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Reducing Air Force Fighter Pilot Shortages

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Reducing Air Force Fighter Pilot Shortages C O R P O R A T I O N Reducing Air Force Fighter Pilot Shortages Albert A. Robbert, Anthony D. Rosello, Clarence R. Anderegg, John A. Ausink, James H. Bigelow, William W. Taylor, James Pita For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1113 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9173-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The Air Force has faced a persistent challenge in that active-component fighter pilot requirements (particularly nonflying staff requirements) exceed its capacity to train and provide initial operational experience to a sufficient number of officers to fill these requirements. The objective of this report is to examine alternatives available to help close the resulting gaps. Since some solutions would rely on reserve-component resources, we also examined prevailing shortages of fighter pilots in the reserve components. This research was sponsored by four elements of the U.S. Air Force: the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (AF/A3); the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services (AF/A1); the Commander, Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC/CC); and the Director, Air National Guard (NGB/CF). The research described in this report was conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2014 study “Rated Requirements Assessment.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on October 16, 2014. The draft report, issued on October 31, 2014, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures and Tables ........................................................................................................................ vii Summary ........................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xiii Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Addressing Fighter Pilot Shortages .......................................................................................................... 3 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................... 4 2. Aircrew Management Dynamics ................................................................................................ 7 Fundamental Elements ............................................................................................................................. 7 Training Production .............................................................................................................................. 8 Absorption ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Sustainment .......................................................................................................................................... 9 Buffers ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Modeling Absorption Capacity .............................................................................................................. 10 Addressing the Imbalances ..................................................................................................................... 11 Increasing Supply ............................................................................................................................... 12 Reducing Demand .............................................................................................................................. 12 3. Increasing Supply ...................................................................................................................... 15 Training Production ................................................................................................................................ 15 Absorption .............................................................................................................................................. 16 Increasing Absorbing Positions .......................................................................................................... 16 Increasing Absorption Capacity in Existing Force Structure ............................................................. 16 Retention ................................................................................................................................................. 18 Using RC Resources to Meet AC Requirements .................................................................................... 19 4. Reducing Demand ..................................................................................................................... 21 Past Reductions ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Further Reductions ................................................................................................................................. 22 Converting Fighter Pilot Requirements to Other Workforce Types .................................................. 22 Transferring Requirements from the AC to the RC ........................................................................... 23 Converting Nonabsorbing Positions to Absorbing ............................................................................. 23 Eliminating Requirements .................................................................................................................. 24 5. Paths Toward Balance ............................................................................................................... 25 A Steady-State Approach ....................................................................................................................... 25 Identifying a Long-Range Requirement ................................................................................................. 26 Increasing Supply ................................................................................................................................... 26 v Increased Flying Hours and Simulator Usage .................................................................................... 26 Additional Active Associate Units ..................................................................................................... 27 Increased First-Assignment Instructor Pilots ..................................................................................... 27 Increased Retention ............................................................................................................................ 28 Using Reservists to Meet AC Requirements ...................................................................................... 28 Net Effect of Potential Supply-Side Alternatives ............................................................................... 28 Reducing Demand .................................................................................................................................
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