Evaluation of Sida Financed Interventions for Increased Access to Electricity for Poor People
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Evaluation of Sida financed interventions for Evaluation of Sida financed interventions for increased access to Electricity for poor people 2014:1 Sida Evaluation increased access to Electricity for poor people This report evaluates the contribution Sweden has made to development and poverty Dolf Noppen reduction in Vietnam from the inception of the development co-operation program in 1967 to 2011. The evaluation draws five main conclusions: (i) Sweden responded to important multidimensional development needs in Vietnam. (ii) There is mixed evidence of effective and efficient delivery of Swedish development co-operation in Vietnam. (iii) There is clear evidence that the Swedish development co-operation nurtured an environ- Evaluation of Sida financed ment in Vietnam that assisted in providing the pre-conditions for sustained poverty reduction. (iv) The evaluation points to three key lessons learned for future development interventions for increased access co-operation. (v) The evaluation concludes that Swedish development co-operation with Vietnam has had strong poverty reducing impacts. This report is one of three reports commissioned by Sida to evaluate countries in Asia to Electricity for poor people (also Laos and Sri Lanka) where Swedish development co-operation is being, or has been, phased out. It is complemented by a synthesis report. Drawing on international experience and case studies in Tanzania and Mozambique Sida EVALUATION 2014:1 SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY Address: SE-105 25 Stockholm, Sweden. Visiting address: Valhallavägen 199. Phone: +46 (0)8-698 50 00. Fax: +46 (0)8-20 88 64. www.sida.se [email protected] Sida Evaluation 2014:1 Evaluation of Sida financed interventions for increased access to Electricity for poor people DRAWING ON INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND CASE STUDIES IN TANZANIA AND MOZAMBIQUE Synthesis Report Dolf Noppen Author: Dolf Noppen. With: Julie Thaarup, José Valente, Per Kirkemann, Anja Nordlund, Adam Spliid, Andrew Mnzava, Maria Cecilia Pedro; and Robert Le Blanc (Quality Assurance) Evaluation of Sida financed interventions for increased access to Electricity for poor people, drawing on international experience and case studies in Tanzania and Mozambique. The views and interpretations expressed in this report are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida. Sida Evaluation 2014:1 Commissioned by Sida, Unit for Monitoring and Evaluation Published by: Sida, 2014 Copyright: Sida and the authors Date of final report: January 2014 Art.no.: SIDA61729en URN:NBN: urn:nbn:se:sida-61729en ISBN 978-91-586-4245-4 This publication can be downloaded/ordered from www.Sida.se/publications Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................. 10 Exchange rates............................................................................. 13 Disclaimer .................................................................................... 13 Executive Summary ............................................................................ 14 1 Introduction ................................................................................. 24 2 Evaluation Framework .............................................................. 27 2.1 Definitions ...........................................................................27 2.2 Theory of Change ................................................................28 3 The Global Context of Rural Electrification ............................. 32 3.1 Financial, technical and institutional challenges .............32 3.2 Sida in the sector ................................................................36 3.3 Long-term commitment and financing ............................38 4 Country context for Rural Electrification in Mozambique and Tanzania ................................................................................ 39 4.1 Sida support (Mozambique) ...............................................39 4.2 Sida support (Tanzania) ......................................................40 5 Answers to the Evaluation Questions ...................................... 42 5.1 Relevance ............................................................................43 5.1.1 Alignment with stated needs and priorities ..........43 5.1.2 Relevance to people living in poverty ..................46 5.2 Efficiency .............................................................................50 5.2.1 Cost-effectiveness of interventions ....................50 5.2.2 Programme design and implementation modalities ............................................................... 55 5.3 Effectiveness.......................................................................63 5.3.1 Achievement of objectives .....................................63 5.4 Impact ..................................................................................72 5.4.1 Effects on living conditions ....................................72 5.4.2 Impact on poverty ..................................................80 5.5 Sustainability ......................................................................84 5.5.1 Environmental consequences ..............................84 5.5.2 Sustainability of interventions ...............................89 5.5.3 Sustainability factors .............................................94 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 Key Issues and Lessons Learned .............................................99 6.1 Access Area focus or Household Connection focus ........99 6.2 Tariff policies and payment practices .............................102 6.3 Poverty impact and the increase of well-being ..............104 6.4 Electricity within a broader energy context.................... 107 6.5 Gender ................................................................................110 6.6 Appropriate administrative level ......................................111 7 Conclusions.................................................................................113 7.1 Overall conclusions ............................................................113 7.2 Conclusions according to the evaluation criteria ............114 8 Recommendations .....................................................................116 Annexes .............................................................................................. 121 Annex 1: Terms of Reference. .......................................................... 121 Annex 2: Evaluation Questions and Judgement Criteria Matrix .132 Annex 3: Methodology ...................................................................... 145 Annex 4: Maps of the national grid in Mozambique and Tanzania .............................................................................. 150 Annex 5: Mozambique and Tanzania Country Context ................. 152 Annex 5.1 Mozambique Country Context .............................. 152 5.1.1 Economy and institutions .................................... 152 5.1.2 The Energy situation ............................................ 155 5.1.3 Sida support .........................................................156 5.1.4 Mozambique Mega Projects................................ 157 Annex 5.2 Tanzania Country Context .....................................158 5.2.1 Economy and institutions .................................... 158 5.2.2 The Energy Situation .............................................161 5.2.3 Sida support .........................................................162 5.2.4 Tanzania Mega Projects ...................................... 164 Annex 6: Recommendations from the Country Case Studies ..... 166 Annex 6.1: Recommendations – Mozambique Country Case Study .........................................................................166 Annex 6.2: Recommendations – Tanzania Country Case Study .........................................................................170 Annex 7: Household Air Pollution and the links to kerosene lighting and cooking with biomass. ........................................ 173 Annex 8: Power supply reliability and the development of the private sector ............................................................................ 179 6 Annex 9: List of documents consulted ............................................ 182 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables Table 1 Multi-donor programmes in the Energy Sector ........37 Table 2 Sida financed rural electrification projects in Mozambique between 1997 and 2010 ...............................40 Table 3 Sida financed rural electrification projects in Tanzania 1985–2010 ........................................................40 Table 4 Tanzania: tracking intervention budgets and costs ...51 Table 5 Mozambique: project budget tracking ....................... 52 Table 6 Mozambique: impact of climatic events on implementation .................................................................. 52 Table 7 Mozambique: Evolution of cost per connection related to initial project budgets (in SEK) .........................53 Table 8 Mozambique: advantages and disadvantages of SWER technology ........................................................... 57 Table 9 Mozambique: development partner dialogue on issues of principle ...............................................................61 Table 10 Tanzania: flat-rate tariffs versus charging according to real consumption ..........................................66 Table 11 Tanzania: Connection of public services in case study administrative