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The Cheonan’s Long Shadow: The Second US-ROK Strategic Dialogue Issues and Insights Vol. 10-No. 22 Honolulu, HI August 2010 Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, the Pacific Forum CSIS (www.pacforum.org) operates as the autonomous Asia-Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic, business, and oceans policy issues through analysis and dialogue undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate areas. Founded in 1975, it collaborates with a broad network of research institutes from around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating project findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and members of the public throughout the region. Table of Contents Page The Cheonan’s Long Shadow: The Second US-ROK Strategic Dialogue Key Findings …………………………………………………………… 1 Conference Report …………………………………………………….. 5 Conference Agenda and Participant List …………………………….. 21 iii iv The Second US-ROK Strategic Dialogue April 29-30, 2010, Maui Key Findings/Recommendations The Pacific Forum CSIS brought together a small, select group of South Korean and US security specialists for the second time to discuss threat perceptions and concerns about the changing strategic environment in East Asia and the nature of extended deterrence. The following are the key findings from this off-the-record dialogue: – Despite growing rhetoric about a “global outlook,” South Korean threat perceptions remain focused on Northeast Asia, and North Korea in particular. ROK security analysts believe the North Korean threat has grown in recent years; they intimate that the US does not appreciate the severity of this “asymmetric” threat and, in particular, concerns about “nuclear blackmail” or increased North Korean adventurism (a la Cheonan), given Pyongyang’s perception about its nuclear deterrent.
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