Testimony Before the House Committee on Oversight And
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Hezbollah's Syrian Quagmire
Hezbollah’s Syrian Quagmire BY MATTHEW LEVITT ezbollah – Lebanon’s Party of God – is many things. It is one of the dominant political parties in Lebanon, as well as a social and religious movement catering first and fore- Hmost (though not exclusively) to Lebanon’s Shi’a community. Hezbollah is also Lebanon’s largest militia, the only one to maintain its weapons and rebrand its armed elements as an “Islamic resistance” in response to the terms of the Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war and called for all militias to disarm.1 While the various wings of the group are intended to complement one another, the reality is often messier. In part, that has to do with compartmen- talization of the group’s covert activities. But it is also a factor of the group’s multiple identities – Lebanese, pan-Shi’a, pro-Iranian – and the group’s multiple and sometimes competing goals tied to these different identities. Hezbollah insists that it is Lebanese first, but in fact, it is an organization that always acts out of its self-interests above its purported Lebanese interests. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Hezbollah also has an “expansive global network” that “is sending money and operatives to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.”2 Over the past few years, a series of events has exposed some of Hezbollah’s covert and militant enterprises in the region and around the world, challenging the group’s standing at home and abroad. Hezbollah operatives have been indicted for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in The Hague,3 arrested on charges of plotting attacks in Nigeria,4 and convicted on similar charges in Thailand and Cyprus.5 Hezbollah’s criminal enterprises, including drug running and money laundering from South America to Africa to the Middle East, have been targeted by law enforcement and regulatory agen- cies. -
THE FUTURE of US-IRAN RELATIONS by Jenny Gan
THE FUTURE OF US-IRAN RELATIONS By Jenny Gan INTRODUCTION Over the past fifty years, the United States and Iran have experienced a tumultuous relationship that has sometimes revealed itself as a close international partnership and other times a contentious rivalry. Since 1953, the United States has helped conduct President Trump a coup d’état in 1953 to overthrow Iran’s prime minister, navigated imposing sanctions the US Embassy hostage crisis, and dealt with the Iran-Contra on Iran following scandal (“US-Iran Relations”). Despite a rocky end to the 20th the dissolution of century, following sanctions in the early 2000s, the US and Iran the US-Iran Nuclear entered a state of peace following the rising global concerns over the Deal. development of an Iranian nuclear arsenal (“US-Iran Relations”). Saul Loeb/AFP via However, the United States’ relationship with Iran took a sharp Getty Images turn following rising tensions in the Gulf, including new economic sanctions, explosions targeting oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and US military drone surveillance over the Strait of Hormuz (“US-Iran Relations”). Tensions rose to a fever pitch after the assassination of Coup d’état – the General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone and resulted in Iran pulling forcible removal of an out of the nuclear agreement while also promising revenge against existing government the United States (Ward). from power through Best described as tumultuous, the relationship between Iran and violent means. the United States has major implications for global peace, as Iran has nuclear capabilities and is a key player in the Middle East, a region where the United States has vested economic and political interests. -
Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership Or an Enduring Alliance? an Interim Report
Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST ISSUE BRIEF Russia and Iran in Syria— a Random Partnership or an Enduring Alliance? An interim report JUNE 2019 AMBASSADOR MICHEL DUCLOS Russia and Iran are allies in Syria not out of mutual sympathy, but for pragmatic reasons. According to many reports, Iranian leaders—nota- bly including Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC)—were instrumental in convinc- ing Vladimir Putin to send his air force to Syria and save Bashar al-As- sad’s skin in September 2015.1 However, various episodes highlight the limits of what looks like a circumstantial alliance. On February 26, 2019, Assad was received in Tehran by Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, in a setting evidently designed to showcase the Syrian dictator’s per- sonal allegiance to the supreme leader and his debt of gratitude to the IRGC.2 On the very same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was once again in Moscow, where he met with President Putin.3 The asymmetric priorities in Tehran and Moscow could not seem clearer. A few months earlier, on May 9, 2018, Netanyahu attended the parade on Red Square, alongside Putin, on the anniversary of the end of World War Two ( the “Great Patriotic War” in Russian parlance).4 The follow- 1 Laila Bassam and Tom Perry, “‘Send Qassem Soleimani’: Here’s how Putin and Iran Plotted Out Their New Assault in Syria,” Reuters, October 6, 2015, https:// www.businessinsider.fr/us/r-how-iranian-general-plotted-out-syrian-assault-in- moscow-2015-10. -
Of Iraq's Kirkuk
INSTITUT KURDDE PARIS E Information and liaison bulletin N° 392 NOVEMBER 2017 The publication of this Bulletin enjoys a subsidy from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Ministry of Culture This bulletin is issued in French and English Price per issue : France: 6 € — Abroad : 7,5 € Annual subscribtion (12 issues) France : 60 € — Elsewhere : 75 € Monthly review Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Misen en page et maquette : Ṣerefettin ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tel. : 01-48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01-48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: bulletin@fikp.org Information and liaison bulletin Kurdish Institute of Paris Bulletin N° 392 November 2017 • ROJAVA: PREPARING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE • TURKEY: THE REPRESSION EXPANDS TO LIBER- AL CIRCLES; THE VIOLENCE IS INCREASING • IRAQI KURDISTAN: UNCONSTITUTIONAL DEMANDS FROM BAGHDAD, ARABISATION OF KIRKUK RESTARTED ROJAVA: PREPARING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE. broad the “World Day for beginning to return to Raqqa, liber- the 17th with a suicide attack on a Kobani” was celebrated ated on 17th October. Regarding checkpoint that caused at least 35 on 1st November largely Deir Ezzor, the SDF fighters from victims in the Northeast of Deir as a symbol of this Syrian the “Jezirah Storm” operation, Ezzor Province, between the hydro- A Kurdish town’s unremit- launched on 9th September, liberated carbon fields of Conoco and Jafra. It ting resistance to the attack 7 villages near the town and about was, nevertheless, not able to pre- launched by ISIS in 2014 with fifteen km from the Iraqi borders, vent the SDF from reaching the Iraqi Turkish connivance. -
Perspectives on the Return of Syrian Refugees Leïla Vignal
Syrians in displacement 69 FMR 57 February 2018 www.fmreview.org/syria2018 Perspectives on the return of Syrian refugees Leïla Vignal There are many reasons why discussions about the imminent return of large numbers of Syrian refugees are premature. Since 2015, the military dynamics of the estimate the number of Syrians outside Syrian conflict have shifted in favour of Syria at seven to eight million, if not more. the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Damascus The adding up of these numbers is has retaken control of many cities and important. If the number of Syrians outside areas that were previously held by armed Syria is added to the 6.3 million Syrians opposition groups, with the battle for currently internally displaced, it means that the eastern neighbourhoods of Aleppo – almost two thirds of the former 21 million concluded in December 2016 – a significant inhabitants of Syria have been forced to leave turning point in this regard. By late their homes. Previously populated areas 2017, the Islamic State group had been have been largely destroyed and emptied of expelled from the last towns and regions their inhabitants, while other areas, mostly under its control in eastern Syria. in the regions held by the al-Assad regime, These developments, as well as the are now crammed with displaced Syrians. implementation of ‘de-escalation zones’, The magnitude of this displacement and the agreed in May 2017 and guaranteed by transformation of the spatial and political Russia, Iran and Turkey, have given new features of Syria are the result of a specific impetus to discussions about the future type of warfare: tactics that have targeted the of the country, post-war reconstruction civilian population in opposition-held areas and the return of Syrian refugees to Syria. -
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Viewpoints No. 99 Mission Impossible? Triangulating U.S.- Turkish Relations with Syria’s Kurds Amberin Zaman Public Policy Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Center; Columnist, Diken.com.tr and Al-Monitor Pulse of the Middle East April 2016 The United States is trying to address Turkish concerns over its alliance with a Syrian Kurdish militia against the Islamic State. Striking a balance between a key NATO ally and a non-state actor is growing more and more difficult. Middle East Program ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ On April 7 Syrian opposition rebels backed by airpower from the U.S.-led Coalition against the Islamic State (ISIS) declared that they had wrested Al Rai, a strategic hub on the Turkish border from the jihadists. They hailed their victory as the harbinger of a new era of rebel cooperation with the United States against ISIS in the 98-kilometer strip of territory bordering Turkey that remains under the jihadists’ control. Their euphoria proved short-lived: On April 11 it emerged that ISIS had regained control of Al Rai and the rest of the areas the rebels had conquered in the past week. Details of what happened remain sketchy because poor weather conditions marred visibility. But it was still enough for Coalition officials to describe the reversal as a “total collapse.” The Al Rai fiasco is more than just a battleground defeat against the jihadists. It’s a further example of how Turkey’s conflicting goals with Washington are hampering the campaign against ISIS. For more than 18 months the Coalition has been striving to uproot ISIS from the 98- kilometer chunk of the Syrian-Turkish border that is generically referred to the “Manbij Pocket” or the Marea-Jarabulus line. -
Implementing Stability in Iraq and Syria 3
Hoover Institution Working Group on Military History A HOOVER INSTITUTION ESSAY ON THE DEFEAT OF ISIS Implementing Stability in Iraq and Syria MAX BOOT Military History The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) first captured American attention in January 2014 when its militants burst out of Syria to seize the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which US soldiers and marines had fought so hard to free in 2004. Just a few days later ISIS captured the Syrian city of Raqqa, which became its capital. At this point President Obama was still deriding it as the “JV team,” hardly comparable to the varsity squad, al-Qaeda. It became harder to dismiss ISIS when in June 2014 it conquered Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, and proclaimed an Islamic State under its “caliph,” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. With ISIS executing American hostages, threatening to massacre Yazidis trapped on Mount Sinjar, and even threatening to invade the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq, President Obama finally authorized air strikes against ISIS beginning in early August 2014. This was soon followed by the dispatch of American troops to Iraq and then to Syria to serve as advisers and support personnel to anti-ISIS forces. By the end of September 2016, there were more than five thousand US troops in Iraq and three hundred in Syria.1 At least those are the official figures; the Pentagon also sends an unknown number of personnel, numbering as many as a few thousand, to Iraq on temporary deployments that don’t count against the official troop number. The administration has also been cagey about what mission the troops are performing; although they are receiving combat pay and even firing artillery rounds at the enemy, there are said to be no “boots on the ground.” The administration is more eager to tout all of the bombs dropped on ISIS; the Defense Department informs us, with impressive exactitude, that “as of 4:59 p.m. -
KILLING QASEM SOLEIMANI International Lawyers Divided and Conquered
GRILI WORKING PAPER NO.2 Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law vol. 53 (forthcoming in 2021) KILLING QASEM SOLEIMANI International Lawyers Divided and Conquered October/2020 Luca Ferro Ghent Rolin-Jaequemyns International Law Institute (GRILI), Ghent University Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law, vol. 53 (forthcoming in 2021) KILLING QASEM SOLEIMANI International Lawyers Divided and Conquered by Luca Ferro1 Keywords Jus ad bellum, jus in bello, international human rights law, international legal theory and methodology 1 Introduction In an influential piece published by the American Journal of International Law in 1908, Oppenheim opined that the chief task for the science of international law was “the exposition of the existing recognized rules.”2 He further explained that “[w]hatever we think of the value of a recognized rule – whether we approve or condemn it, whether we want to retain, abolish, or replace it – we must first of all know whether it is really a recognized rule of law at all, and what are its commands.”3 Writing in that same journal 75 years later, Weil strictly distinguished between the prelegal and the legal, and noted that “on one side of the line, there is born a legal obligation that can be relied on before a court or arbitrator, the flouting of which constitutes an internationally unlawful act giving rise to international responsibility; on the other side, there is nothing of the kind.”4 Then, in 2001, the International Law Commission (ILC) released its (Draft) Articles on the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts (ARSIWA) with a truism at its core: “Every internationally wrongful act of a State entails the international responsibility of that State.”5 That wrongfulness flows from an act (or omission) that is attributable to the State and constitutes a breach of its international obligations. -
The Killing of Qasem Soleimani Is a Major Loss to Iran, but May Serve As an Opportunity to Reexamine Iran’S Modus Operandi in the Region
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו ל ( למ( רט למ ו מ" )מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ול רט ו ר The Killing of Qasem Soleimani is a Major Loss to Iran, But May Serve as an Opportunity to Reexamine Iran’s Modus Operandi in the Region Dr. Raz Zimmt February 18, 2020 Executive Summary The killing of the Commander of the Qods Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Qasem Soleimani, in early 2020, dealt a serious blow to Iran’s ability to promote its strategic goals in the Middle East. The determination, operational capacities, military and political skills and proximity to the Supreme Leader of Iran made Soleimani into a “puppet master” and a central actor overseeing Iran’s expansionism and subversion in the region. It is doubtful that his replacement, Esmail Qa’ani, will be able to fill his shoes. However, Soleimani’s death raises the question not only whether Iran can find a proper replacement for him, but whether such a replacement is needed at the current stage. Undoubtedly, over the past decade, Soleimani was “the right man at the right time,” against the backdrop of regional upheavals that swept the Middle East in 2011. Soleimani wisely exploited the weakness of the regional system and used his skills to expand Iranian influence and promote Iran’s goals in the region. -
It's Official: Aoun and Hezbollah Are Allies
It's official: Aoun and Hezbollah are allies Beirut - Last week Ya Libnan reported that general Aoun declared that Hezbollah is his closest ally. Yesterday he made it official. Aoun and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Secretary General met to ink their agreement. MP Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement met Monday afternoon, with the Hezbollah leader. After the meeting the two leaders met with the press in a joint appearance and issued a joint statement of understanding which covered the following issues: 1- Dialogue 2- Democracy by consensus 3- Election law 4- Reforms 5- Missing during war 6- Lebanese in Israel 7- Security 8- Lebanese Syrian relationship 9- Lebanese Palestinian relationship 10- Protection of Lebanese sovereignty and independence They named the agreement "paper of understanding". The agreement was read by Hezbollah politburo member Ghaleb Abu Zeinab and FPM member Gebran Bassil. Aoun and Nasrallah were on opposing ends. Aoun was a main proponent of anti-Syrian protests in the wake of former Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination last February. His organization supported the Cedar Revolution of March 14 while Nasrallah organized the pro-Syrian demonstration of March 8. But Aoun broke with other anti-Syrian groups and charted his own middle-of-the-road course with Syria and with its allies in Lebanon. Nasrallah, meanwhile, broke an old alliance with anti-Syrian politician Walid Jumblatt, and with other partners in the coalition. Aoun, a former army commander was driven into exile in 1991, is aiming for the presidency and needs all the support he can get. Nasrallah, whose guerrillas are under international pressure to disarm, also needs support. -
October 2014
www.rbs0.com/syria14.pdf 8 Nov 2014 Page 1 of 86 Syria & Iraq: October 2014 Copyright 2014 by Ronald B. Standler No copyright claimed for quotations. No copyright claimed for works of the U.S. Government. Table of Contents 1. Chemical Weapons in Syria Alleged Use of Chlorine Gas at Kafr Zeita on 11 April Alleged Use of Chlorine Gas in Iraq on 15 Sep 2. Syria United Nations Diverted from Syria death toll in Syria now over 193,000 (31 Oct) Rebels in Syria, including U.S. Military aid Recognition that Assad is Winning the Civil War New U.N. Negotiator for Syria U.N. Security Council Resolutions 2139 and 2165 (24 Sep, 23 Oct) Henning beheaded 3. Iraq Iraq death toll atrocities in Iraq ISIL bombings in Iraq ISIL executions in Iraq Islamic public relations problem No Criminal Prosecution of Cowardly Iraqi Army Officers Iraqi Parliament meets ministers approved (18 Oct) 4. Daily News about Syria & Iraq (including press briefings & press conferences, speeches) Turkey Parliament votes to fight ISIL (2 Oct); Turkey vs. Kurds more Daily News (3-7 Oct) siege of Kobani suggestions that airstrikes ineffective (begins 7 Oct) Anbar province to fall? (begins 9 Oct) more Daily News (9-22 Oct) 5. U.S. Airstrikes in Iraq & Syria, U.S. Military Policy 39 airstrikes near Kobani during 14-15 Oct airdrop in Kobani on 19 Oct www.rbs0.com/syria14.pdf 8 Nov 2014 Page 2 of 86 6. Conclusions Foreword I have posted an annotated list of my previous eleven essays on Syria. That webpage also includes links to historical documents on the Syrian civil war and a table of dates of removals of chemical weapons from Syria. -
Read Testimony
U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Testimony of Stephen J. Hadley January 14, 2020 Chairman Engel, Ranking Member McCaul, Members of the Committee. Thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. To provide context for today’s hearing, I would like, if I may, to describe briefly what appears to me to have been the underlying dynamic that led to the recent confrontation between the United States and Iran in Iraq. In the fall of last year, Iraqi citizens across their country demonstrated in massive numbers. They protested what they saw as the corruption, sectarianism, and ineffectiveness of their government. They protested the over-weaning influence that Iran exercises in Iraq, both directly and through Iranian-backed militias. At least two Iranian consulates in Iraq were attacked and burned. Demonstrators even in the Shia south called for Iran to leave Iraq, chanting “Out, out Iran!”. 2 Beginning last October, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia, began an escalating series of attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. forces. I believe Kataib Hezbollah would not have acted without the approval of Iranian authorities in general and Qasem Soleimani in particular. And I believe this military campaign was a cynical effort to change the conversation within Iraq and to shift attention from the issue of Iranian influence to the issue of the U.S. force presence -- and ultimately to get U.S. forces thrown out of Iraq. The campaign escalated until a U.S. contractor was killed, at least 3 U.S. service personnel were wounded, and the U.S.