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Trade and Integration with CARICOM LIMITED LC/CAR/L.66 14 December 2005 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH THE COTONOU AGREEMENT SELECTED ISSUES, EFFECTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CARIBBEAN ECONOMIES This document has been reproduced without formal editing. Table of contents Executive summary..................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 4 2. The origins of the Cotonou agreement .............................................................................................. 5 3. The main traits of the Cotonou agreement ........................................................................................7 4. The protocols................................................................................................................................. 11 4.1 The sugar protocol...................................................................................................................11 4.1.1 .The background ..................................................................................................... 11 4.1.2 The proposed reform of the sugar protocol..............................................................12 4.1.3 The dependency of the Caribbean on sugar exports to the EU ................................. 16 4.2 The banana protocol .................................................................................................................18 4.2.1 The evolution of the banana regime .........................................................................18 4.2.2 Trends in banana exports .........................................................................................20 4.3 The rum protocol..................................................................................................................... 23 5. The negotiations between CARIFORUM and Europe ...................................................................25 5.1 The current status of the negotiations .....................................................................................25 5.2 The differences in vision underlying the EPA negotiations ....................................................26 6. Issues for non-independent Caribbean countries, territories and regions ...................................... 29 6.1 The outermost regions ............................................................................................................. 29 6.2. Overseas countries and territories ........................................................................................... 30 7. Trade trends between Europe and the CARICOM ......................................................................... 33 7.1 Trade flows in goods between CARICOM and the European Union ....................................33 7.2 A competitive analysis of CARICOM exports to Western Europe .......................................45 7.3. Trade flows in services between CARICOM and the European Union .................................47 8. The potential impact of the Cotonou agreement .............................................................................52 8.1 Trade creation and trade diversion ......................................................................................... 53 8.2 Trade creation and trade diversion at the aggregate and sectoral levels ................................55 8.3 A dynamic analysis of the impact of the EPAs .......................................................................59 9. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................63 ANNEXES 66 List of Tables Table 1: Caribbean sugar producers and exporters: Dependency on sugar 2003-2004 ............................ 17 Table 2: European Union imports of bananas (incl. plantains, fresh or dried) .........................................20 Table 3: Banana export performance indicators 1990-2002 .....................................................................22 Table 4: Selected CARICOM country exports to western Europe as a percentage of total exports .........24 Table 5: Phases and objectives of the EPA negotiations ..........................................................................25 Table 6: Exports to the European Union and NAFTA as a percentage of total exports ...........................35 Table 7: Imports from the European Union and NAFTA as a percentage of total exports .......................36 Table 8: Export of CARICOM to the European Union as the sex digit level ...........................................37 Table 9: Number of commodities exported and diversification and concentration indices Selected Caribbean countries 2003 .............................................................................................37 Table 10: Imports of CARICOM from the European Union by aggregate: Share of total (averages)......40 Table 11: Weighted tariff rates of European Union imports by aggregate 2003.......................................41 Table 12: Export, import, market share and market access for main CARICOM export products to western Europe .......................................................................................................43 Table 13: CARICOM exports to western Europe market share competitive matrix .................................46 Table 14: European Union exports to CARICOM market share competitive matrix ................................46 Table 15: Exports of services decomposition by category in percentage of the total 1985-2002 ..............48 Table 16: Export of services - Decomposition by Mode 1 and Mode 2 of services delivery 1985-2002. 49 Table 17: Caribbean -15 services export to European countries (2003), €million ....................................50 Table 18: Balance of Caribbean -15 services trade with European countries (2003), €million .................51 Table 19: CARICOM countries’ share of approved work permits for teachers in the UK 2001-2003 .....52 Table 20: Trade creation in favour of the EU in terms of percentage of total imports of CARICOM ......57 Table 21: Trade diversion on terms of percentage of total imports ...........................................................58 Table 22: Results of the simulation for the equilibrium rates of growth...................................................60 2 List of Figures Figure 1: Production costs for ACP countries 1980-2004 (averages)......................................................... 14 Figure 2: Sugar production costs and export dependency for ACP countries 2003 ................................... 15 Figure 3: Relationship between aaverage weighted tariffs and imports 1996-2003 ...................................39 Figure 4: Balance of trade between CARICOM and the European Union (% of GDP) .............................42 Figure 5: CARICOM share in the total imports of western Europe ...........................................................45 List of Boxes Box 1: Lomé IV 1990-2000: Protocol 6 on rum ........................................................................................23 Box 2: A proposal for sepcial and differential for smaller economies ......................................................27 Executive summary This document analyses selected issues, effects and implications of the Cotonou Agreement (Cotonou, Benin, 23 June 2000) on Caribbean economies with a focus on Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries. The Cotonou Agreement replaces the Lomé agreement which provided the framework for trade and cooperation between the European Union (EU) and African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) States since 1975. It overhauls the trade relations between both. The main objective of the new partnership agreement is the ‘eradication of poverty in a consistent manner with the objectives of sustainable development and the gradual integration of the ACP countries in the world economy’. The agreement comprises four distinguishing features. First, it incorporates the political dimension in the negotiations. Second, it envisages a participatory approach incorporating the different sectors of society in the consultative and decision-making process. Third, it places a strengthened focus on poverty reduction through social and economic development and the deepening of regional integration. Fourth, it overhauls the principle of non-reciprocity which formed the basis for trade relations in the Lomé conventions. With the Cotonou Agreement, ACP countries have agreed to turn their non-reciprocal trading arrangement with Europe into fully reciprocal regional integration areas in the form of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA). ACP countries launched negotiations for EPA in September 2002. The Caribbean region and the EU started the EPA negotiations in April 2004. The EU and CARIFORUM (CARICOM plus the Dominican Republic) are the negotiating partners. CARICOM’s Regional Negotiating Machinery (RNM) negotiates on behalf of CARIFORUM. The EPAs timetable includes four phases and both trading partners are about to embark on the third phase of the negotiation. The progressive dismantling of trade barriers and preferences will further integrate ACP countries into the multilateral system and make the EU-ACP trade relation World Trade Organization (WTO) compatible. In this sense the Cotonou Agreement argues that the move towards a free-trade area will bring benefits, such as the
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