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Egypt Security Forces View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2013-12 Allegiance: Egypt security forces Read, Christopher S. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/38998 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ALLEGIANCE: EGYPT SECURITY FORCES by Christopher S. Read December 2013 Thesis Advisor: Anne Marie Baylouny Second Reader: Erik Dahl Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2013 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ALLEGIANCE: EGYPT SECURITY FORCES 6. AUTHOR(S) Christopher S. Read 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943–5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) In Egypt, opposition groups challenged the Mubarak Regime and toppled it. More than two years later, demonstrators against the military-backed government that deposed President Morsi were brutally put down and rule stayed with the junta. This thesis examines those events in Egypt and focuses on opposition tactics used and the response elicited from security force elements. It seeks to discover where, in 2011, security forces were not given or disobeyed the order to shoot protestors and, in 2013, ruthlessly followed that order. This thesis analyzes opposition tactics and questions whether those actions elicited loyalty shifts within security forces and how any such shifts impacted the ability to achieve political change. The thesis uses a synthesis of objectives developed by Anika Binnendijk, labeled the “Five Strategic Objective” framework, along with social movement theory as they apply it to challenger actions. To these the author adds foreign involvement and internal dynamics. Data is gathered through in-depth review of relevant documentation: published news, discussions, books, and reputable web sources. Analysis of the sources shows that in 2011, a broad based appeal generated sympathy within security forces that precluded obeying a shoot order and that such sympathy was not present in 2013 14. SUBJECT TERMS Allegiance Shift, Loyalty shift, Egypt, Arab Spring, Arab Uprising, Mubarak, 15. NUMBER OF Morsi, Uprising, Security Forces, SCAF, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, Demonstrations, PAGES Protests, Regime Change 139 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT UU Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ALLEGIANCE: EGYPT SECURITY FORCES Christopher S. Read Major, United States Army B.A., Georgia Southern University, 2001 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2013 Author: Christopher S. Read Approved by: Anne-Marie Baylouny Thesis Advisor Erik Dahl Second Reader Mohammed Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT In Egypt, opposition groups challenged the Mubarak Regime and toppled it. More than two years later, demonstrators against the military-backed government that deposed President Morsi were brutally put down and rule stayed with the junta. This thesis examines those events in Egypt and focuses on opposition tactics used and the response elicited from security force elements. It seeks to discover where, in 2011, security forces were not given or disobeyed the order to shoot protestors and, in 2013, ruthlessly followed that order. This thesis analyzes opposition tactics and questions whether those actions elicited loyalty shifts within security forces and how any such shifts impacted the ability to achieve political change. The thesis uses a synthesis of objectives developed by Anika Binnendijk, labeled the “Five Strategic Objective” framework, along with social movement theory as they apply it to challenger actions. To these the author adds foreign involvement and internal dynamics. Data is gathered through in-depth review of relevant documentation: published news, discussions, books, and reputable web sources. Analysis of the sources shows that in 2011, a broad based appeal generated sympathy within security forces that precluded obeying a shoot order and that such sympathy was not present in 2013. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. PRIMARY PURPOSE .....................................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................1 C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES ...............................................................2 D. METHODS AND SOURCES ..........................................................................3 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .....................................................................................4 II. LITERATURE REVIEW ...........................................................................................7 A. SECURITY FORCES ......................................................................................7 B. RATIONAL CHOICE .....................................................................................8 C. FRAMES .........................................................................................................11 D. LEGITIMACY ...............................................................................................12 E. NONVIOLENCE ...........................................................................................14 III. “ARAB SPRING” OF 2011.......................................................................................17 A. EIGHTEEN DAYS ........................................................................................17 B. SECURITY FORCES: BACKGROUND ....................................................19 1. Ministry of Defense ............................................................................20 2. Interior Ministry ................................................................................22 C. SECURITY FORCE: RESPONSES ............................................................26 1. Interior Ministry ................................................................................26 2. Ministry of Defense ............................................................................32 D. ASSESSMENT OF STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES ......................................36 1. Expose Regime Illegitimacy ..............................................................37 2. Establish Challenger Legitimacy ......................................................41 3. Raise Repressive Costs ......................................................................44 4. Reduce Accommodation Costs..........................................................48 5. Highlight Success Potential ...............................................................51 IV. REGIME CHANGE OF 2013 ...................................................................................53 A. ELECTIONS, RIOTS AND MILITARY INTERVENTION ....................53 B. SECURITY FORCE RESPONSES..............................................................57 1. Interior Ministry ................................................................................58 2. Ministry of Defense ............................................................................59 C. INCIDENTS ...................................................................................................60 1. 8 July 2013 ..........................................................................................60 2. 27 July 2013 ........................................................................................62 3. 14 August 2013
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