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Global Climate Governance Global climate governance: The politics of terrestrial carbon mitigation in the Paris Agreement Kate Dooley, MSc orcid.org/0000-0001-5636-6691 Thesis submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2018 Faculty of Science School of Geography Australian-German Climate & Energy College The University of Melbourne Abstract Emissions from land have been only partially included to date within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations have committed to preventing dangerous global warming with an objective to ‘balance emissions from sources and removals from sinks’ in the second half of this century, raising the possibility of unprecedented reliance on land-based mitigation. The objective further requires that this balance must be achieved ‘on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication’. Modelled scenarios for achieving the ‘balance’ objective of the Paris Agreement rely on drawing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere via photosynthesis and storing it in land-based sinks or underground, potentially reducing the availability of productive agricultural land, and encroaching on natural land. However these issues are poorly recognized in the policy-uptake of modelled outputs. This thesis analyses the contested politics of including (and accounting for) land-based mitigation in a post-2020 climate agreement, and the consequences for future mitigation pathways over the course of this century. Science enables better understanding of climate change causes and impacts, with climate policy heavily reliant on scientific legitimization. This thesis takes a threefold approach to understanding the legitimization of policy through practices of science: first, by analyzing land-use accounting rules as a site of politics under the climate regime; second, by using a co-production lens to explain the legitimization of negative emissions as key mitigation options; third, by assessing the synergies between land-based carbon removal and sustainable development goals, using a risk evaluation framework. It finds that the legitimization of a technical or ‘expert-led’ approach to climate governance in the context of the Paris Agreement has so far led to an expectation for unprecedented reliance on the land sector to meet the ‘balance’ goal in the long-term mitigation objective, implying strong trade-offs with other societal goals. The thesis concludes that the Paris Agreement institutionalizes similar dynamics to the Kyoto Protocol, taking a technocratic approach to land-sector governance, where the perception of model-based knowledge as ‘objective science’ lends authority to outcomes that might otherwise be more critically debated and contested. Closer engagement between modellers and policy experts for mitigation scenario development would allow for more negotiated forms of knowledge production, that might better clarify and represent the multiple objectives and interests at stake in the utilization of limited land resources. These findings highlight the need to make explicit the values and assumptions embedded in the co- production of science and policy, and how accounting for societal values becomes a mutual responsibility for scientists and policy-makers. Declaration This is to certify that: (i) the thesis comprises only my original work towards the PhD, except where indicated in the preface, (ii) Due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other materials used, (iii) the thesis is fewer than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of tables, maps, bibliographies and appendices. Kate Dooley August 2018 Preface Kate Dooley was the primary researcher and author for all chapters in this thesis, including the planning and execution of the research project. Some of the work included in this thesis was carried out with other authors, in the form of published journal articles. Publication details are listed below. The inclusion of these publications into the thesis has been approved by the advisory committee. The primary supervisor, Peter Christoff, has signed the University of Melbourne Declaration for a thesis with publication. All co-authors have signed the University of Melbourne co-author declaration form attesting that Kate Dooley contributed more than 50% to each publication. Publications arising from this PhD thesis: Chapter 4 Title: Governing by expertise: The contested politics of (accounting for) land-based mitigation in a new climate agreement Authors: Dooley, K., & Gupta, A. Journal: International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics Year, volume, pages: 2017, 17(4), 483-500. Candidates contribution: 70% Chapter 5 Title: Co-producing climate policy: negative emissions, land-use and sustainable futures Authors: Dooley K, Christoff P, & Nicholas KA. Journal: Global Sustainability Year, volume, pages: 2018, 1(e3), 1–10. Candidates contribution: 70% Chapter 6 Authors: Dooley, K., & Kartha, S. Title: Land-based negative emissions: risks for climate mitigation and impacts on sustainable development Journal: International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics Year, volume, pages: 2018, 18(1), 79–98. Candidates contribution: 70% In addition, the following publications were produced during the course of this research, but were not included in the thesis: Dooley, K., Gupta, J., Patwardhan, P. (2018) INEA editorial: Achieving 1.5 C and climate justice. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 18:1–9. Dooley, K. (2018) Human rights and land-based carbon mitigation, in: Dyucks, S., Jodoin, S., Johl, A. (eds) Routledge Handbook of Human Rights and Climate Governance, Routledge. Dooley, K., & Parihar, G. (2017) Human rights and equity as governing values for the international climate regime, in: Cadman, T., Sampford, C., and Maguire, R. (eds) Governing the Climate Regime: Institutional Integrity and Integrity Systems, Routledge. I am also very grateful for the financial support provided for this PhD research project by a Strategic Australian Post-graduate Award. Acknowledgements First of all I would like to thank my supervisors Peter Christoff and Robyn Eckersley. As primary supervisor, Peter Christoff has provided the encouragement and support needed to keep going, asking insightful questions and prompting me to think differently about taken-for- granted views. Robyn Eckersley has offered many constructive suggestions and invaluable advice, especially in the final stages of the thesis. It has been an honour to work with two such passionately devoted scholars. Many thanks also to the rest of my advisory committee Richard Eckhard and Malte Meinshausen for their valuable feedback and input, and for challenging me from their different disciplinary perspectives. I also wish to sincerely thank my external collaborators, Aarti Gupta, Sivan Kartha, and Kimberly Nicholas. It has been a privilege to work with so many outstanding researchers over the course of this thesis, on such a challenging and important topic. Second, a huge thankyou to all of my colleagues at the Australian-German Climate & Energy College. The College has been the most supportive and inspiring place to complete a PhD, with a cohort of talented and focused people devoting their energies to research on all aspects of the climate crisis. The inter-disciplinary nature of the College is its greatest strength, with a generous sharing of knowledge, expertise and viewpoints. A big thankyou to my family – to my mum for her continuous support, and to Meaghan and Nathan, who have graciously hosted me on my many and frequent visits to Melbourne over the course of the past 4 years while completing this work. A special thanks to little Ike, who was born, reminding us all why the future is so important. Finally, thank you to Pete, without whose love and support over the final months of this work, I may never have completed. Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................. iii Declaration ...........................................................................................................................v Preface ............................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ ix Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... xi List of Tables .....................................................................................................................xv List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xvi Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. xvii Chapter 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................1 1.1 Climate change and the problem of land-based mitigation ...............................3 1.2 Rationale ............................................................................................................7 1.3 Research Questions ............................................................................................9 1.4 Significance
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