Hong Kong Equity | Automobile Company in-depth Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (175 HK) ACCUMULATE Sales Rebound Following Mid-2019 Weak Performance Share Price Target Price Geely ranked No. 7 among Chinese auto makers in 2018, according to CAAM. HK$15.36 HK$16.7 Though Geely’s sales volume declined in 2Q2019, it has recovered gradually since 9/2019 and sold 143,234 units (+1.1%/10% YoY/MoM) in 11/2019. We believe the launch of 6-8 new models in 2020E and fuel vehicles sales pick-up in China may China / Automobile / Auto Maker continue to boost its sales volume. Combined with rising contribution from mid-to-high end vehicles to support ASP, we estimate 2020E profit to improve by 9 December 2019 26% YoY to RMB11.3 bn. We initiate Accumulate with TP of HK$16.7, suggesting 9% upside potential. Alison Ho (SFC CE:BHL697) Sales decline narrowed down: Geely sales dropped significantly in 2Q2019 & 3Q2019 (852) 3519 1291 mainly due to 1) the implementation of China VI vehicle emission standard from
[email protected] 1/Jul/2019 in some cities resulting in customers squeezing demand for new cars in 1H2019; 2) the uncertainties on relations between China and US; 3) economic downturn to drag consumer’s purchasing power. However, we saw Geely’s auto sales decline has Latest Key Data narrowed since 9/2019 and recorded a growth of 1.1% yoy in 11/2019. Under Total shares outstanding (mn) 9,146 consideration that December and January are regarded as the high season for auto sales, Market capitalization (HK$mn) 140,476 with customers traditionally making purchases before Chinese New Year, we therefore Enterprise value (HK$mn) 126,335 believe Geely’s auto sales growth will keep improving in the near future.