DOCSLIB.ORG

Forecast 2017: Our Writers’ Predictions for the New Year Contents

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Forecast 2017: Our Writers’ Predictions for the New Year Contents Forecast 2017: Our Writers’ Predictions for the New Year Contents Egypt | 2 Lebanon | 5 Ayah Aman Haytham Mouzahem Shahira Amin North Africa | 5 Walaa Hussein Sarah Souli Gulf | 2 Giorgio Cafiero Palestine | 6 Ibrahim al-Hatlani Asmaa al-Ghoul Amal Nasser Daoud Kuttab Bruce Riedel Russia | 6 Yury Barmin Iran | 3 Vitaly Naumkin Maysam Bizaer Paul Saunders Rohollah Faghihi Maxim A. Suchkov Ali Hashem Saeid Jafari Syria | 7 Alireza Ramezani Asaad Hanna Mohammad Ali Shabani Kamal Sheikho Iraq | 4 Turkey | 7-8 Ali Mamouri Mustafa Akyol Mustafa Saadoun Ali Bayramoglu Saad Salloum Mahmut Bozarslan Cengiz Candar Israel | 4-5 Metin Gurcan Ben Caspit Semih Idiz Akiva Eldar Fehim Tastekin Shlomi Eldar Pinar Tremblay Mazal Mualem Amberin Zaman Uri Savir US | 8 Jordan | 5 Julian Pecquet Osama al-Sharif Laura Rozen Credits Cover: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images Page 3: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Page 4: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images Page 6: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images Page 7: Reuters/Bassam Khabieh Designed by Aaron Schaffer. © 2016 Al-Monitor 1 on the issue of reconciliation with the Walaa Hussein Brotherhood. Sisi will nonetheless Egypt release small groups of detained Cairo hopes for many things in 2017, young men. Security problems are including an end to the economic Ayah Aman expected to continue in Sinai. crisis, control of the budget deficit, Shahira Amin stability of the local currency after In 2017, President Abdel Fattah the flotation of the pound, quelling al-Sisi will be heading Egypt’s I predict that in the year 2017, terrorism in Sinai and reaching a political administration for the third Egypt will see a surge in Islamist solution to the Renaissance Dam consecutive year, after years of political militancy with the insurgency in crisis. The tourism sector will be and economic turmoil that followed northern Sinai spilling into other slightly revived, while the issue of the the January 2011 revolution and the parts of the country. These attacks Tiran and Sanafir islands will continue ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood will target civilians — especially to cloud Egyptian-Saudi relations. regime in 2013. On the economic Coptic Christians — with the aim of Cairo will hold on to the stick- front, there will not be any radical enflaming sectarian divisions of the and-carrot approach in its relations reforms, but the situation could be kind seen in Iraq and Syria. Egypt’s between the United States and subject to further complications in already hard-hit tourism industry Russia. Sisi’s opponents in the maintaining austerity policies, while will be dealt a severe blow and the upcoming elections will have a strong foreign investment could be limited ailing economy will decline further. presence on the political scene. to short-term investments. However, I also predict the government will There will also be major propaganda prices will continue to rise and the intensify its security crackdown promoting Sisi’s land-distribution quantities of medicine and basic on dissent. I expect tensions with project, under which 1.5 million acres goods will still be limited, which will Ethiopia over the building of the of land will be granted for cultivation prompt large numbers of citizens to dam, and Egypt may resort to or residential units to citizens. Social take to the streets and protest the military force as a muscle-flexing media will play a major role in crisis harsh living conditions. Meanwhile, attempt to secure its share of the Nile management between Egyptian 2017 will not see any developments waters. society and the state. Ibrahim al-Hatlani retaliation against the Houthis, but Gulf Saudi King Salman will likely this is unlikely as the humanitarian be the last son of founding King situation is expected to worsen Abdul-Aziz Al Saud to govern the with increasing prospects of hunger Giorgio Cafiero kingdom. The domestic political becoming a full-scale catastrophe as To fend off external threats, UAE situation in Saudi Arabia is stable long as the humanitarian response officials in Abu Dhabi will continue and under control. However, this plan remains partially funded. The working closely with Washington stability, without a constitutional war will continue due to the lack of while seeking to enhance security mechanism to transfer power willingness of the warring factions partnerships with Eastern powers. and ensure the citizens’ right to — especially the domestic ones — By assessing Russia’s return to the participation and political oversight, to end it. Middle East and sharing Moscow’s will be compromised if the king dies. Bruce Riedel ...the UAE, Egypt and Jordan Although Mohammed bin Nayef ’s Saudi Arabia will be on the will enhance counter-terrorism presence guarantees his cousin bin defensive in the Gulf and with cooperation with Moscow... Salman’s staying in the medium America in 2017. Bogged down in term crown prince chain, he cannot Yemen and with Iran and Russia concerns about the rise of extremist protect him from the repercussions of resurgent in Syria, the kingdom will forces in the region, the UAE, Egypt rising complaints about the draining struggle to keep up with its Iranian and Jordan will enhance counter- economic decisions targeting rival, including in OPEC. Low oil terrorism cooperation with Moscow citizens with limited income. to further combat militant Sunni Amal Nasser ...the kingdom will struggle to fundamentalists in the Levant and keep up with its Iranian rival, The conflict in Yemen is unlikely to including in OPEC. Maghreb. The UAE has established end. A Saudi exit is only possible itself as Russia’s closest GCC ally and The war will continue due to the prices will impose some unpopular built a relationship with Moscow that lack of willingness of the warring economies at home. In the United has great potential to mature, despite factions — especially the States the Saudis will face 9/11 unease in Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, domestic ones — to end it. lawsuits and growing skepticism. Kuwait and Oman will follow the If the king’s health falters, the UAE’s lead in terms of cooperating if a deal is reached between local succession issue will become with Russia to counter transnational warring parties. Both the Saudis dominant. All eyes will be on the security threats facing the Persian and the government of President king’s son, Muhammad bin Salman, Gulf littoral states. Hadi are counting on popular and whether his judgment is sound. 2 Iran Maysam Bizaer Rohollah Faghihi Ali Hashem If re-elected in the May 2017 President Hassan Rouhani, who is The election of Trump as US presidential election, Hassan the only chance for the Reformists’ president will probably shape Rouhani’s main challenges will be to survival, will fight for a second the course of regional crises, but deal with Donald Trump as the US term against conservatives who are won’t bring an end to the tragedies president, and to pursue his economic still divided and striving to reach a in the region. The deal on Iran’s policies to tackle unemployment coalition around a single candidate. nuclear program will probably and materialize economic growth. Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher survive for this year, yet any serious While Trump’s stated plans — if Ghalibaf is one of the possible failures will be exploited by the implemented — are expected to candidates, but his reputation has conservatives in the next presidential affect Rouhani’s economic goals, been damaged by a recent corruption elections in Iran in May 2017. facts on the ground indicate that scandal. Moreover, the fate of the In Syria, backers of the armed the interest of European and Asian nuclear deal might be determined opposition are likely to resume their businesses in entering the Iranian in the coming year as Trump takes support with a new strategy. Allies market will increase in 2017 at a US presidential office. His decision of Assad are expected to invest faster pace. With expected economic on whether to destroy the deal more effort into supporting him growth of over 5%, Iran could further will surely affect the outcome of but avoid paying a political price for strengthen its position as a key Iran’s presidential election. Trump’s negotiations. regional power. acquiescence to hawks in Washington Mohammad Ali Shabani Saeid Jafari may be to moderates’ and Reformists’ loss. Iran will continue promoting A prediction last year that Trump Alireza Ramezani multilateral talks on Syria with the would be the winner of the US inclusion of Saudi Arabia while presidential election and that the UK President Hassan Rouhani will face suspecting that Russia and the United would exit the EU would have been a serious challenge in getting re- US sanctions over alleged support for doubted. Thus, one must be more elected in 2017. He will be under terrorism and human rights violations cautious when it comes to predicting pressure by ultraconservatives at won’t break the nuclear deal... 2017. The likely trends are that home over a rise of anti-Iranian conflicts in the region will continue sentiment in the US Congress and States may go over its head. As in and the Islamic State will grow the White House. On the other Syria, a large part of Iranian policy stronger as its branches persist in their hand, he will have to persuade in Iraq after seizing Mosul will be underground activities. Erdogan’s the Iranian public to vote for his to help contain conflict between the authoritarianism will erode Turkey’s economic reforms to be implemented Kurds and the central government. democracy and its hostility toward during his second term. Despite all US sanctions over alleged support for Europe and friendship with the East pressure, he will win the election, as terrorism and human rights violations will be emboldened.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Social Media: Instigating Factor Or Appropriated Tool?
    Social media: Instigating factor or appropriated tool? Assessing the level of agency ascribed to the use of social media for the organization and coordination of the 25th January Revolution in Egypt Master thesis Author: Ardan Kockelkoren Student number: S4159519 University: Radboud University Nijmegen Date: 27-06-2013 Supervisors dr. H.W. Bomert and dr. G.M. Millar 1 Abstract This research addresses the perceived importance of the use of social media for the organization of the 25th of January, 2011, revolution in Egypt. Individual face-to-face semi-structured interviews and face-to-face collected written surveys were the main research methods used to acquire the research data. This research shows that there is a relationship between the use of social media and the way in which the revolution has unfolded in Egypt. Social media is perceived to have made the revolutionary process unfold in a faster pace and the initial organization and coordination trough the social media platforms have made the revolution a leaderless revolution. Social media played a significant role but it should not be seen as an instigating factor, however. The role that the social media platforms played, must be seen in a wider framework of interdependent processes and factors that are also perceived as important to the unfolding of the revolutionary process by the Egyptian people. Significant differences have been found between different population groups in how important they perceive the use of social media for the organization of the revolution. Egyptians with an university degree, who have an internet connection at home and who have a Facebook account, find the use of social media significantly more important for the organization of the revolution in Egypt than others.
    [Show full text]
  • In May 2011, Freedom House Issued a Press Release Announcing the Findings of a Survey Recording the State of Media Freedom Worldwide
    Media in North Africa: the Case of Egypt 10 Lourdes Pullicino In May 2011, Freedom House issued a press release announcing the findings of a survey recording the state of media freedom worldwide. It reported that the number of people worldwide with access to free and independent media had declined to its lowest level in over a decade.1 The survey recorded a substantial deterioration in the Middle East and North Africa region. In this region, Egypt suffered the greatest set-back, slipping into the Not Free category in 2010 as a result of a severe crackdown preceding the November 2010 parliamentary elections. In Tunisia, traditional media were also censored and tightly controlled by government while internet restriction increased extensively in 2009 and 2010 as Tunisians sought to use it as an alternative field for public debate.2 Furthermore Libya was included in the report as one of the world’s worst ten countries where independent media are considered either non-existent or barely able to operate and where dissent is crushed through imprisonment, torture and other forms of repression.3 The United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Arab Knowledge Report published in 2009 corroborates these findings and view the prospects of a dynamic, free space for freedom of thought and expression in Arab states as particularly dismal. 1 Freedom House, (2011): World Freedom Report, Press Release dated May 2, 2011. The report assessed 196 countries and territories during 2010 and found that only one in six people live in countries with a press that is designated Free. The Freedom of the Press index assesses the degree of print, broadcast and internet freedom in every country, analyzing the events and developments of each calendar year.
    [Show full text]
  • In 1984 William Beeman Published a Brief but Fascinating Essay on The
    Egypt's Media Ecology in a Time of Revolution Mark Allen Peterson Miami University Abstract: In 1984 William Beeman published a brief but useful essay on the media ecology of Iran before, during and after the revolution. After briefly discussing the relationship between interpersonal gossip ("the grapevine"), and state television and radio, he discusses the dramatic changes in the news media as the revolution progressed, only to settle back into its original role as a voice for the regime—albeit a new regime. The Egyptian uprising had new elements absent in the Iranian revolution, most notably social media and satellite television. Social media does not replace either "the grapevine" of networks of face-to- face interaction nor the monodirectional power of television (which was, in fact, somewhat less unitary than 1970s Iran because of satellite programming). Rather, it offers a way to extend the "grapevine" networks to link otherwise geographically separated individuals into an entirely new public sphere, on the one hand, and to appropriate, supplement, comment on and reframe other media on the other. The revolutionary media ecology of Egypt—in particular the ways various media index, image and influence one another—suggests that (unlike Iran) whatever the ultimate political outcome of the uprisings, the mediascape of Egypt after the revolution will be significantly different than it was before January 25. At times newly introduced mass media have produced revolutionary effects in the societal management of time and energy as they forged new spaces for themselves. Thus media are cultural forces as well as cultural objects. In operation, they produce specific cultural effects that cannot be easily predicted (Beeman 1984: 147).
    [Show full text]
  • Islamist Reactions to the Biden Presidency in the Middle East
    ISSUE BRIEF 04.13.21 Islamist Reactions to the Biden Presidency in the Middle East A.Kadir Yildirim, Ph.D., Fellow for the Middle East For Islamists, the Trump administration ISLAMIST GROUPS’ MESSAGING embodied the worst of American policy toward Islam, Muslims, and Muslim- ON BIDEN majority countries. The Muslim ban, The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has been express support for Israeli policies in among the most enthusiastic about the the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the Biden administration. Ibrahim Munir, the embrace of Islamophobic discourse leave deputy supreme guide of the Brotherhood, little doubt that Muslims in general and welcomed the change in U.S. leadership Islamists in particular were discontented and called on the United States to “return with the Trump presidency. to the values of democracy and respect the How have Islamists—as the relentless will of nations.”1 self-proclaimed defenders of Islam and The Brotherhood’s interest in Biden is Muslims—reacted to the Biden presidency? firmly rooted in the group’s desire to see a Do Islamists’ ideological leanings dictate change in the Egyptian political landscape. their response to Biden in the form of a In particular, the Brotherhood hopes for warm welcome, or do their tangible and This is familiar terrain the Biden administration to gain greater for the Brotherhood. political interests shape their reactions? awareness of the ongoing repressive Statements by Islamist organizations or environment in Egypt and to pressure The group has always their leadership reveal that Islamists around Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to claimed to speak on the Middle East filter Biden’s electoral victory change his policy toward the Brotherhood behalf of the people through their organizational self-interests.
    [Show full text]
  • Framing of Political Forces in Liberal, Islamist and Government Newspapers in Egypt: a Content Analysis
    American University in Cairo AUC Knowledge Fountain Theses and Dissertations 6-1-2012 Framing of political forces in liberal, islamist and government newspapers in Egypt: A content analysis Noha El-Nahass Follow this and additional works at: https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds Recommended Citation APA Citation El-Nahass, N. (2012).Framing of political forces in liberal, islamist and government newspapers in Egypt: A content analysis [Master’s thesis, the American University in Cairo]. AUC Knowledge Fountain. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/296 MLA Citation El-Nahass, Noha. Framing of political forces in liberal, islamist and government newspapers in Egypt: A content analysis. 2012. American University in Cairo, Master's thesis. AUC Knowledge Fountain. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/296 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by AUC Knowledge Fountain. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AUC Knowledge Fountain. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The American University in Cairo School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Framing of Political Forces in Liberal, Islamist and government newspapers in Egypt: A content analysis A Thesis Submitted to Journalism & Mass Communication department In partial fulfillment of the requirements for The degree of Master of Arts By Noha El-Nahass Under the supervision of Dr. Naila Hamdy Spring 2016 1 Dedication I dedicate this thesis to the journalists who lost their lives while covering the political turbulences in Egypt, may their sacrifices enlighten the road and give the strength to their colleagues to continue reflecting the truth and nothing but the truth.
    [Show full text]
  • Égypte/Monde Arabe, 13 | 2015, « Nouvelles Luttes Autour Du Genre En Egypte Depuis 2011 » [En Ligne], Mis En Ligne Le 10 Novembre 2017, Consulté Le 24 Septembre 2020
    Égypte/Monde arabe 13 | 2015 Nouvelles luttes autour du genre en Egypte depuis 2011 New gender-related Struggles in Egypt since 2011 Leslie Piquemal (dir.) Édition électronique URL : http://journals.openedition.org/ema/3492 DOI : 10.4000/ema.3492 ISSN : 2090-7273 Éditeur CEDEJ - Centre d’études et de documentation économiques juridiques et sociales Édition imprimée Date de publication : 10 novembre 2015 ISBN : 9782905838865 ISSN : 1110-5097 Référence électronique Leslie Piquemal (dir.), Égypte/Monde arabe, 13 | 2015, « Nouvelles luttes autour du genre en Egypte depuis 2011 » [En ligne], mis en ligne le 10 novembre 2017, consulté le 24 septembre 2020. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/ema/3492 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/ema.3492 Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 24 septembre 2020. © Tous droits réservés 1 Depuis le soulèvement de 2011 en Égypte, les problématiques de genre ont émergé sous différentes formes dans le cadre des mouvements protestataires – révolutionnaires, réactionnaires – et plus largement, dans celui des transformations sociales se produisant autour et entre ces vagues de mobilisation. Alors que les relations entre citoyens et autorités étatiques ont été contestées, modifiées, puis repoussées dans une direction réactionnaire, comment les relations de genre ont-elles été contestées depuis 2011 ? Quels nouveaux imaginaires, quels nouveaux rôles et identités ont été revendiqués ? Quelles mobilisations se sont construites face à l’essor saisissant des violences sexistes dans l’espace public ? Quatre ans après le début de la période révolutionnaire, ce numéro d’Égypte/Monde arabe explore les nouvelles luttes liées au genre en Égypte au prisme de la sociologie, l’anthropologie et la science politique.
    [Show full text]
  • MESA ANNUAL MEETING 2011 December 1‐4 Washington Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington DC
    MESA ANNUAL MEETING 2011 December 1‐4 Washington Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington DC The following listing of CMES and Harvard Affiliated speakers was compiled from the MESA Program that was posted in October. Please note that there may have been updates since this time that we were unable to include. For the most current information on times and locations of these panels, visit: http://www.mesa.arizona.edu/pdf/11_preliminary_program.pdf Pages 1‐2 Harvard Affiliate Listing with session times Pages 3‐46 MESA Program with Harvard Affiliate names highlighted Harvard Affiliate listing with day(s)/time(s) of MESA sessions Harvard Faculty: . Doherty, Gareth (Lecturer in Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning / Design) – Fri, 2‐4 . Frye, Richard N. (Aga Khan Professor of Iranian, Emeritus) – Sat, 5‐7 . Kafadar, Cemal (Vehbi Koç Professor of Turkish Studies) – Fri, 8:30‐10:30 . Miller, Susan Gilson (CMES Associate) – Sat, 11‐1; Sat, 5‐7 . Mottahedeh, Roy (Gurney Professor of History) – Fri, 8:30‐10:30 . Najmabadi, Afsaneh (Professor of Women's Studies; Professor of History) – Sun, 11‐1 . Owen, E. Roger (A.J. Meyer Professor of Middle Eastern History) – Thurs, 5‐7; Fri, 4:30‐6:30 . Zeghal, Malika (Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Professor in Contemporary Islamic Thought & Life) – Sat, 11‐1 Harvard Students: . Balbale, Abigail Krasner (G7 History/MES) – Sat, 2:30‐4:30 . Egemen, Melih (History) – Sat, 11‐1 . Gerbakher, Ilona (G1 Divinity) – Sat, 2:30‐4:30 . Gordon, Jennifer (G4 History/MES) – Fri, 8:30‐10:30 . Kibler, Bethany (G1 Anthropology/MES) – Sun, 1:30‐3:30 . Li, Darryl (G8 Anthropology/MES) – Fri, 2‐4 .
    [Show full text]
  • Rethinking Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIS: Lessons from Sinai Sahar F
    Nebraska Law Review Volume 95 | Issue 2 Article 2 2016 Rethinking Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIS: Lessons from Sinai Sahar F. Aziz Texas A&M University School of Law, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/nlr Recommended Citation Sahar F. Aziz, Rethinking Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIS: Lessons from Sinai, 95 Neb. L. Rev. 307 (2016) Available at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/nlr/vol95/iss2/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law, College of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Nebraska Law Review by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Sahar F. Aziz* Rethinking Counterterrorism in the Age of ISIS: Lessons from Sinai TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction .......................................... 308 II. Economic Deprivation and Political Marginalization in the Sinai ............................................. 318 A. The Sinai’s Strategic Significance .................. 321 B. Neglect and Criminalization of the Bedouin ........ 324 III. Bringing the Sinai into the National Fold ............. 328 A. Long-Term Investment in Development ............ 330 B. De-Securitizing Development in Sinai .............. 335 C. Political Inclusion and Integrating Bedouin into Security Services .................................. 338 IV. Contextualizing Sinai’s Transition into a Failing Sub- State ................................................. 342 A. Festering Grievances and Militants in Sinai Before the 2011 Uprising ................................. 344 B. 2011 Uprisings Create a Security and Political Vacuum ........................................... 350 C. Violence in Sinai Reaches New Heights after Morsi is Deposed ........................................ 357 V. Conclusion ............................................ 363 © Copyright held by the NEBRASKA LAW REVIEW * Professor, Texas A&M School of Law and nonresident fellow at Brookings Doha Center.
    [Show full text]
  • A Critical Analysis on Media Coverage of the Egyptian Revolution
    Örebro University School of Humanities, Education and Social Sciences 2010‐2012 A CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION: THE CASE OF AL-AHRAM, AL-MASRY AL-YOUM, THE TELEGRAPH AND THE WASHINGTON POST MA Thesis Global Journalism Supervisor: Prof. Stig‐Arne Nohrstedt Author: Ahmed Magdy Youssef Word of Gratitude First of all, I would like to thank my university mentor, Stig-arne Nohrsted, as being the one who helped me in carrying out this thesis. Actually, I found succour in him during the thesis project. Not surbrisingly, he was replying back to my questions all the time, though, sometimes, he was very busy. Also, I would like to thank my loving wife Hend and my “naughty” son Hamza, whose boundless love keeps pushing me forward all the time. ii ABSTRACT The Egyptian protest movement which brought down the Egyptian regime headed by President Hosni Mubarak, not only gripped the minds and hearts of the Egyptians, but it captured the interest of the national and international media as well. The research aims at answering questions related to the kind of frames employed in four newspapers; namely, Al-Ahram, Al-Masry Al-Youm, The Telegraph and The Washington Post, in light of the protest paradigm, in addition to the way the same four newspapers tried to explore and identify the characteristics of war and peace journalism, according to Galtung’s dichotomous model, not to mention to trace how the four newspapers in hand depicted the protesters. To achieve this, two methods were applied in this study; notably, frame analysis, and critical discourse analysis.
    [Show full text]
  • Egypt Security Forces
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2013-12 Allegiance: Egypt security forces Read, Christopher S. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/38998 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ALLEGIANCE: EGYPT SECURITY FORCES by Christopher S. Read December 2013 Thesis Advisor: Anne Marie Baylouny Second Reader: Erik Dahl Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2013 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ALLEGIANCE: EGYPT SECURITY FORCES 6. AUTHOR(S) Christopher S. Read 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943–5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10.
    [Show full text]
  • Anatomy of a Revolution: the 2011 Egyptian Uprising
    Anatomy of a Revolution: the 2011 Egyptian Uprising Mustafa Bal Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy under the Executive Committee of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2014 © 2014 Mustafa Bal All rights reserved ABSTRACT Anatomy of a Revolution: the 2011 Egyptian Uprising Mustafa Bal This dissertation offers a diachronic analysis of the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. This study holds that, regardless of its sui generis nature, the January 2011 Egyptian Revolution became possible as a combined result of a sociopolitical transformation in the Egyptian society in roughly the last decade of Mubarak’s rule and several contingent events that took place right before and during the January 25 events. Sociopolitical transformations in Egyptian society were conceptualized along two dimensions: 1) Gradual changes in Egyptian sociopolitical life that occurred particularly on the last decade of Mubarak regime, and 2) Paradigmatic changes that took place during the 18 days of protests. This ethnographic account of the 2011 Egyptian Revolution –with involved political processes and mechanisms; and human agency that transformed and was transformed by those mechanisms and processes– aspires to contribute to our understanding of 2011 Egyptian Revolution, and possibly revolutions in general, and the ensuing political crises that arise in transition periods after major political transformations. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST of MAPS, TABLES, and FIGURES .......................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Egypt 2014 National Integrity System Assessment
    EGYPT 2014 NATIONAL INTEGRITY SYSTEM ASSESSMENT TI_Cover Egypt.indd 1 12/12/14 17:49 Transparency International is a global movement with one vision: a world in which government, business, civil society and the daily lives of people are free of corruption. Through more than 100 chapters worldwide and an international secretariat in Berlin, we are leading the fight against corruption to turn this vision into reality. www.transparency.org ISBN: 978-3-943497-73-1 © 2014 Transparency International. All rights reserved. Cover photo: iStockphoto/Baloncici Every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this report. All information was believed to be correct as of February 2014. Nevertheless, Transparency International cannot accept responsibility for the consequences of its use for other purposes or in other contexts. This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Transparency International and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. TI_Cover Egypt.indd 2 12/12/14 17:49 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introductory information 2 Executive summary 3 National Integrity System Assessment 23 Legislature 25 Executive 37 Judiciary 53 Public sector 71 Law enforcement agencies 87 Electoral management body 105 Ombudsperson 121 Supreme audit institution 137 Anti-corruption agency 153 Political parties 169 Media 189 Civil society 211 Business 227 Conclusions and recommendations 249 Annexes 259 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Transparency International would like to thank all those involved in the assessment for the time and dedication they brought to ensuring a high quality assessment of the National Integrity System in Egypt, in particular members of the research team, advisory group, interviewees and reviewers.
    [Show full text]