Mozambique Food Security Update: January 20, 2000 HIGHLIGHTS Ø Below normal rains fell over most of southern Mozambique during December. Rainfall was mixed in central areas, with coastal areas receiving above-normal rainfall and inland areas below-normal rainfall. Most northern areas continued to receive above-normal rainfall during December. Xai-Xai reported the lowest cumulative rainfall, with 60 mm, while Beira reported the wettest conditions, with 289 mm. The Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum had previously forecast above-normal rains for January, February and March 2001. Ø The water levels of Rios Incomati, Limpopo, and Umbeluzi decreased substantially in December 2000, relieving fears of early flooding in these areas. However, the water level of Rio Zambeze continues to rise, causing concern. Rio Chire flooded in some areas, displacing almost 600 people in Zambezia Province. Ø Crops are performing well as adequate rains continued falling in December. Annual crops are in the flowering and grain-filling stages in the southern and central zones of the country. The Ministry of Agriculture (MADER) expects overall cereal production to increase by six percent this year over last year’s level. This increase is mainly due to an expansion in the area under production and good rainfall distribution. Most of the increased production will come from maize, as rice production is forecast to drop by almost 20 percent from last year’s level. Ø The government has approved the Contingency Plan for 2000/01 (May-April). The Plan empowers the local community to respond for natural disasters. Ø As of January 2001, national cereal stock levels were adequate to meet consumption needs. Retail maize prices in most markets during the last six months of 2000 were generally lower than those observed during the same period in 1999. Current inflation levels in Maputo are estimated at 12 percent. Ø The devastating floods of early 2000 caused a slow-down in the economic growth of Mozambique. The economy grew by 3.8 percent in 2000, compared to the recent average of 10 percent per year. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) is funded by USAID and managed by Chemonics International Inc. FEWS NET Mozambique · Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development · National Directorate of Agriculture PO Box 1406 · Maputo, Mozambique Telephone: (258-1) 460008/460195/460588 · Facsimile: (258-1) 460588 · E-Mail: [email protected] Mozambique FEWS NET Food Security Update: January 20, 2000 2 MIXED RAINFALL PERFORMANCE IN DECEMBER 2000 Observed Rainfall Compared to Reports from the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) Normal (mm), December 2000 indicate mixed rainfall performance during December 2000. Overall, central and northern parts of the country received near- normal or above-normal rainfall, whereas most southern areas 190 125 received below-normal rainfall. The coastal areas of Maputo, 236 228 Pemba Xai-Xai, Inhambane and Nampula, reported rainfall levels 18 to 52 percent below normal, with Xai-Xai reporting the largest Lichinga deviation from normal, alomg with Tete in the central region), 216 150 where December rainfall was 52 percent below normal. In 147 contrast, the coastal areas of Vilanculo, Beira, Zambezia and 70 168 125 Nampula Pemba, along with the inland areas of Chimoio and Lichinga Tete reported rainfall levels ranging from near normal to as much as Cuamba 64 percent above normal. Beira reported the highest level of 164 155 221 189 rainfall in December, with 289 mm of rain. 289 234 Quelimane During the first dekad of December, INAM reported above- Chimoio Beira normal rains, ranging from 52 percent to 251 percent above- 236 normal, over Vilanculo, Chimoio, Beira, Quelimane, Pemba, and 144 Lichinga. Lichinga recorded the highest level rainfall, with 147 mm of rain. Rainfall levels were lower in most areas during the Vilanculo second dekad of December, with exception of Vilanculo and 124 80 Maputo, where rains were 57 percent and 100 percent above 127 62 Inhambane normal rainfall, respectively. Below-normal rains continued into the third dekad of December in most parts of the country, with Xai-Xai Observed 109 133 the exception of Vilanculo, which received near-normal rainfall, Rainfall and Beira and Pemba, which received above-normal rainfall Maputo Normal levels of 150 mm and 106 mm, respectively. Rainfall Source: National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) Dekadal Rainfall for December 2000, Observed Compared to Normal (mm) 1-10 December 2000 11-20 December 2000 21-31 December 2000 160 160 160 Observed Rainfall Observed Rainfall Observed Rainfall 140 140 140 Normal Ra infall Normal Rainfall Normal Rainfall 120 120 120 Observe 100 100 Normal 100 80 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 Vilanculo Inhambane Xai Chimoio Tete Beira Q Pemba Lichinga Nampula Vilanculo Inhambane Xai Chimoio Tete Beira Quelimane Pemba Lichinga Nampula Vilanculo Inhambane Xai Chimoio Tete Beira Quelimane Pemba Lichinga Nampula 0 Maputo 0 Maputo 0 Maputo uelimane - - - Xai Xai Xai Source: National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) Rainfall estimates from METEOSAT satellite imagery corroborate the pattern of above-normal rains in the north, and somewhat below-normal rainfall in southern and central Mozambique during December 2000. OBSERVED RAINFALL COMPARED TO NORMAL RAINFALL, THROUGH 31 DECEMBER 2000 Northern Mozambique Central Mozambique Southern Mozambique 100 160 100 80 120 80 60 60 80 40 40 20 40 20 0 0 0 Source: METEOSAT Satellite Imagery, http://users.erols.com/vikki.french/index.html Mozambique FEWS NET Food Security Update: January 20, 2000 3 WATER LEVEL CONTINUES TO RISE IN THE RIO ZAMBEZE The water level of Rio Zambeze continued to rise in Zumbo Major River Systems of Mozambique and Mutarara Districts in Tete Province, sparking concern Rio Ruvumo over possible floods. The Ministry of Public Works and Housing, through the National Directorate of Water (MOPH), stated that the water level rose from 3.5 to 3.7 meters in l Pemba Lichinga Zumbo and from 4.1 to 4.9 meters in Mutarara during l December. The critical level for floods in Zumbo and Dondo Rio Lurio Mutarara are 6.0 and 6.9 meters, respectively. At present, Mutarara l the situation in these districts is under control. However, the Nampula Tete National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) has l intensified monitoring efforts along the river. Rainfall levels Rio Chire Rio Zambeze l during the first ten days of January have been above normal Cuamba in Tete. Morrumbala Rio Pungue Chimoio l l Beira Rio Gorongosa Flooding displaces 600 people in Zambezia Province Rio Save Vilancul Rio Limpopo l More than 575 people lost their houses and about 1,375 o hectares of cropland were lost in Morrumbala District in Rio Govuro Inhambane Massingir Dam Zambezia Province as result of flooding along the Rio Chire. l (Rio Elefante) The displaced population is from the lower Chire basin, as Rio Incomati Pequenos Libombos l indicated on the map. INGC recommended that affected Xai-Xai Dam (Rio Umbeluzi) Maputo Corrumana Dam households move to safer areas. J (Rio Sabie) Rio Maputo Flood Prone Areas Other River Levels Drop Water levels of Rios Maputo, Incomati and Umbeluzi decreased significantly in December and January. As a result, the Regional Water Administration of South (Ara Sul) interrupted water discharges from Pequenos Libombo and Massingir Dams. CROP PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE According to officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), overall food production for the 2000/01 season will increase slightly by 6 percent from last year’s production levels. MADER forecasts a harvest of approximately 1,590,000 metric tons (MT) of cereals, compared to last year’s production of about 1,475,000 MT. The forecast for increased food production is primarily a result of more land under production Forecast for Rice Production and the favorable rainfall distribution so far in the season, along Down by 20 percent with the favorable forecast for normal to above-normal rainfall for January through March 2001. Cumulative rainfall to date has Despite forecasts for overall gains ensured good development of annual crops, helped improve fruit in food production this year, DINA/ trees and pasture, and improved water availability for livestock. MADER, expects a 20 percent drop in rice production in the 2000/01 Crops planted in mid-October and early-November 2000 are now cropping season. The main at the flowering and/or grain-filling stages. Farmers started reasons for this drop include seed harvesting green maize for household consumption as early as shortages and the widespread des- December and, more recently, modest quantities of mature maize, truction of irrigation systems in mainly in the southern and central regions. Overall, crops are in Chokwe (Gaza Province) due to the good condition. However, an outbreak Cassava Brown Streak 2000 floods. Disease in Zambezia, Nampula, and Cabo Delgado Provinces was reported by researchers from the National Institute for Agricultural Research (INIA) and the Southern Africa Root Research Network (SARNET). The possible impact of this outbreak will be carefully monitored. Mozambique FEWS NET Food Security Update: January 20, 2000 4 MOZAMBIQUE INTENSIFIES FOOT AND MOUTH VACINATION PROGRAM Foot and Mouth Vaccination Campaigns Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a viral disease that was prevalent in Zambezia, Gaza and Maputo Provinces until 1984 when the National Directorate of Livestock of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, through its Provincial Livestock Service (DINAP/MADER), intensified its annual vaccination program. The vaccination program has been successful, as no clinical outbreaks of FMD have been observed in Mozambique since 1985. In early 2000, DINAP/MADER introduced a new vaccination program covering an 80-km stretch of the Beira corridor and a 60-km area along the South African border, from Chicualacuala (Gaza Province) to Namaacha (Maputo Province).