Forecast 2017: Our Writers’ Predictions for the New Year Contents

Egypt | 2 Lebanon | 5 Ayah Aman Haytham Mouzahem Shahira Amin North Africa | 5 Walaa Hussein Sarah Souli Gulf | 2 Giorgio Cafiero Palestine | 6 Ibrahim al-Hatlani Asmaa al-Ghoul Amal Nasser Daoud Kuttab Bruce Riedel Russia | 6 Yury Barmin Iran | 3 Vitaly Naumkin Maysam Bizaer Paul Saunders Rohollah Faghihi Maxim A. Suchkov Ali Hashem Saeid Jafari Syria | 7 Alireza Ramezani Asaad Hanna Mohammad Ali Shabani Kamal Sheikho Iraq | 4 Turkey | 7-8 Ali Mamouri Mustafa Akyol Mustafa Saadoun Ali Bayramoglu Saad Salloum Mahmut Bozarslan Cengiz Candar Israel | 4-5 Metin Gurcan Ben Caspit Semih Idiz Akiva Eldar Fehim Tastekin Shlomi Eldar Pinar Tremblay Mazal Mualem Amberin Zaman Uri Savir US | 8 Jordan | 5 Julian Pecquet Osama al-Sharif Laura Rozen

Credits Cover: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images Page 3: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Page 4: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images Page 6: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images Page 7: Reuters/Bassam Khabieh

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© 2016 Al-Monitor 1 on the issue of reconciliation with the Walaa Hussein Brotherhood. Sisi will nonetheless release small groups of detained hopes for many things in 2017, young men. Security problems are including an end to the economic Ayah Aman expected to continue in Sinai. crisis, control of the budget deficit, Shahira Amin stability of the local currency after In 2017, President Abdel Fattah the flotation of the pound, quelling al-Sisi will be heading Egypt’s I predict that in the year 2017, terrorism in Sinai and reaching a political administration for the third Egypt will see a surge in Islamist solution to the Renaissance Dam consecutive year, after years of political militancy with the insurgency in crisis. The tourism sector will be and economic turmoil that followed northern Sinai spilling into other slightly revived, while the issue of the the January 2011 revolution and the parts of the country. These attacks Tiran and Sanafir islands will continue ousting of the will target civilians — especially to cloud Egyptian-Saudi relations. regime in 2013. On the economic Coptic Christians — with the aim of Cairo will hold on to the stick- front, there will not be any radical enflaming sectarian divisions of the and-carrot approach in its relations reforms, but the situation could be kind seen in Iraq and Syria. Egypt’s between the United States and subject to further complications in already hard-hit tourism industry Russia. Sisi’s opponents in the maintaining austerity policies, while will be dealt a severe blow and the upcoming elections will have a strong foreign investment could be limited ailing economy will decline further. presence on the political scene. to short-term investments. However, I also predict the government will There will also be major propaganda prices will continue to rise and the intensify its security crackdown promoting Sisi’s land-distribution quantities of medicine and basic on dissent. I expect tensions with project, under which 1.5 million acres goods will still be limited, which will Ethiopia over the building of the of land will be granted for cultivation prompt large numbers of citizens to dam, and Egypt may resort to or residential units to citizens. Social take to the streets and protest the military force as a muscle-flexing media will play a major role in crisis harsh living conditions. Meanwhile, attempt to secure its share of the management between Egyptian 2017 will not see any developments waters. society and the state. Ibrahim al-Hatlani retaliation against the Houthis, but Gulf Saudi King Salman will likely this is unlikely as the humanitarian be the last son of founding King situation is expected to worsen Abdul-Aziz Al Saud to govern the with increasing prospects of hunger Giorgio Cafiero kingdom. The domestic political becoming a full-scale catastrophe as To fend off external threats, UAE situation in Saudi Arabia is stable long as the humanitarian response officials in Abu Dhabi will continue and under control. However, this plan remains partially funded. The working closely with Washington stability, without a constitutional war will continue due to the lack of while seeking to enhance security mechanism to transfer power willingness of the warring factions partnerships with Eastern powers. and ensure the citizens’ right to — especially the domestic ones — By assessing Russia’s return to the participation and political oversight, to end it. Middle East and sharing Moscow’s will be compromised if the king dies. Bruce Riedel ...the UAE, Egypt and Jordan Although Mohammed bin Nayef ’s Saudi Arabia will be on the will enhance counter-terrorism presence guarantees his cousin bin defensive in the Gulf and with cooperation with Moscow... Salman’s staying in the medium America in 2017. Bogged down in term crown prince chain, he cannot Yemen and with Iran and Russia concerns about the rise of extremist protect him from the repercussions of resurgent in Syria, the kingdom will forces in the region, the UAE, Egypt rising complaints about the draining struggle to keep up with its Iranian and Jordan will enhance counter- economic decisions targeting rival, including in OPEC. Low oil terrorism cooperation with Moscow citizens with limited income. to further combat militant Sunni Amal Nasser ...the kingdom will struggle to fundamentalists in the Levant and keep up with its Iranian rival, The conflict in Yemen is unlikely to including in OPEC. Maghreb. The UAE has established end. A Saudi exit is only possible itself as Russia’s closest GCC ally and The war will continue due to the prices will impose some unpopular built a relationship with Moscow that lack of willingness of the warring economies at home. In the United has great potential to mature, despite factions — especially the States the Saudis will face 9/11 unease in Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, domestic ones — to end it. lawsuits and growing skepticism. Kuwait and Oman will follow the If the king’s health falters, the UAE’s lead in terms of cooperating if a deal is reached between local succession issue will become with Russia to counter transnational warring parties. Both the Saudis dominant. All eyes will be on the security threats facing the Persian and the government of President king’s son, Muhammad bin Salman, Gulf littoral states. Hadi are counting on popular and whether his judgment is sound. 2 Iran Maysam Bizaer Rohollah Faghihi Ali Hashem If re-elected in the May 2017 President Hassan Rouhani, who is The election of Trump as US presidential election, Hassan the only chance for the Reformists’ president will probably shape Rouhani’s main challenges will be to survival, will fight for a second the course of regional crises, but deal with Donald Trump as the US term against conservatives who are won’t bring an end to the tragedies president, and to pursue his economic still divided and striving to reach a in the region. The deal on Iran’s policies to tackle unemployment coalition around a single candidate. nuclear program will probably and materialize economic growth. Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher survive for this year, yet any serious While Trump’s stated plans — if Ghalibaf is one of the possible failures will be exploited by the implemented — are expected to candidates, but his reputation has conservatives in the next presidential affect Rouhani’s economic goals, been damaged by a recent corruption elections in Iran in May 2017. facts on the ground indicate that scandal. Moreover, the fate of the In Syria, backers of the armed the interest of European and Asian nuclear deal might be determined opposition are likely to resume their businesses in entering the Iranian in the coming year as Trump takes support with a new strategy. Allies market will increase in 2017 at a US presidential office. His decision of Assad are expected to invest faster pace. With expected economic on whether to destroy the deal more effort into supporting him growth of over 5%, Iran could further will surely affect the outcome of but avoid paying a political price for strengthen its position as a key Iran’s presidential election. Trump’s negotiations. regional power. acquiescence to hawks in Washington Mohammad Ali Shabani Saeid Jafari may be to moderates’ and Reformists’ loss. Iran will continue promoting A prediction last year that Trump Alireza Ramezani multilateral talks on Syria with the would be the winner of the US inclusion of Saudi Arabia while presidential election and that the UK President Hassan Rouhani will face suspecting that Russia and the United would exit the EU would have been a serious challenge in getting re- US sanctions over alleged support for doubted. Thus, one must be more elected in 2017. He will be under terrorism and human rights violations cautious when it comes to predicting pressure by ultraconservatives at won’t break the nuclear deal... 2017. The likely trends are that home over a rise of anti-Iranian conflicts in the region will continue sentiment in the US Congress and States may go over its head. As in and the Islamic State will grow the White House. On the other Syria, a large part of Iranian policy stronger as its branches persist in their hand, he will have to persuade in Iraq after seizing Mosul will be underground activities. Erdogan’s the Iranian public to vote for his to help contain conflict between the authoritarianism will erode Turkey’s economic reforms to be implemented Kurds and the central government. democracy and its hostility toward during his second term. Despite all US sanctions over alleged support for Europe and friendship with the East pressure, he will win the election, as terrorism and human rights violations will be emboldened. Syrian President the Islamic establishment prefers a won’t break the nuclear deal, with Bashar al-Assad will survive and a moderate administration in Tehran signatories remaining committed to power transition will begin in Syria. to safeguard the achievements of the the accord — albeit with lukewarm Iran and the US will reach minimal hard-won nuclear agreement, given European pushback against Trump. agreements and Washington will the emergence of hawkish elements Iran’s Asian trading partners are the maintain its pressure on Tehran. in Washington. winners in this scenario. 3 Iraq

Ali Mamouri 2017, in the post-IS phase. Like 2015 beneath the poverty line. and 2016, the country is expected to Saad Salloum 2017 will be the end of the Islamic be caught up in a vicious circle of State in Iraq, as Iraqi joint forces are political conflicts between groups A major conflict will erupt in kicking it out of its last strongholds affiliated with armed factions, which 2017 between the Arabs and the in Mosul. However, the challenges could be the prelude to what Iraqis Kurds over disputed areas. Violent of the post-IS era will not fade away Protests will increase in the conflicts will continue in minority easily. The internal actors — mainly upcoming year as the economic areas in Iraq (Ninevah plain and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites — have crisis inevitably affects the situation Sinjar in Ninevah province). This already started competing over the in the south of the country... will make it more difficult for spoils of the war. Meanwhile, the displaced Christians, Yazidis and regional powers — in particular fear could be a major armed conflict. Shabaks to return to these regions. Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia — are Protests will increase in the upcoming In light of the failure to preserve competing for influence. US policy year as the economic crisis inevitably minority groups’ rights in the under the Trump presidency will affects the situation in the south of negotiations for peace agreements, be a crucial factor for Iraq in 2017. the country, prompting the residents minority groups that are involved Will the United States continue to of Basra province in particular to with the conflict but not active allow regional actors to compete in demand the biggest share of oil. participants will not be able to this way, or will it put an end to it? Other southern provinces could be part of the settlement process. Mustafa Saadoun follow suit — particularly the Minorities could be kept on the liberated areas, whose infrastructure sidelines while the fate of their Current events in Iraq make it easy has been completely destroyed and homeland is determined in the to predict the country’s situation in where many residents have fallen post-IS phase. particularly now that he is forced to the Palestinian Authority from contend with suspicions against him collapsing and Hamas from seizing Israel that could coalesce into a criminal control of the West Bank. Pressure Ben Caspit investigation. from the far right on Netanyahu will Akiva Eldar lead to early elections and change The terms “definition” and the Israeli political map. “arrangement” will be at the center In June 2017, Israel will celebrate of everything that happens here in the 50th anniversary of the Shlomi Eldar 2017. Trump will define the path that “liberation of Jerusalem” from At the November Fatah conference, his administration will follow only the Arabs, while the Arabs will President Mahmoud Abbas once everything is already in motion, commemorate the 50th anniversary declared that 2017 will be the learning from brute experience that of the occupation of Jerusalem by “Year of Decision.” He hopes that the world looks completely different Jews. If there is no real progress in a Palestinian state will finally be from the Oval Office. There will be the Palestinian-Israeli peace process established. Only then could he reap an “arrangement” in Syria, where the until then, with active support from the political benefits of his decades bloody war is about to exhaust itself. the international community, we of labor and retire as “founder of The close relationship between can expect the situation to heat up the State of Palestine.” But this goal Trump and Russian President by the summer. The lack of any real seems far from practicable now. It is Vladimir Putin will ensure that Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and already clear that support from the Damascus and the Shiite axis have tumultuous celebrations by young Trump administration is out of reach. a future in the region. Unlike during right-wing extremists in the heart With France facing presidential the Barack Obama era, Prime of Jerusalem’s Muslim Quarter elections, the Palestinian-Israeli Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will will bring about havoc. Under conflict won’t be a European attempt to forge an alliance with pressure from the EU, the Trump priority. Unlike Abbas, other Fatah Trump, but Netanyahu’s hopes may administration will be forced to leaders believe that a Palestinian not withstand the test of reality, take immediate steps to prevent state will not be established soon 4 Israel (continued) and that Abbas will end his rule of elections. Netanyahu’s fourth radical right. The Assad regime in 2017 regardless. His stepping government also benefits from the will have the blessing of the United down, they estimate, will provoke total collapse of the Zionist Camp, States and Russia and the war a brutal succession war, forcing the the major opposition party. On the against the Islamic State will not Palestinian Authority to focus more other hand, Yesh Atid chairman The Palestinians will opt on survival than on fulfilling the Yair Lapid continues to stand out for an armed intifada. Israel vision that motivates Abbas. as a key player and the most likely will go to elections with Mazal Mualem person to run against Netanyahu for Netanyahu as a favorite. prime minister in the next election. Despite all of the investigations Uri Savir prove successful. The United States into Netanyahu and his immediate will send more ground troops to surroundings and regardless of This year, the international balance Syria and may become a target internal disputes within the coalition, of power will change. Russia will for IS terror. America’s standing the Israeli mood at the start of 2017 become a more equal partner in the world will deteriorate. The will be one of political stability. to the United States, the EU a Palestinians will opt for an armed Netanyahu may have started 2016 more fragmented one. European intifada. Israel will go to elections On the other hand, Yesh Atid countries will move more to the with Netanyahu as a favorite. chairman Yair Lapid continues to stand out as a key player and the most likely person to run against Lebanon Netanyahu for prime minister in the Haytham Mouzahem and allows chronic service-related next election. problems to be solved. However, Lebanon’s economy will be better in the sectarian polarization that has with a narrow coalition, but once 2017 than 2016. The tourism and real colored disputes over ministerial current Defense Minister Avigdor estate sectors will prosper, especially portfolios and the expected adoption Liberman joined the government, The tourism and real estate of a new law for parliamentary Netanyahu finally had a stable sectors will prosper, especially in elections — which are supposed to government. Not one of the factions the event of the return of the Gulf take place in the summer of 2017 that make up his coalition has any tourists to Lebanon. — show that Lebanon will witness interest in leaving it right now, since a struggle for power and for balanced doing so would result in a new round in the event of the return of the Gulf sectarian and partisan representation. tourists to Lebanon. Now that the Hezbollah will continue to fight in first government under President Syria against extremist groups, but it Michel Aoun has been formed, there will seek to maintain its alliance with Jordan will be a breakthrough as work for Aoun and contain the Gulf attempts Osama al-Sharif political and economic reform starts to break it up. For Jordan, the economy will be the biggest challenge in 2017 as the kingdom grapples with a North Africa $1.1 billion budget deficit, a total debt of $36 billion and sluggish Sarah Souli Looking westward, strategic US- growth, made worse by regional Six years since the revolution, 2017 Tunisian relations are likely to turmoil. The government, which is poised to be a relatively stable However, should Trump’s Middle promised to cut expenses as part year for Tunisia. Security has been East policy change, it could have of an austerity plan, is expected tightened, municipal elections are drastic effects on Tunisia, with to adopt unpopular measures like on track for March and $8 billion fighting spilling over from Libya, raising taxes and ending subsidies in foreign investments pledged and more fighters leaving to — or to increase revenues. With high in November will start rolling returning from — Syria. unemployment and poverty rates, in. But the government, accused further austerity measures will of corruption, mismanaging remain the same. However, should present a security challenge as well. funds and ignoring Tunisia’s Trump’s Middle East policy change, Jordan’s dependence on foreign aid interior, must urgently address it could have drastic effects on has grown in recent years as a result the persistent unemployment Tunisia, with fighting spilling of hosting more than 1.2 million that has resulted in bubbling over from Libya and more fighters Syrians, half of whom are refugees. tensions and frequent labor strikes. leaving for or returning from Syria. 5 Palestine

Asmaa al-Ghoul toward Hamas will intensify with for regular movement with Egypt. Trump’s presidency and in light of The Palestinian National Council The world is falling apart. Gaza Turkey’s withdrawal of its support will meet and Khaled Meshaal will be no better off than Egypt, from the Muslim Brotherhood and will be appointed to a ceremonial Syria, Libya and Iraq, where chaos Gaza. The world will be preoccupied position within the PLO. This will be prevails and civilians are getting with regional wars while Gaza will followed by the creation of a national killed as a result of power struggles. witness internal bloodshed. Israel unity government, possibly headed Gaza will approach the brink of will continue to aggravate Palestine’s by Fatah’s Mohammad Shtayyeh and war, an internal one this time, as never healing wounds. with Cabinet members close to (but the blockade by Israel, Egypt and not in) Hamas, the for the world intensifies, the crisis over Daoud Kuttab the Liberation of Palestine and the salaries and high prices continues The core Israeli-PalestinianDemocratic Front for the Liberation and pressure increases on Hamas. relationship of occupier and of Palestine, followed by presidential One cannot bet on anything. occupied will not change in 2017, and parliamentary elections. Jibril President Mahmoud Abbas will but the Gaza split will be resolved. Rajoub will be appointed deputy to leave office. Regional hostilityThe Rafah crossing will be opened Abbas. Turkey will be on the rise with a US-China relations before formally possibility of a certain setback given entering office. His determination Russia disagreements on the Syrian crisis to put the United States and its Yury Barmin and the Kurds in Syria. Russia’s interests first could have profound contribution to pushing forward consequences. Russia will look to solidify gains the Israeli-Palestinian peace process Maxim A. Suchkov in Syria by pushing for a deal and inter-Palestinian unity talks with external opposition backers. Russia will seek to partner with the will be regarded as a means of new US administration in tackling Moscow will likely seek wider developing better relations with the political involvement in other IS. Should such a partnership Sunni world. One of Russia’s goals become a reality it will be key to contexts, such as the Libyan crisis in the region will be to enhance and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. addressing other challenges in Syria, cooperation with the Gulf states at including bringing the warring Putin may double down on IS in the energy markets. Syria, fearing its amassing in Syria Paul Saunders parties to the negotiating table, after the offensives in Mosul and working out a new constitution, Raqqa and the return of fighters to 2017 may be a year of great power forming a transitional government the Caucasus. Capitalizing on its politics. Frictions between great and rebuilding the country. Moscow growing clout, Moscow will reach powers underlie conflicts in strategic will look at cooperation with out to new regional clients for regions in which their interests Washington as a way to consolidate profitable arms and energy deals. overlap, including Ukraine, the South its own regional geopolitical assets China Sea and the Middle East. but also as a mutually beneficial deal Vitaly Naumkin Over the last several years, America’s since it will help the new American Syria will remain a central issue relations with China and Russia president to end the conflict and for Russia’s policy in the region have worsened as China-Russia commit foreign policy resources and fighting terrorism its key relations have improved. In the elsewhere. Enlisting support on priority. Moscow will intensify Middle East, this has expressed Syria from at least two other regional efforts to cooperate with the new itself in intensified competition for stakeholders will also be Russia’s US administration in this fight. influence between Washington and objective. Other Russian priorities Special attention will be paid Moscow surrounding the civil war will include strengthening ties with to promoting inter-Syrian talks in Syria. Trump has begun to change Iran and finding ways to work with leading to transition. Relations with the dynamics in US-Russia and Turkey in the region. 6 Syria

Asaad Hanna As the operations aimed to combat as well as the towns of al-Hawl 2017 will be no better than previous IS continue, the political process and Shaddadi in Hasakah’s years for Syria. The balance of will remain intermittent, constantly countryside. However, IS members international powers has not and being suspended and resumed in are still deployed in Aleppo’s eastern will not change even after Trump coordination with the international countryside, in the cities of Raqqa and comes to power in the United coalition. IS’ presence will shrink to Deir ez-Zor and the Palmyra desert. States. Putin will exploit his just the cities of Raqqa and Deir ez- Snatching these areas from under personal relationship with Trump Zor. IS control requires time and several to get concessions. However, the US Kamal Sheikho local and international alliances. Congress and other decision-makers Meanwhile, the stories told by will work to bring about balance Life will return to areas liberated survivors who were able to escape between the parties to the conflict. from extremists. IS has lost many this extremist group indicate that The may lose areas it previously controlled in Syria it will take years for life to return to some of its areas in urban centers, after its members were expelled from normal in areas previously controlled but it will gain more ground in rural Kobani in Aleppo’s countryside and by IS and for residents to feel safe areas and win over IS in the north. Tell Abyad in Raqqa’s countryside again. and Development Party (AKP) political saga while having profound popular is in trouble. The trouble’s effects on the political balances and Turkey size will determine the AKP’s future. climate of the country. Mustafa Akyol Ali Bayramoglu Mahmut Bozarslan For liberals, 2017 will probably be With the parliamentary voting 2017 will not be good to the another depressing year, with no expected in the first months of southeastern Turkey and the Kurds. happy turn of events in sight. The key 2017 and a referendum shortly The Kurdish problem will be one political controversy will be whether thereafter, if there are 330 yes votes, of the most important items on the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will the constitutional amendment Turkish agenda. A peaceful solution establish his presidential system with process will be the most important to the Kurdish problem is not likely a new constitution. This is uncertain If he loses the referendum, it in the first half of the year. The but quite possible. If it happens, it will will be Erdogan’s first major government and others are talking be tantamount to a grand political political defeat. about starting a new process with revolution that will leave Erdogan’s important people in the region. supporters euphoric while making development of the year. Turkish There may be a study done, but it will his opponents even more pessimistic, society will decide not only whether produce no results. The government further deepening Turkey’s already to accept an executive presidential does not intend to launch a new extreme polarization. A key issue is system, but also whether we will process with the Kurdistan Workers the length of the post-coup state of seek a new order or continue with Party (PKK) and pro-PKK parties. emergency. If the government keeps the patriarchal political structure. Operations against Kurdish political extending it indefinitely, unchecked If the presidential system is parties and people will continue executive power will become the new adopted, the president will in 2017. The PKK will not be able normal. The war with the Kurdish dominate the legislative, to increase military actions in the separatists will likely continue, executive and judicial powers. new year. There may be car bombs making hawkishness the national If he loses the referendum, it will be or suicide attacks in cities. There is mood. The state of the economy is a Erdogan’s first major political defeat. a possibility that IS, which is stuck, major puzzle. The economic success Such an eventuality will mark the may also expand its operations into story that has kept the ruling Justice beginning of a decline in Erdogan’s Turkey. 7 Turkey (continued) Cengiz Candar Metin Gurcan Semih Idiz A year ago, nobody believed the Trump is likely to become the most Domestically, Turkey’s focus will next US president would be Trump. unusual US president ever. Will he be on the transition to an executive Forecasting has to take into seek to bring a Pax Americana to the presidency and its fallout. The struggle consideration that the strongest wider region or just seek to manage with Gulenists and the PKK will nation in the world will be led the existing chaos? Will he aim to continue, and the economy will loom by a neo-isolationist who is busy increase ambiguity in the region large in the news. Externally Ankara forming the most conservative by pumping in more uncertainty will adjust to the Trump presidency American administration in or attempt to diffuse it? Will he although the Gulen and PKK issues history. For international politics, try to win the support of Russia will continue to cause problems with Trump is a bull in a china shop. in the global fight against violent the US and Europe. Syria and Iraq The US-Russia-China relationship Salafist networks or just exploit the will continue to be Ankara’s main will shape the world in 2017. This rhetoric of and the fight against IS, regional headaches while it works is the only certainty in an uncertain to diminish Russia’s military capacity to deepen ties with Russia and future. and economic power in Syria? Trump maintain a delicate balance with Iran. Fehim Tastekin will be a test for the US federal Relations with Israel will continue to Uncertainties over Turkey’s institutions’ tenacity and resiliency. develop silently, but ties with Egypt foreign policy will continue. Pinar Tremblay will remain tenuous. Developments in Syria and Iraq The economy and terrorism will be Amberin Zaman will put Ankara in a difficult the most significant problems to Turkey is heading into uncharted situation. When Moscow and linger into 2017. Turkey’s economy waters as Erdogan continues with Damascus extend operations north could fall into recession, particularly plans to ditch the parliamentary to areas like Idlib, it may increase after the April referendum. system and gather more power. With tension along the Turkish border. Erdogan’s paranoia will deepen as the support of nationalist allies, There is a serious risk of clashes his government equates opposition he will likely succeed. Erdogan’s with the Kurds if Operation with terror. Ankara is investing blend of aggressive nationalism and Euphrates Shield heads to Manbij heavily in prisons and arms, so Islamic conservatism is moving the and cantons of Rojava. And unless further arbitrary arrests and fighting country away from its once secular, there is a new chapter for peace in the southeast and Syria are likely. pro-Western path. Pressure on the with domestic Kurds, enmity Educated upper-class Turks are Kurds will increase in Turkey and toward Syria’s Kurds will remain. more likely than ever to go abroad. in Syria as Turkey tries to contain Enacting an amendment giving Turkification policies for Syrians and Kurdish nationalist aspirations the president powers over all state Kurds are likely to have consequences. through military means. Kurdish institutions will need support from Can Turkey continue to see itself as militants may continue to respond nationalists and right-wingers. the peacemaker of Islamists? Turkey with bomb attacks in urban areas Ankara will not return to the may have to choose between Saudi calculated to force Turkey back to negotiation table with the Kurds. Arabia and Iran. the negotiating table.

The US intelligence assessment that United States Russia hacked the US election to harm Hillary Clinton’s candidacy will Julian Pecquet could trigger another Palestinian mar Trump’s legitimacy as he takes US lawmakers will only add to the uprising. After the trauma of the office. Investigations into Russia’s pressure as Middle East tensions , both branches of role as well as Trump’s reluctance reach new highs in 2017. With government seem keen to return to divest from his business empire Obama out of office, Congress will the United States to its alliance are likely to be continuing sources have free rein to punish Iranian of convenience with the region’s of tension and national division. belligerence with new sanctions, authoritarian regimes, robbing I predict Trump will not formally with unknown repercussions for the political Islamist movements of withdraw the United States from nuclear deal. Lawmakers also seem any chance to demonstrate their the Iran nuclear deal in his first year, intent on punishing anti-Israel commitment to democracy. if ever. He will try to come to an animus real and perceived, even as Laura Rozen accord with Russia on countering the incoming Trump administration Making predictions a month IS and reduce US support for the has shown no inclination to try to after the US presidential election Syrian rebels. rein in Israeli settlement growth that is humbling. Uncertainty looms. 8 About Al-Monitor

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