EARCH S F E O R U R N E D V A R T E I O S N B O Strategic Trends South Asia Series Volume 1 Issue 4, July 2012 Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic Akanshya Shah Observer Research Foundation Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic Akanshya Shah Observer Research Foundation Strategic Trends presents a broad scrutiny of events and actors in the contemporary geo-political context for an informed appraisal of the near future. This series forms an important part of ORF's Net Assessment Project launched in January 2011. The project, in the present edition, is an attempt to study key developments and policy makers, especially in the political and military sphere, in South Asia with a view to map the emerging challenges facing India. About the Author: Akanshya Shah is an Associate Fellow at ORF. Her research interests include Nepali politics and Nepal's foreign policy, specifically its relations with India and China. At ORF, she is currently focussing on Nepal's ongoing peace process and related developments. Akanshya worked in the Nepali media for about a decade and continues to write regularly for the country's mainstream newspapers. 2012 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic On May 27, 2012, the Constituent Assembly (CA) of Nepal was abruptly dissolved without it delivering on its mandate of framing a new constitution following a complete breakdown of political consensus over some issues of national concern. The most important of these issues involved the restructuring of the State. Since then, amidst chaos and demonstrations, Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai has announced the holding of fresh polls for the CA on November 22 of this year. The question remains: How far can the elections bridge the political and constitutional void that is pushing Nepal towards the edge? This Paper examines Nepal's political stakeholders, their attitudes and orientations, to explore possible trajectories in the nation's future political landscape. Introduction n 2008, Nepal became a federal democratic republic, abolishing the then 240-year-old monarchy by the first meeting of the IIConstituent Assembly (CA). Nepal also ceased to be the only Hindu kingdom in the world when the country was declared 'secular' in 2007 by the newly revived House of Representatives. www.orfonline.org 1 ORF Strategic Trends The 601-member CA was elected in April 2008 and carried the slogan, 'New Nepal'. This meant a complete transformation of the country, especially targeted at socio-economic prosperity of the marginalised and downtrodden sections of society based on the concept of inclusion. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) emerged as the largest political force in the CA polls with 229 seats. The Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML took second and third positions, respectively. A total of 25 parties obtained representation in the CA, with marginalised groups getting a significant proportion of seats: 33 per cent women; 38 per cent Janajati; 33 per cent Madhesi; and eight per cent Dalits. The CA was given the mandate of writing a new Constitution within two years. After four years of its formation and three extensions, however, the Assembly was suddenly dissolved on May 27, 2012 after a breakdown of consensus over the issue of state restructuring. In reality, the political consensus, which drove the Jana Andolan II (People's Movement II, 2006), broke down immediately after the CA election. Factionalism and divisions within the major political parties emerged soon after the CA poll results came out. One analyst observed that the CA results made the Maoists 'complacent' and the two other major political parties, the NC and the CPN-UML, 'insecure' vis-à-vis the Maoists1 . As a result, a new Constitution has yet to be drafted. It is still unclear what future structures would be taken by the political system and 2 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic the State and the type of federalism that will be finally adopted. With the dissolution of the CA, a state of confusion persists in Nepal over the next course of action. While the Baburam Bhattarai government has called for fresh polls on November 22, 2012, a consensus has yet to be reached on holding another election to the CA. The NC and other smaller parties considered the dissolution of the CA as attempt at absolute state capture by the Maoists, whereas the establishment faction of the Maoist party said that the constitution could not be formed due to the “retrograde and status-quoist thinking” of parties like NC and UML. The blame game, needless to say, is at its peak. Maoist re-emergence to power In May 2009, the government led by UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Prachanda was toppled following its attempt to sack the then Nepal Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal. A coalition government— comprising all major political parties and barring the Maoists—was then formed and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the CPN-UML was named prime minister. Due to obstruction from the opposition, however, Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned in June 2010. 17 rounds of voting were then conducted by Parliament to elect a new PM and, finally, Jhalanath Khanal of CPN-UML won. However, he too resigned after two months of being in office, due to his incapacity to conclude the peace process and the drafting of a new constitution. www.orfonline.org 3 ORF Strategic Trends A Maoist-led government emerged under the leadership of its vice- chairman, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, on August 28, 2011. Bhattarai continues to head an unusual coalition supported by five Madhesi parties, which since 2006 have aligned with the democratic groups led by the Congress. The NC joined the Bhattarai government on May 10, 2012 after the May 4 agreement and for the first time since 2008 a national unity government came into being in order to conclude the Constitution drafting process. Bhattarai's consensus government lasted only 17 days after NC walked out over the issue of ethnic restructuring of the State. Bhattarai's status has since been downgraded to that of caretaker PM. In all, Nepal has had five prime ministers since the CA elections. Political tensions and consequent power-sharing battles have continued. Peace Process At the heart of the crisis in Nepal has been the lack of progress on the peace-building front. In this context, the peace agreement and interim constitution envisioned a six-month timeframe for the completion of the process of integration and rehabilitation of the former Maoist combatants. Such timeframe was not adhered to, however, and even after four years of signing of the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, real progress on the peace process is yet to be achieved. This failure has been mainly due to tensions over power sharing and different positions taken by major political parties on integration2 . 4 www.orfonline.org Nepal: Political Prospects for the Young Republic Even after signing a fresh agreement on November 1, 2011, which fixed the number of combatants to be integrated at 6,500, the integration process could not be concluded mainly due to opposition by the hardliner faction of the UCPN (Maoist). In December 2011, the Bhattarai government concluded the regrouping process of the combatants, wherein they were asked to choose between integration, rehabilitation, and voluntary retirement. Over 7,300 combatants are set to leave their cantonments as part of the settlement package for Maoist fighters. Under this package, they will be given a financial grant between Rs 500,000 and Rs 800,000 in two installments. The stalled integration process finally received a push in April 2012 when the government decided to send the Nepal Army to take over the camps. This can be seen as a positive development in the peace process. However, only around 3,000 former combatants chose to be integrated as against the number of over 6,000 that was agreed upon in November 2011. The drop in the number can be associated with the low morale among the fighters, who led grim lives in the cantonment for over four years; it is also a result of the division within the United CPN (Maoist). The hardliner faction, led by senior Vice-Chairman Mohan Baidya Kiran, had urged the combatants to drop out of integration and regroup in order to continue 'the struggle for a people's revolt'. Earlier, it was reported that 9,000 combatants wanted integration. Other contentious issues remain, including rank and file determination and that of age limit. Although the Army has said that www.orfonline.org 5 ORF Strategic Trends the Maoist fighters could be given the rank up to that of Major, or at most of Lt Colonel, some 443 of them want ranks up to Lt Colonel3 . With the dissolution of the CA, the sentiment is growing that the integration process could be further stalled. Constitution making Apart from the combatants' settlement issue, the model of governance and federalism continue to remain contentious issues as well. The State Restructuring Commission, by a majority, recommended the creation of 11 provinces, most of them on the basis of ethnicity. A minority report, meanwhile, has recommended the formation of six provinces. In view of major differences over state reconstruction amongst the political parties, the Constitution writing process remains incomplete. Since 2007, internal conflicts within all major parties in Nepal have not allowed any party to come up with firm positions on the Constitution. Although all other political parties have rejected a one-party imposed constitution, they have not given their own alternatives to the Maoist version of the “Constitution of the People's Federal Republic of Nepal” prepared in May 2010.