Forecast 2017: Our Writers’ Predictions for the New Year Contents Egypt | 2 Lebanon | 5 Ayah Aman Haytham Mouzahem Shahira Amin North Africa | 5 Walaa Hussein Sarah Souli Gulf | 2 Giorgio Cafiero Palestine | 6 Ibrahim al-Hatlani Asmaa al-Ghoul Amal Nasser Daoud Kuttab Bruce Riedel Russia | 6 Yury Barmin Iran | 3 Vitaly Naumkin Maysam Bizaer Paul Saunders Rohollah Faghihi Maxim A. Suchkov Ali Hashem Saeid Jafari Syria | 7 Alireza Ramezani Asaad Hanna Mohammad Ali Shabani Kamal Sheikho Iraq | 4 Turkey | 7-8 Ali Mamouri Mustafa Akyol Mustafa Saadoun Ali Bayramoglu Saad Salloum Mahmut Bozarslan Cengiz Candar Israel | 4-5 Metin Gurcan Ben Caspit Semih Idiz Akiva Eldar Fehim Tastekin Shlomi Eldar Pinar Tremblay Mazal Mualem Amberin Zaman Uri Savir US | 8 Jordan | 5 Julian Pecquet Osama al-Sharif Laura Rozen Credits Cover: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images Page 3: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Page 4: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images Page 6: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images Page 7: Reuters/Bassam Khabieh Designed by Aaron Schaffer. © 2016 Al-Monitor 1 on the issue of reconciliation with the Walaa Hussein Brotherhood. Sisi will nonetheless Egypt release small groups of detained Cairo hopes for many things in 2017, young men. Security problems are including an end to the economic Ayah Aman expected to continue in Sinai. crisis, control of the budget deficit, Shahira Amin stability of the local currency after In 2017, President Abdel Fattah the flotation of the pound, quelling al-Sisi will be heading Egypt’s I predict that in the year 2017, terrorism in Sinai and reaching a political administration for the third Egypt will see a surge in Islamist solution to the Renaissance Dam consecutive year, after years of political militancy with the insurgency in crisis. The tourism sector will be and economic turmoil that followed northern Sinai spilling into other slightly revived, while the issue of the the January 2011 revolution and the parts of the country. These attacks Tiran and Sanafir islands will continue ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood will target civilians — especially to cloud Egyptian-Saudi relations. regime in 2013. On the economic Coptic Christians — with the aim of Cairo will hold on to the stick- front, there will not be any radical enflaming sectarian divisions of the and-carrot approach in its relations reforms, but the situation could be kind seen in Iraq and Syria. Egypt’s between the United States and subject to further complications in already hard-hit tourism industry Russia. Sisi’s opponents in the maintaining austerity policies, while will be dealt a severe blow and the upcoming elections will have a strong foreign investment could be limited ailing economy will decline further. presence on the political scene. to short-term investments. However, I also predict the government will There will also be major propaganda prices will continue to rise and the intensify its security crackdown promoting Sisi’s land-distribution quantities of medicine and basic on dissent. I expect tensions with project, under which 1.5 million acres goods will still be limited, which will Ethiopia over the building of the of land will be granted for cultivation prompt large numbers of citizens to dam, and Egypt may resort to or residential units to citizens. Social take to the streets and protest the military force as a muscle-flexing media will play a major role in crisis harsh living conditions. Meanwhile, attempt to secure its share of the Nile management between Egyptian 2017 will not see any developments waters. society and the state. Ibrahim al-Hatlani retaliation against the Houthis, but Gulf Saudi King Salman will likely this is unlikely as the humanitarian be the last son of founding King situation is expected to worsen Abdul-Aziz Al Saud to govern the with increasing prospects of hunger Giorgio Cafiero kingdom. The domestic political becoming a full-scale catastrophe as To fend off external threats, UAE situation in Saudi Arabia is stable long as the humanitarian response officials in Abu Dhabi will continue and under control. However, this plan remains partially funded. The working closely with Washington stability, without a constitutional war will continue due to the lack of while seeking to enhance security mechanism to transfer power willingness of the warring factions partnerships with Eastern powers. and ensure the citizens’ right to — especially the domestic ones — By assessing Russia’s return to the participation and political oversight, to end it. Middle East and sharing Moscow’s will be compromised if the king dies. Bruce Riedel ...the UAE, Egypt and Jordan Although Mohammed bin Nayef ’s Saudi Arabia will be on the will enhance counter-terrorism presence guarantees his cousin bin defensive in the Gulf and with cooperation with Moscow... Salman’s staying in the medium America in 2017. Bogged down in term crown prince chain, he cannot Yemen and with Iran and Russia concerns about the rise of extremist protect him from the repercussions of resurgent in Syria, the kingdom will forces in the region, the UAE, Egypt rising complaints about the draining struggle to keep up with its Iranian and Jordan will enhance counter- economic decisions targeting rival, including in OPEC. Low oil terrorism cooperation with Moscow citizens with limited income. to further combat militant Sunni Amal Nasser ...the kingdom will struggle to fundamentalists in the Levant and keep up with its Iranian rival, The conflict in Yemen is unlikely to including in OPEC. Maghreb. The UAE has established end. A Saudi exit is only possible itself as Russia’s closest GCC ally and The war will continue due to the prices will impose some unpopular built a relationship with Moscow that lack of willingness of the warring economies at home. In the United has great potential to mature, despite factions — especially the States the Saudis will face 9/11 unease in Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, domestic ones — to end it. lawsuits and growing skepticism. Kuwait and Oman will follow the If the king’s health falters, the UAE’s lead in terms of cooperating if a deal is reached between local succession issue will become with Russia to counter transnational warring parties. Both the Saudis dominant. All eyes will be on the security threats facing the Persian and the government of President king’s son, Muhammad bin Salman, Gulf littoral states. Hadi are counting on popular and whether his judgment is sound. 2 Iran Maysam Bizaer Rohollah Faghihi Ali Hashem If re-elected in the May 2017 President Hassan Rouhani, who is The election of Trump as US presidential election, Hassan the only chance for the Reformists’ president will probably shape Rouhani’s main challenges will be to survival, will fight for a second the course of regional crises, but deal with Donald Trump as the US term against conservatives who are won’t bring an end to the tragedies president, and to pursue his economic still divided and striving to reach a in the region. The deal on Iran’s policies to tackle unemployment coalition around a single candidate. nuclear program will probably and materialize economic growth. Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher survive for this year, yet any serious While Trump’s stated plans — if Ghalibaf is one of the possible failures will be exploited by the implemented — are expected to candidates, but his reputation has conservatives in the next presidential affect Rouhani’s economic goals, been damaged by a recent corruption elections in Iran in May 2017. facts on the ground indicate that scandal. Moreover, the fate of the In Syria, backers of the armed the interest of European and Asian nuclear deal might be determined opposition are likely to resume their businesses in entering the Iranian in the coming year as Trump takes support with a new strategy. Allies market will increase in 2017 at a US presidential office. His decision of Assad are expected to invest faster pace. With expected economic on whether to destroy the deal more effort into supporting him growth of over 5%, Iran could further will surely affect the outcome of but avoid paying a political price for strengthen its position as a key Iran’s presidential election. Trump’s negotiations. regional power. acquiescence to hawks in Washington Mohammad Ali Shabani Saeid Jafari may be to moderates’ and Reformists’ loss. Iran will continue promoting A prediction last year that Trump Alireza Ramezani multilateral talks on Syria with the would be the winner of the US inclusion of Saudi Arabia while presidential election and that the UK President Hassan Rouhani will face suspecting that Russia and the United would exit the EU would have been a serious challenge in getting re- US sanctions over alleged support for doubted. Thus, one must be more elected in 2017. He will be under terrorism and human rights violations cautious when it comes to predicting pressure by ultraconservatives at won’t break the nuclear deal... 2017. The likely trends are that home over a rise of anti-Iranian conflicts in the region will continue sentiment in the US Congress and States may go over its head. As in and the Islamic State will grow the White House. On the other Syria, a large part of Iranian policy stronger as its branches persist in their hand, he will have to persuade in Iraq after seizing Mosul will be underground activities. Erdogan’s the Iranian public to vote for his to help contain conflict between the authoritarianism will erode Turkey’s economic reforms to be implemented Kurds and the central government. democracy and its hostility toward during his second term. Despite all US sanctions over alleged support for Europe and friendship with the East pressure, he will win the election, as terrorism and human rights violations will be emboldened.