CONFLICT RESOLUTION',VOLUMiE I, N[UMBER 1, 1957 Project for a world intelligence center QUINCY WRIGHT CarnegieEndowment for International Peace 1. Introduction primarily with creating a new atmosphere -Since H-bomb war has become a definite of mutual confidence between the Western possibility, all thinking people have recog. and Soviet blocs, which, it was hoped, nized that the proper conduct of interna- would make subsequent negotiations on tional relations is of prime importance to specific topics fruitful. The participants in national welfare and, indeed, to the survival this conference expressed conviction that of the human race. President Eisenhower such a new atmosphere had been created. has said: "There is no longer any alterna- Many commentators agreed with them at tive to peace," and nine eminent scientists, the time. It was said, however, that, with led by Bertrand Russell and Albert Ein- the subsequent foreign ministers conference, stein, have declared: "All, equally, are in the atmosphere deteriorated. peril, and, if the peril is understood, there The questions may'be asked: What does is hope that they may collectively avert it." one mean by a "better atmosphere" in inter- The conference at the summit which met national relations? What is the evidence at Geneva in July, 1955, was concerned establishing it? How much did the atmos- 315 94 CURRENT RESEARCH phere improve? These questions are at the 2. The Project heart of international relations, and the It is proposed to establish a center for sound conduct of foreign policy depends collecting and analyzing current informa- upon the answers. But if answers are at- tion on international relations 'and to pre- tempted, they are usually vague and sub- sent this material in narrative, statistical, jective. and graphical form in an annual publication The atmosphere of international rela- which might be called "The World Intelli- tions, like the weather, is a complex of gence Yearbook." The word "intelligence" many factors, but students of international carries the dual meaning of information, as relations have not been so successful as in military intelligence, and of rational ac- meteorologists in analyzing these factors tion in contrast to action directed by igno- and ascertaining their relations. The evi- rance, emotion, or prejudice. 'M dence for change is largely the subjective The purpose of such a publication would reaction of statesmen who meet one an- be to inform and enlighten the public by other or the subjective feeling of corre- presenting and analyzing factual material spondents and commentators conveyed to indicating the changing atmosphere of the public. International relations has no world opinion, the changing condition of thermometers, barometers, humidity meas- world politics, and the alternatives available urers, charts of wind velocity, or records of and the probable consequences of adopting precipitation, such as provide evidence of each in the decisions which have to be the physical atmosphere superior to that made by governments and international or- provided by the individual's feeling of heat, ganizations. Such a publication should also cold, and humidity and his observations of be of value to national governments and in- clouds, rain, and wind. People assume that ternational organizations themselves, al- the atmosphere of international relations is though such agencies normally have sources at any moment getting better or worse with of information and competent analysts more or less rapidity, but few would at- which, on the surface, would appear to be tempt to present accurate measurements of superior to those available to the proposed these changes from day to day. center. In 1800 Lamarck, working with Laplace A private center, however, would have a and Lavoisier, began publication of the number of advantages in informing both series of "Annuaire m6t6orologiques," and the public and the governments. It would this was the pioneer of weather mapping. A not be limited by the necessity to support periodical mapping of the atmosphere of in- an established policy, as are government ternational relations in the different areas of agencies. It could select a staff which the world, indicating the degree of change, would be less influenced by the prejudices would be of great value both in the under- of party, nation, and local community than standing of international relations by are political agencies. It could be less in- peoples and in the practical conduct of for- hibited in publication and research than are eign policy by governments. the staffs of international organizations. The It is believed that the scientific study of limitations of authority and the dependence international relations has advanced to a for support upon many governments impose point making practicable the initiation of extreme prudence on the activities of such such a mapping and its presentation in an organizations, especially in studying such annual publication. subjects as the atmosphere and tensions of I CONFLICT RESOLUTIQO VOLUME I NUMBER 1 316 .CURRENT RESEARCH 95 international relations. Furthermore, gov- World War II, had, as its first purpose, "To ernmental agencies, whether national or in- develop the world community's awareness ternational, must confine themselves to of itself so that eventually a world order studies immediately relevant to their pri- may be evolved in which races, nations and mary function of making decisions. They cultural associations may be harmonized, cannot examine the entire field of interna- thus reducing strife without eliminating tional relations in a scientific spirit as could variety." a private center. The World Intelligence Yearbook should Because of these advantages, an endowed help to make the world community aware private agency can be in a better position of itself. than official agencies to present objective The "world commmunity" is a vast, com- and impartial information on international plicated, and varied group, manifesting as relations and to analyze it in such a way as much of conflict as of co-operation. It is a to enlighten world public opinion. The ca- community only in the sense that there is pacity to do so would depend, of course, some communication among its important upon the qualifications of the personnel of groups and that, consequently, the action the center. of each is influenced to some extent by its There are many yearbooks, such as the opinion of the others. These opinions are Annual Register, the Statesmen Yearbook, often at variance with the facts, because of the United Nations Yearbook, the United the inadequate "intelligence" and the biases Nations Statistical Yearbook, the United Na- of governments and peoples. While the in- tions Demographic Yearbook, the United formation and analyses available to the gov- Nations World Economic Report, and the ernments are usually better than those United Nations Human Rights Yearbook. available to the people, it often happens These provide much useful information, that in democracies governments cannot uti- but, if political, it is usually merely descrip- lize their better "intelligence" because the I tive and not quantitative. If quantitative, it people insist on policies which correspond I is usually economic or social but not polit- with what they believe. The major problem 1 ical. Undoubtedly, much of the quantita- is, therefore, to make the beliefs of people tive information of the latter type has great correspond more closely to reality, that is, political significance, but this is usually not to make the world community more aware brought to the reader's attention. What is of itself. needed is a quantification of political and Progress in the solution of this problem psychological conditions and trends. The involves (1) a more adequate theory of in- significant variables contributing to the in- ternational relations, to indicate which of all ternational atmosphere should be identi- the myriad events and conditions of the 600a1V-9-0B~1Ei~~j1~surcysyi44*6& Gasb fied and their changes presented. A com- rapidly changing world are most important S^o^«- petently prepared "World Intelligence to know; (2) continuous investigation, to SO_ Yearbook" would seem to fill a definite ascertain these facts; and (3) continuous need. publication, to present them in such a way that they can be read and their significance 3. Importance easily understood in the busy life of deci- The World Citizen's Association, which sion-making officials and of the average citi- functioned for a decade before and after zen. 317 96 CURRENT RESEARCl 4. Theoretical Foundations done much in the field. The significance of During the past generation great ad- communication, opinions, and attitudes vances have been made toward a theory of upon policy in the international field is be- international relations capable of empirical coming better understood, and a theory of and quantitative verification. A study of international relations has developed sufi- war carried on at the University of Chicago ciently to provide a basis for selecting events from 1926 to 1942 and resulting in two and plotting trends significant for interna. published volumes entitled A Study of War tional relations. Changing conditions of in- (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, dividual and group attention, attitude, and 1942) did a pioneering work in this field. opinion; of national policy and power; and The Harris Institute publications, especially of international atmosphere, distances, and that entitled The World Community