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Dongfeng Motor Alert Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 31 March 2016 Buy Dongfeng Motor Company Update Asia Alert China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 30 Mar 2016 (HKD) 9.76 Automobiles & 0489.HK 489 HK HSI 0489 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 13.85 Components ADR Ticker ISIN 52-week range (HKD) 13.98 - 7.05 DNFGY US2577382037 HANG SENG INDEX 20,366 Analyst briefing takeaways Vincent Ha, CFA Fei Sun, CFA Research Analyst Research Analyst Dongfeng hosted a post-results conference call on 30 March. Key notes: (+852 ) 2203 6247 (+852 ) 2203 6130 - Industry sales forecast: Management expects China’s PV industry to grow 4- [email protected] [email protected] 6% in 2016 amid weak macro environment and purchase restriction. In addition, Dongfeng expects China’s PV market will continue to deliver an Stock data annual growth rate of about 6% for the next 2-5 years given low penetration. Market cap (HKDm) 84,093 - Sales target: Dongfeng set its FY16E sales target to 2.7m units of passenger Market cap (USDm) 10,841 vehicles (PV), representing about 7% YoY growth. Regarding the breakdown by brands, Dongfeng PSA, Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Honda, are Shares outstanding (m) 8,616.1 expected to register a 4%, 5% and 6% YoY growth to 0.74m, 1.05m and 0.43m Major shareholders Dongfeng Motor units, respectively. Meanwhile, Dongfeng Infiniti and own-brand Fengshen are (67%) expected to grow at a higher speed of 8% and 11% YoY to 27k and 112k units, Free float (%) 33 respectively. In addition, Dongfeng Renault targets to deliver 46k units of sales Avg daily value traded 17.2 in FY16. (USDm) - Commercial vehicle (CV): While Dongfeng recorded a loss at its CV segment Source: Deutsche Bank in FY15, management expects the CV segment to return to profit in FY16 despite muted sales growth. Key data - Updates on cooperation with PSA: The recovery at PSA (PEUP.PA, Buy, FYE 12/31 2014A 2015E 2016E EUR15.2) is faster than Dongfeng’s expectation. The first model based on the Sales (CNYm) 80,954 133,780 141,656 CMP platform (jointly developed by PSA and Dongfeng for the Peugeot, Net Profit 12,845.0 12,932.3 15,321.6 Citroen, and Dongfeng brand) is expected to be launched in 2019. (CNYm) - Inventory: By the end of March, combined inventory at both factory and DB EPS (CNY) 1.49 1.50 1.78 dealership level is at about 1.5-1.8 months for Dongfeng’s various PV units on PER (x) 6.4 5.5 4.6 average, reflecting an improvement over last year’s average. According to Yield (net) (%) 2.1 2.7 3.7 management, the target inventory level for Dongfeng’s various PV units is set Source: Deutsche Bank at 1.5-month on an annual basis on average. - Development of own-brand: The sales volume of Dongfeng’s own-brand Fengshen has reached 100k in FY15, supported by strong sales of SUV model AX7. Going forward, Dongfeng plans to launch more models with engine size ranging from 1.0L to 1.8L. - Dongfeng Getrag transmission: Dongfeng Getrag has completed plant construction in Wuhan, and the first batch products is expected to be mass manufactured soon. - Fuel consumption target: In order to meet government fuel consumption target by 2020, Dongfeng will 1) launch more new energy vehicles to balance the overall fuel consumption level; 2) upgrade new powertrains; and 3) develop hybrid vehicles. Deutsche Bank view – maintain Buy on attractive valuation We maintain Buy rating on Dongfeng as we believe the company’s lower-than- peer P/E valuation is attractive. With more new models across various brands and the sector stimulus policy, we expect Dongfeng’s sales and earnings to further pick up. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong The views expressed above accurately reflect the personal views of the authors about the subject companies and its(their) securities. The authors have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE VISIT http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/Disclosure.eqsr?ricCode=0489.HK MCI (P) 124/04/2015. .
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