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Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management

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Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management C O R P O R A T I O N Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management Tara L. Terry, Jeremy M. Eckhause, Michael McGee, James H. Bigelow, Paul Emslie For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2796 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0169-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The U.S. Air Force must carefully manage the flow of its rated officers into and out of the force. Traditionally, the Air Force has largely focused personnel management efforts on rated officers in the Regular Air Force, but many of the rated officer career fields in all three components are experiencing shortages in personnel, increases in demand and operational tempo, and a decline in retention. The reduction in the number of aircraft in the Air Force has further exacerbated an already complex personnel management issue, as there are fewer aircraft for training, which, in effect, restricts the number of rated officers the Air Force can train and the amount of experience gained by these officers during their careers. Thus, the Air Force needs to manage the rated officer force from a total life cycle perspective while accounting for the interactions across the Total Force—Regular Air Force, Guard, and Reserve. However, it has lacked the tools to do that in an integrated and effective manner. Moreover, other factors complicate management of the rated force. These factors include (1) the Total Force manned-aircraft pilot shortage, mostly felt in the fighter pilot career field; (2) increased hiring of military pilots by commercial airlines at rates never seen before, which is likely to continue for the next five to ten years; (3) a shortage of maintenance and career enlisted aviators; and (4) rapidly increasing demand for pilots in the emerging remotely piloted aircraft pilot career field. This report documents our efforts to develop a long-term career field planning model, the Total Force Blue Line model, which can be used to manage rated officers across the Total Force amid the current turbulence. More specifically, we built a linear programming model that specifies the number and types of manned-aircraft pilots, combat systems officers, air battle managers, and remotely piloted aircraft pilots that should be produced annually from the undergraduate training pipeline to fill requirements across the Total Force. Using the model, we then explored the implications of several production and retention scenarios on long-term career field health given a set of rated officer requirements. The report explains the model’s main features, underlying content, and data inputs; it also describes key technical aspects of the model. This report is intended to provide our sponsor and rated career field managers with information about the capabilities of the model and how it can be used in policy analysis. It would also interest those who are involved in the technical modeling aspect of career field planning. The research reported here was commissioned by the United States Air Force and conducted within the Manpower, Personnel and Training Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of three sequential fiscal year projects (FYs 2014–2017) titled Total Force Aircrew Management Analytic Support. This report documents work shared with the U.S. Air Force as recently as April 20, 2017. iii RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on April 20, 2017. The draft report, issued on June 6, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ........................................................................................................................................... viii Summary ........................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xvi 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Overview of the Rated Officer Life Cycle ............................................................................................... 2 Total Force Aircrew Management Charter ............................................................................................... 5 The Importance of Long-Term Career Field Management ...................................................................... 5 Our Approach ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................... 8 2. Total Force Blue Line Model Overview ..................................................................................... 9 Model Inputs and Assumptions ................................................................................................................ 9 Model Objective Function and Constraints ............................................................................................ 15 3. The Impact of Retention on Inventory Levels with Fixed Production ..................................... 19 Baseline Results ...................................................................................................................................... 19 Major Airline Hiring Results .................................................................................................................. 23 Comparing Pilot Shortfall with Baseline and Major Airline Hiring Losses ........................................... 27 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 28 4. The Impact on Inventory Levels of Optimizing Production for Pilots ..................................... 29 Constraints on Production Quantities ..................................................................................................... 29 Optimized Production Results with Major Airline Hiring Losses ......................................................... 30 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 35 5. The Impact of Optimizing Production on Inventory Levels for CSOs, ABMs, and RPA Pilots ............................................................................................................................... 36 Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 36 The Effect of Optimizing Production on CSO Inventories .................................................................... 38 The Effect of Optimizing Production on ABM Inventory ..................................................................... 40 The Effect of Optimizing Production on
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