THE FUTURE OF US-IRAN RELATIONS By Jenny Gan INTRODUCTION Over the past fifty years, the United States and Iran have experienced a tumultuous relationship that has sometimes revealed itself as a close international partnership and other times a contentious rivalry. Since 1953, the United States has helped conduct President Trump a coup d’état in 1953 to overthrow Iran’s prime minister, navigated imposing sanctions the US Embassy hostage crisis, and dealt with the Iran-Contra on Iran following scandal (“US-Iran Relations”). Despite a rocky end to the 20th the dissolution of century, following sanctions in the early 2000s, the US and Iran the US-Iran Nuclear entered a state of peace following the rising global concerns over the Deal. development of an Iranian nuclear arsenal (“US-Iran Relations”). Saul Loeb/AFP via However, the United States’ relationship with Iran took a sharp Getty Images turn following rising tensions in the Gulf, including new economic sanctions, explosions targeting oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and US military drone surveillance over the Strait of Hormuz (“US-Iran Relations”). Tensions rose to a fever pitch after the assassination of Coup d’état – the General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone and resulted in Iran pulling forcible removal of an out of the nuclear agreement while also promising revenge against existing government the United States (Ward). from power through Best described as tumultuous, the relationship between Iran and violent means. the United States has major implications for global peace, as Iran has nuclear capabilities and is a key player in the Middle East, a region where the United States has vested economic and political interests. What is the future of US-Iran relations? Will the relationship be able to recover? HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS EXPLANATION OF THE ISSUE Historical Development The US and Iran have a long, roughly 70-year long history filled with international scandal, open war, and covert operations. In 1953, the US and British intelligence agencies implemented Operation Ajax to overthrow democratically-elected leftist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who strongly opposed foreign influence; the US then went on to support a brutalist dictatorship led by Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi (Ward). Anti-American sentiments began to rise in Iran, as Americans were seen as propping up a government that committed human rights violations against its people (McTighe). However, in 1979, the Iranian people revolted and installed a staunchly anti-American theocracy led by Ruhollah Khomeini, who described America as the “Great Satan.” In addition, the 1979 US-Iran Hostage Crisis lasted for over a year, included a failed helicopter rescue mission, and involved 52 American hostages, further cementing the perception of Iran as an American enemy (Ward). Because the young nation focused on expanding their influence in the Middle East, they attempted to incite revolution in American- allied countries like Saudi Arabia and Lebanon (National Foreign Assessment Center). Identifying Iran as a force directly threatening American interests, the US lent frequent indirect aid to countries like Iraq following their invasion of Iran, which led to the Iran-Contra Scandal, and engaging in direct military combat in the Tanker War, which resulted in the subsequent shooting down of an Iranian Airbus A300, killing all 290 Iranians on board (“US-Iran Relations”). Then, tempers began to cool, only to be re-ignited by 9/11 as President Bush began invasions into Iraq (Ward). Fearing they would be next, Iran began expanding their influence and supporting Iraqi militants; following the de-escalation of American presence in Iraq, Iran began to capitalize and exert their influence over the region, putting Americans on edge (Ward). Scope of the Problem The scope of US-Iran relations is both broad and deeply complex. The US-Iran In order to shed light into the future of US-Iran relationships, a number of considerations must be made, including politics within Hostage crisis has the country, economic forces influencing decision-making, and major implications international concerns about nuclear weapons. on foreign policy in Political Unrest and Instability in Iran Iran, even today. Iran has been shaken by political unrest and instability in recent years. Following a highly contentious election in 2009, people took © HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS 2021 – REDISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED 2 HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS to the streets in protest, claiming that hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had rigged the election against the more moderate Mir Hussein Moussavi (Worth and Fathi). Thousands – mostly women, young people, intellectuals, and moderates – took to the streets; the government moved to shut down streets, pursue protestors, and shut down text-messaging and social media sites – 72 people died over a 10-month protest period (Worth and Fathi). Vote-rigging is a common complaint raised during elections and points to the lack of faith Iranian citizens have in the democratic process. More recently, in November 2019, Iranians once again rose up; triggered by a nearly 50% fuel price hike, angry protestors took to the streets to call for an end to the current leadership, which lead to at least 180 protestors killed by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, with 2,000 wounded and 7,000 detained (Fassihi and Gladstone). The government instituted a two-week Internet blackout and used force to suppress the protestors, most of whom were young, unemployed men and working class families (Fassihi and Gladstone). Following a violent period of protests not seen since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, this unrest has marked a growing divide between the increasingly poor, restless, and jobless population and Iranian leadership (Fassihi and Gladstone). Shah Mohammed The protests at the end of 2019 only crippled moderate President Reza Pahlavi, Hassan Rouhani and polarize the country—the February 2020 President John F. elections were marked by the lowest turnout since 1979 and led to a Kennedy, and conservative win for Parliament (Tabaar). The low voter turnout Defense Secretary might be partially due to more than 7,000 moderate and reformist Robert McNamara candidates being prohibited from running in the election for in Washington DC. “insufficient ideological loyalty” (Tabaar). This only points to the Universal History disillusionment and frustration felt by Iranians when it comes to an Archive/Getty Images already limited voting mechanism. Global Sanctions Global sanctions have played a major role in the unrest within the country, as multiple American administrations have attempted to use sanctions to pressure Iran into acquiescing to the American agenda. Though critics have debated the effectiveness of the sanctions, the measures have undoubtedly shrunk the Iranian economy and prevented the Iranian government from achieving many of their policy goals, including exerting military influence in the Middle East and trade abroad (Katzman). Largely in order to pressure Iran into a nuclear deal following the stalling of negotiations after 2009, a US law allowed President Obama to impose new sanctions on Iran’s banks, including central banks of foreign governments who imported Iranian oil (Katzman). As a result of this strategic move by President Obama, Iran saw their crude oil exports fall by over half and, as a result, accepted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that lifted most of the US, © HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS 2021 – REDISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED 3 HARVARD MODEL CONGRESS United Nations, and European Union sanctions against Iran (Katzman). However, soon after taking office, President Donald Trump Trump cited the announced his intention to no longer uphold the JCPOA, and he imposed sanctions on Iran, with the stated goal of applying Congressional maximum pressure on Iran (Ekmanis). As a result, Iran’s economy 2002 military force fell into a deep recession, leading Iran to start their counter-pressure authorization as campaign by instigating conflict in the Persian Gulf and Iraq and legal basis for his ramping up their nuclear program again (Katzman). attack. Nuclear Arsenal & Nuclear Deal Iran’s nuclear program originated with American support in the late 1950s as a part of the Atoms for Peace program, where the US gave Iran human resources, uranium, and reactors (Ward). Providing the basis for decades of nuclear research in Iran, the Atoms for Peace program has led to the development of covert nuclear research facilities that have alarmed the international community because of their potential to build nuclear weapons (Ward). Though the Bush administration imposed a number of economic sanctions on Iraq, Obama’s added diplomatic approach eventually led to the signing of the JCPOA and Iran’s agreement to reduce their stockpile of uranium, nuclear centrifuge production, use of their Arak facility, and oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (Ward). A controversial move, the JCPOA allowed for the lessening of the restrictions over time and was seen by some critics as simply letting Iran off the hook (Vaez). However, the IAEA repeatedly confirmed through inspections that Iran was complying with the guidelines imposed in the JCPOA, and the US lifted their sanctions (Beauchamp). As a result, Iran’s economy began to bounce back—only for President Trump to be elected. Rising Tensions with the US President Trump imposed his maximum pressure campaign on Iran following his election and withdrew from the JCPOA; as detailed