Lebanon's Quandary

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LEBANON’S QUANDARY POLITICS The devastating blast at Beirut Port on 4 August exposed institutional DIVISION OF PARLIAMENT PRESIDENT | MICHEL AOUN PRES weaknesses at the heart of Lebanon’s economic and political systems Lebanon’s post-war accord distributed power along Maronite sectarian lines, birthing a system resistant to change PRIME MINISTER | HASSAN DIAB (formerly) ECONOMY PM Sunni REAL GDP GROWTH AND INFLATION GOVERNMENT DEBT 64 64 SPEAKER | NABIH BERRI SPKR Shia 20 £Leb160tn MUSLIM & DRUZE CHRISTIAN SEATS 34 Maronite 15 Lebanon’s gross debt SEATS has more than tripled 27 Sunni 14 Orthodox 8 Roman Catholic 10 £Leb120tn in 20 years 27 Shia SECTARIAN SPLIT 8 Druze 5 Armenian Orthodox 5 2 Nusayri 1 Armenian Catholic Modern-day Lebanon reflects the 2 Other Christian Minorities £Leb80tn post-civil-war political landscape 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 -5 2018 ELECTION RESULTS £Leb40tn -10 The latest vote consolidated sectarian divisions and kept power in the hands of decades-old political leaders -15 0 GDP, constant prices Inflation, average consumer prices 2000 2004 2008 2012 20162020 Tripoli BANK DEPOSITS $bn equivalent 25 The headline deposit growth figure in Lebanon hides the fact that “organic” deposits excluding accumulated interest payments have been flat since 2017 20 Balabakk 128 15 SEATS Juniyah LEBANON Beirut 10 FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT & ALLIES Zahlah 29 Led by Gebran Bassil since 2015 5 FUTURE MOVEMENT 21 Led by Saad Hariri since 2005 0 Population: 6.8 million 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 AMAL MOVEMENT 16 Led by Nabih Berri since 1980 Sidon -5 LEBANESE FORCES PARTY SHIA 15 Led by Samir Geagea since 1986 -10 Interest Payments SUNNI HEZBOLLAH 30.6% 13 -15 Led by Hassan Nasrallah since 1992 Deposits Tyre PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST PARTY 30.5% 9 33.7% -20 Organic Deposits (excluding interest payments) Led by Walid Jumblatt since 1977 MARONITE OTHER CHRISTIANS -25 25 SMALLER PARTIES / INDEPENDENT 5.2% DRUZE PM Rafiq Hariri France grants Lebanon its Intra Bank, Lebanon's The Lebanese is assassinated Lebanon technically defaults on a Eurobond independence following largest financial Popular protests beign 1948 1975 Civil War ends 2000 2006 2019 The Lebanese Lira loses 80 per cent of its value international pressure institution collapses Syria withdraws following protests in Tunisia from Lebanon Port of Beirut explosion deals huge damage to north Beirut 1943 1966 1990 2005 2011 2020 The first Palestinian The Lebanese Civil Israel withdraws Israel and Hezbollah Popular protests prompt Prime refugees arrive after the War erupts from Lebanon clash in the July War Minister Saad Hariri to resign Arab-Israeli war and Nakba Sources: IMF; Finance 4 Lebanon; MEED.

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