On the Relational Power of Small States: a Case Study of Laos

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On the Relational Power of Small States: a Case Study of Laos Citation: Giovannini, Gabriele (2017) The Impact of Multinational Transboundary Infrastructures (MTIs) on the Relational Power of Small States: a case study of Laos. Doctoral thesis, Northumbria University. This version was downloaded from Northumbria Research Link: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/35655/ Northumbria University has developed Northumbria Research Link (NRL) to enable users to access the University’s research output. Copyright © and moral rights for items on NRL are retained by the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. Single copies of full items can be reproduced, displayed or performed, and given to third parties in any format or medium for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided the authors, title and full bibliographic details are given, as well as a hyperlink and/or URL to the original metadata page. The content must not be changed in any way. Full items must not be sold commercially in any format or medium without formal permission of the copyright holder. The full policy is available online: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/policies.html THE IMPACT OF MULTINATIONAL TRANSBOUNDARY INFRASTRUCTURES (MTIs) ON THE RELATIONAL POWER OF SMALL STATES: A CASE STUDY OF LAOS G GIOVANNINI PhD 2017 THE IMPACT OF MULTINATIONAL TRANSBOUNDARY INFRASTRUCTURES (MTIs) ON THE RELATIONAL POWER OF SMALL STATES: A CASE STUDY OF LAOS GABRIELE GIOVANNINI A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of Northumbria at Newcastle Research undertaken in the Faculty of Arts, Design and Social Sciences October 2017 1 ABSTRACT The International Relations (IR) literature has been dominated by studies on great powers, often neglecting the role of small states. Moreover, the accounts on small states have generally overlooked the role of geography. This thesis proposes an analytical framework to observe the role of geography by observing the impact of Multinational Transboundary Infrastructures (MTIs) on the relational power of small states. The framework is then applied to the case study of Laos observing the impact of two selected MTIs – the Xayaburi dam and the Boten-Vientiane high-speed railway – on Laos’s relational power with respect to Vietnam and China. Data has been collected through a set of 48 semi-structured qualitative elite interviews mainly carried out during a period of fieldwork in Laos in 2015. The data generated by the interviews, triangulated with other primary and secondary sources, enabled a process tracing analysis of the two negotiation processes on the selected MTIs. The findings show that the two observed MTIs positively affected the relational power of Laos despite the asymmetry that shapes its bilateral relationships with both Vietnam and China in terms of capabilities. The case study therefore indicates that a central geographic position could reduce asymmetries of power and that relational power manifest a greater explanatory capacity than power-as-capabilities. This thesis contributes to knowledge adding empirical material on the diplomatic negotiation on the Xayaburi dam; on the Boten–Vientiane high-speed railway; on Laos’s international relations with Vietnam and China; and on China’s High-Speed Railway Diplomacy. The thesis contributes also to the theoretical literature by identifying a geographic gap in small states studies. Analytically, the thesis contributes developing the concept of MTIs and an original analytical framework to study relational power. Finally, methodologically the thesis provides new insights on how to gain access to elites in Laos. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE…………………………………………………………………………………...1 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................ 3 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ 9 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................ 11 DECLARATION ........................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER I................................................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION: THE RESEARCH BACKGROUND, APPROACH AND STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................ 14 1.1 The research background, rationale and goals ...................................................... 14 1.1.1 Why Laos? ............................................................................................................... 14 1.1.2 Why look at Laos through the lens of small states and relational power? ...... 17 1.1.3 Why a multinational and transboundary variable (MTIs) to observe Laos’s relational power? .............................................................................................................. 20 1.2 Selection of cases, methodology and approach ..................................................... 28 1.2.1 Selection of cases .................................................................................................... 28 1.2.2 Methodology and approach ................................................................................... 30 1.3 The structure of the thesis ..................................................................................... 33 CHAPTER II ................................................................................................................. 37 SMALL STATES IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS LITERATURE AND THE GEOGRAPHIC GAP ................................................................................ 37 2.1 Introduction: A discipline of power in a world of states ....................................... 37 2.2 How to measure power for hierarchising states? Power-as-capabilities versus relational power ................................................................................................ 39 2.3 What is a small state? The struggle for a definition .............................................. 43 2.3.1 Qualitative and quantitative factors ..................................................................... 43 2.3.2. Small or weak? ....................................................................................................... 45 2.4 What level of analysis for small states? ................................................................ 48 2.4.1 The overlooked role of geography ....................................................................... 50 2.4.2 The role of spaces in Classical Geopolitics, Critical Geopolitics and International Relations .................................................................................................... 51 2.4.3 The paradoxical geographic gap in the International Relations literature on small states.……………………………………………………………………………….54 3 2.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 58 CHAPTER III ............................................................................................................... 60 DEVELOPING AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF MULTINATIONAL TRANSBOUNDARY INFRASTRUCTURES (MTIs) ON THE RELATIONAL POWER OF SMALL STATES .......................... 60 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 60 3.2 The independent variable: multinational transboundary infrastructures (MTIs) .. 62 3.2.1 Defining MTIs ........................................................................................................ 62 3.2.2 Why are MTIs relevant? ........................................................................................ 65 3.2.3 Strategic, political and economic implications of MTIs ................................... 69 3.3 The dependent variable: relational power ............................................................. 72 3.3.1 The rationale behind the framework .................................................................... 72 3.3.2 Making the analytical framework operational .................................................... 74 3.3.3 What is the expected impact of MTIs on power? ............................................... 79 3.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 80 CHAPTER IV ................................................................................................................ 83 METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................ 83 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 83 4.2 Applying process tracing and qualitative elite interviews to the case study ......... 85 4.3 Data collection and analysis .................................................................................. 89 4.4 The semi-structured qualitative
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