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ST Issue 4 Akanshya Shah

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O Strategic Trends

South Asia Series Volume 1 Issue 4, July 2012

Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic

Akanshya

Observer Research Foundation : Political Prospects for the Young Republic

Akanshya Shah

Observer Research Foundation Strategic Trends presents a broad scrutiny of events and actors in the contemporary geo-political context for an informed appraisal of the near future. This series forms an important part of ORF's Net Assessment Project launched in January 2011. The project, in the present edition, is an attempt to study key developments and policy makers, especially in the political and military sphere, in South Asia with a view to map the emerging challenges facing .

About the Author:

Akanshya Shah is an Associate Fellow at ORF. Her research interests include Nepali politics and Nepal's foreign policy, specifically its relations with India and . At ORF, she is currently focussing on Nepal's ongoing peace process and related developments. Akanshya worked in the Nepali media for about a decade and continues to write regularly for the country's mainstream newspapers.

2012 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic

On May 27, 2012, the Constituent Assembly (CA) of Nepal was abruptly dissolved without it delivering on its mandate of framing a new constitution following a complete breakdown of political consensus over some issues of national concern. The most important of these issues involved the restructuring of the State. Since then, amidst chaos and demonstrations, Prime Minister has announced the holding of fresh polls for the CA on November 22 of this year. The question remains: How far can the elections bridge the political and constitutional void that is pushing Nepal towards the edge? This Paper examines Nepal's political stakeholders, their attitudes and orientations, to explore possible trajectories in the nation's future political landscape.

Introduction

n 2008, Nepal became a federal democratic republic, abolishing the then 240-year-old monarchy by the first meeting of the IIConstituent Assembly (CA). Nepal also ceased to be the only Hindu kingdom in the world when the country was declared 'secular' in 2007 by the newly revived House of Representatives. www.orfonline.org 1 ORF Strategic Trends

The 601-member CA was elected in April 2008 and carried the slogan, 'New Nepal'. This meant a complete transformation of the country, especially targeted at socio-economic prosperity of the marginalised and downtrodden sections of society based on the concept of inclusion.

The (Maoist) emerged as the largest political force in the CA polls with 229 seats. The (NC) and the CPN-UML took second and third positions, respectively. A total of 25 parties obtained representation in the CA, with marginalised groups getting a significant proportion of seats: 33 per cent women; 38 per cent Janajati; 33 per cent Madhesi; and eight per cent Dalits. The CA was given the mandate of writing a new Constitution within two years. After four years of its formation and three extensions, however, the Assembly was suddenly dissolved on May 27, 2012 after a breakdown of consensus over the issue of state restructuring.

In reality, the political consensus, which drove the Jana Andolan II (People's Movement II, 2006), broke down immediately after the CA election. Factionalism and divisions within the major political parties emerged soon after the CA poll results came out. One analyst observed that the CA results made the Maoists 'complacent' and the two other major political parties, the NC and the CPN-UML, 'insecure' vis-à-vis the Maoists1 .

As a result, a new Constitution has yet to be drafted. It is still unclear what future structures would be taken by the political system and

2 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic the State and the type of federalism that will be finally adopted. With the dissolution of the CA, a state of confusion persists in Nepal over the next course of action. While the Baburam Bhattarai government has called for fresh polls on November 22, 2012, a consensus has yet to be reached on holding another election to the CA.

The NC and other smaller parties considered the dissolution of the CA as attempt at absolute state capture by the Maoists, whereas the establishment faction of the Maoist party said that the constitution could not be formed due to the “retrograde and status-quoist thinking” of parties like NC and UML. The blame game, needless to say, is at its peak.

Maoist re-emergence to power

In May 2009, the government led by UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Prachanda was toppled following its attempt to sack the then Nepal Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal. A coalition government— comprising all major political parties and barring the Maoists—was then formed and of the CPN-UML was named prime minister. Due to obstruction from the opposition, however, Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned in June 2010. 17 rounds of voting were then conducted by Parliament to elect a new PM and, finally, Jhalanath Khanal of CPN-UML won. However, he too resigned after two months of being in office, due to his incapacity to conclude the peace process and the drafting of a new constitution.

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A Maoist-led government emerged under the leadership of its vice- chairman, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, on August 28, 2011. Bhattarai continues to head an unusual coalition supported by five Madhesi parties, which since 2006 have aligned with the democratic groups led by the Congress. The NC joined the Bhattarai government on May 10, 2012 after the May 4 agreement and for the first time since 2008 a national unity government came into being in order to conclude the Constitution drafting process. Bhattarai's consensus government lasted only 17 days after NC walked out over the issue of ethnic restructuring of the State. Bhattarai's status has since been downgraded to that of caretaker PM.

In all, Nepal has had five prime ministers since the CA elections. Political tensions and consequent power-sharing battles have continued.

Peace Process

At the heart of the crisis in Nepal has been the lack of progress on the peace-building front. In this context, the peace agreement and interim constitution envisioned a six-month timeframe for the completion of the process of integration and rehabilitation of the former Maoist combatants. Such timeframe was not adhered to, however, and even after four years of signing of the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, real progress on the peace process is yet to be achieved. This failure has been mainly due to tensions over power sharing and different positions taken by major political parties on integration2 .

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Even after signing a fresh agreement on November 1, 2011, which fixed the number of combatants to be integrated at 6,500, the integration process could not be concluded mainly due to opposition by the hardliner faction of the UCPN (Maoist). In December 2011, the Bhattarai government concluded the regrouping process of the combatants, wherein they were asked to choose between integration, rehabilitation, and voluntary retirement. Over 7,300 combatants are set to leave their cantonments as part of the settlement package for Maoist fighters. Under this package, they will be given a financial grant between Rs 500,000 and Rs 800,000 in two installments.

The stalled integration process finally received a push in April 2012 when the government decided to send the Nepal Army to take over the camps. This can be seen as a positive development in the peace process. However, only around 3,000 former combatants chose to be integrated as against the number of over 6,000 that was agreed upon in November 2011. The drop in the number can be associated with the low morale among the fighters, who led grim lives in the cantonment for over four years; it is also a result of the division within the United CPN (Maoist). The hardliner faction, led by senior Vice-Chairman Mohan Baidya Kiran, had urged the combatants to drop out of integration and regroup in order to continue 'the struggle for a people's revolt'. Earlier, it was reported that 9,000 combatants wanted integration.

Other contentious issues remain, including rank and file determination and that of age limit. Although the Army has said that www.orfonline.org 5 ORF Strategic Trends the Maoist fighters could be given the rank up to that of Major, or at most of Lt Colonel, some 443 of them want ranks up to Lt Colonel3 . With the dissolution of the CA, the sentiment is growing that the integration process could be further stalled.

Constitution making

Apart from the combatants' settlement issue, the model of governance and federalism continue to remain contentious issues as well. The State Restructuring Commission, by a majority, recommended the creation of 11 provinces, most of them on the basis of ethnicity. A minority report, meanwhile, has recommended the formation of six provinces. In view of major differences over state reconstruction amongst the political parties, the Constitution writing process remains incomplete. Since 2007, internal conflicts within all major parties in Nepal have not allowed any party to come up with firm positions on the Constitution.

Although all other political parties have rejected a one-party imposed constitution, they have not given their own alternatives to the Maoist version of the “Constitution of the People's of Nepal” prepared in May 2010.

Set against this backdrop are some of the emerging trends in Nepali polity that are highlighted in this paper. The Maoist party, which still has hold over much of rural Nepal and also some urban areas, remains deeply divided within despite the peace process. The hardline faction has obstructed almost all party decisions. A major

6 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic split in the party took place in June this year. The hardline faction led by Baidhya formed a new party, the Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist, and declared “revolt” as its stated objective. On the other hand, due to lack of good leadership and a development agenda, both NC and UML are losing their ground.

Most importantly, violence and strikes are on the rise. Although the number of armed outfits has plateaued over the years, the number of violent activities have increased, especially in the border region of . Criminal activities are on the rise and paramilitary organisations of the political parties continue to flourish. In these areas, the State has been unable to punish the perpetrators since the war days and a state of impunity persists. This is reflected by the government's failure to form the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on the Disappeared, both of which have become highly necessary.

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In addition, the ethnic issue can play a destabilising role in the immediate future. There is a strong voice advocating the restructuring of the state along ethnic lines in the new federal structure. This can have serious consequences for Nepal, which comprises more than a hundred ethnic groups.

Nepal is a small, landlocked country with a total area of 147,181 sq km and a population of around 29 million, 80.6 per cent of whom are Hindus. The other religious groups include Buddhist, Muslim and Kirant. The average life expectancy is 60 years and the proportion of people living below the poverty line is 30.1 per cent4 . Major ethnic groups include Chhettri, Brahman-Hill, Magar, Tharu, Tamang, Newar, Muslim, Kami, Yadav and others; the major languages are Nepali, Maithali, Bhojpuri, Tharu (Dagaura/), Tamang, Newar, Magar, and Awadhi. The average literacy rate is 54 per cent.

The country is administered under five development regions: eastern; middle; western; mid-western; and far western. They comprise 14 zones, 75 districts, and 3,913 village development committees (VDCs). A VDC is further divided into wards; the number of each ward is determined on the basis of the district's population (the average being nine wards).

Nepal's economic performance continues to be adversely affected by the political uncertainty. Real GDP growth was 4.6 per cent in the fiscal year 2010, a little higher than the 4.4 per cent in 2009. Sources of growth include agriculture, construction, financial and other services, and consumption fueled by remittances, although the last

8 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic has slowed down quite significantly to 11 per cent in 2010 from over 40 per cent during the two previous years. Official remittances, excluding informal flows from India, remain at about 20 per cent of GDP. When these flows are included, remittances are estimated to be equivalent to 25-30 per cent of GDP5 .

Despite political uncertainties, Nepal maintained a policy of prudent fiscal management during 2010. The rapid expansion of expenditure (20 per cent of GDP in FY '10) has been supported by a strong revenue performance (15 per cent of GDP) and the availability of foreign aid (2.5 per cent) and domestic borrowing (2.5 per cent). However, with a GDP per capita of US $490 (estimated FY '11), thNepal remains the poorest country in South Asia and the 17th poorest in the world.

Major Political Parties

A total of 72 parties are registered with the Election Commission of Nepal. Of these, 32 were represented in the CA before its dissolution on May 27, 2012. Following are some of the country's biggest political parties.

Nepali Congress (NC): NC is a reform-oriented democratic socialist party. It was formed in India in 1946 after the merger of Nepali National Congress and Nepal Democratic Party. The NC led the 1950 Democratic Movement, which successfully ended the 104 years of Rana rule. It again led a democratic movement in 1990

www.orfonline.org 9 ORF Strategic Trends together with the leftist forces to end Panchayati Raj and reinstate parliamentary democracy.

Although NC stood throughout for a democratic system of government, and against feudalism, it advocated the importance of constitutional monarchy in Nepal. However by signing the 12-point agreement in in 2005 with the former rebel party, the NC, under the leadership of G P Koirala, played a historic role in formally ending the decade-long insurgency and ushering Nepal towards the foundation of a federal republic. It stood firmly against King Gyanendra's 2005 takeover of the government. As per the NC demand, the ensuing 2006 movement successfully reinstated the parliament and led to the formation of the Federal Republic of Nepal.

The NC got 109 seats in the CA poll, thus effectively becoming the second largest party in the country.

NC derives its strength from the middle class. The influence in Terai (mainly in Morang, Sunsari, and Jhapa districts of Terai), which earlier formed the major support base for NC, drastically changed after the Madhesh groups emerged in national politics during the CA polls. NC lost its bread and butter. Since the 1991 polls, in which the NC became the single largest party with 110 seats in the 205- member House of Representatives, its popularity dropped as it became the second largest party with 115 seats in the 601-member CA.

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As for the peace process and the writing of the new constitution, NC firmly stands and represents the “loktantric block” pro-democracy, republican group. Moreover, despite the hammering that NC got in last CA elections, there is a general feeling amongst the people that even with all the shortcomings, NC will not compromise on democratic credentials and in the long run can be trusted on larger issues of national concern6 .

If the main failing of the party must be identified, it is weak leadership. Its top leaders do not have public appeal; they lack charisma and command little respect. With the passing away of NC's octogenarian leader, GP Koirala, in 2010, a leadership vacuum has come to stay in the NC. Although the NC's stance of completion of the peace process before writing the constitution was very strong, the party has not been equally proactive in other matters. It has been on the defensive, in fact, and most of its programmes are knee-jerk reactions and limited to criticising the Maoists.

The party's relationship with the army is currently very cordial and it has stood firmly against the politicisation of the national army. NC took strong opposition to the decision taken by the former Maoist government to sack the then army chief Rookmangud Katwal.

Earlier, when the monarchy was in power, both NC and Army were suspicious about each other. The NC since the CA polls has maintained very little contact with the monarch as majority of the NC leaders feel that they have been let down time and again by the monarchy. The NC has lost its trust in the monarchy. One has to www.orfonline.org 11 ORF Strategic Trends remember that the monarchy forced the NC to join hands with the Maoists. The choice was between and a Republic; the NC chose the latter7 .

With the international community the NC shares a cordial relationship, including with India. International opinion, especially that of India, is taken quite seriously by the NC leadership. India has been mostly pro-NC and has looked upto the NC leadership when things in Nepal have not moved as per its expectations or when developments in Nepal have not gone down particularly well for India. The NC leadership realises that for the sake of Nepal's socio- economic progress and stability, it has to work closely with India8 . India has security problems/interests and NC realises that Nepal has to assist India in this respect and in return try and get as much economic benefits as possible from its giant neighbour.

Sushil Koirala, who belongs to the Koirala clan, is the current President of the NC. He was elected to the post on September 22, 2010 at the party's 12th general convention. He contested the 2008 CA elections from Banke-3 and lost, coming in third behind the candidates of the Madeshi People's Rights Forum and the CPN (Maoist). His family background is widely believed to be behind his rise to the top position in the party, as he himself is considered to be a weak leader.

Sher Bahadur Deuba is NC's second seniormost leader who has served long jail sentences throughout his political career. He has served as Nepal's PM three times: from 1995 to 1997; 2001 to 2002;

12 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic and June 2004 until February 1, 2005. A coup d'etat by King Gyanendra removed Deuba in October 2002. After two other governments and due to the people's clamour for his restoration, Gyanendra gave Deuba back his position in 2004. He was again removed on February 1, 2005 by King Gyanendra, who dissolved the Parliament for three years and seized direct power. Deuba was sentenced to two years in prison in July 2005 after facing corruption charges, but was subsequently released on February 13, 2006, after the anti-corruption body that sentenced him was outlawed.

He has been elected as a Member of Parliament three times, representing Dadeldhura District. In the election held to select the Parliamentary Leader for NC following the resignation of G. P. Koirala in 2001, he defeated by a huge margin and established himself as a powerful leader; especially because his rival was supported by G. P. Koirala, the then NC president. However, in 2009, Deuba lost the election for the position of the Leader of the Parliamentary Party to Ram Chandra Paudel. The main reason for his loss has been attributed to his support to party leader who wanted his daughter, an unpopular leader, to lead the party.

After a dispute with G. P. Koirala over the continuation of emergency in Nepal, NC underwent a vertical split—Nepali Congress led by Koirala and Nepali Congress (Democratic) led by Deuba. Both parties eventually merged in 2007, retaining the name of Nepali Congress. In the CA election on April 10, 2008, Deuba won from both Dadeldhura and Kanchanpur-4 constituencies under www.orfonline.org 13 ORF Strategic Trends the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. In the subsequent vote for Prime Minister, held in the CA on August 15, 2008, Deuba was nominated by the party but was defeated by Maoist chairman Prachanda. Although now nominated as the NC candidate for a consensus government, Deuba has lost support within the party with younger leaders calling him “weak and unpredictable.”

Another strong leader of the party is Ram Chandra Poudel, the current Chief Party Secretary. Poudel, a former journalist, is also the current parliamentary party leader of NC and fought 17 rounds of voting with former PM Jhalanath Khanal. He also lost to Maoist candidate Baburam Bhattarai in the August 28, 2011, election in Parliament for the post of PM.

Meanwhile, some youth leaders of NC have recently come to prominence. Gagan , for instance, is among those youth leaders of NC who are seen to be pursuing genuine peace and democracy efforts. He is currently a CA member and member of central working committee of the NC.

Parliamentary Election Results for NC

Total seats NC Position

1991 205 110 First

1994 205 83 Second

1999 205 111 First

2008 601 115 Second (CA elections)

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United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist): The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), was founded in 1994. Following a prolonged “People's War,” the party became the ruling party after the CA polls. It won 220 out of 575 elected seats. The party led a coalition government until May 4, 2009, when Chairman Prachanda resigned over a conflict with President Dr regarding the government's decision to sack the then chief of the Nepal Army. The CPN (Maoist) unified with the Communist Party of Nepal (Unity Centre-Masal) in January 2009, resulting in the formation of the United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

The party earlier considered Nepal a semi-feudal semi-colonial country. During the “People's War”, it identified six broad classes from which they could seek support: the proletariat; poor peasants; middle peasants; rich peasants; petty bourgeoisie; and national bourgeoisie. It views the proletariat, peasants, petty bourgeoisie and national capitalists as 'friendly classes' and sees feudal landlords and comprador-bureaucratic capitalists as 'class enemies'.

The party's main support base is its cadres and sympathisers all across the country. After joining the peace process and becaming the largest political force, it has extended its base in urban areas; a sizeable number of voters in support the Maoists. It is now a party that depends on both its own cadres and the masses.

The Maoists' aim during the 'People's War' was to establish a 'People's Democracy' in Nepal. The Maoists viewed this as a "historical revolt against feudalism, imperialism and reformists." The party pursued www.orfonline.org 15 ORF Strategic Trends the agenda of secular state and based its movement on the rights of minorities, janajatis (tribals), Dalits, and women. The main fighting and support forces during the insurgency consisted of ethnic groups like the , Tharus, Limbus, Tamangs, Dalits, , and , with the last two also providing the political and military leadership. These communities are also an important vote-bank for the UCPN (M). The party has strongholds in the mid-west and western regions of Nepal, which are backward regions. About 10 per cent of its support is in the far-west and in Gorkha. Another 10 per cent of its mass base comes from and east of it.

Maoists believe that the organisation of state legitimises some interests of particular classes and that political order is backed by some forces, mainly the army. With the change in productive forces, the political system also changes. Change is resisted by forces of the old political order9 . In Nepal, the army, Maoists claim, is loyal to the elements of the old forces and 'status quoists' (mainly the NC and the CPN-UML). The Maoists feel that the army has come in their way, so it will strive to bring the army leadership under its control.

The Maoists have long argued that the domestic feudalism is backed by India and this is the reason why Nepal could not make any significant strides towards capitalism. Cutting across all the factions, the Maoists think India wants Nepal to be a vassal state. While this view towards India has not changed, they have realised that they cannot rule Nepal only with anti-India rhetoric and deeds. This implies that the party will seek new ways to distance itself from India while not offending the latter.

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The United States, which gave full backing to Nepal's pro- democracy movement, still has the Maoists on its terrorist list. It has said it does not have immediate plans to remove the UCPN (Maoist) from its terrorism exclusion list10 . However, the US Department of State has said it hopes to have good working relations with the new Maoist-party-led government. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, in a recent interview, said the US government was looking forward to working with PM Bhattarai. While explaining that the US will continue to work through the issues that led to the inclusion of the Maoists in the terrorist list, in the first place, she also said the process would be reviewed on a “case-by-case” basis. The Maoists have been put on the US Terrorism Exclusion List but not the tougher Foreign Terrorist Organisation List, which would make it a crime to provide financial support to the group.

There has been a shift in China's policy towards Nepal since the Maoist ascendance to power. China had earlier adopted a policy of 'non-intervention' in the internal matters of Nepal. However, two factors have forced it to reshape its Nepal policy. First, with the abolition of the monarchy, China is seeking a reliable political force in Nepal which can secure its interests. Secondly, the frequency of protests by Tibetans in recent months has alerted China to the possibility of trouble on its Tibet border.

Consequently, China has sought to engage Nepalese political actors at all levels, primarily to secure the border with Nepal11 . With the Maoists in power, China also hopes to use its ideological commonalities to suppress the Tibetan movement in Nepal. Maoists www.orfonline.org 17 ORF Strategic Trends became Beijing's obvious choice due to ideological linkages and the Nepal Maoists' keenness to neutralise India's influence in the region.

Moreover, some party hardliners have suggested a people's republic similar to that of China on a number of occasions even after Maoists joined the political mainstream.

China also submitted to the first Maoist government a draft Sino- Nepal friendship treaty. The draft states that China will not attack Nepal and would respect Nepal's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Nepal, for its part, will recognise the 'One China' policy and not allow its territory to be used for “anti-China” activities. In fact, the draft treaty looks more like a strategic document that is tilted highly in favour of Chinese security concerns. Although the Maoist party was keen on such a treaty with China, the treaty has not yet materialised due to opposition from other political parties, mainly the NC.

Although the wide participation of otherwise excluded ethnic and caste groups like Magars was a notable feature of the Maoist war, the leadership is still controlled by the class, with only two members of ethnic minority communities— and Dev Gurung—in the seven-member Maoist Standing Committee. Still, there is significant presence of ethnic and Dalit groups in the Maoist politburo and central committee. Moreover, there are very few women in the Maoist high command, with only two in the politburo and none in the powerful standing committee.

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Leadership

Puspa Kamal Dahal Prachanda is the chairman of the UCPN (Maoist). Prachanda led CPN (M) as it launched an insurgency in February 1996. In 2008, the civil war culminated in the overthrow of the Shah dynasty and paved the way for a republic. The CA elected Prachanda as prime minister on August 16, 2008. Prachanda remained in office until May 23, 2009. In the CA election, he was elected from Kathmandu constituency-10, winning by a large margin and receiving nearly twice as many votes as his nearest rival, the NC candidate. He also won overwhelmingly in Rolpa constituency-2, receiving 34,230 votes against 6,029 for Shanta Kumar Oli of the CPN (UML).

Dr. Baburam Bhattarai is the present and 35th . He is a senior Standing Committee member and vice chairperson of the party. He was elected to the CA from Gorkha and held the Finance portfolio in the Cabinet formed after the election. He is regarded as the party ideologue who, on February 4, 1996, gave the government, led by the then PM , a list of 40 demands related to "nationalism, democracy and livelihood." He threatened to launch a 'civil war' if those demands were not met; the demands included:

· The domination of foreign capital in Nepali industries, business and finance should be stopped.

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· Discriminatory treaties, including the 1950 Nepal-India Treaty, should be abrogated.

· Land under the control of the feudal system should be confiscated and distributed to the landless and the homeless.

Relations between Prachanda and Bhattarai soured in late 2004 and early 2005, reportedly due to a disagreement on power sharing inside the party. Bhattarai was unhappy with the consolidation of power under Prachanda. At one point, Prachanda expelled Bhattarai from the party, though he was later reinstated.

Mohan Baidya 'Kiran' is a hardliner and is now the Chairman of the new party, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist. He was the senior vice-chairman of the mother party earlier. In 1986, Baidya became the general secretary of the CPN (Masal) which was an underground group at that time. He holds extreme communist ideology and commands over a good majority of the Maoist combatants of the PLA (People's Liberation Army). Baidya has stood for bulk integration of the combatants into the security forces in the country and has called for formulation of a “people's constitution” before concluding the peace process. He differed with Bhattarai over key issues surrounding the peace process. The break-up of the UCPN- Maoist was a direct fallout of the tussle between the top Maoist leaders.

Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist: The CPN- UML party is a cadre-based party and an important coalition partner

20 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic for both Maoists and the NC. It is split into two groups: Jhalanath Khanal and Ban Dev Gautam group on the side of the Maoists, and K P Oli-Madhav Kumar Nepal faction on the side of the democratic bloc.

The CPN was founded in April 1949 during the people's struggle against the autocratic feudal Rana regime. It was founded by the revolutionaries to wage the people's struggle and to establish a new democratic system in the country. was the founding leader of the party. He organised mass organisations among peasants, workers, women, students, and youth. These groups also formed the initial support base of the party.

The party was banned in 1952 for three years. However, the party firmly continued its struggle for the establishment of a new democratic system. It successfully convened its first National Congress on January 30, 1954; was elected General Secretary and the programme of New Democratic Revolution was adopted as the strategic party programme. However, after the Second National Congress in May 1957, which elected Dr. as General Secretary, the party took a rightist capitalistic deviation leading to disunity. Several efforts followed for the revitalisation of the Party.

These efforts created a chain of events towards polarisation and integration in the Nepalese Communist Movement. Pushpa Lal formed a separate group in 1968 hoping to restore the unity and revolutionary activities. In 1971, a radical peasant movement was www.orfonline.org 21 ORF Strategic Trends organised by a section of the party in the far eastern part of Nepal in Jhapa. The Jhapa movement created a conducive environment in bringing together various revolutionaries from different parts of the country; this led to the formation of the All Nepal Communist Revolutionary Coordination Committee (Marxist-Leninist) in 1975. Its main goal was to build a unified communist party and movement in the country. The unification process gradually gained momentum and the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist) was established in 1978 and C.P. Mainali became the first General Secretary of the Party.

In 1986, Man Mohan Adhikari and joined hands in establishing the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist). Seven different communist parties and groups, including the CPN (M-L) and CPN (M), came together to launch a mass struggle against the system under the banner of the United Front in 1990. After the establishment of the multi-party system in 1990, the CPN (M-L) and CPN (M) unified as the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) in January 1991.

The Fifth National Congress of the CPN (UML) was held in January 1993 in Kathmandu. Convened in an open and democratic atmosphere and observed by many foreign political leaders, this Congress was a milestone in the 's communist movement. The Congress adopted the People's Multi-Party Democracy as the political programme of the Nepalese revolution, which was propounded by . Bhandari was later killed in a mysterious car accident in 1993, together with Jeev Raj Ashrit, a member of the party's Standing Committee12 .

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Madhav Kumar Nepal is an important leader of the party. He joined the communist movement in 1969 and is considered a politician with integrity. In spite of being a former deputy prime minister in the 1994-1995 government, Nepal lost the CA elections from two constituencies. He, however, was elected PM in May 2009 after his predecessor Prachanda resigned over a conflict with the President over the dismissal of the Army Chief of Staff. Nepal resigned on June 30, 2010 to pave the way for a national consensus government as demanded by the opposition Maoist party.

Jhalanath Khanal is another powerful leader of the party. Khanal won from the Ilam-1 constituency in the CA elections. He led the CPN (UML) as General Secretary from 2008 to February 2009 and was elected as the Chairman of the CPN (UML) on February 16, 2009. On February 3, 2011, after seven months of political gridlock in which no candidate could muster enough votes to be elected as prime minister, Khanal was elected to the highest executive post by the CA. The party and its leaders have held close ties with both India and China without antagonising one against the other. As for the monarchy, the UML joined the government during former King Gyanendra's rule; it became anti-monarchy after the dismissal of the Deuba government.

Madhesi parties

There was a phenomenal rise in the number of political parties—particularly between May and September 1990—as strategic manoeuvres to participate in parliamentary elections and www.orfonline.org 23 ORF Strategic Trends find a place in post-election Nepal. The Nepal (Good Will Party), one of several regional and ethnic parties, was founded in April 1990. It aimed at promoting the interests of the Terai Region, including the expulsion of the Hill people from Terai and the establishment of a special relationship with India. Serving as a forum for people of Indian descent, the party also favoured the introduction of as Nepal's second national language. Its ideology supported a democratic socialist society. Other Terai parties are Nepal Terai Unity Forum, the Nepal Terai Association, and the Nepal Terai Muslim Congress Party. There are around 18 Madhesi parties at present in Nepal.

At present, the United Democratic Madhesi Front, a coalition of five Madhesh-based parties has emerged as the fourth largest political force in Nepal. The group, which emerged in national mainstream with the slogan of 'One Madhesh One Pradesh', is a force to reckon with and has demanded equal opportunity for the Madhesi people. The Front includes parties like Sadbhavana Party, Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party, and Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal.

The Madhesi parties are considered close to India due to, first of all, their geographical proximity with the Indian border. The Terai-based parties have also demanded bulk integration of 10,000 Madhesis in the Nepal Army. Inclusiveness and equal opportunity are at the centre of these parties' political agenda. They have kept little contact with the former monarch since the CA polls.

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Other Parties: Among the several ethnic parties/groups are the following: · National People's Liberation Front (Nepal Rashtriya Jana Mukti Morcha)

· National Mongol Organisation (Rashtriya Mongol Sanghatan)

· SETAMAGURALI (an acronym of names of different ethnic groups of eastern Nepal including the Tamang, Magar, and Gurung)

· Front of the Kirat Aborigines (Nepal Kirat Adhibasi Janajiti Morch)

· Freedom Front of the (Limbuwan Mukti Morcha)

· NEFIN (Nepalese Federation of Indigenous Nationalities)

· Nepal Nationalist Gorkha Parishad (Nepal Rashtrabadi Gorkha Parishad). The Parishad, revived in September 1990, was founded in 1951 as part of Rana revivalist politics and had come second in the 1959 general elections. Some of its senior leaders later joined the Nepali Congress.

Of those groups favouring the monarchy, two conservative parties can be given considerable attention. Hastily founded by two former prime ministers, both parties were called the National Democratic www.orfonline.org 25 ORF Strategic Trends

Party—and then suffixed with the names 'Thapa' and 'Chand'. Other parties of this political bent include: the National Democratic Unity Panchayat Party (Rashtriya Prajatantrik Ekata Panchayat Party); Nepal Welfare Party (Nepal Janahit Party); United Democratic Party (Samyukti Prajatantra Party); and Nepal Panchayat Council (Nepal Panchayat Parishad).

Other than the NC, 15 centrist parties have also emerged in Nepal. Most of these parties were founded by former members of the NC and defecting panchas who had shifted allegiance to the multiparty system. Meanwhile, the Women's Democratic Party works at promoting the rights, interests, and freedoms of Nepalese women.

Political Trends: New opportunities and new challenges

Political instability has been the defining feature of the Nepali state during the last two decades. Consider this: Nepal has had twenty governments since the introduction of democracy in 1990; no government has completed a full term. The transition from a monarchy to a republican State has been difficult. Although the transition represents an opportunity to endorse the devolution of power, social and political inclusion, and accountability, Nepal faces daunting challenges ahead, including the inconclusive peace process and the stalled writing of a new constitution. In this context, some likely political trends are highlighted below.

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The deepening of political polarisation

Nepali politics is informally divided into the democratic and leftist coalition, with Congress leading the former and the UCPN (Maoist), the latter. The rightist parties—like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janshakti Party on the one hand and the Madhesi parties, besides the Upendra Yadav faction—are on the democratic platform. This, despite the fact that the Madhesi front has joined the present government led by Baburam Bhattarai.

The CPN-UML is vertically divided. While the Madhav Kumar Nepal and K. P. Sharma Oli group within UML is leaning towards NC, the Jalanath Khanal and Bam Dev group is tilted towards the Maoists. Other left fringe parties and Yadav's Madhesi Janadhikar Forum are with the Maoists.

Political polarisation will only increase further as parties take non- compromising stands on issues related to the peace process and state restructuring. For instance, the UCPN (Maoist) has long held the view that 'no compromise will be made13 on the issue of the form of governance. While the Maoists want to have a directly elected presidential system, the democratic bloc insists on retaining the Westminster model. This deadlock virtually paralysed the writing of the constitution from November 2011 to early 201214 .

The parties also hold strong views on the issue of restructuring of the State along ethnic lines. While the Maoists are supportive of a federal structure on a single-identity based model, the NC and UML www.orfonline.org 27 ORF Strategic Trends have opposed it. All consensus broke down over this issue and the CA was dissolved on May 27, 2012.

The stubbornness of factionalism

Almost all major political parties in Nepal are divided from within, giving rise to factionalism and fierce intra-party rivalry. This has posed a major obstacle to the logical conclusion of the peace process and writing of a new constitution. While the NC is split between two groups, led respectively by party president Koirala and senior leader Deuba, the CPN-UML has two blocs. The first is represented by the Jhalanath Khanal-Bamdev Gautam faction, and the second, by Oli and Madhav Nepal. Their rivalry surfaced when Khanal was contesting the PM's position in the Legislative Parliament: the Oli- Nepal faction openly criticised Khanal for being 'soft' on the Maoists and proceeded to obstruct almost all party mechanisms.

Factionalism is ripe in the Madhesi parties too. Although the present MPRF portrays a strong front in Nepali polity, factionalism come to the fore when Upendra Yadav split the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum to lead a separate party. Further factionalism amongst the Madhesi parties will weaken their voice and the core demand for autonomy of the Terai plains. Likewise, the UCPN (Maoist) is experiencing ideological confusion that has, in turn, triggered factionalism. Internal power struggle has thrown the party into disarray. Internal divisions led to a split in the party with Baidhya now heading a new . The split occurred as a result of lack of clarity in the party’s aim and programme. In the 2005 Chunwang meeting they

28 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic made a tactical shift by suspending the protracted people's war and deciding to join hands with the political parties against the King. At that time, Baidhya was in jail in India. Since the Chunwang line was adopted in his absence, Baidhya has been attempting to turn this process around; terming it a deviation from the ideological goals of revolution. What the party has failed to envision is its tactical line after the country turns into a republic.

The Maoists introduced the slogan of 'people's revolt' and gave it a try in May 2010 in the form of urban insurrection, but failed miserably as the people of Kathmandu valley rose up in the thousands to protest the Maoist designs. This led to the current chaos in the party, which can now neither go back to warfare nor launch an urban revolt. The hardliners accuse the party establishment of deceiving the people. Before the split, there were three major groups within the party, led by Prachanda, the moderate faction by Babuarm Bhattarai, and the hardliners by Mohan Baidya.

NC, UML losing ground

Once a major political force, the NC lost out in its key constituencies during the CA polls. The loss has been attributed to bad governance and corruption in the decade that followed 1990 when NC was at the helm of affairs for seven consecutive years. G. P. Koirala served as Prime Minister for four tenures during that decade. In the May 1991 general elections, NC had secured a majority vote of 114 seats out of 205.

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The influence in Terai, which formed major support base for NC earlier, drastically changed after the Madhesh groups emerged in national politics during the CA polls. And thus the “bread and butter” of NC was gone. It has slowly gained votes at right of centre, but lost a little of the left of centre votes. NC leaders say they need to make inroads with the youth and appeal to them with young charismatic leaders. Most important, though, is the Madhesi vote bank. Strengthening democracy or empowering the people hardly figures on the agenda of NC anymore.

Although formed as a strong revolutionary group to overthrow oligarchy and later authoritarian rule of the monarchs, the UML has disintegrated as a solid block in Nepali polity. It does not have an agenda for reform and development although it has been in almost every government since the 1990 movement. In its early years, the party sent out a clarion call for the establishment of the to liberate the country from feudal and imperialist exploitation and to preserve the independence of the country. For that purpose, people from all walks of life, especially the youth and labourers, were mobilised massively. As UML failed to advocate the cause of this lot, it has lost its original support structure. Heavy youth migration to the Gulf and other countries too is a cause of worry for the party, which drew tremendous strength from the youth organisations. Majority of UML workers joined the Maoist party due to disillusionment at the UML's way of functioning and its inability to deliver on their concerns.

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The growth of Maoist forces

The UCPN (Maoist) is the largest political party in Nepal and it can mobilise over 100,000 fulltime cadres all at once on the streets, overwhelming the state security apparatus. It has organisational network throughout the country and can well be a force to effect positive changes in Nepali society. It has the potential to muster a majority to bring about radical changes in the country.

The Maoist define 'radical change' in these terms, among others: dismantling the remnants of feudalism that they believe have stymied the economy; reforming the judiciary, bureaucracy, and the security forces, mainly the Nepal Army. It should be noted that the Maoists continue to carry the torch of hope for the majority of the poor, lower-middle class, and even the middle class who want to see drastic changes in society. It was the strength of the Maoist party that brought it back to power in 2011. It can now complete the task which the former government of Prachanda could not do: complete the integration process, formulate a progressive constitution, and work as a social democratic party for the betterment of the country and for creating a 'New Nepal.' Current Prime Minister Bhattarai embodies this hope for the people. He is the party's strongman who is trusted by people across ideological beliefs.

Chairman Dahal still has the command over the party despite being faced by strong hardline opposition during the past few years. However, there has been a loss of credibility for Prachanda after the split in the UCPN (Maoist). The party could have emerged an even www.orfonline.org 31 ORF Strategic Trends stronger force in the next election had Prachanda been able to keep the party unity intact.

The likely emergence of ethnic conflict

The caste and ethnic issue has been a dominant factor in the discourse on state restructuring. This is because even after restoration of democracy, government policies and the institutional framework failed to address the concerns of the most excluded populations, mainly women, Dalits, and Janajatis. Although a third (33 per cent) of the current parliament comprises of women, they are not given a prominent role in decision-making.

The excluded groups are now seeking a greater role in federal structures and want their rights guaranteed. This trend has also given rise to ethnic movements: the Limbuwan uprising, the Khumbuwan struggle, and Dalit and Janajati movements in the hill districts of Nepal.

The 2001 census listed 103 social groups in Nepal. However, no single group is predominant and the population can be broadly divided into Hindu caste groups, Janajatis and the religious minorities (mostly Muslim). Caste groups constitute 57.5 per cent of the population, Janajatis 37.2 per cent and the religious minorities 4.3 per cent15 . Dalits remain at the very bottom of Nepal's caste hierarchy. Discrimination is more entrenched in the country's less- developed areas, especially in the mid-and far-western regions. Nepal has prepared a schedule listing 59 Janajati groups.

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Social inclusion and empowerment thus remain major challenges for Nepal. The process of state restructuring on the basis of ethnicity has already begun, but not all groups are happy. More ethnic minorities are seeking right to self-determination and want a bigger share of state resources. In case the parties fail to adequately address the demands of this lot, Nepal may witness the eruption of ethnic violence on an unprecedented scale.

The report submitted by the State Restructuring Commission in January has already met with criticism. The majority faction in the Commission has suggested 11 federal states while the second report representing the minority faction of the commission has suggested six federal structures.

The main report has advised the government to divide the country into 11 provinces, with preferential rights to dominant ethnic groups at the local level. The 11 provinces include Karnali-Khaptad, Madhes-Abadh-Tharuwan, Magrat, Tamuwan, Narayani, Newa, Tamsaling, Kirat, Limbuwan, Madhes--Bhojpura, and one non-territorial Dalit state. The report prepared by the dissenting members has made a recommendation for the government to divide the country into six provinces, including two in the plains and four in the hills and mountains, on the basis of economic viability.

Some international donors are supporting a radical agenda in Nepal, including the creation of ethnicity-based provinces with autonomy and the right to self-determination. According to some media reports, foreign donors, especially the Europeans, have financially www.orfonline.org 33 ORF Strategic Trends supported ethnic organisations and other NGOs that have a dominant ethnic agenda. Many fear that this will breed ethnic and social tensions in the future. It will also make the constitution- making process more complicated.

Province models as suggested by State Restructuring Commission Source: ekantipur.com Table 1. Population by Mother Tongue (in per cent), 2001# Nepali 48.61 Awadhi 2.47 Maithili 12.30 Bantawa 1.63 Bhojpuri 7.53 Gurung 1.49 Tharu 5.86 Limbu 1.47 Tamang 5.19 Bajjika 1.05 Newar 3.63 Magar 3.39 Others 5.38

34 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic

Table 2. Population by Religion (in per cent), 2001# 80.62 Buddhism 10.74 Islam 4.20 Kirat 3.60 Christianity 0.45 Others 0.39

Table 3. Population by Caste/Ethnic Groups (in per cent), 2001#

Chhetri 15.80 Gurung 2.39 Brahman 12.74 Damai/Dholi 1.72 Magar 7.14 Limbu 1.58 Tharu 6.75 1.47 Tamang 5.64 Sarki 1.40 Newar 5.48 Teli 1.34 Muslim 4.27 Chamar, Harijan, Ram 1.19 Kami 3.94 Koiri 1.11 Yadav 3.94 Rai 2.79 Others 19.31 Source: Department of Statistics,

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Conclusions

The political crisis in Nepal has been precipitated mainly by factionalism and distrust among and within the major political parties. Even with three extensions—in May 2010, May 2011, and August 2011—the CA could not draft a constitution as per the popular wish of the people. It is the lack of consensus among the major political actors in Nepal in favour of democracy which is holding back the transition. Clearly, power-sharing arrangements have taken precedence over the more essential task of drafting a constitution.

The dilution of political ideology and growing ethnic and regional biases appear to be dominating the country's political landscape. Each major party has its own strengths and weaknesses. For instance, the Maoist party gains an advantage with its arms and cadres, the psychological fear it can create, and its pro-ethnicity approach on federalism. At the same time, however, its anti-- and Dalit stance (no state has been allotted to them in the proposed federal setup) has irritated the triumvirate, which together constitute nearly 38 per cent of the total population16 .

Similarly, the Nepali Congress, which played a role in getting the Maoists to put an end to their decade-long insurgency and join the peace process, is losing its central role in national politics. The coming together of the parties from Terai and their joining the Maoist-led coalition government shows that Nepal's future politics might see the waning of the role played by the national parties.

36 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic

Nepal's parties are losing their traditional support. NC and UML, for example, lost their mass base because they blindly followed the Maoists on every crucial issue, including federalism, secularism, and the making of the republic.

It could be said that they lost their support to the Maoists, politically and psychologically17 . For instance, a large number of voters from the Nepal Army, traditionalists as well as monarchists, cast their votes in favour of the Maoists in the CA polls after the NC became a pro- republic party.

Other factors have also contributed to the weakening of the UML, and even the Maoists, including the breakup of the Congress and UML and formation of the Terai parties, and the infusion of massive funding of ethnic groups with political agenda by international donors.

Today there exists a huge leadership vacuum in the country. With the passing away of G. P. Koirala, the NC's role has become limited to criticising the Maoists. Nor is there any strong and visionary leadership among the Madhesi leaders and the UML party. NC and UML leaders lost much of the public support due to poor governance during the last decade when these two parties were in power.

Likewise in the UCPN (Maoist), Prachanda, who held way during the People's War, is no longer considered a leader of much appeal. His government failed on both counts of concluding the peace www.orfonline.org 37 ORF Strategic Trends process and drafting a constitution. Faced by a serious ideological crisis and fierce intra-party feud, Mohan Baidya has split the party. People had high expectations from the Bhattarai government to take the peace process and the constitution drafting exercise to their logical conclusion, but Bhattarai too has failed in these endeavours.

Unfortunately, the older lot of leaders have been reluctant to pave the way for the new generation. Old stalwarts are not ready to leave their positions and privileges behind and thus continue to rule by their own will. In the short term, these leaders will stay relevant in Nepali politics. In the long run, however, it will become more urgent for a new generation of leaders to emerge, especially in the NC and CPN-UML.

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Summary of the April 10, 2008 Nepalese Constituent Assembly election results

Party FPTP Proportional Seats +/ Votes % Votes % FPTP Prop. Nom. Total % % — Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) 3,145,519 30.5 3,144,204 29.3 120 100 9 229 38.1 – Nepali Congress 2,348,890 22.8 14.50 2,269,883 21.1 37 73 5 115 19.1 Communist Party of Nepal (Unified – Marxist Leninist) 2,229,064 21.6 16.62 2,183,370 20.3 33 70 5 108 18 Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal 634,154 6.15 678,327 6.32 30 22 2 54 8.98 Tarai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party 345,587 3.35 338,930 3.16 9 11 1 21 3.49

Rastriya Prajatantra Party 310,214 3.01 10.84 263,431 2.45 0 8 — 8 1.33

Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist- Leninist) 168,196 1.63 243,545 2.27 0 8 1 9 1.5 Sadbhavana Party 174,086 1.69 167,517 1.56 4 5 — 9 1.5 136,846 1.33 –0.89 164,381 1.53 2 5 1 8 1.33 Communist Party of Nepal (United) 39,100 0.38 154,968 1.44 0 5 — 5 0.83 Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal 76,684 0.74 110,519 1.03 0 4 — 4 0.5 93,578 0.91 106,224 0.99 1 3 — 4 0.66 Rastriya Janshakti Party 79,925 0.77 102,147 0.95 0 3 — 3 0.5 Nepal Workers Peasants Party 65,908 0.64 0.08 74,089 0.69 2 2 1 5 0.83 Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch 36,060 0.35 71,958 0.67 0 2 — 2 0.33 Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandidevi) 45,254 0.44 –2.78 55,671 0.52 0 2 1 3 0.5 38,568 0.37 –0.70 53,910 0.5 0 2 — 2 0.33 Nepali Janata Dal 17,162 0.17 0.04 48,990 0.46 0 2 — 2 0.33 Communist Party of Nepal (Unified) 51,928 0.5 48,600 0.45 0 2 — 2 0.33 Dalit Janajati Party 31,444 0.3 40,348 0.37 0 1 — 1 0.17 Nepa Rastriya Party 11,352 0.11 37,757 0.35 0 1 — 1 0.17

Samajbadi Prajatantrik Janata Party 13,246 0.13 35,752 0.33 0 1 — 1 0.17 Chure Bhawar Rastriya Ekta Party 18,908 0.13 28,575 0.27 0 1 — 1 0.17 Nepal Loktantrik Samajbadi Dal 10,432 0.1 25,022 0.23 0 1 — 1 0.17 Nepal Parivar Dal — 23,512 0.22 — 1 — 1 0.17 Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist) 1,759 0.02 21,234 0.2 0 0 — 0 Tamsaling Nepal Rastriya Dal 5,468 0.05 20,657 0.19 0 0 — 0 Rastriya Janata Dal 5,556 0.05 19,305 0.18 0 0 — 0 Commun ist Party of Nepal (United Marxist) 10,076 0.1 –0.04 18,717 0.17 0 0 — 0 Lok Kalayankari Janata Party 6,700 0.06 18,123 0.17 0 0 — 0 Nepal Janabhavana Party 104 0 ±0.00 13,173 0.12 0 0 — 0 Rastriya Janata Dal Nepal 4,497 0.04 12,678 0.12 0 0 — 0 Nepal Janata Party 5,635 0.05 12,531 0.12 0 0 — 0 www.orfonline.org 39 ORF Strategic Trends

Mongol National Organisation 6,349 0.06–0.01 11,578 0.11 0 0 — 0 Nepal Shanti Kshetra Parishad 45 0 10,565 0.1 0 0 — 0 Shanti Party Nepal 970 0.01 10,511 0.1 0 0 — 0 Rastriya Bikas Party 2,612 0.02 9,329 0.09 0 0 — 0 Nepal Sukumbasi Party (Loktantrik) 1,459 0.01 8,322 0.08 0 0 — 0 Nepal Rastriya Bikas Party 1,603 0.01 8,026 0.07 0 0 — 0 Nepal Dalit Shramik Morcha 93 0 –0.08 7,107 0.07 0 0 — 0 Samajbadi Party Nepal 1,197 0.01 6,564 0.06 0 0 — 0 Muskan Sena Nepal Party 2,490 0.02 6,292 0.06 0 0 — 0 Nepali Congress (Rastrabadi) — 5,721 0.05 — 0 — 0 Nepal Samyabadi Dal 60 0 5,478 0.05 0 0 — 0 Nawa Janabadi Morcha 992 0.01 5,193 0.05 0 0 — 0 Hindu Prajatantrik Party 265 0 4,902 0.05 0 0 — 0 Nepal Samata Party 459 0 4,697 0.04 0 0 — 0 Rastrabadi Yuba Morcha 496 0 4,772 0.04 0 0 — 0 League Nepal Shanti Ekta Party 316 0 4,443 0.04 0 0 — 0 Rastrabadi Ekta Party 43 0 4,150 0.04 0 0 — 0 Sa-Shakti Nepal 532 0 3,752 0.03 0 0 — 0

Janamukti Party Nepal 281 0 –0.11 3,396 0.03 0 0 — 0 Nepal Rastriya Loktantrik Dal 57 0 3,216 0.03 0 0 — 0 Nawa Nepal Prajatantrik Dal 34 0 3,016 0.03 0 0 — 0 Liberal Samajbadi Party 152 0 — 0 — — 0 Nepal Rastriya Janakalayan Party 96 0 — 0 — — 0 Independents 123,619 1.2 –1.54 — 2 — — 2 0.33 Total (turnout%) 10,306,120 100 — 10,739,078 100 240 335 26 601 100 Source: www.election.gov.np nepalnews.com, kantipuronline.com, kantipuronline.com

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Endnotes: 1. S D Muni, Nepal's Democratic Evolution: Roles of Inclusive Consensus and India, Think India Quarterly, Volume 13, Number 4, October-December 2010. 2. Bishnu Raj Upreti, Integrating Maoist ex-combatants in Nepal, South Asia Journal, July-September 2011. 3. Yubaraj Ghimeri, Chill in Kathmandu, Indian Express, February 4, 2012. 4. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook 2008; The World Bank 2006. 5. Nepal Country Overview 2011, The World Bank. 6. Interview with Udaya Shumsher Rana, Vice President Nepal Tarun Dal; Mahasamiti Member Nepali Congress; Nepali Congress Candidate for Constituency Assembly election from Laliltpur , September 8, 2011. 7. ibid. 8. ibid. 9. Post Bahadur Basnet, Oligarchy & conflict in UCPN (Maoist,)Published in Republica, 2011-07-18. 10. Kantipur, August 31, 2011. 11. Nihar Nayak, Nepal: New 'Strategic Partner' of China?, March 30, 2009, IDSA comment. 12. http://www.cpnuml.org/en/about.phpc. 13. Republica, January 23, 2012. 14. After long stalemate the political parties agreed in April 2012 to adopt a mixed form of government with directly elected president and a prime minister elected by the parliament. But they are still at odds over the justification and election of president and prime minister. 15. Unequal Citizens: Nepal Gender and Social Exclusion Assessment report 2011, DFID and World Bank. 16. Interview with Yubaraj Ghimeri, senior Nepali journalist and political analyst, September 24, 2011. 17. Ibid.

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References 1. Asia 2025: Realising the Asian Century, edited by Harinder S Kohli, Ashok Sharma and Anil Sood. 2. New Nepal: The Fault Lines, Nishal Natha Pandey, SAGE, 2010. 3. Internal Conflict in Nepal: Transnational Consequences, editor V R Raghavan, Vij Books, 2011. 4. The Unmaking of Nepal, RSN Singh, Lancer, 2010. 5. Communist movement in Nepal: Historico-Political Contest, B C Upreti, Kalpoz, 2008. 6. Party building in Nepal: Organisation, Leadership and People – A comparative study of the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, Krishna Hachhethu, Mandala, 2002.

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