Public Opinion of Lebanese Christians
December 2012 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not bedisclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Content
1. Research Objectives
2. Methodology
3. Key Findings
. Sample profile
. Christians’ Fears & Concerns
. Political Forces Assessment
. Christians’ Expectations
. Christians and Elections
. Media Consumption Habits 4. Conclusions
2 1
Research Objectives Research Objectives
The main objective of this study was to better understand the opinion of the Lebanese Christian voters regarding certain issues. More specifically:
. Identify their main concerns and fears. . Assess their perception towards political events, parties, and people . Understand their aspirations for the future . Understand the importance of local and country issues . Understand what motivates / de-motivates them to vote or not . Identify their voting patterns 2
Methodology Methodology
. 2000 interviews were conducted Face to Face. . The survey was done in 13 voting Cazas having a majority of Christians, and not in all the Cazas. . Cazas of execution are: Aley, Beirut one, Baabda, Batroun, Chouf, Jbeil, Jezzine, Kesrwan, Koura, Metn, Zahle & Zgharta. . The sample was representative of the Christian voters of each Caza as per the voting registration lists, including both residents and non residents of the Caza.
. The fieldwork was done between 16th October –3rd December by the specialized interviewers of IPSOS. . Each team of interviewers was directed by a full-time supervisor who was responsible for the interviewers on the field. 3
Key Findings Sample Profile Age, Gender, Religion, Marital Status
Age Religious/sectarian affiliation
Maronite 69% 18-20 5% Greek Orthodox 14% 21-34 27% Greek Catholic 9%
Armenian Orthodox 35-49 32% 5% Armenian Catholic 1% 50+ 36% Other Christian / Minorities 2%
Marital Status Gender Widowed Divorced 3% 1%
Single Female Male 34% 49% 51% Married 62% Political Activity In the household N = 2000 No one 84%
Myself 13%
Other family 12% members
Myself Other Family Member (s) N = 262 N = 234
Lebanese 46% Lebanese Forces 48% Forces
Tayyar (FPM) 18% Tayyar (FPM) 20%
Tashnag party 17% Kataeb 16%
Kataeb 12% Tashnag party 14%
Marada 3% Marada 3% Communist 2% PNSS 2% party National Liberal PNSS 1% 2% party Ramgavar 1% Communist party 2% party
Hunchak party 1% Ramgavar party 1%
M7a. Who in your family including yourself is active in a political party? M7b. In which political party are you/they active? Christians’ Fears & Concerns The Lebanese Identity
Significantly more among voters of Proud 74% Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, & Baabda more than the other regions Significantly more among voters of Beirut Belonging 9% One more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Chouf N = 2000 Pessimistic 6% more than the other regions
Neutral 5%
Optimistic 4%
Significantly more among voters of Free 3% Zgharta more than the other regions
Ashamed 3%
Lost 3%
Q1a. How do you feel towards holding the Lebanese identity? Feelings Toward Current Personal Situation
53%
Feeling significantly stronger among female voters, and in Bcharre and Koura N = 2000
26%
13%
6% 2%
I am happy, but I am unhappy and I am happy and I am unhappy, I don't know how worried about worried about the not worried about but not worried to feel / not sure the future future the future about the future
Q2. In general, how do you feel regarding your current personal situation? Current Main Concerns
Main Concerns
Security situation of the country/ Significantly more among women, and in weapons with individuals/ army 83% weakness Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn and Jezzine
Economic situation (expensiveness, 79% Significantly more in Bcharre and Beirut 1 unemployment) N = 2000 My personal safety and that of my family 47% First Mentioned My personal financial / work Main Concern situation 38% Security situation of the country/ weapons with 41% My health and that of my family 35% individuals/ army … Economic situation The events in Syria & the Arab (expensiveness, 22% countries 8% unemployment) My health and that of my The political situation in Lebanon family 15% (elections, leaders, government, 4% inter-Christians conflict My personal safety and 10% Fear for the future (migration of that of my family youth, children's future, third age) 3% My personal financial / work situation 5%
Q3. What are your main concerns these days? Lebanon’s Greatest Danger Today
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta War: civil/ Sunni-Chia/ ME/ with Israel 16% & Baabda than the other regions Significantly more among young women and The declining economy 16% voters of Chouf & Beirut 1 Significantly more among Hezbollah weapons 13% male voters of Bechare N = 2000 The lack of the state's control on the 11% security situation Significantly more among women
The increased sectarian conflicts 5%
Inter-Christian divisions 5%
Lebanon getting involved in the 4% regional/Syrian crisis
The illegitimate arms in the streets 4%
The corruption 4%
The increased presence of Salafists in 4% Lebanon
The displacement of the Christians 3%
Q5. In your opinion, what is Lebanon’s greatest danger today? Dangers on Your Future
Least dangerous 1 2 3 Most dangerous Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Chouf & Beirut 1 A declining economy 53% 1.89 Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Baabda & Beirut 1 Weak Lebanese state 49% 2.02 Significantly more in Metn & Baabda Weak, corrupt or inefficient 48% politicians 1.78 N = 2000
Lebanese Christian divisions 45% 2.03
Terrorist attacks in Lebanon 33% 2.00
Hezbollah's weapons 29% 2.35
Increasing influence of Salafis in 20% Lebanon 2.12
Salafis or Ikhwan taking over in 10% Syria 2.08
Bachar Al Assad staying in power 6% 2.17
A civil war in Syria 6% 1.94
Q6. Please choose from the list the 3 statements that you consider dangerous on your future (circle in the column 1) and rank them from 1 to 3, where “1 = most dangerous” and “3 = least dangerous”, in terms of danger on your future (write in column 2)? Christians in Lebanon
Agree with… Interested in
Land sales present a danger on Christians 94% 4% 2% 94% 6%
Christians have a bright future in Lebanon 52% 34% 13% 94% 6%
The Lebanese Christians lost their power in Lebanon 61% 27% 11% 90% 10%
Christians are in danger in Lebanon 66% 26% 8% 89% 11% N = 2000 Lebanon should not interfere in what is happening in 82% 13% 5% 80% 20% Syria
Lebanese Christians are better off today than in 2004 39% 51% 10% 79% 21%
Christians should get closer to all communities 75% 12% 13% 78% 22% Lebanese Christians should call for the change of the 62% 18% 19% 75% 25% Ta’ef agreement Salafists are more dangerous than Hezbollah on 58% 22% 19% 69% 31% Christians Lebanese Christians should protect as much as 56% 33% 11% 64% 36% possible Syrian Christians Hezbollah is more dangerous than Salafists on 34% 46% 20% 62% 38% Christians Lebanese Christians should work to have a state of 19% 76% 5% 61% 39% their own Hezbollah should be allowed to set its own telecom 15% 74% 61% 39% network 11% Christians and Druze should unite to protect each 47% 30% 23% 55% 45% other
Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites 39% 36% 25% 47% 53%
Christians should get closer to Shiites than to Sunnites 17% 57% 26% 42% 58%
Yes No I am not sure Yes No
Q8a. I am going to read to you some statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you “agree” or “do not agree” with each of these statements? Q8b. I am going to read to you again the same statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you are “interested” or “not interested” in each of these statements? Christians Existence in Lebanon
Christians Existence in Lebanon is Being Threatened? N = 2000 Significantly more in Significantly more in Zgharta, Baabda & Aley No Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn 34% Yes 66%
Reasons why NOT Reasons why YES N = 679 N = 1321
The immigration of Christians 38% Christianity emerged from this region The dramatic decrease in the 45% 32% and no one can remove us Christian population in Lebanon The continuous struggle among 20% Christian political leaders The increased power of Hezbollah in 20% Christians are the core founders of Lebanon 37% The increased power of Salafists in Lebanon 15% Lebanon The absence of a prominent leader 12% to defend the Christians They tried in 1975 and failed because The presence of illegitimate armed 14% 12% we resisted and we can do it again forces Salafists and Ikhwan taking over in 8% the neighboring countries The Muslim majority in the 8% neighboring countries The alliance between the Shiite and The increasing growth of the Muslim 7% 8% Christians will protect us population The Ta'ef agreement diminished the 7% role of Christians in Lebanon All other sects are armed except the 5% Christians The poor security situation 4%
Q9a. As a Lebanese Christian, do you feel that your existence in Lebanon is being threatened? Q9b. Why YES? Q9c. Why NOT? Feelings Towards …
99% 1% Independence 1%
1% Freedom 98% 1%
Democracy 96% 3% 1% LOVE N = 2000
Resistance 70% 24% 6% 1%
Federalism 24% 36% 19% 21%
Sectarianism 10% 42% 48% 1%
Integrism (Oussoulia) 2% 30% 65% 4%
Wilayat el Fakih 2% 35% 54% 9%
SCARE Muslim Brotherhood 2% 39% 57% 3%
Integralism (Salafia) 30% 67% 2%
I love it I don’t care It scares me Don’t know the meaning
Q13. On a scale where 1 = “love it”, 2 = “I don’t care”, and 3” It scares me”, can you please tell me how you feel regarding the following terms. Political Forces Assessment Government Performance Government Performance Significantly more in Bcharre, N = 2000 Jbeil, Beirut 1 & Zahle Significantly more in 41% 41% Zgharta & Koura
18%
Better (than previous) Identical Worse (than previous)
How Better? N = 357 How Identical? How Worse? N = 819 N = 824
Good performance of 44% different ministries Bad security situation 44% Still same situation/ Unsecured 74% status
Worked towards the Incompetent team 41% citizens concerns and 25% vital needs
Same economical situation 42% Did not work towards the citizens concerns and vital 40% Better security situation/ needs stronger army/ war 21% avoided Bad performance of 18% Driven to external decision different ministries 5% rather than to Lebanon Less corruption 12% Corruption 15%
Independent decision, no more american control, Corruption 4% 11% against international Bad impact on Christians 4% tribunal
Q4. How would you evaluate the performance of the actual government, compared to the previous one’s performance? Would you say that the actual government’s performance is 1. Much better, 2. A little bit better, 3. Identical, 4. A little bit worse, 5. Much worse than the previous government’s performance? Q4a. In what is it better? Q4b. In what is it identical? Q4c. In what is it worse? Perception of Christian Political Parties
Lebanese Forces Kataeb
Working for the best interest of 32% Inefficient 32% Christians Working for the best interest of Powerful 24% 26% Christians
Inefficient 24% Struggling 19%
Struggling 17% Powerful 14% N = 2000 Following foreign and/or Arab Following foreign and/or Arab 13% 11% countries' instructions countries' instructions Destroying/ threatening Christians Followers to the alliance they 12% 6% future existence in Lebanon belong to Followers to the alliance they 11% belong to
Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar Marada
Inefficient 30% Inefficient 28% Working for the best interest Destroying/ threatening Christians 16% 22% of Christians future existence in Lebanon Followers to the alliance they belong Powerful 16% 22% to Following foreign and/or Arab Working for the best interest of 13% 21% countries' instructions Christians Followers to the alliance they 10% Powerful 20% belong to
Following foreign and/or Arab Struggling 9% 14% countries' instructions Destroying/ threatening 8% Struggling 13% Christians future existence in …
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon? Perception of the Lebanese Forces By Caza
Place of Voting
Aley
Jbeil
Metn
Zahle
Koura Chouf
Jezzine
Zgharta
Baabda
Batroun
Bechare
Kesrwan Beirut one one Beirut N = 2000 130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94
Working for the best interest of 25% 77% 23% 31% 40% 35% 28% 37% 18% 25% 26% 29% 21% Christians
Powerful 21% 65% 26% 36% 11% 15% 17% 9% 10% 27% 32% 40% 21%
Inefficient 19% 6% 12% 20% 49% 34% 30% 25% 22% 16% 22% 16% 30%
Struggling 10% 14% 8% 10% 31% 23% 19% 17% 5% 19% 14% 23% 15%
Following foreign and/or Arab 24% 5% 6% 4% 27% 20% 16% 9% 1% 5% 14% 11% 12% countries' instructions
Destroying/ threatening the future existence of Christians in 26% 2% 12% 6% 18% 17% 17% 10% 3% 5% 7% 8% 11% Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they 18% 1% 6% 5% 17% 12% 17% 6% 3% 9% 10% 12% 10% belong to
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon? Perception of Kataeb By Caza
Place of Voting
Aley
Jbeil
Metn
Zahle
Koura Chouf
Jezzine
Zgharta
Baabda
Batroun
Bechare
Kesrwan Beirut one Beirut
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94 N = 2000
Inefficient 26% 28% 27% 24% 60% 43% 35% 28% 21% 34% 23% 26% 38%
Working for the best 23% 33% 16% 20% 32% 29% 28% 30% 18% 20% 24% 31% 23% interest of Christians
Struggling 35% 15% 14% 15% 28% 16% 17% 15% 6% 16% 13% 27% 20%
Powerful 7% 13% 10% 19% 4% 14% 14% 14% 12% 20% 21% 19% 16%
Following foreign and/or 17% 6% 3% 4% 31% 16% 13% 6% 1% 6% 14% 9% 9% Arab countries' instructions
Followers to the alliance 18% 1% 2% 2% 9% 6% 7% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% they belong to
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon? Perception of Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar By Caza
Place of Voting
one
Aley
Jbeil
Metn
Zahle
Koura Chouf
Jezzine
Zgharta
Baabda
Batroun
Bechare
Kesrwan Beirut Beirut 130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94 N = 2000 Inefficient 25% 20% 14% 23% 51% 26% 27% 19% 24% 26% 29% 40% 34%
Destroying/ threatening the future existence of Christians 9% 68% 17% 18% 28% 25% 20% 30% 1% 12% 13% 26% 14% in Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they 19% 57% 26% 22% 29% 20% 22% 10% 10% 11% 15% 27% 15% belong to
Working for the best interest 35% 1% 17% 14% 25% 31% 27% 17% 14% 20% 18% 17% 21% of Christians
Powerful 38% 5% 19% 21% 15% 19% 23% 16% 18% 17% 21% 17% 22%
Following foreign and/or Arab 14% 18% 6% 4% 32% 19% 16% 7% 1% 8% 15% 18% 13% countries' instructions
Struggling 9% 6% 15% 11% 25% 15% 12% 12% 5% 9% 12% 22% 12%
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon? Perception of Marada By Caza
Place of Voting
one
Aley
Jbeil
Metn
Zahle
Koura Chouf
Jezzine
Zgharta
Baabda
Batroun
Bechare
Kesrwan Beirut Beirut
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94 N = 2000
Inefficient 19% 45% 34% 37% 43% 30% 31% 24% 17% 29% 24% 31% 26%
Working for the best interest of 45% 11% 21% 12% 19% 18% 11% 12% 14% 16% 16% 16% 9% Christians
Powerful 36% 11% 15% 17% 21% 15% 14% 11% 6% 14% 19% 9% 22%
Following foreign and/or Arab 15% 15% 4% 2% 29% 16% 14% 4% 4% 7% 13% 17% 13% countries' instructions
Followers to the alliance they 20% 8% 5% 4% 10% 13% 14% 5% - 5% 8% 14% 7% belong to
Struggling 4% 4% 5% 5% 14% 8% 11% 10% 3% 6% 7% 16% 9%
Destroying/ threatening the future 4% 9% 2% 4% 9% 14% 12% 16% 4% 3% 4% 11% 2% existence of Christians in Lebanon
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon? Perception of Hezbollah
Hezbollah is an Iranian party that works 64% 19% 17% according to the Iranian agenda
33% Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Lebanon 56% 11%
Since the withdrawal of Israel in 2000, Hezbollah 52% 20% 28% is no more needed and should be disarmed N = 2000 Hezbollah is working towards changing Lebanon 50% 19% 31% into an Islamic state
Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Christians 48% 13% 39%
Hezbollah weapons are a current necessity but 39% 45% should be removed on the long term 16%
Hezbollah weapons are an important counter Agree: Sig. more in Koura 34% 28% 39% weight to Salafists Disagree: Sig. more in Zgharta Hezbollah weapons are an absolute necessity for 29% 13% 58% Lebanon’s security Hezbollah is a Lebanese party whose main 26% 54% concern is the Lebanese state 19% Hezbollah weapons issue should not be discussed 23% 20% 58% as it can lead to a civil war
Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree
Q14. I am going to read to you some statements concerning Hezbollah. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Strongly disagree” and 5= “Strongly agree”, please tell me how much you agree or disagree with each of these statements? Political Leader who Played a Positive Role in the History of Lebanon
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn & Baabda
Bachir Gemayel 38%
Significantly more in Baabda & Jezzine
Camil Chamoun 19% N = 2000
Fouad Chehab 6%
Sleiman Frangieh 4%
Bechara el Khoury 2%
Elias Sarkis 2%
Pierre Gemayel (Sr.) 2%
Q19. In the history of Lebanon, who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader (not necessarily late) who played a positive role in Lebanon more than others? Political Leader who is Playing a Positive Role in Lebanon and How
Sig. more among women How? Samir Geagea N=469 None 28% 55% Sig. more among men 18-24 Samir Geagea 23% Sig. more among age 50+ Michel Aoun 16% 20% 16% Patriarch Bechara Raii 8% 11% 11%
Michel sleimen 7% Preserves the Cares about the Maintained his Attempt to His speeches rights of interests of the stance unify call for Christians Lebanese Christians state-building Sleimen Frangieh 3% community
Sami Gemayel 3%
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah 2% How? Michel Aoun N=314 Amin Gemayel 2% 27% 27%
Najib Mikati 1% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6%
Walid Jumblat 1% Cares about Preserves the Attempt to Prevented Fought Made Does not the interests rights of unify major clashes political reconciliations want to go of the Christians Christians by joining in corruption and into war Boutros Harb 1% Lebanese alliance with agreements community Hezbollah
N=2000
Q19a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a positive role in Lebanon more than others? Q19b. How? Political Leader who is Playing a Negative Role in Lebanon and How
How? Michel Aoun 27% 28% N=540 Michel Aoun 21%
16% 14% 13% 11% Samir Geagea 12% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5%
His alliance Works for He is stirring His alliance Does not Because of his Instead of His main His work His speeches He is leading with personal gain up conflicts with Syria adopt a firm association strengthening concern and projects are us to Hezbollah among stance with Iran the Christians' is to be are useless provocative destruction All of them 8% Christians position, he appointed weakened it in office
Sayed Hassan 8% How? Samir Geagea Nasrallah N=239
19% 15% 15% 15% Saad El Hariri 7% 9% 9% 6% 6% 5%
He wants to He is stirring His speeches are Works for Instead of He does He is leading us Works with His work and cause a civil war up conflicts provocative personal gain strengthening whatever is to destruction Israel projects are among the Christians' requested by useless Ahmad El asir 4% Christians position, he external weakened it countries
N=2000
Q20a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a negative role in Lebanon more than others? Q20b. How? March 14 vs. March 8
March 14 34% 16% 49% Avg. 1.85 N = 2000
March 8 25% 15% 60% Avg. 1.65
Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied nor Satisfied Dissatisfied
Q21. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Totally Dissatisfied” and 5= “Totally Satisfied”, please tell me in general, how much you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of: March 8 alliance? March 14 alliance? Mistakes of March 14 and March 8 since 2005
March 14 March 8 Lack of coordination and conformity 24%
Failed in the government/ Could not 32% Corruption, stealing and lies 17% solve the problems/ Negative role …
Failed in the government/ Could not Dominant power of Hezbollah/ 16% 24% solve the problems/ Negative role … Relying on Hezbollah’s weapons N = 2000 Unable to propose concrete Destruction of the country/ Turning 15% 22% solutions to the problems in … their weapons inward/ war/ … Electing Nabih Berri as spokesman of 9% the parliament despite the fact … Ties with Iran & Syria 19% Concessions they did, caring for both 9% parties interests rather than theirs, … Lack of coordination and conformity 15%
Protests, fighting, sit-ins, rallies 8% Corruption and lies 14% No political clarity/ volatile 8% relationship with Syria/ multi leaders Don't know 14%
Ties with Saudi Arabia 7% None/ No mistakes 10%
They have no vision for the future 6% No vision for the future 4%
Supporting the Syrian rebellion 5% Failed at communicating its good 4% messages Loyalty to western countries 4% Attacking the other party, the Sunnite 4% leaders/ one-sided government
Q22a. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 8th alliance since 2005? Q22b. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 14th alliance since 2005? Christians’ Expectations Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the Next Few Months Main Topics First Mentioned Main Topics
Provide security 89%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life 82% Provide security 46%
Solve economic issues 77% N = 2000
Political issues 44% Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life 21%
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights 40%
Education 12% Solve economic issues 17%
Drug problems 11%
Political issues 9% The situation of the prisons 3%
National reconciliation 3% Fight corruption & preserve people's rights 4% Environmental issue 2%
Preserve/restore Christians' rights 1% National reconciliation 2%
Better performance of ministries 1%
None 7%
Q7a. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next few months? Main Topics for Christian Politicians to Tackle as a Priority Main Topics First Mentioned Main Topics Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life 81%
Provide security 78% Provide security 37%
Solve economic issues 69% N = 2000 Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life 22% Political issues 53%
Fight corruption & preserve people's Political issues 15% rights 41%
Education 17% Solve economic issues 11%
Drug problems 13% National reconciliation 6%
National reconciliation 9% Fight corruption & preserve people's rights 4% Preserve/restore Christians' rights 7%
The situation of the prisons 3% Preserve/restore Christians' rights 4%
Environmental issue 3%
None 8%
Q11. What are the main topics you would like Christian politicians to tackle as a priority? Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the Next 3 Years Main Topics First Mentioned Main Topics Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life 87%
Provide security 82% Provide security 39%
Solve economic issues 72% Satisfy the citizens basic needs N = 2000 28% Political issues 43% for life
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights 40% Solve economic issues 17%
Education 15% Political issues 8% Drug problems 12%
Fight corruption & preserve Environmental issue 4% people's rights 5%
The situation of the prisons 4% National reconciliation 1%
Preserve/restore Christians' rights 2%
Better performance of 1% National reconciliation 2% ministries
Better performance of ministries 1%
None 7%
Q7b. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next 3 years? Political System Best for the Lebanese Christians
The current system, but with a 35% Sig. more in Zgharta, Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn stronger state
Democratic system 10% Sig. more in Bcharre, Koura, Batroun & Baabda N = 2000
Federal state 9%
The current system (as it is) 4%
Secular regime 4%
Division of the country 2%
Q10. In your opinion, what political system is the best for the Lebanese Christians? Improving March 8 Performance
All of Tayyar / Hezbollah / Gebran Nabih Marada / them M. Aoun S. H. Nasrallah Bassil Berri S. Frangieh Bases 734 616 510 159 77 75
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions towards their demands/ Better economic situation/ Work 23% 29% 23% 97% 26% 34% on development
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians & 26% 32% 27% 8% 37% 29% Muslims, politicians from different sides
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war, destruction, protestations/ Not support extremists/ 27% 15% 45% 18% 29% 13% Strengthen the army
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries 19% 16% 26% 8% 25% 21% interests
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore 9% 15% 3% 6% 2% 16% their rights
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the 10% 8% 7% 7% 10% 8% truth/ Be transparent
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a national government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair 5% 6% 7% 3% 10% 5% electoral law
Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 6% 6% 3% 10% 3%
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change? Improving March 14 Performance
Lebanese Forces / Moustakbal / Kataeb / All of them S. Geagea S. El Hariri A.-S. Gemayel
Bases 750 574 412 161
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians & Muslims, 31% 42% 39% 41% politicians from different sides
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions towards their 15% 16% 21% 18% demands/ Better economic situation/ Work on development
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries interests 17% 12% 23% 13%
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war, destruction, 16% 9% 15% 7% protestations/ Not support extremists/ Strengthen the army
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the truth/ Be 12% 11% 11% 16% transparent
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore their rights 10% 15% 3% 17%
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a national 6% 6% 6% 9% government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair electoral law
Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 4% 3% 3%
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change? Overall Wish List for Lebanon
Peace and concordance 69%
Better economy 67% N = 2000
More security 45%
Better conditions of life 39%
Less corruption & more respect for laws 21%
Unity between its people 20%
New and competent politicians 19%
Q24. Overall, what do you wish for Lebanon? Christians and Elections Electoral Law Best for Lebanese Christians
Don't Know 24%
Each community votes for its Significantly more among voters of Kesrwan 24% representatives more than the other regions
One circumscription with proportional 16% Significantly more among voters of Zgharta representation more than the other regions N = 2000
One man/ one vote 7%
Majority rules but with small electoral Significantly more among voters of Metn 7% districts and Zahle more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Bechare Same as last elections /2009 (majority rules) 6% more than the other regions
Small constituencies 3%
Proportional representation 3%
The sixties' electoral law 3%
Q15. Which electoral law do you think is for the best benefit of the Christians? Influence to Vote for a Certain Candidate
Qualifications of the candidate 38%
Previous performance of the 30% candidate N = 2000
Gender Age
Political agenda 23%
20 34 49
- - -
50+
Male
18 21 35 Female Qualifications of the Nothing, I simply like the political 37% 41% 31% 40% 40% 37% candidate party the candidate belongs to, for 16% no specific reason Previous performance of 29% 32% 30% 31% 29% 31% the candidate
Nothing, I simply like the candidate Political agenda 24% 23% 25% 27% 23% 21% 7% for no specific reason Nothing, I simply like the political party the 19% 14% 24% 18% 16% 14% candidate belongs to, for no specific reason Family influence 6% Nothing, I simply like the candidate for no specific 8% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9% reason
Family influence 4% 7% 5% 7% 6% 4%
Q16. In general, what influences you to vote for a certain candidate? Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Went to the polls in 2009 elections Will go to the polls in 2013 elections N = 2000 N = 2000
Not sure / No undecided No 25% 11% 22% Yes 75% Yes 67%
Why didn’t you Vote Why will you Not Vote N = 498 N = 498
I was below 21/ not the eligible age 51% My vote will not change anything 31%
I will still be below 21/ not the 21% I don't care about elections 13% eligible age
There is no one who represents me 16% There is no one who represents me 13%
I don't care about elections 15% I was convinced that my vote would 11% not change anything I am disappointed with whom I voted 13% for before and I will not vote again
I was outside the country 6% I don't believe that with the presence 4% of armed parties, elections are free
Q17a. Did you go to the polls in the last legislative elections in 2009? Q17c. Why not? Q18a.Will you go to the polls in the next legislative elections in 2013? Q18c. Why not? Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Who did you vote for in 2009? Who will you vote for in2013? N=1502 N=1564
FPM/Tayyar 27% Lebanese Forces 25%
Lebanese Forces 24% I didn't decide yet 23%
Someone from M14 coalition 19% FPM/Tayyar 20% I don't want to reveal to whom 14% I voted Someone from M14 coalition 14% Kataeb 8%
Kataeb 7% Someone from M8 coalition 5%
Marada 4% Marada 4%
I don't want to reveal to whom Tashnag party candidates 3% 4% I will vote No one, I voted with a white 3% ballot Someone from M8 coalition 4%
Q17b. Who did you vote for? Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for? Voting Patterns in 2009 By Caza
Zgharta (N = 101) Bechare (N =84) Koura ( N =83)
Someone from M8 coalition 48% Someone from M14 coalition 89% Someone from M14 coalition 47% Someone from M14 coalition 43% Someone independent 11% Someone from M8 coalition 47% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 8% No one, I voted with a white ballot 3% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 11% No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Someone independent 1% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 1% Someone independent 3% Someone my religious authority 1% Someone from M8 coalition 1% No one, I voted with a white ballot 1% supports
Batroun (N = 95) Jbeil (N =104) Kesrwan( N =163)
Someone from M14 coalition 52% Someone from M14 coalition 54% Someone from M8 coalition 47%
Someone from M8 coalition 34% Someone from M8 coalition 34% Someone from M14 coalition 35%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 11% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
Someone independent 2% Someone independent 4% Someone independent 5%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2% No one, I voted with a white ballot 4% No one, I voted with a white ballot 4%
Q17b. Who did you vote for? Voting Patterns in 2009 By Caza
Metn (N = 271) Baabda (N =133) Aley ( N =49) Someone from M8 coalition 50% Someone from M8 coalition 46% Someone from M14 coalition 51% Someone from M14 coalition 41% Someone from M14 coalition 35%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14% Someone from M8 coalition 41% No one, I voted with a white ballot 2% No one, I voted with a white ballot 5% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 17% Someone with the president 1% Someone independent 3%
Chouf (N = 86) Beirut One (N =117) Zahle ( N =157)
Someone from M14 coalition 51% Someone from M14 coalition 55% Someone from M14 coalition 48%
Someone from M8 coalition 33% Someone from M8 coalition 25% Someone from M8 coalition 31%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 18% I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 19%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 5%
Someone independent 1% Someone independent 2% Someone independent 2%
Jezzine (N =58)
Someone from M8 coalition 54%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 19%
Someone from M14 coalition 16%
Someone independent 14%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Q17b. Who did you vote for? Voting Patterns in 2013 By Caza
Zgharta (N = 108) Bechare (N =95) Koura ( N =89) Someone from M8 coalition 50% Someone from M14 coalition 79% Someone from M14 coalition 34% Someone from M14 coalition 39% Someone from M8 coalition 34% I didn't decide yet 7% I didn't decide yet 17% I didn't decide yet 29% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 6% Someone independent 2% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2% Someone with the president 2% No one, I will vote with a white 1% Someone my religious authority ballot I don't want to reveal to whom I will 1% 2% supports vote Someone from M8 coalition 1% Someone independent 1% Walid Azar 1%
Batroun (N =96) Jbeil (N=102) Someone from M14 coalition 44% Someone from M14 coalition 51% I didn't decide yet 28% I didn't decide yet 21% Someone from M8 coalition 20% Someone from M8 coalition 21% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 7% Georges Corm 3%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3% Someone with the president 2%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2% Someone independent 1% Someone independent 1%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for? Voting Patterns in 2013 By Caza
Kesrwan (N=175) Metn (N=265) Someone from M8 coalition 40% Someone from M8 coalition 37% Someone from M14 coalition 31% I didn't decide yet 21% Someone from M14 coalition 33% Someone independent 6% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 5% I didn't decide yet 26% Ziad Baroud 2% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3% Nematallah Efram 1% National Liberal party 1% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3% Hekmat Efram 1% Elie Keserwani 1% Common electoral lists 1% Wissam Baroudi 1%
Baabda (N=130) Aley (N=57)
Someone from M14 coalition 38% I didn't decide yet 39% Someone from M14 coalition 25% Someone from M8 coalition 36% Someone from M8 coalition 23% I didn't decide yet 21% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 8%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4% Someone independent 3%
Someone independent 3% Anis Nasr 2% Ziad Baroud 2% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 1% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for? Voting Patterns in 2013 By Caza
Beirut one (N=121) Chouf (N=99) Someone from M14 coalition 48% Someone from M14 coalition 42% I didn't decide yet 26% I didn't decide yet 26% Someone from M8 coalition 22% Someone from M8 coalition 23% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 5% Someone independent 1% Ramgavar party 1% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3% Michel Chidiac 1% Someone independent 1% Hunchak party 1%
Zahle (N=159) Jezzine (N=68) Someone from M14 coalition 44% I didn't decide yet 37% Someone from M8 coalition 27%
I didn't decide yet 16% Someone from M8 coalition 35%
Someone fromM14 coalition 21% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 9%
Someone independent 5% No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4%
Someone independent 2% I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3% Someone with the president 1%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for? Media Consumption Habits TV Station Usually Watched
65% 64%
N = 2000
37%
31%
17%
8% 7% 7%
MTV LBCI Al Jadeed OTV Tele Lumiere Future Tele Liban Manar
Based on Top of Mind of the Christians interviewed in the specific Cazas of the study.
M1. Which local TV station(s) do you watch most often? Internet Usage
Have Internet Connection at Personally Use the Internet Where do you use the Internet From Home N = 2000 85% N =1062 N = 2000 52% No No Yes 16% 33% Yes 47% 53% 4% 3% 3% 67% At home From my In the office From an At school/ at From N = 1062 smart phone internet cafe the somewhere / Tablet university else Avg. / week: 21.47
Top 10 Political Websites N = 324
50.2 Internet Activities – Avg. / Month lebaneseforces.com 40% N =1049 39.65 36.02 tayyar.org 34%
22.4 22.11 16.11 annahar.net 21% 14.15 13.64 12.09 8.55 alnashra.com 14%
Instant Check your E-mail Post Read Check your Watch or Post Read blogs Contribute messaging/ Facebook comments articles Twitter share videos comments on forums video account about about account about mtv.com.lb 12% conference politics on political politics on Facebook news Twitter lbcgroup.tv 12%
kataeb.org 11%
M2. Do you have an internet connection at home? M3. Do you personally use the internet? If YES, where? M4. In general how often do you use the internet? M5. Specifically, how often do you use the internet for each of the following activities? M6. What websites do you visit most frequently for political news? Please name maximum 10 websites 4
Conclusions Christians Fears & Concerns
. Christians mainly identify themselves as Lebanese and Christians significantly more among the females. They don’t see themselves as Arabs. Voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan and Metn consider themselves “world citizens” more than other Cazas. And voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan and Baabda identify themselves as “Pheneocian descendents” more than other Cazas. . Despite how they identify themselves, the majority feel proud of being Lebanese. . The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security Situation and the Economic Situation. Specifically the security situation is more significant among females and the voters of Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn, and Jezzine. . To them the main dangers on their future is the “weak state” and the “corrupt and inefficient politicians”. These factors reflect negatively on the economic situation. . Besides the Lebanese Christians also consider the illegal weapons a great danger on their future. . Specifically, those who mentioned that Hezbollah weapons is a dangerous factor on their future, considered it as the 1st danger. Christians Fears & Concerns
. The Lebanese Christians are mainly interested in issues related to the situation and presence of the Christians for example: (their future, land selling, size of their power, leadership). . Also they are interested in living in peace with everyone around them. they refuse any kind of war and consider the illegal weapons with the different parties (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Salafists…) as a danger on their future. . They want good relationships with everyone but also have a strong leader that can defend the Christians. . To 39%, Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites. . One third of the Lebanese Christians are still optimistic about their presence in Lebanon and don’t consider themselves threatened because they believe that they emerged from this region and are the core founders of Lebanon. . However the other two thirds who are afraid is because they consider that the Islamic presence in Lebanon currently has an advantage over the Christians in terms of increased population, powerful roles, and unified leaders. They see that the Immigration of the Christians , the absence of a strong leader , and the continuous disputes between the political parties are threatening of situation of the Christians. Political Forces Assessment
. 40% of the Lebanese Christians believe that the government performance didn’t change from before in terms of the security and economic situations. . Also to 42% these two issues has worsened. . However, 18% see that the performance of this government was better in some ministries that worked for the interest of citizens. . The Lebanese Christians love Freedom, Independence, Democracy, and Resistance. . While they fear Sectarianism , Integrism, Integralism, Wilayat el Fakih, and Muslim Brotherhood. . To the majority Lebanese Forces is still the strongest political party and the one working for the benefits of the Christians. . On the other hand, to the majority Hezbollah works with an Iranian agenda and its weapons are dangerous to Lebanon and the Christians in specific. Moreover it is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state. . Despite the fact that Christians refuse any type of war and they want to live in peace with everyone, they disagree that Hezbollah weapons issue should not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war. Political Forces Assessment
. After 30 years of his assassination, Bachir Gemayel is still considered the political leader who played a positive role in the history of Lebanon significantly among the young Christians. . Camil Chamoun comes next however he is significantly named among the older Christians. . In general, Christians assess a political leader to be playing a positive role if he / she: o Works to preserve the role of the Christians o Unifies them (significant among females) o Cares about the interests of the Lebanese Community . For those who consider Samir Geagea to be the leader playing a positive role, they do so because they see that he works towards preserving the rights of the Christians. . The Majority of the Lebanese Christians are more satisfied with the performance of March 14 more than that of March 8. . In addition, the mistakes of March 14 after 2005 are related to the performance of the alliance (e.g. coordination, failing in the government, unable to propose concrete solutions), whereas the mistakes of March 8 are more crucial to the stability of the country like relying on the Hezbollah weapons, May 7th events, and the failing of the government. Christians’ Expectations
. The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security Situation and the Economic Situation. . These two concerns are also the main topics that they want the politicians in general and the Christian politicians in specific to tackle in as a priority, in the short run and the long run. . As a fact, these two issues are highly related to each other. If the security situation is not stable the economy cannot flourish. Any security issue can cause great set-backs in the economy. . The Lebanese Christians don’t want a different kind of political system from the current one but they want a stronger state. Thank you for your trust and confidence in IPSOS