Nuclear Industry Value Chain 2018
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December | 2018 A PUBLICATION OF UXC.COM Nuclear Industry Value Chain 1501 MACY DRIVE ROSWELL, GA 30076 PH +1 770 642-7745 FX +1 770 643-2954 – NOTICE – UxC, LLC (“UxC”) shall have title to, ownership of, and all proprietary rights in this Report. Under United States federal copyright law (17 USC 101 et seq.) it is illegal to reproduce this Report by any means without written permission from UxC. The information contained in this Report is obtained from sources that UxC believes to be reliable. UxC makes no war- ranty or representation, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of the information contained in this Report and UxC, to the maximum extent permitted by law, assumes no liability for the use or effects of any of the information or data contained in this Report. It is UxC’s strict policy not to endorse, promote, or recommend any particular securities, currencies, or other financial products or instruments. 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Nuclear Industry Value Chain - Dec 2018 Table of Contents Table of Contents Introduction & Overview ____________________________________________________________________ 14 Purpose of Report ...................................................................................................................................................... 14 Key Questions in the Nuclear Markets Today ............................................................................................................ 15 What’s New in the 2018 Report? ............................................................................................................................... 16 Structure of Report ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 Part I – Nuclear Power in the World Today _____________________________________________________ 19 Brief History of Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................................... 19 Nuclear Power’s Share of Global Energy................................................................................................................... 23 • Energy Demand and Supply ............................................................................................................................ 23 • Electricity Sector Outlook ................................................................................................................................. 24 • Analysis............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Current State of Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................................. 29 Why Nuclear Energy? ................................................................................................................................................ 30 • Challenges to Nuclear Energy ......................................................................................................................... 30 Major Trends in Nuclear Power .................................................................................................................................. 31 • Influence of Governments ................................................................................................................................ 31 • Need for More Electricity.................................................................................................................................. 32 • High Capital Costs ........................................................................................................................................... 32 • Reactor Shutdowns: Electricity Prices and Oversupply ................................................................................... 33 • Life Extensions Instead of New Construction .................................................................................................. 33 Profiles of Leading Nuclear Power Countries ............................................................................................................ 33 • United States ................................................................................................................................................... 34 • France .............................................................................................................................................................. 36 • Japan ............................................................................................................................................................... 38 • Russia .............................................................................................................................................................. 40 • China................................................................................................................................................................ 42 • South Korea ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 • India ................................................................................................................................................................. 44 Nuclear Reactor Technologies ................................................................................................................................... 47 • Basic Reactor Designs..................................................................................................................................... 47 • Evolution of Reactor Technologies .................................................................................................................. 51 • Generation III and III+ Reactors ....................................................................................................................... 52 • Current Reactor Offerings ................................................................................................................................ 53 • UxC Expertise in Reactor Technology Analysis............................................................................................... 55 UxC Forecasts for Nuclear Power.............................................................................................................................. 56 • UxC Base Case Nuclear Power Forecast ........................................................................................................ 57 • Alternative UxC Reactor Forecasts.................................................................................................................. 59 Third Party Forecasts for Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................... 60 • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) .................................................................................................... 60 • U.S. Energy Information Administration ........................................................................................................... 61 • BP Energy Outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 62 Part II – Front-End Market Overview __________________________________________________________ 63 Front-End Market Size Overview ............................................................................................................................... 64 Current and Future Market Trends ............................................................................................................................. 65 • Future Demand Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................. 65 • Accelerating Supply Responses ...................................................................................................................... 65 • Shifting Nature of China’s Approach to Fuel Supply ........................................................................................ 66 • Continued Prominence of Inventories and Secondary Supplies ...................................................................... 66 • Maturing Nature of the Mid-Term Market ......................................................................................................... 66 • Utility Focus on Fuel Cycle Cost Optimization ................................................................................................. 66 1 – Uranium Mining and Milling ______________________________________________________________