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Perspectives on the Return of Syrian Refugees Leïla Vignal

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Perspectives on the Return of Syrian Refugees Leïla Vignal Syrians in displacement 69 FMR 57 February 2018 www.fmreview.org/syria2018 Perspectives on the return of Syrian refugees Leïla Vignal There are many reasons why discussions about the imminent return of large numbers of Syrian refugees are premature. Since 2015, the military dynamics of the estimate the number of Syrians outside Syrian conflict have shifted in favour of Syria at seven to eight million, if not more. the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Damascus The adding up of these numbers is has retaken control of many cities and important. If the number of Syrians outside areas that were previously held by armed Syria is added to the 6.3 million Syrians opposition groups, with the battle for currently internally displaced, it means that the eastern neighbourhoods of Aleppo – almost two thirds of the former 21 million concluded in December 2016 – a significant inhabitants of Syria have been forced to leave turning point in this regard. By late their homes. Previously populated areas 2017, the Islamic State group had been have been largely destroyed and emptied of expelled from the last towns and regions their inhabitants, while other areas, mostly under its control in eastern Syria. in the regions held by the al-Assad regime, These developments, as well as the are now crammed with displaced Syrians. implementation of ‘de-escalation zones’, The magnitude of this displacement and the agreed in May 2017 and guaranteed by transformation of the spatial and political Russia, Iran and Turkey, have given new features of Syria are the result of a specific impetus to discussions about the future type of warfare: tactics that have targeted the of the country, post-war reconstruction civilian population in opposition-held areas and the return of Syrian refugees to Syria. since 2012, including with systematic and With the conflict far from over and the large-scale destruction of the urban fabric, prospects for a genuine peace still remote, and besieging of cities or neighbourhoods.1 however, the terms of discussions on return need to be examined thoroughly. ‘Safe and quiet spaces’ in Syria? The number of refugees is generally The need for refugees to remain in exile reported by the media to be 5.2 million. is now being questioned, given the new However, this only accounts for Syrians military situation in Syria, the progressive registered with UNHCR, the UN Refugee closure of borders by the main neighbouring Agency, in the Middle East. It does not countries hosting refugees, the hardening include the non-registered Syrians in Syria’s of conditions in Jordan and Lebanon, and neighbouring countries, estimated to be the costs to the international community 610,000 people in Jordan (in addition to incurred by the deployment of the the 655,000 registered refugees), 500,000 in largest humanitarian response ever. Lebanon (one million registered) or 175,000 In Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader in Egypt (125,000 registered). For the Gulf of the Hezbollah party and a close ally of states, figures oscillate between half a Damascus, declared in February 2017 that million to a (probably excessive) two million. “military victories… have turned large To this must be added the one million areas into safe and quiet spaces”. In October Syrians who have applied for asylum in the 2017, the Lebanese president Michel Aoun European Union since 2011. Finally, several went further and stated that “the return of tens of thousands of Syrians have made their displaced to stable and low-tension areas way through resettlement programmes or must be carried out without attaching other means to countries such as the United it to reaching a political solution”. Such States (US), Canada, Brazil, Argentina and statements obviously reflect the political Thailand. In total, it is not unrealistic to proximity of those two leaders to Damascus 70 Syrians in displacement FMR 57 www.fmreview.org/syria2018 February 2018 but are also directed at the international Reconstruction strategy community whose provision of financial and The first discussions about post-war humanitarian support is deemed insufficient. reconstruction took place very early in the This is a recurring issue from one donor conflict, with international organisations conference to the other. Meanwhile, in and governments saying that the lessons Jordan, observers report conversations in from previous conflicts had to be learned which Jordanian officials have been privately – referring in particular to the lack of post- floating the idea of the establishment of war planning of the US-led invasion of Iraq ‘safe zones’ inside Syria, guaranteed by in 2003. For instance, the United Nations Damascus, to which refugees could return. (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia initiated a programme Return to what? called the National Agenda for the Stating that the conditions for repatriation Future of Syria that, since 2013, has been are ripe is a clear distortion of the reality gathering expertise, building scenarios in Syria; the conflict continues, and the and identifying needs. Impressive figures ‘quiet’ places of today may not be quite have been given of the potential economic so quiet tomorrow. Besides, the Syrian opportunities linked to reconstruction, refugees do not want to go back to ‘stable and the potential gains for international and low-tension areas’ (whatever this and regional business, as well as for would mean) but to their own homes and private economic actors, are significant. places of origin. Finally, in Syria, beyond There is interest in neighbouring the physical destruction, the depth of countries too; Lebanon, for example, is disruption is of historical magnitude, and aiming to become the base for Syria’s the population has been plunged into reconstruction, citing its business-friendly poverty, with 85% of Syrians now living legal environment and its logistics facilities, in poverty.2 Access to livelihoods, homes, in particular the port of Tripoli – in the infrastructure, basic services, education north of the country and close to the Syrian and health provision has disintegrated. border – whose capacity is being increased In this respect, the few thousand with this future role in mind. In Damascus Syrians who returned in 2017 are probably too discussions are taking place openly. not the vanguard of a larger movement. The Syrian government’s reconstruction Throughout the war, there have been committee, set up in 2012 but with a movements of refugees to check on property, limited mandate, met in September 2017 look after a family member, collect a to discuss for the first time the devising pension and so on. The returns of 2017 of a broad reconstruction strategy. were limited in number, either organised However, the question of the funding by Hezbollah (from the border city of of the reconstruction has not been Arsal) or undertaken on the initiative of addressed. The finances needed would be families exhausted by dire conditions. more than could be provided by Syrian More importantly, internal displacement banks or Syria’s allies. Hence, any genuine and outward movements have continued. reconstruction of Syria could only be Contrary to Michel Aoun’s declaration, based on a collective international effort return cannot precede the political settlement that would first require finding a political of the war. From the point of view of Syrian solution vetted by the UN but the Geneva- refugees, conditions for return are two- track peace talks – the UN-sponsored fold: first, the guarantee of safety, security process – are struggling to make headway and absence of retaliation for individuals because of the parallel Sochi track, the returning, including for young men escaping discussions sponsored by Russia and Iran. forced conscription in the army, and, Meanwhile, Damascus has repeatedly second, some prospect of a future in Syria, said that it would favour its allies in the including reconstruction of the country. allocation of reconstruction projects. Syrians in displacement 71 FMR 57 February 2018 www.fmreview.org/syria2018 Whose peace? international community and for access to the A genuine political solution would also reconstruction business. However, for such mean that the return of Syrian refugees a plan to be successful, it would require a could be addressed in a way that reflects strong political power in Damascus: a stable the international legal framework for the authority, able to plan for the future, and protection of refugees and the provision of legitimate enough to be in a position to reach safe and voluntary repatriation. Yet, for all the out to forge new partnerships with Syrians talks that are taking place outside Syria, this as well as with the international community. issue is not on the agenda of the government The reality of al-Assad’s power, however, is in Damascus, nor are refugees included far from this: without the support of its allies, in its reconstruction plans. According to it is weaker than ever. Besides, the foreseeable informed sources, the regime’s plans for establishment of an Iranian-Russian political reconstruction are to cater for a population order in Syria (at least for the time being) will of only 17 million people. The military not resolve the conflict; indeed, it could lead to strategy of driving out large sections of the the emergence of new lines of confrontation. population has been for years one of the With little immediate prospect of a devices used by a weakened regime to remain genuine political solution and a stable in power. It has resulted in the emergence peaceful Syria, ambitious reconstruction plans of a new social reality that is thought – at may need to be shelved until a future date and least by al-Assad’s government – to be the return of Syrian refugees remain a remote politically and militarily more manageable. prospect. Clearly, this new reality does not include Leïla Vignal [email protected] those Syrians who are outside the country.
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