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Appendix E-2 Aircraft Individual Risk Analysis

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Appendix E-2 Aircraft Individual Risk Analysis Report No. 17-952 Aircraft Individual Risk Analysis for Claremont Commons and Nearby Sites Job No. 952 Prepared by 2790 Skypark Dr., Suite 310 Torrance, CA 90505 for submission to: City of Claremont City of Upland July 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 6 2. SITE LOCATION .............................................................................................................. 7 3. CABLE AIRPORT OPERATIONS ................................................................................ 10 3.1 Number of Annual Operations by Aircraft Type ................................................. 10 3.2 Number of Annual Operations by Runway ......................................................... 16 4. CABLE AIRPORT ACCIDENT HISTORY ................................................................... 18 5. AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT RATES ................................................................................... 22 6. DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENTS ................................................................................ 23 6.1 Probability of Impact Given an Accident Occurrence ......................................... 23 7. PROPERTY IMPACT PROBABILITIES ...................................................................... 28 8. BUILDING OCCUPANCY............................................................................................. 36 9. RISK TO BUILDING OCCUPANTS ............................................................................. 39 9.1 Occupied Building Casualty Potential ................................................................. 39 10. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION.............................................................................. 42 11. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 43 Appendix A: Debris Field Coordinates for Site Locales Appendix B: Conditional Probability of Aircraft Impact by Locale Appendix C: Occupancy Analysis Appendix D: Aircraft Impact Studies Performed by ACTA Claremont Commons 2 ACTA Inc Cable Airport Aircraft Impact Study July 2017 ACTA Report 17-952 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Claremont Commons Site – Claremont-Upland, California ...................................... 7 Figure 2-2. Claremont Commons Specific Plan Site .................................................................... 8 Figure 2-3. Claremont Commons Site and the Cable Airport Runway ........................................ 9 Figure 3-1. California Operations Trend .................................................................................... 13 Figure 3-2. Local Number of Operations Trend ......................................................................... 14 Figure 4-1. Locations of Plane Crashes Related to Cable Airport since 1990 ........................... 20 Figure 6-1. General Aviation Accident Distribution Contours of Arrival Accidents ................. 24 Figure 6-2. General Aviation Accident Distribution Contours of Departure Accidents ............ 25 Figure 6-3. Typical Impact Scatter Plot for Aircraft Departure Accidents ................................. 27 Figure 7-1. Defining Locale Coordinates Based on 1 Acre Debris Field for Reference Buildings on Claremont Commons Site ........................................................................................... 29 Figure 7-2. Example of Coordinate Measurements that Define Potential Impact Locations on the Site With Respect to Runway 6-24 .................................................................................. 30 Figure 7-3. Properties on which impact probabilities were computed ....................................... 31 Figure 7-4. Reference Buildings and Locales 1-4 for Site 1 ....................................................... 32 Figure 7-5. Reference Buildings and Locales 1 and 2 for Site 2 ................................................ 32 Figure 7-6. Reference Building and Locale 1 and Locale 2 for Site 3 ....................................... 33 Figure 7-7. Reference Building and Locale 1 and Locale 2 for Site 4 ....................................... 33 Figure 7-8. Reference Building and Locale 1 and Locale 2 for Site 5 ....................................... 34 Claremont Commons 3 ACTA Inc Cable Airport Aircraft Impact Study July 2017 ACTA Report 17-952 LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1. FAA TAF Estimate of Annual Operations for Cable Airport – Calendar Years 1990 – 2017 [2] ............................................................................................................................ 11 Table 3-2. Cable Airport Master Plan Estimate of Operations between 2009 – 2015 [1] .......... 12 Table 3-3. Number of Daily Operations Collected ..................................................................... 12 Table 3-4. Rate of Increase/Decline in Annual Number of Operations ...................................... 14 Table 3-5. ACTA Estimates of Annual Operations at Cable Airport Using Statewide and Local Exponential Rates ............................................................................................................ 15 Table 3-6. ACTA Estimated Number of Operations at Cable Airport by Aircraft Gross Takeoff Weight for 2017 ............................................................................................................... 16 Table 3-7. ACTA Estimated Cable Airport Operations by Runway Designation for 2017 ....... 17 Table 4-1. Aircraft Accidents Attributed to Cable Airport (January 1990 to March 2017) ....... 19 Table 4-2. Description of Accident History Related to Cable Airport ....................................... 21 Table 5-1. Aircraft Accident Rates per Operation, Cable Airport, 1990-2016 ........................... 22 Table 7-1. Debris Field Dimensions Corresponding to Maximum Aircraft Takeoff Weight .... 28 Table 7-2. Annual Probability of at Least Minor Building Impact ............................................. 35 Table 8-1. Occupancy Statistics Summary ................................................................................. 37 Table 8-2. Operation Occurrence by Time Period at Cable Airport [1], [11] ............................ 38 Table 8-3. Building Occupancy Over a 24-hour Period ............................................................. 38 Table 9-1. Severity Classification for Proposed Downtown Addition ....................................... 39 Table 9-2. Conditional Probability of Consequence Given an Aircraft Impact ......................... 39 Table 9-3. Annual Severe Risk by Aircraft Type ....................................................................... 40 Table 9-4. Summary of Individual Risk by Time of Day ........................................................... 41 Claremont Commons 4 ACTA Inc Cable Airport Aircraft Impact Study July 2017 ACTA Report 17-952 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Cable Airport is a small, non-towered, privately owned general aviation airport that is predominately used by single-engine aircraft. The Airport is located in the city of Upland, California; it has operated since 1945. Approximately a quarter mile to the south west is the site of the future Claremont Commons Development, which will be a mixed-use residential community located on both sides of the border between the City of Claremont and the City of Upland. Methodology: This report was prepared to analyze the potential for an aircraft accident that could result in casualties to persons residing on the proposed development. The potential for an accident causing a casualty on Claremont Commons was determined by estimating the likelihood of an accident occurring, and, given such an event, estimating the likelihood of injury to a resident. Accident rates were developed using annual operations data and the historical record of accidents in the vicinity of the Airport. Impact location likelihoods were computed based on state-wide data gathered by the Institute of Transportation Studies. The probability of impact for each of the sites was then combined with the probability of a consequence to determine risk. Risk values were segmented by time periods during a 24-hour day to include probabilities of building occupancy and operational frequency. Concluding Remarks: This analysis determined that the annual maximum risk of a severe injury to an occupant of Claremont Commons is 2.7x10-5, which is equivalent to 27 chances in 1 million. To provide perspective, the annual risk of a person being injured in a car accident is approximately 7 x10-3, or 7,000 chances in 1 million, based on statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Car travel is therefore more than 250 times riskier than the potential for injury due to an aircraft accident on Claremont Commons. This report also compares the individual risk for the Claremont Commons site with 5 other airport- adjacent sites developed with commercial and residential uses. The Claremont Commons property presents the lowest individual risk among the sites analyzed. (See table below). The likelihood of building occupancy and the proximity of a building to the Airport runway are the factors that have the largest impact on risk. Commercial sites generally have somewhat higher risk than residential sites because the likelihood of occupancy is higher during the periods of the day when airport operations
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