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Transition in Afghanistan: Views of Outside Experts

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Transition in Afghanistan: Views of Outside Experts i [H.A.S.C. No. 113–8] TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN: VIEWS OF OUTSIDE EXPERTS COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION HEARING HELD FEBRUARY 27, 2013 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 79–950 WASHINGTON : 2013 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Printing Office. Phone 202–512–1800, or 866–512–1800 (toll-free). E-mail, [email protected]. COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS HOWARD P. ‘‘BUCK’’ MCKEON, California, Chairman MAC THORNBERRY, Texas ADAM SMITH, Washington WALTER B. JONES, North Carolina LORETTA SANCHEZ, California J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia MIKE MCINTYRE, North Carolina JEFF MILLER, Florida ROBERT A. BRADY, Pennsylvania JOE WILSON, South Carolina ROBERT E. ANDREWS, New Jersey FRANK A. LOBIONDO, New Jersey SUSAN A. DAVIS, California ROB BISHOP, Utah JAMES R. LANGEVIN, Rhode Island MICHAEL R. TURNER, Ohio RICK LARSEN, Washington JOHN KLINE, Minnesota JIM COOPER, Tennessee MIKE ROGERS, Alabama MADELEINE Z. BORDALLO, Guam TRENT FRANKS, Arizona JOE COURTNEY, Connecticut BILL SHUSTER, Pennsylvania DAVID LOEBSACK, Iowa K. MICHAEL CONAWAY, Texas NIKI TSONGAS, Massachusetts DOUG LAMBORN, Colorado JOHN GARAMENDI, California ROBERT J. WITTMAN, Virginia HENRY C. ‘‘HANK’’ JOHNSON, JR., Georgia DUNCAN HUNTER, California COLLEEN W. HANABUSA, Hawaii JOHN FLEMING, Louisiana JACKIE SPEIER, California MIKE COFFMAN, Colorado RON BARBER, Arizona E. SCOTT RIGELL, Virginia ANDRE´ CARSON, Indiana CHRISTOPHER P. GIBSON, New York CAROL SHEA-PORTER, New Hampshire VICKY HARTZLER, Missouri DANIEL B. MAFFEI, New York JOSEPH J. HECK, Nevada DEREK KILMER, Washington JON RUNYAN, New Jersey JOAQUIN CASTRO, Texas AUSTIN SCOTT, Georgia TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois STEVEN M. PALAZZO, Mississippi SCOTT H. PETERS, California MARTHA ROBY, Alabama WILLIAM L. ENYART, Illinois MO BROOKS, Alabama PETE P. GALLEGO, Texas RICHARD B. NUGENT, Florida MARC A. VEASEY, Texas KRISTI L. NOEM, South Dakota PAUL COOK, California JIM BRIDENSTINE, Oklahoma BRAD R. WENSTRUP, Ohio JACKIE WALORSKI, Indiana ROBERT L. SIMMONS II, Staff Director ALEX GALLO, Professional Staff Member MICHAEL CASEY, Professional Staff Member AARON FALK, Clerk (II) C O N T E N T S CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF HEARINGS 2013 Page HEARING: Wednesday, February 27, 2013, Transition in Afghanistan: Views of Outside Experts .................................................................................................................. 1 APPENDIX: Wednesday, February 27, 2013 .............................................................................. 31 WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2013 TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN: VIEWS OF OUTSIDE EXPERTS STATEMENTS PRESENTED BY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS McKeon, Hon. Howard P. ‘‘Buck,’’ a Representative from California, Chair- man, Committee on Armed Services .................................................................. 1 Smith, Hon. Adam, a Representative from Washington, Ranking Member, Committee on Armed Services ............................................................................ 2 WITNESSES Barno, LTG David W., USA (Ret.), Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security .............................................................................. 8 Cordesman, Anthony H., Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies ................................................................... 11 Dale, Dr. Catherine, Specialist in International Security, Congressional Re- search Service ....................................................................................................... 3 Keane, GEN John M., USA (Ret.), Former Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army ........ 5 APPENDIX PREPARED STATEMENTS: Barno, LTG David W. ....................................................................................... 64 Cordesman, Anthony H. ................................................................................... 73 Dale, Dr. Catherine .......................................................................................... 39 Keane, GEN John M. ....................................................................................... 52 McKeon, Hon. Howard P. ‘‘Buck’’ .................................................................... 35 Smith, Hon. Adam ............................................................................................ 37 DOCUMENTS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD: [There were no Documents submitted.] WITNESS RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS ASKED DURING THE HEARING: [There were no Questions submitted during the hearing.] QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY MEMBERS POST HEARING: Mr. Langevin ..................................................................................................... 127 Ms. Speier ......................................................................................................... 129 (III) TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN: VIEWS OF OUTSIDE EXPERTS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC, Wednesday, February 27, 2013. The committee met, pursuant to call, at 10:00 a.m., in room 2118, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Howard P. ‘‘Buck’’ McKeon (chairman of the committee) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. HOWARD P. ‘‘BUCK’’ MCKEON, A REPRESENTATIVE FROM CALIFORNIA, CHAIRMAN, COM- MITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES The CHAIRMAN. The committee will come to order. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. The House Armed Services Committee meets today to receive testimony on the Transition in Afghanistan. Today we have with us Dr. Catherine Dale, General (Retired) Jack Keane, Lieutenant General (Retired) David Barno, and Mr. Anthony Cordesman. Thank you all for joining us here today and sharing your expertise. A discussion on our transition from Afghanistan should start with the reminder of why the United States went there in the first place. The most lethal and complex terrorist attack in U.S. history was plotted and perpetrated by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. But after over 10 years of war the American people are understandably war- weary. The United States has committed a wealth of resources in the form of both blood and treasure to preserve a U.S. vital na- tional security interest and prevent Afghanistan from being used again as a safe haven for terrorists. The question before us is whether or not we can continue to pre- vent Afghanistan from being used as such a sanctuary. The NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] mission officially ends Decem- ber 31st, 2014. Although we have not finalized the transition to Af- ghan security lead, President Obama already has announced with- drawal of half of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan, approximately 34,000 troops, by this time next year. In the near future the Presi- dent likely will order additional troop withdrawals and determine the United States post-2014 mission set and military posture in Af- ghanistan. In my view the President is not adequately evaluating the risk associated with rapid and large-scale troop withdrawals in terms of both local and regional consequences, as well as U.S. vital inter- ests. The President has decided to conduct the significant with- drawal of U.S. troops during the same time period that the Afghan security forces will be in the lead across the entire country for the first time. Moreover, the Administration does not have a discern- (1) 2 ible plan to reinforce the Afghan security forces if they cannot hold the gains and/or maintain the necessary security across the coun- try. Consequently the President’s approach is fraught with risk and lacks a comprehensive strategy to ensure the security and sov- ereignty of Afghanistan, and thereby U.S. interests over time. Rather, the President’s approach to Afghanistan appears to be ‘‘withdraw and hope.’’ I am not advocating for a never ending com- bat mission in Afghanistan, but the President should make deci- sions on troop withdrawals within the context of the security condi- tions on the ground, the capability and capacity of the ANSF [Af- ghan National Security Forces] and the required mission sets after December 31st, 2014. We owe nothing less to the victims on 9/11, the U.S. troops and their families who have served and sacrificed, and our sons and daughters who will have to return if we get this wrong. The simple justice that comes from that principled position cannot be overstated. I look forward to your testimony and insights into the transition and way forward for U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Mr. Smith. [The prepared statement of Mr. McKeon can be found in the Ap- pendix on page 35.] STATEMENT OF HON. ADAM SMITH, A REPRESENTATIVE FROM WASHINGTON, RANKING MEMBER, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES Mr. SMITH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I thank you for holding this hearing and bringing together such a distinguished panel of experts on this very important topic, and I also agree that the mis- sion in Afghanistan is very straightforward and clear. We were at- tacked by Al Qaeda and their organization which was based out of Afghanistan. We want to make sure that such an attack cannot emanate from that region ever again. We want to degrade Al Qaeda as much as possible and weaken their ability and the ability of any groups allied with them, and I think we have made consid- erable progress in that goal. I think the most notable example of that of course is getting Osama bin Laden but it is much, much deeper than that. The central structure of Al Qaeda has been large-
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