Systems Engineering Approach to Ground Combat Vehicle Survivability in Urban Operations
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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2016-09 Systems engineering approach to ground combat vehicle survivability in urban operations Wong, Luhai Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/50510 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO GROUND COMBAT VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY IN URBAN OPERATIONS by Luhai Wong September 2016 Thesis Advisor: Christopher A. Adams Co-Advisor: Fotis A. Papoulias Second Reader: Joseph T. Klamo Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) September 2016 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO GROUND COMBAT VEHICLE N/A SURVIVABILITY IN URBAN OPERATIONS 6. AUTHOR(S) Luhai Wong 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER N/A 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER N/A 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12 a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12 b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Ground combat vehicles (GCV) traditionally rely on passive armor to reduce their vulnerability against threats. This is insufficient now, given the increasing gap between threat lethality and passive armor capability and the change in threat scenario from relatively open terrain to urban terrain. This thesis provides an overview of system survivability and discusses the conventional approach to GCV survivability. This thesis then uses a systems engineering approach to guide the subsequent study, which identifies likely threats to GCVs in an urban environment and discusses potential susceptibility reduction techniques and technologies that can counter the threats. This thesis then develops a survivability assessment model (using Imagine That’s ExtendSim), which quantifies the different survivability characteristics of a GCV and determines the sets of survivability characteristics to meet the defined survivability requirement. Finally, this thesis demonstrates the use of a decision-making methodology (multi-attribute decision-making) to manage the capability conflicts that arise between survivability and other key platform capabilities. Therefore, this author hopes to help military planners and engineers design more robust, holistic and balanced survivability solutions for GCVs, to provide more flexibility against different types of threats and threat scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF ground combat vehicle, survivability, susceptibility, vulnerability, urban operations PAGES 165 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH TO GROUND COMBAT VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY IN URBAN OPERATIONS Luhai Wong Senior Engineer, Defence Science & Technology Agency, Singapore B.S., University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, 2008 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2016 Approved by: Christopher A. Adams Thesis Advisor Fotis A. Papoulias Co-Advisor Joseph T. Klamo Second Reader Ronald E. Giachetti Chair, Department of Systems Engineering iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Ground combat vehicles (GCV) traditionally rely on passive armor to reduce their vulnerability against threats. This is insufficient now, given the increasing gap between threat lethality and passive armor capability and the change in threat scenario from relatively open terrain to urban terrain. This thesis provides an overview of system survivability and discusses the conventional approach to GCV survivability. This thesis then uses a systems engineering approach to guide the subsequent study, which identifies likely threats to GCVs in an urban environment and discusses potential susceptibility reduction techniques and technologies that can counter the threats. This thesis then develops a survivability assessment model (using Imagine That’s ExtendSim), which quantifies the different survivability characteristics of a GCV and determines the sets of survivability characteristics to meet the defined survivability requirement. Finally, this thesis demonstrates the use of a decision-making methodology (multi-attribute decision-making) to manage the capability conflicts that arise between survivability and other key platform capabilities. Therefore, this author hopes to help military planners and engineers design more robust, holistic and balanced survivability solutions for GCVs, to provide more flexibility against different types of threats and threat scenarios. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................1 B. RESEARCH QUESTIONS .......................................................................3 II. WHAT IS SYSTEM SURVIVABILITY? ...........................................................5 A. SUSCEPTIBILITY ....................................................................................5 B. VULNERABILITY ....................................................................................8 III. GROUND COMBAT VEHICLES AND THEIR CAPABILITIES ................11 A. MOBILITY ...............................................................................................12 B. LETHALITY ............................................................................................13 C. SURVIVABILITY ...................................................................................14 IV. GROUND COMBAT VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY ......................................17 A. SURVIVABILITY ONION .....................................................................17 1. Destroy Enemies Beyond Their Engagement Range ................18 2. Avoid Being Detected ...................................................................18 3. Avoid Being Engaged ...................................................................19 4. If Engaged, Avoid Being Hit .......................................................19 5. If Hit, Withstand Penetration .....................................................21 6. If Penetrated, Withstand Being Killed .......................................22 B. CONVENTIONAL APPROACH TO GROUND COMBAT VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY ................................................................24 V. URBAN OPERATIONS ......................................................................................27 A. IMPETUS .................................................................................................27 B. DESCRIPTION OF URBAN OPERATIONS .......................................27 1. Lack of Situational Awareness ...................................................29 2. Increased Signature .....................................................................30 3. Lack of Mobility ...........................................................................30 4. High Risk of Collateral Damage .................................................30 C. VIGNETTES OF ACTUAL URBAN OPERATIONS .........................31 1. Battle of Grozny ...........................................................................32 2. Operation Defensive Shield .........................................................32 VI. SYSTEMS ENGINEERING APPROACH .......................................................35 A. THREAT ANALYSIS .............................................................................36 vii B. PROBLEM DEFINITION ......................................................................37 C. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS ...............................................................37 1. Orchestrators and Regulators ....................................................37 2. Researchers and Developers .......................................................38 3. Opponents .....................................................................................38