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Investor Presentation January-December

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Investor Presentation January-December Metsä Board Corporation Investor presentation January – December 2018 Contents This is Metsä Board 3 Main contributors in Metsä Board’s profitability 15 Operating environment and demand drivers 21 Results for Q4 and FY 2018 26 Sustainability and product safety 38 Research and Development 51 Owners and management 61 Contact information 64 Investor presentation 2 1–12/2018 Investment highlights of Metsä Board Sales split Sales split • We are pure-play paperboard company by product by market area focused on premium fresh fibre Market APAC Folding 8 % paperboards pulp boxboard 18 % 56 % • Global trends, e.g. sustainability and urbanization drive the demand for Americas FY 2018: 19 % FY 2018: EMEA ecological and lightweight packaging EUR 1,944m EUR 1,944m 74 % • We have a strong market position … White kraftlainer • … and good control of wood raw 26 % material and self-sufficiency in pulp Our total paperboard capacity is 2m tonnes/year of which 1/3 are white kraftliners and Investor presentation 3 1–12/2018 2/3 folding boxboard Our light, pure and safe paperboards have various end-uses… Folding boxboards Food service boards White kraftliners Packaging solutions for Solutions for food service Retail-ready tray and consumer goods point-of-sale solutions … and we have a broad customer base BRAND OWNERS CONVERTERS CORRUGATED BOX MANUFACTURERS MERCHANTS FOLDING BOXBOARD WHITE KRAFTLINERS Investor presentation 5 1–12/2018 Global trends driving the demand for fresh fibre paperboards Globalisation & Sustainability Food safety E-commerce urbanisation We use only We have good Our paperboards We offer renewable fresh control of raw offer a strong recyclable fibres from materials, which promotion and products that are sustainably guarantees purity branding ideal for the managed and safety in food experience circular economy northern forests contact uses We have a leading position in Europe in our main products Folding boxboard White kraftliner • Regional sales split of in Europe in Europe paperboard deliveries: Total capacity 3.8m tonnes Total capacity 2.1m tonnes • 70% EMEA • 23% Americas Others Metsä Others Metsä • 7% APAC Board #5 Board #1 #1 • In APAC we focus on high- #5 quality FBB segment #4 35% 32% • We are the largest European #4 importer of FBB to US #3 • We are #1 in coated white #3 #2 #2 kraftliners globally Investor presentation 7 1–12/2018 We have good control of wood raw materials, from forests to pulp and board production • High availability of northern wood • Consistent quality of fibres that are tailor-made for the end products METSÄ GROUP METSÄLIITTO COOPERATIVE Group’s parent company, owned by 104,000 Finnish forest owners METSÄ METSÄ METSÄ METSÄ METSÄ FOREST FIBRE WOOD BOARD TISSUE Wood supply and Pulp and sawn Wood products Paperboard Tissue and forest services timber cooking papers METSÄ BOARD OWNS 24.9% Through Metsä Fibre’s ownership Metsä Board’s annual net pulp balance is Investor presentation 8 1–12/2018 600,000 tonnes long in 2019 Our production is close to our main raw material Total paperboard capacity: Our net balance in pulp in 2019, Folding boxboard (FBB): 1,345,000 t/a including the 24.9% ownership in White kraftliner (WKL): 675,000 t/a Metsä Fibre, is 600,000 t/a Wood sourced from Finland, Sweden, Kemi Baltics and Russia. Äänekoski 425,000 t/a WKL 255,000 t/a FBB 610,000 t/a Pulp* 1.3 million t/a Pulp* Husum, SWE Simpele 400,000 t/a FBB 290,000 t/a FBB 250,000 t/a WKL 730,000 t/a Pulp Kaskinen Joutseno 370,000 t/a BCTMP 330,000 t/a BCTMP 690,000 t/a Pulp Kyro Tako 190,000 t/a FBB 210,000 t/a FBB *Metsä Fibre mill Investor presentation 9 1–12/2018 We have been growing well above average market growth rate during past years … Metsä Board’s annual paperboard deliveries, CAGR 2013–2017: 12% 2 000 1 500 Annual global demand growth for 1 000 folding boxboard and white kraftliner 1,000 1,000 tonnes is estimated to be 500 3% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 White kraftliner Folding boxboard Source: Metsä Board´s own research Investor presentation 1–12/2018 …driven by capacity increases Capital expenditure and depreciation Investments in growth during 2011–2018: 180 2018 New baling line in Kaskinen BCTMP mill: 30,000 new BCTMP capacity 150 New sheeting line in Äänekoski (to be in 120 production 9/2019) 90 2017 New extrusion coating line in Husum: 100,000 t/a PE coating capacity EUR million 60 2015–16 New folding boxboard production line in 30 Husum: 400,000 t/a of FBB and linerboard production line conversion: 250,000 t/a of 0 WKL 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2011–12 Debottlenecking in Simpele, Äänekoski and Maintenance capex Growth capex Kyro mills: total 150,000 t/a of FBB Depreciation Investor presentation 11 1–12/2018 In medium term, we aim for moderate growth with a strong focus on profitability Financial targets: Annual growth in total Comparable ROCE, % Net debt / paperboard deliveries, % Target > 12% comparable EBITDA Target is to exceed the relevant market Target < 2.5x growth, 3% / year 15% 14,4 2,0 13% 1,8 12% 11,3 11,2 10% 9,1 8,1 1,2 1,2 1,0 2% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dividend policy We aim to distribute at least 50% of our Investor presentation 12 result for the financial period in annual dividends 1–12/2018 We have created shareholder value with focused strategy CAGR in dividend +30% Dividend, EUR and payout ratio, % in 2012–2018 Enterprise value, EUR million 0,30 100% 3500 0,25 3000 75% 0,20 2500 0,15 50% 2000 1500 0,10 25% 1000 0,05 500 0,00 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dividend, EUR Dividend/EPS, % Market capitalization, EUR million Note! Year 2018 is a Board’s proposal to AGM to be held on 28 March. Net debt, EUR million Total distribution consists of a dividend of 0.10 and other distribution of equity of EUR 0.19 13 Investor presentation 1–12/2018 Our free cash flow weakened towards end of 2018 Free cash flow in EUR million and % of EBITDA • Free cash flow Comparable – Since 2016 improved FCF as a result of improved EUR million EBITDA 2018 % profitability, decreased capex and good working 200 EUR 344 million 80 capital discipline – FCF weakened towards end of the 2018 as a result 150 60 of higher capex in Q4 and increased inventories 100 40 – Result share from Metsä Fibre is a non-cash item • Our capital allocation in the near future 50 20 – Dividend: supported by good performance 0 0 – Capital structure: deleveraging continues to levels below 1.0x -50 -20 – CAPEX: return-based allocation (ROCE above 12%) -100 -40 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 FCF, EUR million FCF/EBITDA,% Investor presentation 14 FCF=Cash flow from operations after investments 1–12/2018 Main contributors in Metsä Board’s profitability Favourable price development in paperboards Market price development in Europe Sources: Fastmarkets RISI & Fastmarkets FOEX • Strong demand and limited supply in fresh fibre paperboards have led to increased EUR / tonne price levels 1200 • Metsä Board’s announced price increases in 1100 2018 1000 – FBB: Europe EUR 80/tonne, effective mainly from 2019. 900 – WKL: Twice in Europe and once in the 800 Americas 700 600 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Folding Boxboard White-top kraftliner Investor presentation 16 1–12/2018 Strong pulp market supported profitability in 2018 Pulp price (PIX) development in Europe • Higher production and delivery volumes Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd from Metsä Fibre supported Metsä Board’s result in 2018 USD ------ NBSK PIX Softwood ----- BHKP PIX Hardwood USD • In the long-term, pulp demand is supported by • Limited new capacity in the coming years • Restrictions on recycled paper imports in China • Metsä Board’s annual net position in pulp is roughly 600,000 tonnes long in 2019 Investor presentation 17 1–12/2018 We see cost inflation slowing down Metsä Board’s cost split in 2018 incl. 24.9% share from Metsä Fibre’s costs Cost Near-term outlook component Other fixed Wood Prices in Finland and Sweden are expected to remain 14 % stable. In the Baltics, the price level will depend on the Wood demand in export markets 28 % Logistics In line with general cost inflation Personnel 13 % Chemicals In line with or below general cost inflation Energy Stabilisation following the oil and electricity price hikes in Energy 2018 14 % Logistics Personnel Approximately +2% y-on-y, mainly based on collective 16 % agreements Chemicals 15 % Other fixed In line with or below general cost inflation Total costs in 2018: EUR 1.7 billion (2017: EUR 1.6 billion) Investor presentation 18 1–12/2018 We estimate that profit improvement from Husum is slightly higher than our previous estimates Estimated profitability improvement in 2019 vs. 2016 Original estimate in Achieved in New estimate in 2019 vs. 2016: 2018 vs. 2016: 2019 vs. 2016: EUR 100 million EUR 90 million EUR 110–120 million Our estimate is based on Initial estimate communicated in 2017 • Changed market environment since 2017 • Positive from market pulp prices and SEK/EUR • Negative from wood costs and USD/EUR • Estimated potential in 2019 through paperboard pricing of EUR 20–30 million • Gradual improvement potential also after 2019 Investor presentation 19 1–12/2018 Our main profit components and sensitivities Component Change Impact on EBIT Folding Price +/- 10% > EUR 100 million boxboard White Price +/- 10% > EUR 50 million kraftliners FX USD/EUR +/- 10% EUR 74 million Annual FX net transaction exposure is approximately EUR1.35 bn, of which 55% USD, 37% SEK and % GBP SEK/EUR +/- 10% EUR 50 million Pulp Pix price of SW/HW +/- 10% EUR 25 million per tonne Wood Price per m3 in +/-10% EUR 30 million* In 2018, Metsä Board sourced 5.5 million m3 wood, of which Finnish mills 37% from Sweden, 28% Finland, 20% Baltics and 15% Price per m3 in +/-10% EUR 20 million Russia.
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