are employed can policies mitigate human impacts on eco- in “Economies, Societies, and Landscapes in logical systems? The authors suggest that relo- Transition: Examples from the Pearl River cating young people out of the Wolong Nature Delta, China, and the Red River Delta, Reserve is more socially acceptable than relocat- Vietnam” by Karen C. Seto, which investi- ing other groups, while also being more ecologi- The conversion gates economic and political policies that could cally effective and economically efficient. impact land-use change and urbanization. Two “People, Land Use, and Environment in of forests to other studies investigate urban land-use change. the Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico” by Pamela agriculture by “The Urban Ecology of Metropolitan Phoenix: Matson et al. presents cross-disciplinary work A Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Study” by incorporating land-use and management deci- rural people Charles L. Redman highlights historical, demo- sions from the bio-geochemical cycle to farm- graphic, and socio-economic factors in urban- ers’ decision-making processes. The project still leaves the ization and its effects on agricultural land, pioneers the combination of various scales largest human biodiversity, and human-environment nutrient and data sources within a vulnerability and flows, demonstrating the importance of inte- resilience framework. Another study on farm- footprint on grating multiple scales in studies of human and ing systems, “Population and Environment in natural systems. “Patterns of Urban Land Use the U.S. Great Plains” by Myron P. Gutmann the Earth’s as Assessed by Satellite Imagery: An Application et al. uses county-level data to investigate rural surface, with to Cairo, Egypt” by John R. Weeks, Dennis population change, cropland expansion, and P. Larson, and Debbie L. Fugate develops an soil chemistry changes across the U.S. farm belt consequences “urban index” through the use of remote sensing during the past century. to pick up signals that can be used to estimate While each study incorporates elements of both injurious the percent of land surface that is impervious to the panel’s research agenda, they incompletely and benevolent. water (e.g., pavement and buildings). integrate social and natural sciences across tem- Two papers examine population-land use poral and spatial scales. The studies are all miss- relations at the national level in Asia. “A Review ing a Meso-scale link between local and region- of 10 Years of Work on Economic Growth and al, economic and political land-use policies, Population Change in Rural India” by Andrew proving that the field remains in its infancy. Foster matches survey data from several thou- Nevertheless, the editors and researchers dem- sand households across India between 1971 and onstrate the previous decade’s remarkable prog- 1999 with concomitant satellite data. Research ress and fruitful avenues for further growth. suggests that continued high fertility, popula- Challenges facing future research include link- tion growth, and increased road access accom- ing social and environmental data, collecting panied modest but notable reforestation, which data at the appropriate levels of resolution, was enabled by agricultural intensification and comparing data across sites and time, and mov- attendant enhancement of agricultural yields. ing from descriptive studies to those that can “Global and Case-Based Modeling of Population reasonably find causality. Moreover, even in 119

Environmental Change and Security program light of recent strides, interdisciplinary collabo- ers of land-use change. As research agendas shift ration remains a challenge. towards climate change, human vulnerability, Climate change has emerged as the topic du urbanization, and aging, the conversion of forests jour, and human population and land-use inter- to agriculture by rural people still leaves the larg- actions are both major causes of greenhouse gases est human footprint on the Earth’s surface, with and viable avenues for their reduction. At a time consequences both injurious and benevolent. when urbanization and aging have replaced rural The improved understanding of the connection population growth and youthful population between human activity and environmental con- structures as the most-discussed demographic cerns demonstrated in Population, Land Use, and trends of the new millennium, the demands of the Environment, which synthesizes more than a rural population change and urban consump- decade of population-land use research, is both tion on rural systems remain the primary driv- exciting and daunting.

Poverty Reduction: An Effective Means of Population Control By Mohammed Sharif London: Ashgate, 2007. 184 pages.

Reviewed by RACHEL NUGENT

Rachel Nugent is deputy director of the development discussions of our day. Center for Global Development’s Global Fertility decisions are driven by a compli- Health Programs. She has 25 years of experi- cated set of social, economic, cultural, and ence as a development economist with the technological conditions that are difficult to Population Reference Bureau, the Fogarty sort out. Government policy may be a minor International Center of the U.S. National influence on the fertility component of popula- Institutes of Health, and the UN Food and tion growth, but in some places and times it can Agriculture Organization, among others. be an important agent of change, even simply by changing decisions at the margin. However, it is not easy to measure the impact of govern- Population policy in developing countries ment policy—or any other factors—on fertility. has long been a controversial topic, not least Therefore, research has been sometimes contra- because the vast amount of research devoted to dictory, sometimes inconclusive, and the stron- understanding the key determinants of fertility gest results are highly site- and program-specific behavior has been inconclusive. In addition, (see, e.g., Robinson & Ross, 2007; Schultz, because population raises sensitive and ideo- 1997). In Poverty Reduction: An Effective Means logical issues, population policy has been mired of Population Control, Mohammed Sharif in political debates. The combination of slow attempts to use both theoretical and empiri- progress in both the research and policy spheres cal analysis to take a fresh look at the topic. on the role of population growth in develop- Unfortunately, the book is contradictory and ment, and what governments should do to inconclusive—and certainly not fresh. influence that growth, has pushed this crucial Until very recently, policy advocates and 120 topic to the sidelines of most of the important researchers seemed to agree that high rates of

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 population growth adversely affect development lies. Unfortunately, the analysis presented is and poverty, and that family planning policies largely undermined by the failure of his data are important tools of development assistance. and methodology to adequately answer “what Recently, however, attention to international causes what?” population issues has declined alarmingly, Sharif compiled data on poverty and related stemming from a combination of complacency variables for 83 developing countries from vari- (due to lower population growth in some coun- ous UN sources to test multiple specifications tries) and a paucity of effective tools to meet the of his model. With countries as the unit of anal- ongoing twin challenges of poverty reduction ysis, he finds that high fertility is not a cause of and fertility reduction (Cleland et al., 2006; poverty, and illiteracy is not causally related to Gwatkin, Wagstaff, & Yazbeck, 2004). contraceptive prevalence. Sharif concludes that While fertility has declined in many develop- the fertility choices of poor developing-country ing countries, and most of the developed world citizens are rational, and argues by implication is experiencing stagnant or declining popula- that international family planning advocates tions, the “population problem” is not solved. have failed because they have not understood In 16 developing countries, total fertility rates poor families’ choices and decision-making exceed 6.0, and low contraceptive prevalence is processes. Half of Sharif’s message is certainly a major barrier to development (PRB, 2008). right: Poor people are rational. But they are Fifty-five countries have fertility rates of 4.0 also extremely constrained in their choices, The highest and higher. Depending on death rates in those access to information, and time horizons. As a fertility rates are countries, this implies their populations will result, their choices may not be optimal—for double in 17 years or less. Finally, in these and themselves or society. Sharif does not explore generally found other developing countries, the highest fertil- this possibility, and therefore the book does not among the ity rates are generally found among the poorest advance our knowledge of what policies would fifth of the population. Thus, the question of be useful in reducing these constraints. poorest fifth of population growth and its relationship to pov- Setting aside the book’s polemics attacking erty is not inconsequential, leaving substantial international family planning advocates, Sharif’s the population. room for debate about appropriate policies. cross-country analysis of the determinants of Mohammed Sharif’s book takes us back to poverty suffers from measurement and econo- an earlier time by re-opening the debate about metric issues—not the least of which is the whether family planning is good for poor fami- problem of intervening variables. No reasonable lies. Sharif’s main arguments are that high fer- person doubts that poverty affects childbearing tility is a rational, often beneficial choice for decisions in a household, and that numbers of poor families; and that poverty makes a higher children affect a household’s likelihood of being number of children desirable. He concludes impoverished—but many other variables inter- that only reductions in poverty will bring down vene as well. Researchers have spent years trying fertility rates among the poor. Sharif examines to specify models in which fertility choice can these assertions empirically, and then derives be isolated from the variables that determine policy implications from the results. it. Yet Sharif cites almost none of the volumi- Researchers on this topic have always faced nous empirical and methodological literature in the challenge of demonstrating a direct causal this area (e.g., Birdsall et al., 2001; Eastwood relationship between poverty and fertility. & Lipton, 1999; Schultz, 2005; Livi-Bacci & Many correlates of poverty are also associated De Santis, 2004; Oxford, 1994). And some of with high fertility rates. How do we know his results are anomalous; for example, he finds what causes what? Sharif devotes much of that—in addition to fertility—urbanization his book to cross-country regression analysis and illiteracy have no effect on poverty. intended to demonstrate that poor people may It is difficult to compare Sharif’s data and be acting rationally in choosing large fami- results with other studies. For his preliminary 121

Environmental Change and Security program assessment of poor people’s rationality, he relies challenges of separating determinants of fertility on (quite old) data from the government of from those of poverty and other related factors. Bangladesh, even while noting its poor reliabili- Most observers would not doubt Sharif’s ty. He uses the UN Statistics Division for cross- assertions that there are close links between country data, but not the Demographic and fertility and his selected variables. Where Health Surveys for important variables such as they would part from him is in accepting the unmet need, which is commonly defined as the anomalous results of his econometric analy- percentage of women or couples who wish to sis, and in deriving policy conclusions from postpone or avoid pregnancy but who do not those inconsistent and confusing relation- use contraception. ships. Policymakers will obtain little guidance What causes high fertility? Sharif calculates in finding the road ahead from this backward both poverty and fertility as functions of inde- look at population policy. pendent variables, and then in the second stage estimates each as a function of the predicted References value of the other. He finds that fertility and poverty are negatively related. He interprets this Birdsall, Nancy, Allen C. Kelley, & Steven Sinding. (2001). Population matters. Oxford: Oxford finding to mean that children serve as assets for University Press. poor, rural families and are therefore desired. Cleland, Bernstein, et al. (2006). “Family planning: Thus, he concludes that high fertility is not The unfinished agenda.” The Lancet 368, 1810- only a rational, but also a beneficial choice for 1827. poor people. Eastwood, Robert, & Michael Lipton. (1999). “The Sharif acknowledges that family plan- impact of changes in human fertility on poverty,” The Journal of Development Studies 36(1), 1-30. ning programs have increased contraceptive Gwatkin, Davidson R., Adam Wagstaff, & Abdo use across the world, but points out that the Yazbeck. (Eds). (2004). Reaching the poor increase is found largely among the well-off in with health, nutrition, and population services. developing countries, and not among the poor. Washington DC: World Bank. He faults the UN Population Fund for pushing Livi-Bacci, Massimo, & Gustavo De Santis. (2004). family planning as the solution to high fertility, Population and poverty in developing countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press. and recommends that policymakers focus on Oxford, Cassen. (Ed.) (1994). Population and develop- other factors that underlie poverty. ment: Old debates, new conclusions. New Brunswick, In these conclusions, Sharif may be half- NJ: Transaction Publishers. right. It is reasonable to push for poverty reduc- Population Reference Bureau (PRB). (2008). World tion through a multi-pronged approach that population data sheet 2008. Washington, DC: PRB. Robinson, Warren C. & John A. Ross (Eds.). (2007). addresses underlying causes. No country or The global family planning revolution. Washington, global policymaker would dispute the impor- DC: World Bank. tance of that goal. But what is the policy les- Schultz, T. Paul. (1997).“The demand for children in son from his finding that high fertility reduces low-income countries.” In Mark R. Rosenzweig & poverty? And how much can we rely on that Oded Stark (Eds.), Handbook of population and family finding? Unfortunately, despite the benefit of a economics (pp. 349-430). Amsterdam: North Holland. Schultz, T. Paul. (2005). Effects of fertility decline much stronger intellectual foundation to draw on family well-being: Opportunities for evaluat- upon than earlier population policy researchers, ing population programs. New Haven, CT: Yale Sharif has not made headway in the analytical University.

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ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 The Price of Neglect: From Resource Conflict to Maoist Insurgency in the Himalayan Kingdom By Bishnu Raj Upreti Kathmandu, Nepal: Bhrikuti Academic Publications, 2004. 446 pages.

Reviewed by SALEEM H. ALI

Although surrounded by conflict over the last Saleem H. Ali is an associate professor of two centuries, the Himalayan nation of Nepal environmental studies at the University of has been resilient in the face of colonialism. Vermont’s Rubenstein School of Natural Even during the British Raj, the feudal rulers of Resources, and is on the adjunct faculty Nepal managed to stay relatively independent of Brown University’s Watson Institute for by offering diplomatic and military support to International Studies. His most recent edited the British. However, for 10 years, contempo- volumes are Earth Matters: Indigenous rary Nepal was beset by a civil war that killed Peoples, the Extractive Industries and 13,000 people. A fragile peace agreement signed CSR (Greenleaf, 2008), and Peace Parks: in 2006 led to historic elections in April 2008, Conservation and Conflict Resolution (MIT Press, 2007). http://www.uvm.edu/~shali/ but the years of internal strife exacted a serious toll on the country. Overtly, the conflict began as an ideologi- capital, Kathmandu. In the book’s first six chap- cal clash between a monarchic system and a ters, Upreti offers an introduction to resource socialist egalitarian ideology influenced by the conflict, covering theories of conflict and their writings of the Chinese revolutionary leader application to environmental resources such as Mao Zedong. The Maoists differentiate them- water and forests. The author uses examples to selves from classical communists because the demonstrate the importance of resource con- strength of Nepal’s proletariat lies with the rural flict’s cultural context; for example, those seek- peasantry rather than the urban working class. ing to understand the conflict over the Asian While many of the key Maoist leaders are high- Development Bank-funded irrigation project ly educated intellectuals (including Baburam in Andherikhola must consider the Hindu caste Bhattarai, who was trained in environmental system, which is still prevalent in Nepal. South planning), they clearly tapped key grassroots Asian graduate students will find this contextu- factors that supported the rise of this move- alized introduction to resource conflicts most ment among the masses, such as elite corrup- useful—and affordable too, since the book was tion and marginalization of rural areas by the published in Nepal. urban economy. It is particularly surprising that Upreti uses some rather unusual quotations the movement gained traction at a time when to highlight the importance of environmental most other communist states, including China conflicts, such Fidel Castro’s speech at the 50th and Vietnam, began tacitly moving towards a anniversary of the World Health Organization capitalist economic model, while retaining cen- indicting the “blind and uncontrollable laws of tralized political control. the market” for environmental degradation. Yet Bishnu Upreti’s book, The Price of Neglect: he misses an opportunity to link such anecdotal From Resource Conflict to Maoist Insurgency in references and quotations to the book’s larger the Himalayan Kingdom was published in 2004, theme. Analyzing such rhetoric in the context just as the Maoist insurgency was reaching a of the Maoists’ manifesto would have been illu- fever pitch and violence was spreading to the minating; for example, it is ironic that Upreti 123

Environmental Change and Security program links the rebellion and resource depletion since strategic interdependence is not adequately dis- Mao’s own philosophy was deliberately anti- cussed in the book and deserves greater atten- nature (Shapiro, 2001). tion by security scholars. As transboundary The last four chapters of The Price of Neglect, cooperation becomes even more of an ecologi- which are devoted to analyzing the role of cal necessity, the shifting balance of power may resources in the Maoist conflict, are the most provide a vent for social movements predicated widely marketable. Upreti blames both the land on inequality. tenure tradition of guthi, which is meant to be The book’s useful appendices provide a first- a trust but is often exploited by the culturally hand narration of Maoist demands and gov- elevated elite, as well as the panchayat system of ernment counter-offers, as well as the corre- communal governance, for the Maoist uprising. spondence between Baburam Bhattarai and the A patriarchal kinship system, guthi is an impor- International Crisis Group. However, further tant social structure among the Newar indig- analysis of these exchanges in the light of some of enous communities of the Kathmandu valley. the earlier chapters of the book would have pro- Under the more widely practiced panchyat gov- vided greater structural continuity to the text. ernance structure—found throughout South The Price of Neglect ends on an optimistic Asia—village elders act as a dispute-resolution note, stating that the Maoist conflict was not council. However, the elders are often not related to ethnicity or territorial separatism selected by the community but rather through and hence should be easy to resolve, since it is arcane preferences of family lineage. fundamentally about internal political reform. Unfortunately, Upreti does not explore some The 2006 treaty seems to prove Upreti right, of the more interesting environmental aspects but will the Maoist-led government maintain of the rebellion. For example, how does forest the peace? Despite the shortcomings outlined degradation and overuse of land correlate with above, Upreti’s book is a worthwhile effort at the Maoists’ regional strengths? Some prelimi- bringing local flavor to resource conflict dis- nary research in this regard by Jugal Bhurtel and course in South Asia. myself (2009) could have been further developed in this book. Also, a detailed ethnographic References analysis would have helped explain the potential linkages between resource degradation and Bhurtel, Jugal, & Saleem H. Ali. (2009). “The green conflict. In addition, Upreti does not address roots of red rebellion: Environmental degradation and the rise of the Maoist movement in Nepal.” the possibility that the conflict itself has led In Mahendra Lawoti & Anup Pahari (Eds.), The to immense environmental damage, creating a Maoist insurgency in Nepal: Dynamics and growth in negative feedback loop (Murphy et al., 2005). the twenty-first century. New York: Routledge. Another missing element is India’s perceived Murphy, Mark, Krishna Prasad Oli, & Steve Gorzula. influence on Nepal—the diminution of which (2005). Conservation in conflict: The impact of the is an ardent part of the Maoist agenda. By lever- Maoist-government conflict on conservation and biodiversity in Nepal. Winnipeg: International Institute aging environmental factors such as water avail- for Sustainable Development. ability and hydropower potential, Nepal could Shapiro, Judith. (2001). Mao’s war against nature. potentially increase its influence on India. This Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 Security By Other Means: Foreign Assistance, Global Poverty, and American Leadership Edited by Lael Brainard Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 2007. 364 pages.

Reviewed by SEAN PEOPLES

The calls for a more effective U.S. foreign assis- Sean Peoples is a program assistant for the tance framework have been deafening lately. Environmental Change and Security Program Although official foreign aid has increased sub- (ECSP). His areas of focus include the rela- stantially over the last five years, its fragmented tionship between demographic dynamics, organization and lack of clear strategic objectives natural resources, and broader development have come under fire. Many prominent voices issues. Prior to joining ECSP, he worked in the development community argue that sub- as associate director for Congressional stantial reform is needed to effectively alleviate Programs at the Population Resource Center. poverty, strengthen security, and increase trade and investment in developing countries (e.g., Sewell, 2007, Sewell & Bencala 2008; Patrick, ing world” (Bazzi, et al. 2007, p.1). In the first 2006; Desai, 2007). CARE International’s chapter of Security By Other Means, Brainard announcement that it would forgo $45 million explains that aid is not distributed purely on a year in federal funding is a clear indication that the basis of need: “In dollar terms America con- our development strategy is still plagued by sig- tinues to place far greater emphasis on bribing nificant problems (Dugger, 2007). In Security By non-democratic states than on promoting their Other Means: Foreign Assistance, Global Poverty, democratization” (p. 18). and American Leadership, several leading schol- The inefficiency and fragmentation of the ars—including Steven Radelet, Charles Flickner, current U.S. foreign aid structure stems from and Lael Brainard—offer innovative approaches several cumulative factors, including: numerous to reforming U.S. foreign assistance. competing strategic objectives; conflicting man- This Brookings Institution volume, edited dates among government and non-governmen- by Lael Brainard, joins the growing chorus of tal organizations; congressional and executive criticism of foreign assistance reform in offer- branches jockeying for control; and countless ing a clear set of first steps. In his 2007 paper organizations with overlapping efforts. Wading for Brookings, Desai recommends consolidat- through the web of legislation, objectives, and ing the numerous aid agencies and departmen- organizations comprising U.S. foreign assis- tal programs into one cabinet-level department tance efforts is a dizzying exercise. for international development. Stewart Patrick Helping us untangle this confusing web is (2006) advocates a complete overhaul of the Security By Other Means, which compiles the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act, given the out- findings of the Brookings Institution-Center moded law’s lack of clarity. In another report, for Strategic and International Studies Task Patrick and his former colleagues at the Center Force on Transforming Foreign Assistance in for Global Development analyzed President the 21st Century into a manual of sorts for Bush’s FY2008 budget and found that “the reforming foreign assistance. Not shying away U.S. continues to devote a relatively small share from the nitty-gritty of foreign assistance pol- of its national wealth to alleviate poverty and icy, the book’s contributors delve deep into the promote self-sustaining growth in the develop- current development assistance framework and 125

Environmental Change and Security program recommend valuable reforms, which include: needed discourse not only on foreign assistance, integrating strategic security concerns; formu- but also on U.S. foreign policy in general. The lating clear objectives; understanding recipient authors provide a timely service for the new country capacities; and building effective part- presidential administration by taking an inte- nerships that exploit comparative advantages. grated look at development challenges and dis- Covering a wide range of development chal- couraging the use of cookie-cutter approaches lenges, some chapters offer prescriptions, while to foreign assistance allocation and humanitar- others provide case studies or context. In his ian interventions. chapter on strengthening U.S. development Some readers may find Security By Other assistance, Steven Radelet, a senior fellow at Means lacking. For instance, Capitol Hill staff- the Center for Global Development, rightfully ers would likely find a condensed and more highlights how poorly U.S. assistance is allocat- visually stimulating version of greater utility. ed: “Significant amounts of aid go to middle- Policy wonks would benefit from several more income countries that have access to private sec- case studies peppered within appropriate chap- tor capital and have graduated from other aid ters. Prominently placed case studies strongly programs” (p. 100). support Cronin’s chapter on development in As food insecurity, violent conflict, and natu- conflict contexts, but other chapters did not ral disasters wax and wane, humanitarian assis- give cases the same emphasis, even though suc- Wading through tance continues to expand in scale and scope. cessful reform requires learning from past mis- the web of Steven Hansch’s sobering chapter provides a takes and successes. blueprint for the ways the United States can At a July 2007 Senate Committee on legislation, draw on its military’s comparative advantages Foreign Relations hearing on foreign assistance, objectives, and and more effectively coordinate the world’s then-Director of U.S. Foreign Assistance and donors for emerging humanitarian needs. U.S. Agency for International Development organizations Patrick Cronin argues that conflict prevention Administrator Henrietta Fore committed to can be integrated into development reform: “A simplifying the process and integrating the comprising serious—but realistic—capacity to turn swords numerous spigots of money flowing outward. U.S. foreign into plowshares and prevent conflict before it Brainard and two other leading experts on begins must be a core mission of the U.S. gov- foreign assistance—Sam Worthington, presi- assistance ernment in the twenty-first century” (p. 161). dent and CEO of InterAction, and Radelet— Building and strengthening the capac- testified that rapid globalization and the inevi- efforts is ity for creativity within the legislative branch table integration of international economies a dizzying is also critical. Charles Flickner, former staff are the impetus for a more unified and har- director for the Appropriations Committee’s monized foreign aid structure. A clear con- exercise. Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, Export sensus emerged from their recommendations: Financing, and Related Programs in the U.S. promote local capacity and stakeholder owner- House of Representatives, acknowledges the ship; favor long-term sustainability over short- resource and cultural challenges (especially term political goals; and encourage the con- congressional committee culture) faced by solidation and coordination of the disjointed those in charge of appropriating foreign assis- U.S. foreign assistance structure. tance (p. 238). While federal aid flounders, private foun- Security By Other Means successfully pro- dation donations are growing steadily and are vides a realistic assessment of the challenges to poised to overtake official governmental aid. strengthening U.S. leadership in development Moreover, businesses have steadily expanded assistance. The book, along with the Helping to the scope of their humanitarian work. Private Enhance the Livelihood of People Around the businesses and foundations can avoid much Globe Commission report, encourages a much- of the bureaucratic red tape that strangles 126

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 government aid. Nevertheless, an attempt by Desai, Raj M. (2007, May 29). Revitalizing America’s business interests, private foundations, and foreign aid regime. Washington, DC: The Brookings federal foreign assistance to integrate their Institution. Available online at http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0529macroeconomic approaches and build technical capacity could s_desai.aspx only be a positive step. Dugger, Celia W. (2007, August 16). “CARE turns The authors of Security By Other Means suc- down federal funds for food aid.” The New York cessfully parse the many challenges and oppor- Times. Available online at http://www.nytimes. tunities posed by U.S. foreign assistance reform. com/2007/08/16/world/africa/16food.html Along with a growing number of critical voices, Patrick, Stewart. (2006). U.S. foreign aid reform: Will it fix what is broken? (Center for Global this book provides a basis for further discussion Development Essay). Washington, DC: Center and action on a number of fronts, including for Global Development. Available online at integrating diverse donor funds, seriously delib- http://aideffectiveness.developmentgateway.org/ erating the comparative advantages of various uploads/media/aideffectiveness/CGD.F.Paper. organizations, and streamlining competing for- Sept06.pdf Sewell, John. (2007). The realpolitik of ending poverty: eign assistance mandates. An action plan for U.S. foreign policy. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center. Available online at References http://www.wilsoncenter.org/docs/staff/Sewell_real- politik.pdf Bazzi, Samuel, Sheila Herrling, & Stewart Patrick. Sewell, John, & Karin Bencala. (2008). A memo to (2007). Billions for war, pennies for the poor: Moving the next president: Promoting American interests the President’s FY2008 budget from hard power to through smarter, more strategic global policies. smart power. Washington, DC: Center for Global Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center. Development. Available online at http://www. Available online at http://wilsoncenter.org/news/ cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/13232 docs/Sewell_memo.pdf

The Shape of Things To Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World By Elizabeth Leahy, with Robert Engelman, Carolyn Gibb Vogel, Sarah Haddock, and Tod Preston Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2007. 96 pages. Available online from http://www.populationaction.org

Reviewed by JOHN F. MAY

In the past two decades, the study of the world’s John F. May is a senior population special- evolving demographic trends has led population ist in the Africa Region at the World Bank. scholars to reassess two classic paradigms. The He specializes in population, reproductive first paradigm held that the theory of demo- health, and HIV/AIDS policies and programs, graphic transition—a country’s transition from with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility—was a set of hypotheses regarding fer- was that population growth and demographic tility with limited predictive value, and far from trends have no impact on (or, at least, are “neu- a universal model encompassing mortality, fer- tral” to) economic development. tility, and migration. The second paradigm— Recent demographic trends appear to have held by many economists until quite recently— ended the period of intellectual doubt first 127

Environmental Change and Security program opened by the Princeton Project’s work on fertil- of age structures and population pyramids across ity decline in Europe (Coale & Watkins, 1986). the world, Elizabeth Leahy and her co-authors Mortality and fertility levels have declined rapid- guide the reader through the consequences of ly everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. These the demographic transition and changes in age declines have often been followed by transitional structures, as well as their implications for eco- migratory movements. The initial intuition that nomic growth. They also explore the impacts of the demographic transition (also known as the changing age structures on security, democratic demographic “revolution”) would reach virtually development, governance, vulnerability to civil all the corners of the world has been proven cor- conflict, and social well-being. These dimen- rect (Chesnais, 1992). Moreover, the rapid demo- sions—examined earlier by PAI in The Security graphic transition has brought about unexpected Demographic (Cincotta et al., 2003)—are argu- results, such as extremely low levels of fertility— ably more difficult to analyze. far below what is needed to replace the current The first of the report’s seven short chapters population—in some countries, as well as the explains the meaning of population structures. phenomenon of rapid aging, both of which have The next four chapters focus on four types of had far-reaching consequences for the economy. age structures and introduce a new classification New research, focused on East Asia, has also system: very young, youthful, transitional, and challenged the conventional wisdom regarding mature. Seven countries—namely, Germany, the independence of demographic trends and Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Korea, economic development. This work has demon- and Tunisia—provide case studies. The Shape strated that changes in age structure, dependency of Things To Come also addresses two atypical ratios, and labor force size have contributed to age structures, caused either by large migra- at least one-third of the region’s rapid economic tory movements or the HIV/AIDS epidemic, growth, dubbed the “Asian miracle” (Birsdall et as well as a speculative age structure illustrating al., 2001). A country’s age structure, popula- a country that moves beyond the demographic tion pyramids, and changes in rates of popula- transition in approximately 2025. Finally, the tion growth are now being recognized as more last chapter wraps up the authors’ findings and important determinants of economic develop- considers future demographic possibilities. ment and poverty reduction than population size The layout is truly stunning: The colors itself (and, to some extent, population density). of the graphs and population pyramids skill- This evidence is encapsulated in a new theory, fully highlight major changes; key messages are the “demographic dividend,” which emphasizes prominently displayed; and a very simple but the gains brought by growing numbers of work- quite powerful graph plots the percentage of the ers with fewer dependents to support (Lee & population aged 0-29 (vertical Y-axis) against Mason, 2006). Indeed, as neatly stated by Nancy the percentage of the population aged 60+ Birsdall et al. (2001), researchers have once again (horizontal X-axis). This graph, which recurs returned to the idea that “population matters.” throughout the study, enables the reader to A recent study by Population Action immediately position a country on the demo- International (PAI), The Shape of Things To graphic transition “scale.” Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More The Shape of Things To Come offers a few key Equitable World, provides a timely illustration of findings: these trends and their current interpretations. The report seeks to demonstrate that in today’s • Very young and youthful age structures are changing world, investment in well-designed most likely to undermine countries’ develop- population and reproductive health policies can ment and security; play an important role in advancing national • Countries with a transitional age structure and global development. Through their analysis (i.e., in the middle of the demographic tran- 128

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 sition) stand to benefit significantly from Furthermore, some of the report’s bolder demographic change; claims—namely, the link between population • Countries with a mature age structure (i.e., trends and political stability—rest on rather 55 percent of the population is above age 30) shaky grounds. Although the authors offer the have generally been more stable, democratic, necessary caveats, some of the analytical con- and highly developed; and clusions presented in the book appear to result • Societies and governments can influence age from connecting facts that may or may not be structures by enacting policies that support causally related. For example, while it is one access to family planning and reproductive thing to say that 80 percent of civil conflicts health services, girls’ education, and eco- (defined as causing at least 25 deaths) occurred nomic opportunities for women. in countries in which 60 percent or more of the population is under age 30, it is another thing The crucial role of policies has been too often altogether to prove statistically that the youth- overlooked in recent demographic studies; PAI fulness of the population is a cause of civil con- deserves credit for addressing it in a straightfor- flict. Such conclusions depend on the size of the ward manner. sample, which should be discussed in greater The report’s original analysis and the wealth detail. The previous PAI report on the security of information accompanying it could have demographic, to which this report refers, faced been enhanced in a number of ways. First, the similar difficulties. authors could have further analyzed the effects In conclusion, The Shape of Things To Come of the demographic transition on age structure could have examined several issues in more by using, for example, the concept of the transi- detail. Despite these omissions, Leahy and tional multiplier to compare different transitions. her co-authors offer a timely and useful tool The transitional multiplier is obtained by dividing to chart the changes in age structures that are the total population at the end of the transition brought about by the demographic transition by the total population at the beginning of the that continues to spread around the world. transition; the same concept can be extended to specific age groups (e.g., Chesnais, 1990; 1992). References They could also have further explored top-heavy population pyramids with older age structures. Birdsall, Nancy, Allen C. Kelley, & Steven W. Sinding Moreover, they could have highlighted the impor- (Eds). (2001). Population matters: Demographic tance of the time factor, since a country’s pace change, economic growth, and poverty in the develop- through the demographic transition varies, which ing world. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. Chesnais, Jean-Claude. (1990). “Demographic transi- can lead to different age structure outcomes (e.g., tion patterns and their impact on the age struc- a stalled fertility decline can have dramatic effects). ture.” Population and Development Review 16(2), Addressing these points would have helped The 327-336. Shape of Things To Come to more completely chart Chesnais, Jean-Claude. (1992). The demographic transi- demographic changes. tion. Stages, patterns, and economic implications: A In addition, it is not easy to sort countries into longitudinal study of sixty-seven countries covering the period 1720-1984. Oxford: Clarendon Press. only four age structure categories; allusions to a Cincotta, Richard P., Robert Engelman, & Daniele fifth category, a post-mature age structure, could Anastasion. (2003). The security demographic: have been explored further. The issue of negative Population and civil conflict after the Cold War. population momentum (as in the case of Russia) Washington, DC: Population Action International. also merits more consideration. Finally, the suc- Coale, Ansley J., & Susan C. Watkins (Eds). (1986). cinct discussion of migratory movements could The decline of fertility in Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. have been expanded to include the possibility Lee, Ronald, & Andrew Mason. (2006). “What is the that such movements might cause countries to demographic dividend?” Finance and Development regress across some age structure categories. 43(3), 16-17. 129

Environmental Change and Security program Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict, and Security in the 21st Century Edited by Lael Brainard and Derek Chollet Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2007. 175 pages.

Reviewed by STEWART PATRICK

Stewart Patrick is a senior fellow and city to weak institutions to malignant political director of the Program on International leadership to demographic trends. Like spiders’ Institutions and Global Governance at the webs, each country is unique; there is no single Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Prior route to prosperity (or penury), no single path- to joining CFR, he directed the Center for way to peace (or war). Global Development’s project on Weak States Drawn from an August 2006 conference and U.S. National Security. His most recent sponsored by the Aspen Institute, “The Tangled book is The Best Laid Plans: The Origins of Web: The Poverty-Insecurity Nexus,” this slim American Multilateralism and the Dawn of the volume is divided into two parts. The first chap- Cold War (Rowman & Littlefield, 2008). ters usefully distill recent findings (including some published elsewhere by the same authors) on specific links between poverty and conflict. Five years ago, the World Bank published The later chapters review, more unevenly, the Breaking the Conflict Trap, a groundbreaking practical dilemmas confronting external actors book identifying intrastate war as a critical bar- seeking to engage poor, conflict-prone states. rier to poverty eradication in a large cohort Throughout, the authors use refreshingly clear, of developing countries (Collier et al., 2003). jargon-free prose aimed at an educated policy Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict, and audience. Security in the 21st Century picks up where Paul Among the most interesting—if controver- Collier and his colleagues left off, this time sial—chapters is Susan Rice’s examination of focusing on the impact of poverty on violent the negative implications of developing-country conflict. The book’s broad thesis is that allevi- poverty for global (as opposed to human) secu- ating poverty in the 21st century is not only a rity. (Full disclosure: Rice and I are frequent moral but also a security imperative. collaborators.) She makes an impassioned case “Extreme poverty literally kills,” write edi- that poverty breeds insecurity by undermin- tors Lael Brainard and Derek Chollet (p. 3). ing the capacity of states to deliver four sets of This claim is true both directly—through critical goods: basic physical security, legitimate hunger, malnutrition, and disease—and indi- governance, economic growth, and social wel- rectly, by leaving poor countries vulnerable to fare. Beyond bringing misery to their inhab- domestic upheaval and war and by generating itants, such poverty-induced capacity gaps transnational threats that endanger regional and produce negative “spillovers” for regional and international security. At the same time, the global security, in the form of cross-border ter- poverty-insecurity nexus constitutes a “tangled rorism, crime, disease, and environmental deg- web,” with overlapping threads of interven- radation. She contends that in an age of global ing variables and strands of reverse causality. threats—from terrorists in Mali to Ebola in Poverty and violence reinforce one another, but the Democratic Republic of the Congo—the their specific relationship is mediated by con- United States cannot afford to be indifferent to 130 text-specific drivers ranging from resource scar- poverty that weakens state capacity.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 Rice’s chapter raises as many questions as it answers. The world is full of weak states, of course, and not all generate negative spillovers, much less those of the same type or magnitude, which suggests that intervening mechanisms and situational variables are involved. Are states that suffer from particular types of weakness more The poverty-insecurity nexus constitutes a susceptible to particular types of threats? And “tangled web,” with overlapping threads of does a state’s vulnerability depend on whether its weak performance is a function of the politi- intervening variables and strands of reverse cal will of its governing regime, a low level of causality. state capacity, or some combination of the two? Rice is more persuasive in showing the linkage between weak states and transnational spillovers than in demonstrating how poverty is linked to over time. Kahl’s distinctive contribution is to state weakness. Although she qualifies her argu- recognize that resource “scarcity” is not only a ment by noting that “though poverty underlies natural but also a social phenomenon, reflect- state weakness” the latter is “also a consequence ing political and economic competition, and of other capacity deficits,” her use of the blood- that the relationship between demographic and less term “capacity” gives too short shrift to the environmental pressures and conflict is medi- role of human agency (and particularly the role ated by (among other factors) the strength of of corrupt, misgoverning elites) in generating the state, the nature and quality of its govern- poor state performance (p. 34). ing institutions, and the identity, solidarity, and The role of intervening variables is front and power of societal groups. center in Colin Kahl’s chapter addressing the According to Berkeley economist Edward links between demography, environment, and Miguel, “the poverty-violence link is arguably civil strife in the developing world, based on the most robust finding in the growing research his similarly titled book (Kahl, 2006). In recent literature investigating the causes of civil wars” years, the environmental security literature has (p. 51). But is poverty breeding violence, or vice been dominated by two diametrically opposed versa? To answer this question, Miguel and two perspectives. The “neo-Malthusian” view attri- colleagues employ an intriguing natural experi- butes civil strife to deprivation brought about ment: They analyze the impact of drought—a by population growth, environmental deg- purely exogenous economic shock that increas- radation, and natural resource scarcity. The es poverty—on state propensity for conflict in alternative “resource abundance” thesis con- Africa. Their findings are startling: “The size of tends that an embarrassment of resource riches the estimated impact of lagged economic growth fuels violence, whether by creating a tempting on conflict is huge,” Miguel writes, with a one “honey pot” for factions to fight over or by percent decline in GDP “increasing the likeli- subsidizing institutional pathologies (the well- hood of civil conflict by more than two percent- known “resource curse”). Kahl considers this age points” (pp. 54-56). In contrast, they find dichotomy a false one, noting that scarcity and little correlation between violent conflict and abundance can occur simultaneously at differ- variables like political repression, democratic ent levels of analysis. For instance, abundance freedom, ethnic fragmentation, colonial his- in one resource can create scarcity in another; tory, or population density. In sum, “economic different sorts of resources present different factors trump all others in causing African civil risks for developing countries; and the patholo- conflicts” (p. 55). Miguel suggests that this gies of scarcity and abundance can occur and robust finding has clear policy implications: interact with one another in the same country Very little foreign aid, he observes, addresses 131

Environmental Change and Security program the immediate triggers of civil conflict. Donors people while armed groups keep discovering could change this by directing a significant new ways to make use of them” (p. 102). Somers proportion of external assistance toward help- calls for carefully targeted programs that har- ing countries cope with the sharp income fluc- ness the energy and vision of youth and provide tuations created by exogenous shocks, such as young men, in particular, with the opportunity poor weather or collapsing commodity prices. to gain both employment and dignity. By extending such insurance, the international Rotberg looks at the other end of the community could help remove support for rebel status hierarchy, highlighting the critical movements. role of leadership in overcoming poverty in The past decade and a half has seen a surge Africa. Throwing a bucket of cold water on in policy attention to the possible security those who still attribute poverty in develop- implications of demographic change—some ing countries primarily to a lack of foreign of it thoughtful (e.g., Cincotta et al., 2003; aid, he argues that the divergent trajectories Urdal & Brunborg, 2005), some of it sensa- of African countries can be explained over- tionalized (e.g., Kaplan, 1994). Henrik Urdal’s whelmingly by their quality of governance, chapter provides a judicious assessment of the and specifically the personal leadership quali- potential risks and rewards of “youth bulges” ties of heads of state or government. He in developing countries. He finds a robust cor- pointedly juxtaposes the authoritarian Robert relation between a country’s youth cohort and Mugabe, the former independence hero its propensity for low-intensity conflict. “For who has managed to drive once-prosperous each percentage point increase of youth in Zimbabwe into the ground, with visionary the adult population,” he writes, “the risk of leaders like South Africa’s Nelson Mandela, conflict increases by more than four percent” Botswana’s Festus Mogae, and Senegal’s (p. 96). And yet large youth cohorts have the Abdolaye Wade. Rotberg documents a rising potential to be a blessing rather than a curse, demand for good governance in Africa, but particularly if they precede significantly small- what of the supply? Here the answers are less er cohorts. As fertility rates continue to decline clear. Rotberg claims that sub-Saharan Africa (sometimes dramatically) in the coming years, appears to lack “a practical ethic of public ser- much of the developing world stands to gain vice,” but he offers few ideas on how outside a “demographic dividend,” in the form of actors might work with internal reformers to increased economic growth and lower vulner- help instill such an ethos. ability to violence. The book’s one shortcoming might be the The second portion of the book is devoted modesty of its aims and claims. The editors to several policy challenges confronting exter- could have been bolder in seeking to break new nal actors in violence-prone poor countries. conceptual ground, to offer more definitive These chapters address working with youth in conclusions on the basis of current research, and war-torn countries (Marc Somers); bolstering to address the policy implications of the book’s responsible political leadership where corrup- overall findings. Like many conference volumes, tion is the norm (Robert Rotberg); operating it lacks an overarching theoretical framework or as private actors in insecure environments (Jane conceptual model to lend coherence to its dis- Nelson); and promoting democracy as well as parate chapters and to explain how the various security and basic needs (Jennifer Windsor). drivers and intervening variables can and do fit Somers observes that young people—and par- together. The introduction, for instance, includes ticularly young males—are typically demonized no trend lines or maps of current levels of pov- as a national liability, rather than as a poten- erty or conflict, leaving the reader to wonder if tial asset in building a more peaceful future. the situation is as dire as described—and which Ironically, he notes, “it often seems that nations states, precisely, are entwined in the “nexus.” And 132 do not know what to do with their own young although the editors review some prominent

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 debates, they generally abstain from evaluating Collier, Paul, V.L. Elliott, Håvard Hegre, Anke purported causal linkages or proposing steps to Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, and Nicholas cut them. The absence of a conclusion reinforces Sambanis. (2003). Breaking the conflict trap: Civil war and development policy. Washington, DC: the depressing sense that the filaments of “the World Bank. tangled web” will remain tightly knotted. Kahl, Colin. (2006). States, scarcity, and civil strife in the developing world. Princeton, NJ: Princeton References University Press. Kaplan, Robert. (1994, February). “The coming anar- Cincotta, Richard P., Robert Engelman, & Daniele chy.” The Atlantic Monthly. Anastasion. (2003). The security demographic: Urdal, Henrik, & Helge Brunborg. (Eds.). (2005, Population and civil conflict after the Cold War. July). Journal of Peace Research: Special Issue on the Washington, DC: Population Action International. Demography of Conflict and Violence 42( 4).

Trade, Aid and Security: An Agenda for Peace and Development Edited by Oli Brown, Mark Halle, Sonia Pena Moreno, and Sebastian Winkler London & Sterling, VA: Earthscan, 2007. 204 pages.

Reviewed by JOHN W. SEWELL

Trade, Aid and Security: An Agenda for Peace John W. Sewell is a senior scholar at the and Development undertakes the challenging Woodrow Wilson International Center for task of assessing the interrelationships between Scholars, former president of the Overseas trade and aid, as well as the complex causes of Development Council, and author of numerous conflict within the poorest countries. Emerging articles and analyses of globalization, develop- from a four-year research collaboration between ment, and U.S. national interests, including the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and “A Memo to the Next President: Promoting the International Institute for Sustainable American Interests Through Smarter, More Development (IISD), this edited volume col- Strategic Global Policies,” co-authored by for- lects six papers by specialists in trade, aid, con- mer ECSP Program Assistant Karin Bencala. flict, and sustainability. The editors’ goal is “to see these objectives—trade, aid, and security— trade policy, building markets for conflict-free as interlocking components of the overriding goods, promoting conflict-sensitive business in objectives of peace and development.” conflicted areas, and managing resources (both Trade, Aid and Security is, in many ways, a natural and aid) are particularly strong. These pioneering volume. Starting from the premise analyses synthesize a great deal of information that both aid and trade policies have sometimes and research not normally considered by trade exacerbated tensions and violent conflict within or aid specialists. the poorest countries, it also argues that aid and My definition of an “interesting” book is one trade policies can be tools to help prevent exist- that not only provides new information but also ing tensions or conflicts from turning violent. stimulates my own thinking about the broader The chapters on designing conflict-sensitive ramifications of its analyses. The authors in this 133

Environmental Change and Security program volume raise the right issues and shed much light financial institutions, to convert inward-ori- on the choices that will have to be made. But like ented, state-dominated economies to more all good analyses, Trade, Aid and Security raises open market-driven approaches, while also some questions that have not yet been discussed strengthening fragile new democracies. Either seriously, especially by policymakers. of these reforms is difficult to carry out under First, the papers present a seeming para- the best of circumstances; reconciling them is dox: By its very nature, economic, political, even more difficult. and social development requires change— Globalization has made both economic and in laws, customs, practices, and even human political reform more difficult. Opening mar- behavior. But change is inherently conflictual kets creates winners and losers, thereby shifting and destabilizing. Some states in the process the distribution of economic power and wealth of development actually “fail”; others, unable within developing countries. Various groups— to deal with the politics of change, give rise to ethnic, religious, political, and regional—have authoritarian governments. been winners and losers in this process, which There is broad agreement that increasing the has led to tension, contested policies, and number of established market democracies ben- increased conflict. efits both rich and poor countries. Democracies Moreover, globalization has limited the tend to make better political and economic powers available to governments to manage choices than non-democratic governments, and conflicts brought about by economic change. democratic states tend not to start wars with one Before globalization, governments could man- another. Market economies also generate resourc- age the speed of change by closing markets es that can be used to invest in people, and mar- and limiting financial flows. These techniques ket policies eventually promote democratization. are no longer effective, as the globalization of There is one catch, however: These benefits financial markets has made capital flows more are realized only by established market democ- volatile, and new trade agreements have pro- racies. The history of Europe and the United hibited many of the measures used previously States in the 19th and 20th centuries should to protect industries and groups. As a result, it remind policymakers that achieving stable open is much harder for governments to redistribute markets and open societies was neither easy income, assets, and economic power to com- nor automatic. Indeed, the social welfare state pensate “losers” in the processes of change. was created specifically to deal with the social One thing seems clear: To manage the poli- costs of unfettered market forces. Policymakers tics of economic and political change, policy- ignore the links between political and economic makers and analysts must put a much higher reform in countries where neither is established premium on strengthening the institutions that at their peril. mediate conflicts within countries and on build- But if conflict is inherent in development ing “constituencies for change” among groups and democratization, then conflict-prevention within these countries (Rodrik, 1999). policies need to be linked to strategies for pro- Many of the authors in Trade, Aid and moting market reforms and creating strong Security emphasize the need to develop conflict- democratic institutions. Support for domes- sensitive policies, particularly in aid programs. tic institutions that mediate internal conflicts, Indeed, they make a number of useful recom- whether economic or political, is essential, as mendations for specific policies designed to are institutions that bridge ethnic or geographic diminish conflict. But they fail to consider that divisions within countries, such as democratic the development promotion business and the institutions and civil society groups. role of the outsider have changed. Governments in many countries are under Fifty years ago, official development assis- great pressure, particularly from international tance (ODA) volume and policy was dominated 134

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 by the United States; the World Bank still was situation. Outside agencies must consider how a bank; and the International Monetary Fund best to help those who want to change politics (IMF) was focused on the problems of the within their own countries. OECD countries. Politics also have a considerable impact Today, the development landscape is much on rich countries’ development policies. For more complex. The Bretton Woods institutions instance, U.S. and European agricultural poli- now dominate the development debate, but cies are designed to benefit domestic agricultur- provide only a small percentage of overall ODA. al constituencies, despite the fact that subsidies The situation is further complicated by the pro- and lack of market access disadvantage produc- liferation of other bilateral providers and multi- ers in poor countries. In addition, donors still lateral programs. Each has its own history and give a great deal of aid to middle- and upper- constituencies, as well as national and regional income developing countries to support politi- interests. International NGOs are now impor- cal or commercial interests that may be legiti- tant players in development, both as providers mate, but do not promote development. Yet, of assistance and as active lobbyists on the glob- until recently, those groups trying to reduce al level. And philanthropic foundations, notably conflict have not focused on the trade and aid the Gates Foundation, have become important policies of rich countries. providers, while multinational corporations are Finally, Trade, Aid and Security would have establishing their own aid programs. been strengthened by a chapter on the impact Too many ODA The current reality is that too many ODA of the international financial system on con- providers are providers are trying to do too many things, flict and sustainable development. As the Asian in too many countries. We need to seriously financial crises of the 1990s demonstrated, trying to do too rethink the ways and instruments though which poor people and poor countries suffer dispro- many things, ODA is provided (e.g., Sewell, 2008). portionately from financial instability. Barry Those seeking to prevent conflict should also Eichengreen (2004) estimates that financial in too many focus on the politics of change, both within the instability in the 1980s cost Latin American poorest countries and within the rich coun- countries at least two percentage points of eco- countries. tries. Several chapters in Trade, Aid and Security nomic growth. Other analyses show that over make the case that resources, whether derived the last quarter-century, financial instability has from aid flows or legitimate trade, often are not reduced the incomes of developing countries by equitably distributed or used to end poverty or roughly 25 percent. promote sustainable development. Instead, they Restructuring the international financial sys- are captured by special interests or steered to tem by making existing financial institutions political elites. Furthermore, globalization has more effective can help dampen the costly insta- led to increased income inequalities even within bilities inherent in a globalized financial system rapidly growing developing countries (as well as that has no effective international regulation. between rich and poor countries). There are, however, political costs to reforming Nigeria’s situation is illustrative of the com- the key multilateral institutions. The decision- plexity of the trade-aid-security nexus. Rich making structure of the IMF was originally set up in natural resources, it is rife with ethnic and so that both borrowers and lenders had a voice in religious conflicts and highly political disputes the fund’s policies. But no industrial country has over the distribution of oil and gas revenues. borrowed from it since the mid-1970s; the main Nigeria does not lack the resources to end pov- borrowers are now poorer developing countries, erty and sustain its deteriorating environment, which have much less voice in the institution’s but successive civilian and military regimes governing board. More adequate representation have squandered its riches, and recent elected in international financial institutions for devel- governments have not substantially changed the oping countries would increase the legitimacy of 135

Environmental Change and Security program financial policies now seen by the South as being References imposed by the North. Eichengreen, Barry. (2004, April). Financial instability. There already are many volumes on trade Paper prepared for a meeting of the Copenhagen and its impact on poverty and aid policies. Few, Consensus, Copenhagen, Denmark. however, transcend the compartmentalization Rodrik, Dani. (1999). The new global economy and of both academic disciplines and policymak- the developing countries: Making openness work. ers. Trade, Aid and Security does, and for this Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. reason alone, it should be read by students and Sewell, John. (2008, April). “Foreign aid” redux: Can official development assistance be made relevant for practitioners. The important issues it raises are the 21st century? Unpublished manuscript. Available a welcome contribution to the knowledge of online at http://www.wilsoncenter.org/docs/staff/ the links connecting aid, trade, and conflict. Sewell_ForeignAidRedux_April_2008.pdf

The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization By Thomas Homer-Dixon Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006. 448 pages.

Reviewed by RICHARD MATTHEW

Richard A. Matthew is an associate pro- His latest book, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, fessor of international and environmental Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, deserves politics in the Schools of Social Ecology and a wide readership and should be the focus of ani- Social Science at the University of California mated discussions in classrooms, journals, and at Irvine, and director of the Center for policy arenas around the world. Unconventional Security Affairs (http://www. In his first study, Environment, Scarcity, and cusa.uci.edu). Recent books and co-edited Violence, Homer-Dixon argued that societies were volumes include Reframing the Agenda: experiencing natural resource scarcities that, in The Impact of NGO and Middle Power turn, often triggered or amplified diffuse forms Cooperation in International Security Policy of violent conflict. In his second major work, The (Praeger, 2003) and Landmines and Human Ingenuity Gap, he built on his earlier research to Security: International Relations and War’s argue that contemporary societies often fail to Hidden Legacy (SUNY Press, 2004). generate or deliver ingenuity where it is needed to solve serious social and environmental problems. University of Toronto Professor Thomas Homer- With The Upside of Down, he has moved Dixon writes provocative and influential books on confidently into the realm of grand theory. The issues of global importance, roaming effortlessly book’s major arguments—which can be classi- across scholarly disciplines and distilling insights fied into three sets—are concise, accessible, and from complex theoretical literatures. His argu- supported by 100 pages of detailed notes that ments illuminate complicated global processes, suggest mastery of an enormous and diverse describe the problems they generate and their like- literature. He integrates ideas in novel ways to ly trajectories, and identify responses that individu- generate compelling explanations, but he is also als, businesses, and policymakers should consider. cautious, emphasizing areas of uncertainty and 136

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 13 • 2008–2009 pointing out possible alternative analyses. renewal, amply illustrated with discussions of The first set of arguments focuses on the the collapse of the Roman Empire, the genesis converging human-generated processes that of the 1906 San Francisco fire, and many other Homer-Dixon believes are creating the condi- examples. Homer-Dixon asks the reader to think tions for catastrophe. He identifies five of these of societies in terms of their energy requirements. “tectonic stresses”: Initially, easy access to cheap energy (such as oil fields) can enable rapid growth. But if, over time, • Energy stress, due to a general imperative for the society remains committed to growth, it growth that is now at odds with the declin- inevitably will have to draw energy from further ing availability of cheap and easily accessible afield and at a much higher cost. As the Energy oil—humankind’s major energy source; Return on Investment (EROI) deteriorates, • Economic stress, a complex problem that has the society will discover that it is overextended, much to do with income inequality (and has dependent, and vulnerable to breakdown. recently moved to the top of the agenda); Homer-Dixon then introduces ecologist • Demographic stress, as populations grow C.S. Holling’s (2002) “panarchy” theory, which rapidly in areas like the megacities of the describes the life cycle of an ecosystem in terms developing world, which are hard-pressed of growth, collapse, regeneration, and a new to provide their residents with the means to phase of growth. Complex systems from forests survive and flourish; to human societies do not develop to some opti- • Environmental stress (the focus of Homer- mal size and then maintain themselves, argues Dixon’s earlier work), which worsens as we Holling; instead, they grow too large and become continue to degrade forests, fisheries, and rigid and vulnerable to external shocks. When other natural resources; and the day of reckoning arrives, they disintegrate, • Climate stress, the result of greenhouse gas creating the opportunity for a renaissance. emissions that alter the composition of the Homer-Dixon applies this cycle to the pres- atmosphere in ways that have dramatic, ent day, arguing that human societies, which alarming, and often unpredictable impacts have internalized the particularly aggressive across the planet. imperative of growth known as capitalism, are doing whatever they can to maintain a high rate Not only are these stresses interconnected in of economic growth. Unfortunately, they are ways that augment their lethality, but their cur- doing this in the context of the multipliers and rent and potential impact on humankind is fur- stressors—including the looming end of cheap ther enhanced by technologies that deepen and oil—discussed earlier, a situation he regards as expand connectivity, and that give small groups grave and untenable. and individuals unprecedented power that can Finally, Homer-Dixon argues that the politi- be exercised toward good or bad ends. cal realm is ignoring the tensions between Anyone familiar with contemporary lit- a culture of economic growth and a world of erature on global change will recognize these growing stresses. When societies experience stresses, as they have all received considerable a catastrophic problem, whether it is 9/11 or attention in recent years. But Homer-Dixon has Hurricane Katrina, governments do not pro- an exceptional talent for pulling familiar ideas pose policies that tackle deeper causes of vul- together in a lucid, sensible, and authoritative nerability. Short time frames, special interests, manner, building a worldview that is compel- and cognitive commitments are powerful con- ling and easy to grasp. straints on political innovation, and so political The second elegant set of arguments places elites spend billions of tax dollars trying desper- these contemporary stressors and multipliers in ately to maintain the status quo. In short, we a more general theory of social breakdown and are in dire straits. 137

Environmental Change and Security program of the sand, and cultivate—as individuals and communities—the capacity to navigate a world that contains much uncertainty. We can do this by being open to new ideas, by innovating in every area of human activity, by experiment- 21st century societies are poised to ing with new practices and institutions, and by avoiding the appeals of extremists who promise break down, and the breakdowns may be easy solutions—(e.g., let the market solve it)— to very complicated problems. We need also shockingly fast, painful, and interconnected— to oppose the knee-jerk responses of govern- “synchronous failures.” ments—which are so profoundly compromised by special interests—to deny deep problems, and to over-invest in maintaining systems and processes that are at odds with the set of stresses The third set of arguments in The Upside reshaping the global environment. And we need of Down examines what we can and should do to interrogate the growth of capitalism and ask today. While Homer-Dixon has included some ourselves whether the benefits still warrant the caveats about predicting the future, the thrust costs of this value system. of his first two arguments is that 21st century The Upside of Down is not a perfect book; societies are poised to break down, and the it does not discuss the burgeoning networks of breakdowns may be shockingly fast, painful, social entrepreneurs who are tackling global chal- and interconnected—“synchronous failures.” lenges from the roots up by drawing people from We can take steps that might mitigate some of all sectors of society into vibrant transnational these breakdowns; we can position ourselves communities committed to creating social value. to weather them; and we can take advantage I think Homer-Dixon may be right: Leviathan of the opportunities to build new institutions is, in large measure, the beached artifact of mod- and values that emerge after breakdowns occur. ern politics. In its day, the modern state achieved But avoiding them altogether is not a scenario much, but even the world’s only superpower now Homer-Dixon explores. finds itself unable to revise a health care system Nonetheless, The Upside of Down ends on a that is wildly inefficient or reform a tax code positive note. The key words for the closing set than no one understands, let alone apply its vast of arguments, especially “catagenesis” and “pro- resources to a challenge like climate change. And spective mind,” suggest that we need to be ready yet, even in the United States, the very heart- to rebuild. We already have been given oppor- land of capitalism and big government, there is a tunities to rebuild—for example, after 9/11 and dynamic world growing outside the Beltway, and after Katrina—and we have largely failed. Now it is the site of new values, clever experiments, we need to take advantage of each opportunity endless innovations, and a refreshing commit- that presents itself because the breakdowns are ment to redefining the good life. Even though likely to increase in frequency and scale, and it The Upside of Down is not perfect, it is very good; is becoming very clear that it is futile to try to it will garner well-deserved awards and stimulate preserve the status quo. much-needed debate. The arguments at the end of the book are not as rich in details as those in the earlier sec- References tions, and I think many readers would welcome an expanded set of conclusions. However, the Holling, C.S., & Lance Gunderson (Eds.). (2002). broad contours are quite clear: We need to Panarchy: Understanding transformations in human understand what is going on, pull our heads out and natural systems. Washington, DC: Island Press. 138

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