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The Power of Newly Naturalized Citizens in the 2020 Elections: New American Voters

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The Power of Newly Naturalized Citizens in the 2020 Elections: New American Voters JUNE 2 0 2 0 THE POWER OF NEWLY NATURALIZED CITIZENS IN THE 2020 ELECTIONS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was written by Diego Iñiguez-López, Policy and Campaigns Manager for the National Partnership for New Americans (NPNA). Research was conducted by Abdelnasser Rashid, New American Voters 2020 Campaign Researcher for NPNA. Special thanks to those who contributed to the analysis, review, and editing of this report, including Abdelnasser Rashid; Nancy Flores, Deputy Director at NPNA; Sarah Mesick, Director of Programs at NPNA; and Joshua Hoyt, former Executive Director at NPNA. This report was designed and produced by Melissa Holguin Pineda, English as a Gateway Program Coordinator at NPNA. Many thanks for the generous support from the Wallace H. Coulter Foundation that has supported NPNA and its members’ work to expand naturalization programming and partnerships across the country. ABOUT THE NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP FOR NEW AMERICANS The National Partnership for New Americans is a national multiethnic, multiracial partnership. We represent the collective power and resources of the country’s 41 largest regional immigrant and refugee rights organizations in 37 states. Our members provide large-scale services—from Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals application processing to voter registration to health care enrollment—for their communities, and they combine service delivery with sophisticated organizing tactics to advance local and state policy. We exist to leverage their collective power and expertise for a national strategy. We believe America’s success is rooted in our ongoing commitment to welcoming and integrating newcomers into the fabric of our nation, and to upholding equality and opportunity as fundamental American values. To learn more about the National Partnership for New Americans, visit partnershipfornewamericans.org. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Newly naturalized citizens in ten states have the power to elect the next President of the United States. In these states--Michigan, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas--when compared to the margin of victory for the 2016 presidential election, New American Voters have the largest likelihood of tipping the scale and being the decider of who will occupy the White House for the next four years. This multi-racial, multi-generational, and slightly majority- women group of naturalized citizens represent a potential voting bloc that can also decide who controls the U.S. Senate by voting in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Maine, Michigan and Georgia. These potential voters are a substantial but only part of the larger group of new citizens who have naturalized since 2014. By the time of the 2020 presidential and Senate elections, they can total an estimated 5.3 million. However, the critical factor for newly naturalized citizens to use this political power and impact is registration and turnout. Newly naturalized citizens have lower voter registration and turnout rates than U.S.-born citizens.¹ This means that voter mobilization efforts specifically targeting recently naturalized citizens are necessary. This is why the National Partnership for New Americans, a coalition of 41 immigrant and refugee rights organizations, is launching the New American Voters 2020 campaign with its member organizations and national partners. The campaign will encourage newly naturalized citizens to register and vote by strategically targeting them, especially in politically important states where they reside in large numbers. It will do this in culturally sophisticated ways like partnerships with ethnic media, digital and social media advertisements, public service announcements, working with mayors and cities, and recruiting celebrities, cultural figures, and influencers to get the message out to newly naturalized citizens. 1. Budiman, Abby, et al., "Naturalized Citizens Make Up Record One-in-Ten U.S. Eligible Voters in 2020," Pew Research Center, February 26, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/02/26/naturalized-citizens-make-up-record-one-in-ten-u-s-eligible-voters-in-2020/; Wang, Tova Andrea and Youjin B. Kim, "From Citizenship to Voting: Improving Registration for New Americans," Demos, December 19, 2011, https://www.demos.org/research/citizenship-voting-improving-registration-newamericans. 3 KEY FINDINGS Newly naturalized citizens are a potential voting block of over 5 million that is multi-racial, multi-generational, and are composed of a slight majority of women. Large numbers of the estimated 5.3 million new citizens, 3.1 million of which naturalized after the election of Donald Trump, have responded to the Trump administration’s multiple attacks on immigrant and refugee communities by naturalizing. Almost 70 percent (68.44 percent) of citizens who naturalized from 2014 to 2018 are originally from Latin American and Asian and Pacific Islander countries and almost 90 percent (88.24 percent) are from countries in Latin America, Asia and Pacific Islands, Africa, the Middle East, and the Caribbean. The majority of newly naturalized citizens are women (55.6 percent). Roughly one third of newly naturalized citizens (32.6 percent) were 18 to 34 years old when they naturalized, another rough one third (36.5 percent) were 35 to 49 years old, and the last, almost one third (30.9 percent) were 50 years old and above. If they vote, they can sway the outcome of the upcoming Presidential and Senate elections, future midterms elections, and elections of state and local seats, especially in politically important states like Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Texas, Colorado, Maine, Virginia, and New Mexico, among others. In Florida, for example, the largest number of naturalized citizens from 2014 to 2018 in Florida, those originally from Cuba, were larger than the margin of victory during the 2016 presidential election. The next, largest groups of naturalized citizens, those originally from Haiti, Colombia, Jamaica, Venezuela, and Mexico, combined, are larger than the 2016 margin of victory. In Michigan, the number of citizens from Iraq who naturalized from 2014 to 2018 alone is larger than the 2016 Presidential margin of victory. The number of newly naturalized citizens from 2014 to 2018 is larger than the 2016 margins of victory for the President in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Their numbers near the margin of victory in Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The number of newly naturalized citizens from 2014 to 2018 are larger than the margins of victory for Senate seats that are up for re-election in 2020 in North Carolina and Virginia. Their numbers near margins of victory in New Hampshire and Colorado. They can also sway the outcome of hotly contested elections in Arizona and Maine. While newly naturalized citizens are a potential voting bloc, voter mobilization efforts specifically targeting them, and the diverse groups represented by new citizens, are needed in order for all of their votes to be cast. 4 METHODOLOGY This report is based on U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data on naturalizations that occurred from Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 through FY 2018 and naturalization applications that the agency approved in FY 2019.² The estimates for naturalizations during FY 2020 is based on previous spikes in naturalizations in FY 2016, before that calendar year’s presidential election.³ “Newly naturalized citizens” are defined as those who have naturalized since FY 2014. “New American Voters” are defined as those who have naturalized since FY 2014 and can subsequently register to vote. Being based on USCIS data, this report and its tables separate the region where newly naturalized citizens are originally from, or race, by Latin America, Asia and the Pacific Islands, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Caribbean. The one exception is Table 10, which is based on the United Census Bureau and its American Community Survey, which separates the regions of birth for newly naturalized citizens in counties with over 1,000 naturalized citizens by Latin American, Asian, African, European, Oceania, and North America.⁴ Table 10 covers the time period of 2013 through 2017. All of the tables referenced throughout this report and additional tables can be found in the addendum. The New American Voters Impact Model in Tables 8 and 18 calculates what are the most “politically important states” based on six factors: (1) the newly naturalized from 2014 to 2018 as a multiple of the state’s 2016 presidential vote margin; (2) the average presidential election margin (in 2008, 2012, and 2016); (3) group density; (4) the presence of a competitive U.S. Senate race; (5) the presence of a competitive gubernatorial race; and (6) the presence of a competitive race for control of state legislative chambers.⁵ All of these factors are multiplied by each other in order to arrive at a raw score. That raw score is standardized on a 1 to 99 scale, as seen in Table 18. The 15 highest scoring states are represented in Table 8 and are termed “politically important states” throughout this report. A more in-depth explanation of the model factors can be found in the addendum. 2. See “Naturalizations,” U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, accessed June 8, 2020, https://www.dhs.gov/immigration- statistics/naturalizations; “Immigration and Citizenship Data,” U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, accessed June 8, 2020, https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-n-400-application-naturalization.
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