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East African Monsoon Variability Since the Last Glacial

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East African Monsoon Variability Since the Last Glacial Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät Universität Potsdam East African monsoon variability since the last glacial Kumulative Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades doctor rerum naturalium (Dr. rer. nat.) eingereicht an der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam von Christian Wolff Potsdam, Juli 2011 Principal supervisor: Prof. Dr. Gerald H. Haug Universität Potsdam - DFG Leibniz Center for Surface Process and Climate Studies ETH Zürich - Geologisches Institut Co-supervisors: Prof. Dr. Dirk Verschuren Ghent University - Department of Biology, Research group Limnology Prof. Dr. Achim Brauer Universität Potsdam Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Published online at the Institutional Repository of the University of Potsdam: URL http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2012/5807/ URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58079 http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58079 In East Africa, rainfall is never right – there is either too much or too little! Table of contents Abstract i Zusammenfassung ii Acknowledgement iii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Structure of the thesis 1 1.2 Lake Challa 3 1.2.1 Location - Modern climate conditions 3 1.2.2 Lake Challa sediments 6 1.3 Objectives of this thesis – How to read a Prehistoric Rain Gauge? 8 2 Modern seasonality in Lake Challa (Kenya/Tanzania) and its sedimentary documentation in recent lake sediments 9 3 Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age 27 4 Seasonality in precipitation and evaporation for the last 25,000 years revealed by oxygen isotope records from Mount Kilimanjaro 43 5 Lake Challa sediments - Variations of East African wind and rainfall intensities over the past 25,000 years 51 6 Summary 61 6.1 Synthesis 61 6.2 Sediment trap samples 61 6.3 El Niño Southern Oscillation 62 6.4 The last 25,000 years 64 6.5 Quo Vadis? – East African climate in the future 64 6.6 Conclusion 66 7 References 67 8 Appendix I Abstract Abstract The impact of global warming on human water resources is attracting increasing attention. No other region in this world is so strongly affected by changes in water supply than the tropics. Especially in Africa, the availability and access to water is more crucial to existence (basic livelihoods and economic growth) than anywhere else on Earth. In East Africa, rainfall is mainly influenced by the migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with more rain and floods during El Niño and severe droughts during La Niña. The forecasting of East African rainfall in a warming world requires a better understanding of the response of ENSO-driven variability to mean climate. Unfortunately, existing meteorological data sets are too short or incomplete to establish a precise evaluation of future climate. From Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, we report records from a laminated lake sediment core spanning the last 25,000 years. Analyzing a monthly cleared sediment trap confirms the annual origin of the laminations and demonstrates that the varve-thicknesses are strongly linked to the duration and strength of the windy season. Given the modern control of seasonal ITCZ location on wind and rain in this region and the inverse relation between the two, thicker varves represent windier and thus drier years. El Niño (La Niña) events are associated with wetter (drier) conditions in east Africa and decreased (increased) surface wind speeds. Based on this fact, the thickness of the varves can be used as a tool to reconstruct a) annual rainfall b) wind season strength, and c) ENSO variability. Within this thesis, I found evidence for centennial- scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake-sediment data, indicating that a future Indian Ocean warming will enhance East Africa’s hydrological cycle and its interannual variability in rainfall. Furthermore, I compared geochemical analyses from the sediment trap samples with a broad range of limnological, meteorological, and geological parameters to characterize the impact of sedimentation processes from the in-situ rocks to the deposited sediments. As a result an excellent calibration for existing µXRF data from Lake Challa over the entire 25,000 year long profile was provided. The climate development during the last 25,000 years as reconstructed from the Lake Challa sediments is in good agreement with other studies and highlights the complex interactions between long-term orbital forcing, atmosphere, ocean and land surface conditions. My findings help to understand how abrupt climate changes occur and how these changes correlate with climate changes elsewhere on Earth. Zusammenfassung Zusammenfassung Änderungen des Klimas in einer sich erwärmenden Erde haben große Auswirkungen auf den globalen und lokalen Wasserhaushalt und rücken anhand starker Extremereignisse immer häufiger in den Fokus der Öffentlichkeit. Besonders die Regionen der Tropen sind von derartigen Einschnitten stark gefährdet. Der jährliche Niederschlag in Ostafrika ist stark mit der saisonalen Wanderung der ITCZ (Innertropischen Konvergenzzone) sowie mit dem El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phänomen verbunden. Extreme Regenfälle und Überschwemmungen während El Niño Jahren stehen Trockenheit und Dürren in La Niña Jahren gegenüber. Prognosen über zukünftige Veränderungen der ostafrikanischen Niederschläge erfordern ein verbessertes Verständnis der ENSO antreibenden Faktoren. Unglücklicherweise sind die vorhandenen meteorologischen Datenreihen nicht lang genug oder besitzen nicht die benötigte Homogenität. Einen hilfreichen Beitrag können jährlich geschichtete Seesedimente des am Fuße des Kilimandscharo gelegenen Lake Challa leisten. Anhand einer monatlich aufgelösten Sedimentfalle konnte ich nachweisen, dass die rund 25.000 Jahre zurückreichenden Sedimente eine jährliche Struktur besitzen sowie die Dicke dieser jährlichen Schichtung (Warve) stark mit der Dauer und Intensität der saisonal windreichen/trockenen Jahreszeit verbunden ist. Dickere Warven repräsentieren windige/trockene Jahre, wohingegen dünnere Warven für windschwache und feuchte Jahre stehen. Stärkere Winde und kaum Niederschläge treten oft im Zusammenhang mit einem La Niña Ereignis in Ostafrika auf, wohingegen während eines El Niño Ereignisses häufig extreme Niederschläge mit wenig Wind zu beobachten sind. Anhand der Vermessung der Warven kann man verschiedene Klimaparameter rekonstruieren: a) den jährlichen Niederschlag b) jährliche Windgeschwindigkeiten und ihre Intensitäten sowie c) ENSO Variabilitäten. Die in meiner Arbeit gewonnenen klimatischen Informationen zeigen starke Änderungen der ENSO Variabilität innerhalb der letzten 3.000 Jahre mit starken Unterschieden während der Kleinen Eiszeit und während der Mittelalterlichen Warmzeit sowie deutlich trockene und windige Bedingungen mit sehr geringen ENSO Aktivitäten im glazialem Zeitraum (18.500 und 21.000 Jahren). Modellberechnungen unterstützen diese Ergebnisse einer Zunahme von Extremereignissen und feuchteren Bedingungen im Zuge einer Erwärmung des Indischen Ozeans. Mittels geochemischer Analysen der Sedimentfallenproben sowie die daraus resultierende Verknüpfung mit limnologischen und meteorologischen Parametern, konnte ich einen entscheidenden Beitrag zur erfolgreichen Interpretation der existierenden 25.000 Jahre langen µXRF Datensätze leisten. Der Anteil an allochthonem und autochthonem Eintrag kann so genau klassifiziert werden. Das dadurch gewonnene Bild der Klimaentwicklung der letzten 25.000 Jahre deckt sich hervorragend mit anderen Studien und ermöglicht Einblicke in das komplexe Zusammenspiel zwischen Ozean-Atmosphäre und Umwelt auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent. Besonders die für die Ostafrikaforschung extrem hohe Auflösung der Daten wird helfen, die abrupten Klimawechsel und Interaktionen besser verstehen zu können. ii Acknowledgement Acknowledgement This research was financed by the European Science Foundation (ESF) funded CHALLACEA project, a fellowship from the German Research Foundation (DFG) Graduate School GRK 1364 “Shaping Earth’s Surface in a Variable Environment”, and the Leibniz Center for Earth Surface Process and Climate Studies at the University of Potsdam. First of all, I would like to thank Gerald H. Haug for making this project possible and his permanent willingness to support and advice my research. He guided and encouraged me in every possible way and helped me to see my work from a bigger point of view. I thank the coordinator of the CHALLACEA project Dirk Verschuren to support me during the first field season on the African continent and many stimulating discussions. I will always remember the hot sunny day without sun protection we spent together in a small boat on Lake Challa. In this respect, I would like to thank all members of the CHALLACEA project and all people who helped me with the organization and logistics of my field-work in Kenya, especially Caxton M. Oluseno. Without your straightforward and friendly help this thesis would not be possible. This thesis would not exist without the indefatigable assignments of all Co-authors on numerous manuscript discussions. Thanks a lot. Accordingly, I would like to acknowledge
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