AEROSPACE September 2020

FATIGUE IN MRO HIGH-FLYING GROBS NHS SPITFIRE

www.aerosociety.com September 2020 Volume 47 Number 9

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EDITORIAL Contents Flights of fancy Regulars 4 Radome 12 Transmission This past month has seen a flurry of news about supersonic and even The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets aeronautical intelligence, and social media feedback. hypersonic passenger flight, with Boom announcing co-operation with Rolls- analysis and comment. Royce to study propulsion for its 55-seat Mach 2.2 Overture airliner, Virgin 58 The Last Word Galactic revealing a 9 to 19-seat Mach 3 SST, as well as its own MoU with 11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward asks whether Rolls-Royce and US start-up Hermeus getting USAF backing to explore Rob Coppinger considers the UK’s acquisition of the the potential of hydrogen as bankrupt OneWeb satellite a Mach 5 vehicle for VIP transport. Some may question whether a global a sustainable zero-carbon network could provide a pandemic, economic downturn and the gravest-ever crisis for air travel, is fuel for aircraft. viable alternative to Europe’s really the best time to be launching new SST/HST projects. There may, Galileo GPS. however, be method in this madness. It could be argued that, in fact, now is Features

the perfect time to launch a disruptive mode of air travel. There is plenty of American Airlines time to conduct R&D, gather engineers and develop the technology, ready for when aviation returns and booms again. Moreover, this crisis may (as Professor Keith Hayward explores on p14) give new entrants an opportunity 14 28

to muscle in on the Airbus and Boeing duopoly, leapfrogging them with new Embraer technology. Oddly, Covid-19 itself may itself be a stimulus to high-speed passenger flight, with passengers willing to pay more to spend less time in a large airliner cabin with hundreds of other humans. The business aviation Creative destruction 2.0 Dying for a break industry has already seen this effect of travellers migrating to smaller, more How Covid-19 will reshape Human factors and fatigue the future of the civil management in the MRO private aircraft. Yet, despite the immense technical challenges of supersonic aerospace industry. sector. and hypersonic flight, the biggest challenge may well be that the world has moved on since Concorde and the SR-71 were conceived. Environmental and 20 Born to spy 31 Managing risk – back to basics? social factors take centre stage and optics matter. Even in the hedonistic 70s The past, present and future of the unique Grob 520 The importance of effective and money-crazy 80s no country, however rich, decided to buy Concorde as a surveillance aircraft. risk management in the pure ‘head of state’ VIP transport. For supersonics to succeed a second time recovery from Covid-19. around, they will need to be sustainable. ARCo Tim Robinson FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief 24 [email protected] 34 Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: [email protected] A virtual Farnborough A summary of the many Editor-in-Chief Editorial Office 2020 AEROSPACE subscription topics discussed at the FIA Tim Robinson, FRAeS Royal Aeronautical Society rates: Non-members, £180 Connect virtual Farnborough +44 (0)20 7670 4353 No.4 Hamilton Place Please send your order to: Signed Spitfire scrambles Air Show online webinars. [email protected] London W1J 7BQ, UK Wayne J Davis, RAeS, No.4 Hamilton +44 (0)20 7670 4300 to lift nation’s spirits Deputy Editor Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK. [email protected] How a restored 38 In for the longest haul Bill Read, FRAeS +44 (0)20 7670 4354 www.aerosociety.com [email protected] reconnaissance Spitfire has The potential of ultra-long- +44 (0)20 7670 4351 haul airbridges to connect [email protected] AEROSPACE is published by the Royal Any member not requiring a print become a symbol for hope Aeronautical Society (RAeS). version of this magazine should for the UK during Covid-19. low-infection areas of the Production Manager contact: [email protected] world. Wayne J Davis Chief Executive +44 (0)20 7670 4354 Sir Brian Burridge CBE FRAeS USA: Periodical postage paid at [email protected] Advertising Champlain New York and additional +44 (0)20 7670 4346 offices. Publications Executive Afterburner [email protected] Chris Male, MRAeS Postmaster: Send address changes to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518, 42 Message from our President +44 (0)20 7670 4352 Unless specifically attributed, no Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA. [email protected] material in AEROSPACE shall be taken 43 Message from our Chief Executive Production Executive to represent the opinion of the RAeS. ISSN 2052-451X 44 Book Reviews Annabel Hallam Reproduction of material used in this 48 New Member spotlight +44 (0)20 7670 4361 publication is not permitted without the [email protected] written consent of the Editor-in-Chief. 50 NAL e-journals Book Review Editor Printed by Buxton Press Limited, 52 RAeS virtual events platform Brian Riddle Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire [email protected] SK17 6AE, UK 54 Evolution of naval aviation in Japan Distributed by Royal Mail 56 Elections/New Corporate Partner Additional content is available to view online at: www.aerosociety.com/aerospaceinsight 57 Obituary Including: Thank you NHS Spitfire, UAV mine hunters, Tips for aerospace career changes, RAF ‘Combat Cloud’ video, In the August issue of AEROSPACE, New Member Spotlight, Report on Online FIA Connect, Tempest future combat aircraft programme, PIA PK8303 A320 crash analysed.

Front cover: HERA is a 70-seat hybrid-electric airliner concept from Electric Aviation Group.. (EAG)

@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com SEPTEMBER 2020 13 Blueprint

INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

The path to zero-carbon While the current configuration shows four propulsors or engines of an unknown type, EAG says that the HERA has been future- proofed to be converted to all-electric or alternative zero-carbon propulsion systems before 2030 as the technology matures. Range will initially be 800nm but expand to 1,200nm as battery density improves.

AIR TRANSPORT English electric excites On 20 July a previously unknown Bristol-based start-up, English Aviation Group (EAG), revealed a concept for a 70-seat hybrid-electric regional airliner (HERA) – the largest hybrid aircraft yet. The group, which includes ex-Airbus veterans, says that the airliner could be ready by 2028. The aircraft would feature STOL capability and a ‘whisper-quiet’ acoustic profile to enable utilisation at more airfields than can be used by existing regional airliners. EAG also say that the design could be adapted to take advantage of alternative propulsion technology as it matures to enable zero-carbon flight. The company is aiming to test its technology on a Dash 7/8 size demonstrator in the next four years. EAG believes development of HERA will cost $5bn, with the potential of being a first mover in a $4.4tn market and delivering 50% higher revenues for operators. Electric Aviation Group Electric Aviation

4 AEROSPACE Specifications Passengers 70 MTOW 55,000lb Cruise speed 275kt Range 800nm initially

Sized for growth EAG believes that current 19-seat concepts for hybrid-electric/electric regional aircraft are too small to meet the demands of green mass transportation – and has thus picked a 70-seat airliner. It also forsees the aircraft being offered in a quick-change passenger/ freight version, to allow passenger flights during the day and cargo operations during the night. Ultra-quiet operations will enable it to be operated around the clock.

GATOR-aid EAG says the HERA would Green machine use Gear Assisted Take- Off Run (GATOR) to give EAG estimates that HERA will be able to rapid acceleration for a achieve:

quick lift-off, reducing the 90% reduction in NOx emissions

overall energy 70% reduction in CO2 emissions requirements. Meanwhile, 65% reduction in noise pollution the aircraft would also be able to regenerate power for its 3.5ton lithium-ion batteries while in flight, reducing turn-around time. EAG has already filed 25 patents for the technology used in HERA.

SEPTEMBER 2020 5 Radome COVID-19 AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL AVIATION One-fifth of US airline workforce Business aviation reports at risk of job cuts surge of interest

Business aviation at charter and fractional operators around the operators 80% of pre- world have reported pandemic figures, with increased activity with some of these from new wealthier passengers customers. In Europe, switching to private fractional ownership aircraft to avoid larger specialist NetJets has airports, queues offered to reinstate all and sharing airliners the NetJets Europe pilots

United Airlines with more people, as and cabin crew who US-based airlines have sent out another 10,500 notices to staff, warning of possible worries about Covid-19 were furloughed in April. redundancies as the potential job cuts to American carriers hits 75,000. transmission continue. The company also plans The airlines, including Alaska Air, Frontier and Hawaii Airlines, are required by the In the US, the sector has to add over 60 aircraft US Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, to inform staff of seen a rebound in activity across its worldwide fleet possible cuts, ahead of the 1 October deadline when Federal aid is cut off. in June, with bookings before the end of 2021.

AIR TRANSPORT AEROSPACE 6,000 BA staff to be Airframers slow production rates as made redundant deliveries dry up British Airways is to cut management that will see a further 6,000 staff salaries reduced by 20% as part of cost-cutting but avoids mass layoffs. plans, with 6,000 already Some 270 pilots will having applied for now be made redundant, voluntary redundancy. As compared to the 1,255 well as redundancies, BA originally predicted. Airbus staff will also have their Meanwhile, the UK’s Airbus is to reduce the production rate of its flagship twin-aisle A350 from six a pay reduced or changes Independent newspaper month to five as aircraft sales and deliveries continue to fall due to the Coronavirus. made to their duties has reported that BA Meanwhile, Boeing has said its upcoming 777X widebody will be delayed to 2022. and conditions. On 1 is to move out of its The company is also set to slow production of the 787 to six a month. Finally, Brazil’s August its pilots voted to Waterside HQ to save Embraer is set to slow and push back the schedule of its re-engined and re-winged approve a pay deal with money. E175-E2 due to the effects of Covid-19 on air travel.

NEWS IN BRIEF

fighters for the Indian Air Collier Trophy for 2020 for Supersonic airliner start- Hong Kong-based Force arrived at Haryana’s its achievement in pushing Russia’s UAC has up Boom Aerospace has carrier Cathay Pacific Ambala base on 28 July. ‘the boundaries of flight announced that its Irkut announced that it has has announced a record The aircraft started from and space exploration’. MC-21-300 narrowbody agreed to collaborate with loss of HK$8.7bn for its Merignac in France and airliner has successfully engine-maker Rolls-Royce first half results, as the refuelled in flight before Textron Aviation has passed water-ingestion on propulsion studies impact of the Coronavirus stopping off at Al Dhafra flown its second Cessna testing. The trials took for its planned Mach 2.2 continues. Revenue also in the UAE where France SkyCourier P1 flight test place at Ulyanovsk Overture airliner. The collapsed by almost 50% has an air base. The high-wing, large utility Baratayevka Airport, teams will investigate to HK$27.7bn. However, fighters were first ordered aircraft. The flight, on 11 Russia from 16-22 whether existing engine cargo reported positive in September 2016 and August, follows the first July, with the prototype architecture can be signs, with revenue up all are expected to be flight of the prototype on conducting 29 runs. The adapted for supersonic 8.8% at both Cathay delivered by 2022. 17 May. The SkyCourier airliner is expected to flight. Boom plans to Pacific and Cathay Dragon. is being offered in various enter service in 2022. roll-out its subscale SST The Boeing X-37B configurations, including demonstrator, XB-1, this The first five from an order spaceplane has won a freighter and a 19-seat UK airline Virgin Atlantic October. for 36 Dassault Rafale the prestigious Robert J passenger aircraft. has filed for bankruptcy in

6 AEROSPACE AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT Virgin Galactic unveils Mach 3 design Evacuation report puts hand luggage in spotlight

The UK Air Accidents being hurt. The report Investigation Branch highlighted ‘several (AAIB) has published a passengers hindered report on an ‘unnecessary’ the evacuation by taking emergency evacuation their cabin baggage with

Virgin Galactic Virgin of a Laudamotion A320 them’ and has issued two Space company Virgin Galactic has unveiled a concept for a high-speed Mach 3 airliner/ at London Stansted after safety recommendations bizjet and has signed an MoU with engine makers Rolls-Royce to collaborate on propulsion the left engine suffered a asking for additional studies for this aircraft. The aircraft would seat from 9-19 passengers and cruise at above contained failure on take- measures to be taken to 60,000ft. The design reveal follows a Mission Concept Review with FAA’s Center for off on a flight to Vienna on prevent passengers taking Emerging Concepts and Innovation. 1 March 2019, with ten hand luggage, as well as  Meanwhile, on 28 July, Virgin Galactic revealed the cabin interior design for its out of 161 passengers updated research. SpaceShipTwo. The six-passenger cabin features 16 cameras to capture the experience, Read ‘Emergency Evacuation of Commercial reclining seats that are attached to the sidewalls and a giant mirror in the rear bulkhead. Passenger Aeroplanes’ 2nd Edition, RAeS website

DEFENCE SPACEFLIGHT RAF deploys A400M, Crew Dragon returns two astronauts P-8A in migrant watch with historic splashdown

The RAF has deployed was spotted by aircraft A400M transport aircraft, enthusiasts on ADS-B its newest P-8 Poseidon aircraft tracking sites maritime patrol aircraft and patrolling the Channel a Shadow R1 spyplane, south of Dover on 10 after it was asked by the August. Patrols by P-8 Home Office to assist Poseidon and Shadow in SAR and surveillance spyplanes also followed duties over the English during the week. Though Channel and watch for its primary mission is NASA illegal crossings by boat transport, the A400M does On 2 August, SpaceX became the first private company to successfully launch and from France. The MoD fulfil long-range SAR duties return humans to orbit when its Crew Dragon spacecraft parachuted back to Earth with described the A400M as in the Falkland Islands and NASA astronauts, Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken onboard. The splashdown, in a ‘surveillance aircraft’ in is equipped with aerial life the Gulf of Mexico, was the first water landing in 45 years for US astronauts – which an official tweet after it rafts. previously saw them return from the ISS either, on the Space Shuttle or Soyuz, on land.

the US under chapter 15 by the German Luftwaffe The Russian Defense G700. Gulfstream more than 40 engineers, of the US bankruptcy code in the VIP, passenger and Ministry has said that Farnborough offers inspectors, pilots and which allows a foreign medical evacuation role Kosmos 2543 is part of MRO services, interior technical support staff, debtor to shield assets and will be converted by a system designed to refurbishments and as well as around 50hr in the country. However, Lufthansa Technik. monitor the condition of aircraft modifications. of FAA flight or simulator the move is said to have other Russian spacecraft tests and analysis of over no direct implications for US and British in orbit. The US Federal Aviation 4,000hr of Boeing flight employees or passengers. government officials Administration (FAA) has and simulator testing. Virgin Atlantic is 51% claim to have evidence Gulfstream has opened released a ‘preliminary The changes required owned by Virgin Group that Russia tested a a new customer support summary’ of its formal include adjustments to and 49% by US airline space-based anti- service centre at review of the tasks MCAS functionality and Delta. satellite weapon on 15 Farnborough Airport. required to return the increased redundancy of July when a Russian The 225,000ft2 facility grounded Boeing 737 systems. The 737 MAX Airbus has won its first Kosmos 2543 military can accommodate up to MAX to flight. The could now be cleared order for two long-range satellite launched an 13 large-cabin aircraft, review has taken over for a return to revenue ACJ A321neos. The unidentified projectile including the Gulfstream 18 months to complete service in October at the aircraft will be operated into orbit at high speed. G650, G650ER and and includes work from earliest.

SEPTEMBER 2020 7 Radome

DEFENCE AEROSPACE Clean-sheet COIN family revealed Air Indian Express overruns runway, kills 18

On 7 August, an Air India Initial reports suggest Express Boeing 737-8 that the aircraft landed overshot the runway long on runway 10 before at Calicut International overrunning the 9,000ft Airport, Kozhikode, India, runway. Heavy rain and low Icarus Aerospace before falling down a steep visibility was also reported. Canadian start-up Icarus Aerospace has revealed its TAV (Tactical Air Vehicle) family gorge and breaking the The airport has a ‘tabletop’ concept for a multi-mission military patrol aircraft. It is a twin-turboprop, two-seat aircraft fuselage into two sections. runway with a steep slope. with a configuration similar to the OV-10 Bronco, aimed at providing 90% of the mission Eighteen people (including An Aircraft Accident capability of a modern fighter at only 15% of the cost. The fully militarised version, the two pilots) were killed Investigation Board (AAIB) WASP, is designed to fulfil missions such as armed overwatch, COIN, special operations out of the 190 passengers investigation is now under and ISR. It is equipped with an in-flight refuelling probe and conformal Leonardo AESA and crew that were on way with a five-person Osprey radar. Meanwhile, a long-endurance optionally-piloted variant, Branta, would board the aircraft which panel to report back within feature an increased wingspan and an endurance of 30 hours. had flown in from Dubai. five months.

AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL AVIATION IATA says air travel UK training school goes electric- recovery stalling out powered Airline association IATA countries impacting traffic. has downgraded its In the UK, the introduction predictions for the recovery of 14-day quarantine in passenger air travel due restrictions at the start of to the Coronavirus crisis – July and the removal of extending the downturn by exempt countries such an additional year. It does as France, Malta and The not expect the industry Netherlands on 15 August Bye Aerospace to return to 2019 levels has drawn strong criticism, In a first for a UK flying training school, Gloucestershire-based Skyborne Training of revenue passengers with IATA itself warning Academy has ordered ten all-electric training aircraft from Bye Aerospace. The order per km (RPK) until 2024 that the UK Government’s breaks down into six eFlyer 2 and four eFlyer 4 aircraft, with delivery expected in 2022. with weak business travel ‘stop-go-stop’ measures The eFlyer 2, which first flew in 2018 has a maximum speed of 135kt and an endurance demand and a patchwork are putting 780,000 jobs of 3.5hours. The manufacturer now has over 200 orders for the eFlyer2/4 with 95 of of restrictions between at risk. these for flight training schools, as well as ‘micro’ airline Quantum Air. NEWS IN BRIEF

Canada’s Future Fighter Starship reusable space Organisation made its as the 2020 Boeing Budget carrier Ryanair Capability Project (FFCP) vehicle designed to fly maiden flight on 22 July ecoDemonstrator to trial has reported a £169m to replace the Royal humans to the Moon and from Buochs Airport new sustainable aviation loss for the first quarter Canadian Air Force’s Mars. Launched from in Switzerland. Once technology. Also on the of the financial year Boeing F/A-18 fighter SpaceX’s test site at flight tests have been project are NASA and after 99% of its fleet fleet. Boeing is offering Boca Chica in Texas on completed, the aircraft will Safran Landing Gear. was grounded from the its F/A-18 Block III Super 4 August, the Starship have a medivac interior middle of March to the Hornet, Saab the Gripen rocket ascended to a fitted by Swiss company Icelandair Group has end of June due to the E and Lockheed Martin height of 500ft and then Aerolite AG before being cancelled four out of Coronavirus. The airline the F-35A Lightning II. The used its methane-fuelled, delivered to Sweden. All ten orders for Boeing carried just 500,000 $11-14bn FFCP contract throttleable, swivelling six aircraft are scheduled 737 MAXs and revised passengers, mostly is for 88 aircraft plus Raptor engine to make a for delivery in 2021. deliveries of the remaining repatriation flights, during equipment, training, and controlled descent onto a six. The airline is currently that period, compared to sustainment services. nearby landing pad. Etihad Airways CEO, operating a limited number 41.9million normally. Tony Douglas has of flights with the help of SpaceX has flown a The first of six Pilatus announced that the Gulf government funding after Three manufacturers prototype rocket which is PC-24s ordered by the carrier will provide a 787- announcing a Q2 loss of have submitted bids for to be used to power its Swedish Air Ambulance 10 Dreamliner widebody of ISK 12.3bn ($19.8mn).

8 AEROSPACE GENERAL AVIATION SPACEFLIGHT Bristow trials UAV SAR in Wales Three space probes set off Bristow Group, which for Mars provides UK search and On 30 July, NASA its first rover mission to rescue helicopter services launched its newest Mars the red planet, with the for the HM Coastguard, Rover, Perseverance, Tianwen-1 probe lifting has flown the first UAVs aboard a ULA Delta off onboard a Long March in support of piloted SAR V rocket from Cape 5 rocket from Wenchang services in an operational Canaveral, Florida. As well spaceport, Hainan Island. trial. The demonstration saw as the rover itself, which The United Arab Emirates’ two rotary-wing Schiebel will search for traces of Hope Mars probe was CAMCOPTER S-100s life on the red planet, the launched on 20 July. The deployed to Caernarfon mission also includes spacecraft was launched Airport, Wales, where Ingenuity, a small UAV on an H2-A rocket from they will assist helicopters helicopter which will be Tanegashima spaceport in in maritime, coastal and the first aerial vehicle to Japan. All three are set to mountain SAR tasks in fly on another planet. On arrive in orbit around Mars

Bristow Snowdonia. 23 July, China launched in February 2021.

AEROSPACE DEFENCE ATI launches FlyZero UK Captive carry test for USAF zero-emissions project hypersonic glide weapon The UK Aerospace the expertise of around Technology Institute (ATI) 100 secondees from has launched FlyZero, industry and academia. a strategic research The project will look at project aimed to help such aspects as the UK aerospace develop technical and commercial a zero-carbon emission viability of a future zero- aircraft by 2030. Backed carbon emission aircraft by a £15m grant, from the design; technology and USAF Department of Business, industrialisation roadmaps, The USAF has announced that it has conducted the final successful captive-carry test Energy & Industrial assessments of the of its hypersonic Lockheed Martin AGM-183A ARRW (Air-launched Rapid Response Strategy (BEIS), the sustainability issues, the Weapon) at Edwards Air Force base. The conventionally-armed weapon, which is initial 12-month FlyZero UK industrial capability scheduled to enter service with the USAF in 2022, was carried by a B-52 in the test. Its programme will utilise market and economics. top speed has not been disclosed but is believed to be about Mach 20.

25 July. The satellite was The Royal Netherlands carried into orbit aboard US hypersonic start-up ON THE MOVE Air Force (RNLAF) has a Long March 4B rocket, Hermeus has received Cesar Pereira becomes resumed flying its NH90 together with two satellites, USAF backing to study ICON Aircraft has named VP, Europe, Middle East helicopters after the Tianqi 10 and Lobster Eye converting its Mach 5 Jason Huang as its new and Africa, Raul Villaron aircraft were grounded on 1, for astronomy and data passenger aircraft into a President. becomes VP, Asia-Pacific 20 July following the crash relay services. VIP presidential transport. and Mark Neely is VP, of an RNLAF NH90 into Corbi Bulluck has been Americas. the Caribbean Sea. The On 8 August, a Canadair Correction appointed as International Dutch Safety Board (OVV) CL-415 water bomber In the August edition of President of The Ninety- On 6 August, Gen Charles concluded that it was crashed in Portugal while AEROSPACE, in the article Nines, International Q Brown became the US unlikely that the crash was fighting wild fires in the Tempest Fugit, the Tempest Organization of Women Air Force’s 22nd Chief of Outline Business case was caused by a technical or Peneda-Gerês National Pilots. Staff. described as equivalent mechanical failure. Park. Both crew members to the MoD ‘Main Gate’ survived the initial crash decision milestone. It actually Martyn Holmes is Jeffrey Lam is set to be China launched a Ziyuan 3 with injuries but the pilot should be ‘Initial Gate’. We Embraer’s new Chief the new ST Engineering mapping satellite from the later succumbed to his apologise for any confusion Commercial Officer for its Aerospace President, caused. Taiyuan Space Center on wounds. airliner division. Meanwhile, taking over on 1 October.

SEPTEMBER 2020 9 By the Numbers Understanding the world of Aerospace through data Invaders to Mars – 2020 NASA Perseverance Tiawen-1 Hope Country: US Country: China Country: United Arab Emirates Launcher: ULA Atlas V Launcher: Long March 5 Launcher: Mitsubishi Heavy Launch date: 30 July 2020 Launch date: 23 July 2020 Industries: H-11A Mass: 1,025kg (Rover) Mass: 3,175kg (orbiter) 240kg Launch date: 19 July 2020 (rover) Mass: 1,350kg (probe) Payload: Perseverance Rover and Igenuity helicopter Payload: Orbital probe and rover Payload: Orbital probe Arrival: February 2021 Arrival: February 2021 Arrival: February 2021

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10 AEROSPACE Pushing the Envelope Exploring advances on the leading edge of aerospace Robert Coppinger Power on tap

ydrogen, the most plentiful element From Slovenia to Cranfield in the universe, found in water and hydrocarbons, oil and natural gas, Meanwhile, Slovenian general aviation could realise zero carbon emission manufacturer Pipistrel is leading a European Union transcontinental flight. While full- (EU) hydrogen fuel cell project. It is part of the Helectric battery and turbo-electric, turbine, battery second team intending to fly a fuel cell aircraft. hybrids have been proposed as greener solutions, Its Group Chief Technology Officer, Tine Tomažic, for long-haul flight, they are not expected to be explained that the thermal conditioning system enough. Like full-electric battery and turbo-electric developed under the EU project is: “bigger by propulsion, hydrogen, used with a fuel cell, is still volume than the fuel cell stack.” Storage is also an producing electricity to turn a propeller or fan; issue with hydrogen. It can either be stored as a otherwise, hydrogen can be combusted in a turbine gas, which needs large tanks because it has a low like kerosene. Hydrogen’s advantage in both density, or as a liquid which requires the gas to be cases is that enough of it can be stored onboard chilled to very cold levels. an aircraft to fuel a long-haul flight and no carbon In the UK, Cranfield University is the coordinator dioxide or nitrogen oxides are emitted by the for the ongoing EU project ENABLEH2, which ends propulsion system. in August 2021. ENABLEH2 aims to show that liquid hydrogen can sustain aviation for the long The race for power term with the direct combustion of hydrogen in a turbine, instead of fuel cells. Both power systems This year, two different teams intend to fly hydrogen have water as a by-product. Water vapour released fuel cell aircraft. Temperature control will be key for into the high atmosphere is suspected of having a the fuel cell efficiency needed to make this type of potential global warming impact and this requires hydrogen power for aviation a reality. For a fuel cell, further study. temperature control is critical because its efficiency can decrease by 20% if a cell is too hot or not warm enough; and heat can come from the fuel cell itself. A Floating a solution fuel cell is like a battery, it has an anode, cathode and an electrolyte. The hydrogen is fed to the anode and Despite these many challenges, the potential for air, or oxygen, to the cathode. Air supply is another hydrogen was emphasised in two reports published challenge, as at altitude there is far less oxygen. This this year. February saw a French government report will require air compressors or supplemental oxygen advise that hydrogen-powered aviation needed carried onboard. A fuel cell also needs a catalyser further research and in June, an EU report, dated FOR A FUEL CELL, and, after decades of research, the best catalyst is still May, was published about the viability of hydrogen- powered aviation. In September, the European TEMPERATURE platinum. Fuel cell powertrain developer ZeroAvia is CONTROL participating in a UK Government-funded hydrogen- Commission is expected to propose what research electric aviation project. It is one of the teams intending is required for hydrogen to become a power source IS CRITICAL to fly a fuel cell. ZeroAvia’s business development for the EU economy; this effort could be substantial. BECAUSE ITS lead, Julian Renza, agrees platinum is necessary. In a Later this year, Pipistrel and ZeroAvia expect to EFFICIENCY CAN fuel cell the platinum is at the anode and it causes the see their respective hydrogen fuel cells fly in test DECREASE BY hydrogen molecules to release protons and electrons. aircraft but, in the long run will hydrogen take off as 20% IF A CELL IS a fuel source? State funding may be vital - Dr Bobby The electrons go through an external circuit, creating TOO HOT OR NOT the flow of electricity. The protons migrate through Sethi is a lecturer at Cranfield University’s centre the fuel cell’s electrolyte to its cathode where they for propulsion engineering and coordinator for WARM ENOUGH; combine with oxygen, and some of the electrons, to EnableH2. Sethi explained that government support AND HEAT CAN produce water and heat. Thermal management is will be needed to realise a hydrogen-powered COME FROM THE therefore key to fuel cell performance. aviation future. FUEL CELL ITSELF

SEPTEMBER 2020 11 Transmission

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Pakistan Airlines PK8303 crash AAIB I must emphasise that the genuine licences. I would like to observations that I will make make clear that if Muslim pilots are mine and mine alone. are following their religion, However, that said, I believe there is NO necessity to fast that the crash of Flight and fly. Fasting is excused PK8303 in Karachi on 22 on a journey and, if one must f May(1) was a misinterpretation make up for not fasting, when of religion. There is no doubt flying, ANY day can be used PK8303 crash(1) that the cause was ‘Pilot to catch up later. Fasting and Error’. To deal with the ‘WHY’, flying may not be confined Liam Bright From the I think that the foregoing to religious reasons. A pilot testimony I’d say it was a little observations make a good could be on a fasting ‘fad diet’ more than an SMS error that case for hypoglycemia – and suffer the same sort of caused those pilots to attempt potentially brought on by incapacitation. An aggressive to land without gear down. fasting during Ramadan. In the series of handouts and lectures early 1990s I was Chief Pilot, should be made (as I did) Corporate Safety, in PIA where before the next Ramadan. As I we had a couple of incidents PIA Flight PK8303 crash site from Pakistan Aircraft Accident have told my pilots, “When you of impaired pilots. Following Investigation Preliminary Report. sit in the cockpit of an airliner, the Pakistan Air Force’s ‘no there is no domestic trouble, fasting and flying’ rule, I banned They put the gear down, but This crash had nothing to do problems with the airline fasting and flying in PIA and perhaps after noticing the with the licensing problem management, or religion. There this was followed shortly excess speed, raised it again that caused so much loss of is just ONE sacred duty: to get i after by the CAA, following and in their befuddled state confidence in Pakistani pilots your passengers, crew, and Ahsan Mansoor Khan my lead, which banned it in of mind, forgot it, and landed due to the Aviation Minister’s aeroplane to the destination aviation law. I think that the on the engine nacelles. The unwise announcement (that as safely and expeditiously as A very detailed analysis. pilots were incapacitated and constant talking in the cockpit is now becoming clear as a possible. However, while procedural were fixated on landing from about the Covid-19 virus also monumental error.) Both the drift and situational a very unstable approach. points to a type of fixation. pilots on PK 8303 had valid Capt J Sadiq (retd), FRAeS violations have apparently contributed to this incident, this shows a disregard for safety which is apparent Eurofighter In search of Frank Smith Typhoon lessons for Tempest with EASA suspending its

British Library TCO authorisation based on findings raised in June and September 2019 which were specific to the implementation of an effective Safety Management System. PIA has been run on an ad hoc basis where we’ve seen regular shuffling of top In January, the Eurofighter Typhoon took part in the Finnish Air management based on the Force’s 2020 HX Challenge flight evaluation trials. political environment of that time, as if they’re trying to find nations took priority on that one superhero to do it all Latterly, I came across a of the Aero Department at With regard to the Tempest (2) capability development is from the top. photo in a 2011 copy of RAE. I later worked for Frank article in the August edition , because they paid for that Aircraft magazine, given in the hypersonics section after the experience of development. Many export to me by a friend, who is at RARDE Fort Halstead Tornado entering service customers want ‘off the Karl Allen It’s often always a former airline pilot. In an (1959-1967). I lost touch with the Royal Saudi Air shelf’ capability and are not the same – human factors article by Eric Brown there with him after I left and I know Force, the Eurofighter prepared to take on the at fault in multiple ways, with is a photo in which there nothing of his later career Typhoon was designed to risk and funding of future multiple warnings from aircraft are five individuals standing and retirement. Frank was a global specification from requirements. Therefore, the systems and ATC which has in front of a Gloster Whittle a Fellow of the RAeS but the outset. Global operation export customers usually led to tragic and sad loss. E28/39 who were involved in I never saw an obituary of was thus proven through have to wait until the core CRM is my No 1 fear when the science and engineering him in any of the Society’s the successful completion programme funding delivers flying, to the degree that I’ll not team at Farnborough in 1944. publications. Does anyone of both hot and cold climate their required capability. fly with certain airlines. I know It included Frank Smith, who else know of him? trials conducted during the development programme. this is irrational on the surface was then Deputy Head of the but sadly there are facts to Prof Nigel Wood FRAeS The reason why the core Robert Smith FRAeS High-Speed Flight Section rationalise my fear.

12 AEROSPACE @twodrones I expect @war_student I was From the RAeS photo archives there are very well practised wondering if it was a token

RAeS/NAL and surprisingly effective gesture to placate the procedures for using the political corner Patel backed A400M in this mission. The them into? C-130J and, now, A400M, have been doing it in the Falklands since at least @rgm9588 Pointless 2010. I’d say it’s an excellent attempt to get in on the application of that capability act by the RAF! How will A400M migrant patrol flying at 250kt and 3,000ft above the Channel have any @Guzzler79 [On RAF @LJ_Skipper It’s almost like positive impact? It’s a total deploys A400M in cross it’s a stunt and that maybe you waste of their very scarce Channel migrant patrol task] shouldn’t gap MPA for ten plus resources and money! The Could also be useful training years UK Border Force, HMCG, for crews to practise the RNLI and soon the RN, plus Flt Lt Tommy Rose, DFC (1895-1968) signs an autograph long-range SAR job which I the French, are on the water for Miss Gogo Schiaparelli, the daughter of the famous believe the A400 still fulfills @Rotorfocus Break out the now! dress designer, alongside BAIV Double Eagle, G-AEIN, in the Falklands? BRIXMIS Chipmunk ... The Perfect Lady, at Hanworth in September 1936, prior to rename it BREXMIS, sorted. taking part in the Schlesinger Portsmouth to Johannesburg

air race. The aircraft was named after the winning cocktail Virgin Galactic at a Wine and Spirit Exhibition in London. G-AEIN was Fly at Mach 3 with Virgin Galactic @CdnDefence If you’re damaged at an airfield in Cairo when the undercarriage using the right design (XB- folded and withdrew. Of the nine aircraft which started the 70), then you’re in the sweet race, only one finished. spot at M3 in terms of range and economy. For minimum drag and max efficiency, while still being above M1, Ready graduates New thinking needed the speed should be about M1.8. Phil Wood [On National Allan Blakeout [On Careers Graduate Week] Looking in Crisis(5)] I have lost count forward to this; we have some of the number of posts I have @GaztheJourno Noise high calibre graduates ready seen from aviation colleagues is the eternal problem with to go! and former colleagues around supersonic flights. Can’t see the world relating to lost a 19-seat bizjet being viable employment. Most display Virgin Galactic announced in August that it had completed Autonomous hunters for more than a few years of hope for their future and a mission concept review for a Mach 3 delta-winged novelty trips either, BA just potential changes in direction aircraft with a capacity for 9-19 passengers. Lori Payne [On UAV mine canned its 32-seat A318 (3) in the context of the huge hunters ] Wow – this is like transatlantic service. battleships to the next level! impact on the aviation sector. @Taurevanime [On Virgin @thehighfrontier Looking ‘The aim of the toolbox is to I wish them all well in these Galactic announces Mach at the blended lower difficult times. Going forward, use a collaboration of air, sea 3 airliner project] While I fuselage and nacelles, I @MichaelJPryce I think it aviation sector leaders have an and underwater vehicles’ – am glad to see supersonic wonder if they’re aiming for a may be alcohol fuelled. Why opportunity and an obligation that’s major cool level. transport return, I do wonder bit of compression lift here? does it need all that wing? to assess the business models about whether or not Slightly flattened ‘chined’ Insightful Tempest they adopt for regeneration, pushing to Mach 3 is worth forebody as well. From including financing aircraft, the effort. these renders it certainly @c_mperman Great Geoffrey Wardle merger, regional alliances [On doesn’t look big enough to question. Looks like they’ve (4) and employment of staff. Tempest Fugit ] A very good be hydrogen fuelled as some thrown away the vortex lift Replicating the past will not update blog on the Tempest have suggested. used by Concorde. Result lead to ‘Built to Last’ and only programme, well composed @pauladunstable bigger wing and probably inflict future pain on long and insightful. Challenger-sized bizjet? even higher incidence on suffering staff. the approach. Also likely to have higher wave drag.

1. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/pia-pk8303-crash-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/ 2. AEROSPACE, August 2020, p 32, Tempest fugit 3. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/uav-mine-hunters/ 4. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/tempest-fugit/ 5. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/careers-in-crisis-ten-top-tips-to-navigate-through-turbulent-times-ahead/

@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com SEPTEMBER 2020 13 AEROSPACE Civil aerospace and Covid-19

Creative Destruction 2.0 Covid-19 and the future of the civil aerospace industry

14 AEROSPACE Professor KEITH HAYWARD FRAeS analyses how the destructive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global aerospace industry may also be a catalyst for revolutionary change and a shake-up of the sector.

Above: Airbus A350 reative destruction was one of Joseph the all-metal, stressed monoplane in the 1930s; the and Boeing 787 at Schumpeter’s most famous ideas: compounded, pressurised airliner of the late 1940s; Farnborough Air Show. simply put this is the idea of economic jet power in the 1950s; computer-authorised Left clockwise from top renewal through crisis, continually control systems in the 1980s; and maybe composite right: revitalising capitalism by clearing the materials, and electric power now coming to Creative Destruction 2.0 Temperature testing of Cground for new forms of wealth creation. A positive maturity. The advent of the high-ratio bypass fan passengers at Gatwick Covid-19 and the future of the civil aerospace industry Airport. (Matt Alexander/ force in the long run perhaps but not something engines in the 1960s might also be added to the PA Wire) necessarily to experience or be on the wrong side of list. All of these events helped to shape today’s civil 3D printing of medical visor its consequences. aerospace industry. frames at Airbus Spain. The Covid-19 pandemic may well qualify as a (Airbus) destructive crisis but will it revolutionise the civil Timing (and cash) is all EasyJet cabin cleaning. aerospace industry? The current dominance of (Ben Queenborough/ Boeing and Airbus is the result of several decades A history of technological innovation does not PinPep) of drift into oligopoly – an incremental process of itself explain how Airbus and Boeing came to An empty terminal at rather than an abrupt response to a major change dominate the airliner business. Political economists McCarran Airport in in technology or the economic environment. would immediately look to state funding as either Nevada. (Anthony Citrano) Things might be fundamentally different after the a direct or indirect contributing factor. However, pandemic, but how far are these likely to change the another economic concept, this time the product aerospace balance of power? Is this an opportunity cycle, coined by Raymond Vernon, might also help for China, or some other well-supported industry our understanding. to shake the duopoly? It may be too early to judge, The product cycle describes a curve of money perhaps, but well worth some consideration. over time: first comes the unprofitable initial investment, which puts the curve into a negative A bit of history quadrant: revenue builds up to put the curve into positive territory: returns build up to a peak, which The current civil aerospace landscape has a history. then begin to decline. Ideally, the positive years are Technological innovation has often been a force for long enough to return the initial investment and ‘creative destruction’ and Schumpeter was one of profits sufficient to sustain future activity. This may the first economists to identify technological change be extended by subsequent smaller investments to as an independent variable in economics. In a far renew or upgrade the product but not indefinitely, from exclusive list of technological innovations that as competition is almost certainly eroding any early have shaped civil aviation, there is a pathway from advantage, and which might introduce a superior

SEPTEMBER 2020 15 AEROSPACE Civil aerospace and Covid-19

alternative. The difficult decision is when to initiate a new cycle, which might of course imply a fratricidal effect on the original product’s market. Oh, but when to take the plunge on a huge new investment, which for a modern airliner is likely to be over $10bn? So it is tempting to keep the old A PROTRACTED stager going for as long as possible. If this sounds RECESSION like the Boeing 737 family, and how the 737 MAX debacle may have been one increment too many, AND the product cycle dilemma is QED. Further back, DEPRESSED Douglas had to play catch-up to Boeing when AIRLINER the latter launched the 707 into the market, after SALES COULD Boeing Douglas had been reluctant to replace its market leading piston-engined family. Note also a warning PROVE FATAL for first adopters – de Havilland took advantage of a FOR MANY IN technological creative destructive moment brought THE SUPPLY by wartime development of the Whittle turbine with CHAIN. the Comet but could not capitalise on its lead, due primarily to limitations in other technologies and knowledge.

Duopoly is the result of having the cash and good timing

The 737 MAX notwithstanding, and the A380 is probably Airbus’ equivalent failure, commercially if not technically, both Boeing and Airbus have timed new products sufficiently well to stave off credible Airbus opposition and in passing to see off established competitors to create their current market dominance (Airbus might also have had some luck in not losing out to the Boeing 787, thanks to faulty battery technology). Without wishing to overload anybody with another economic concept, this has contributed to the ‘high barriers to entry’ in the civil aerospace market. High initial costs, combined with continual R&D ‘learning’, the acquisition of soft skills such as marketing and after-sales service networks, have also encouraged the drift towards duopoly. A similar process has produced an oligopoly in engine manufacturing and other key equipment sectors such as under carriages. State aid somewhere in Embraer/YouTube this process does provide a mighty help in attacking the barriers to entry, but even this is no guarantee that a new entrant can sustain the effort long enough to become a serious contender. And this is a very long-term game remember – it has taken over 50 years for Airbus to reach its current position, Players still in the and for Boeing not far short of 70 years. game: In the long run, the duopolists’ power stands From top: and falls on their ability to keep momentum in Boeing’s new 777X-9. pushing the product cycle forward, while milking Airbus A330-900neo the monetary advantages of an established product taxiing prior to first flight. range. This is why, all things being equal, the Embraer E2 water spray thousands of Airbuses and Boeings on order world- test. wide, and the imminent threat of innovative additions Airbus A220s (ex to the two families, constituted a buttress against Bombardier CSeries new entrants, however, well funded by ambitious design) under

governments. construction in Alabama. Airbus

16 AEROSPACE But things may no longer be equal – China lurks

The advent of Covid1-9 and the massive disruption it is causing to the global air transport system may yet be a Schumpeterian moment. For Boeing and Airbus, at almost any other point over the last 20 years, a major recession and its effects might have been less of a challenge (the 2008 financial crisis was one such hiccup) – expensive, yes, but not a realistic opportunity to break the duopoly. China has been knocking on the door for much of this century, but had made little real progress. Now a Covid-induced extended market disruption might just provide China with a breathing space to present a real threat to Boeing and Airbus. Of course, many countries have tried to break into the civil airliner market – as many as have exited over the years perhaps. Historically, France The Product Cycle had one success; Russia never made much of an China would seem to meet most, if not all of impact outside its protected national or political the background conditions to launch a realistic markets – and remains a weak player; Germany challenge in the 120-seat plus sectors. The country failed; Indonesia failed; Japan failed. The UK and has a large and increasingly capable defence Holland hung on for a while at the bottom end of sector supported by heavy national investment to the market. Collaboration in Airbus was the eventual reach regional, if not world super power, status. It route for Europe in general to take on American has a large and rapidly growing trans-continental domination. As the market segmented, Brazil and economy, evolving under explicit or implicit Canada made a go of it, until Bombardier was swept state intervention and protection. The Chinese up into Airbus. Brazil’s Embraer might also have economy has achieved a global standing, which become part of the duopoly and its future may yet will continue to expand after the pandemic. A be part of a putative ‘creative destruction’ event. similarly rapidly expanding national airline industry The American and European domination is best is subject to political commands to ‘fly the flag’ – explained by reference to a combination the size of the COMAC C919 has 300 orders from Chinese their base markets, development of those soft skills airlines and lessors. Finally, better-placed Western mentioned earlier and of course access to some manufacturers have been keen to buy into that form of state-supported R&D or launch capital. It market through collaboration – including Airbus’s might also have been relevant that successful civil A320 assembly plant – and offshore sourcing of industries are usually linked to large and technically components. capable military sectors, either to share the R&D The now somewhat isolated state of Embraer may burden or to provide the infrastructure and demand provide another option for China. Embraer is a high side benefits that increase the scale and scope quality company, with a successful range of products, generally of aerospace activity. This, or its absence, and an international reputation and market base. This was perhaps a critical reason for Japan’s problems latter feature would be of particular importance for in breaking through in the 1960s, although the FSX China still struggling to market and support the C919. national fighter programme at the time was viewed Although China is not short of engineers and skilled (especially by American critics) as an indirect personnel, Embraer’s relatively young and productive approach that would spin off into a national civil workforce was certainly attractive to Boeing, and aerospace industry. would be of benefit to COMAC. In general, it has been easier to enter and Even without the possible addition of Embraer’s to stay in the regional/feeder airliner market. civil capabilities, China could lever its advantageous Three players are still active (excluding Airbus/ market and financial resources to increase its Bombardier), Japan, Brazil and China. The latter’s collaborative range, extracting a higher technical presence depends on the state-pensioner ARJ-21 price for its investment. The weaker the current programme. Moving up from this sector is perhaps world civil aerospace leadership is post-Covid, the the hardest step up the aerospace pyramid; the more China might secure from ‘negotiating from bigger airliners are technically more challenging, strength’, wresting more technology transfer and more expensive and require a more sophisticated work share. This might be with the ailing Russian marketing system to attack a much more industry but Airbus has more experience of effective demanding set of customers, many of whom like to and egalitarian collaboration than Boeing. Wider make package deals across a ‘family’ of products. political rivalries might also keep the Americans out.

SEPTEMBER 2020 17 AEROSPACE Civil aerospace and Covid-19 Airbus British Airways

Technology remains the key to On their way out – the certainly amongst the propulsion community, but the market control last of the four-engined established airframers were also on that case. passenger aircraft: However, any significant delay in launching But let’s not be too quick to dismantle the Left: Due to Covid-19 the next investment/product cycle might just global airliner duopoly. It is deeply entrenched British Airways has provide the strategic opportunity for a new entrant. and China still a long way to go to prove itself withdrawn its entire fleet The loss of two, three, or more years of revenue, a capable civil producer. The C919 150-160 of Boeing 747-400s. underfunding of research activity (which might Production of new 747s is seat airliner, although it has a state-of–the-art to cease in 2022. be mitigated by state intervention) and delays to Western engine, is a conventional design. Its new launches, might be the point that ‘creative Right: A new ANA Airbus protracted development also reflects the steep A380. Manufacture of the disruption’ hits the market. Boeing has announced learning curve faced by COMAC as a commercial A380 will end next year. a 30% fall in revenue even as the pandemic began aerospace systems integrator; and the China- to bite and its debt has also risen by $27bn. There Russian widebody project has been delayed due is talk of a partnership with Mitsubishi, even as to wrangles between the partners over technology the rites were still being read over the Embraer transfers. The duopoly always had the advantage deal, sunk evidently by Boeing’s financial straits. of controlling the location and openness of the Boeing has reportedly put off any new launch for technological goalposts, or to apply Vernon’s five years. concept, to time the start of another product cycle. Airbus appears to be in better shape, with Before Covid, Boeing and Airbus order books a highly liquid financial position, even though were bulging, and despite 737 MAX and A380 its revenues are also down with a €481m first setbacks, both were either poised or contemplating quarter loss. This is despite ending the A380 and innovative products in key market segments. Under still carrying the cost of A400 development. The normal circumstances, the duopoly might have acquisition of Bombardier’s CSeries, relabelled as been content to leave China building an industry the A220, also seems to have been fortuitous with based on obsolete concepts, or facing another the market for smaller aircraft promising a quicker expensive commitment to stay in touch. recovery. The French government has also been On their way in – the new Leapfrogging is another remote and an even generation of rivals. quick to initiate supportive measures. But it too more expensive option; Japan sometimes seems to might be pushing new programmes well to the right. Lower left: Expected to be considering this strategy with second-generation return to the skies – the The key question will be just how much spare super-, or even hypersonic flight. Well good luck to Boeing 737 MAX. cash either Boeing or Airbus will have to support that; this approach is fraught with huge technical Lower right: New kid on expensive new programmes. R&D activity might and commercial uncertainties. Meeting the carbon- the block – the COMAC survive with some reduction in effort, but the real neutral future may provide another entry point, C919. test is when they have to contemplate the large Boeing COMAC

18 AEROSPACE sums needed to launch a new narrowbody or wide but especially in its East Midlands heartland. It medium sized airliner. is asking its suppliers to share the pain and more bad In addition, moves towards another significant news may yet follow. Suppliers are being asked to shift in propulsion technology towards electric or slash their prices by 15% or lose Derby’s business. hybrid engines are getting more prominence. Green Rolls-Royce, with much of its civil business pressures were already pushing strongly in this tied to long-range widebodies and service- CHINA WILL direction, and investment was rising. Covid-19 has related revenues, will not immediately benefit BEGIN TO provided another stimulus in the form of government from a revival in short/medium haul traffic and funding designed to help ailing aerospace LCC operation. Longer haul traffic is likely LOOM LARGER companies, which have often been linked to carbon to be sticky for some years yet. Although its AS A POTENTIAL neutralising goals. This will afford even more stock price has slumped, there should not be COMPETITOR opportunities for new entrants to disrupt established any alarm bells yet but the UK Government AND industrial structures. would be advised to check its golden share and a means to make life difficult for potential PERMANENT A wider disruption in the supply chain? predators. THREAT TO THE A final twist in the saga as far as UK suppliers ‘BIG TWO’ If it is, in reality, hard to predict outcomes at the are concerned (this includes the Airbus wing top of the civil aerospace pyramid, the supply chain operation), is the impact of a post-Brexit environment. implications are even more problematic. With Airbus If EU-located Airbus suppliers see an uptick in and Boeing, along with major OEMs like Rolls- repatriated business, there are no guarantees that Royce, announcing deep production cuts – nearly much of this might come to the UK, especially a third in the case of Airbus – the pain is moving if a hard Brexit increases overhead and other rapidly outwards and downwards. Many suppliers administrative costs. There is no permanent reason had already been hit by the 737 MAX debacle. why next-generation wing production should stay in Bankruptcy and, in due time, consolidation will the UK. Unless there is a deal to fix both the future affect the supply chain, and not just the weaker relationship with EASA and retain British access to firms either, if a company is especially vulnerable to an increasingly well-funded EU research fund, a post- cash-flow issues. The pain is likely to be greater, as Covid, post-Brexit world looks really tough. many firms had been asked to ramp up to sustain increased rates; some will have over-borrowed on Future uncertainties the strength of future revenues. Among the second tier OEMs there has been a In the end, only time will tell whether we are similar structural trend towards, if not duopoly, certainly entering a new Schumpeterian world. At least one narrow oligopolies. Below this level, globalisation, analyst is forecasting that the demand for new driven either by business strategies looking to aircraft will drop by 50% by 2028, a huge reversal ‘strategically’ source in order to win market access, on the growth rates that had underpinned business political demands for ‘offset’ in some form or another, models throughout the civil aerospace industry for and good business sense seeking more productive, much of the last two decades. cost-effective sources, had become the norm. Nevertheless, the Airbus/Boeing duopoly will However, failings in global sourcing had already be hard to dislodge – to reiterate they still have begun to emerge before Covid. There was evidence powerful incumbent advantages. Neither are of primes and OEMs bringing some aspects of especially exposed to increasingly uncertain global manufacturing ‘in-house’ to ensure greater control over defence markets – Boeing of course has some quality and supply. In the case of US-China relations, degree of national defence market protection but political tension was again increasingly a feature of a slowdown in defence spending will reverberate supply chain choices. Post-Covid supply disruptions as throughout the industry, particularly if oil-fuelled firms fail, more domestic political demands for national customers lose their relish and their ready cash sourcing, and an invariable contraction into national for buying expensive equipment. The market for industrial base approaches might apply a salutatory smaller airliners is likely to pick up quicker than effect on global aerospace supply chains. wide-bodies, which again while good for volume And the darkest side of post-Covid disruption – cuts into margins. However, Boeing still has to prove which companies might not survive? Mergers and the 737 MAX is safe and commercially viable. acquisitions activity has slowed down and, so far, few However, as someone who once forecast the companies have failed or looked for aid but this might demise of Airbus in the late 1970s, this is one be a lull as reality hits the supply chain. Again, much cautious historian-analyst. The key question will be will depend upon the speed and quality of the upturn. how long the duopoly has to delay new product/new A protracted recession and depressed airliner sales technology launches. The more protracted that turns could prove fatal for many in the supply chain. out to be, the more China will begin to loom larger As one of the key OEMs, Rolls-Royce is already as a potential competitor and permanent threat to having a torrid pandemic, shedding 9,000 jobs world- the ‘Big Two’.

SEPTEMBER 2020 19 AEROSPACE Germany’s U-2 Born to spy

There might only have been six Grob D-450 spyplanes built back in the Cold War era but, as ALAN WARNES explains, there is still plenty of life in the aircraft yet.

ndoubtedly the composite-built Grob E-Systems considered the Egrett programme as 520 is one of the most fascinating an ideal opportunity to develop its name and know- general aviation aircraft out there today. how in the international marketplace, considering it Originally designed as a U-2 type as a big growth area for the company, despite the high altitude long endurance manned difficulties in exporting highly sensitive technologies. Uplatform, the Grob 520 Egrett was born from a West The requirement by the joint West German Air German Air Force-US Air Force requirement in the Force/US Air Force programme was for up to 12 mid-80s – the height of the Cold War. LAPAS (airborne stand-off primary reconnaissance system) aircraft. Two German pilots were even US/German spyplane programme sent to Beale AFB California, for high altitude training, the home of the USAF’s 9th Strategic Back then the airframe was labelled the Egrett; the Reconnaissance Wing flying SR-71 and U-2s. The name evolved from the three companies backing programme’s official purpose, which the US Air the development of the reconnaissance platform: Force named Senior Guardian, was to provide a E-Systems (for avionics – now L3Harris Technologies) cheaper alternative to the Lockheed U-2 for both based in Greenville, Texas; Grob Flugzeugbau (for treaty verification and environmental monitoring airframe – now H3Grob) in southern Germany and purposes. They were supposed to fly close to Garrett Engines (with TPE331 turboprop engine – the East German border with a sideways-looking now Honeywell) in North Carolina, Texas. Now the airborne radar to monitor electronic traffic on the Egrett name is no longer used. other side. Grob

20 AEROSPACE Grob 21

SEPTEMBER 2020 Grob single-seat Below: Grob’s G 520 taxies out at the Mindelhausen company’s airfield in southern Germany. By then five single-seat aircraft had By then five single-seat was cancelled. E-Systems pulled out was cancelled. E-Systems Analysts had of the project in 1993. would have estimated the contract and $1bn brought in between $600m the end of the for E-Systems through decade. been built, the D-450 (10001N14ES and D-FGEI) being a proof-of-concept it was scrapped aircraft. Unfortunately, in the wake of the decision to stop the order but the remaining four single- seaters and the only dual-seat aircraft The second (10002 are still flying. D-FGEE third aircraft to N4510) and (10003 was operated by E-Systems as N27ES but is now N520EG) are with Airborne Resources Inc from – the fourth (10004 Midlothian, Texas, N520DM) based is with Bear Defence the fifth (10005 Florida, and in Tampa, – D-FGRO, now D-FAHH) is still flown by H3Grob, as is the G 520T (10200 – D-FHHH) twin-seat aircraft. Following the end of the Cold War in 1990 the end of the Cold War Following the design to civil authorities as a resource a resource to civil authorities as the design platform. management the West Germany, East and and the unification of spending and the Egrett cut its defence Luftwaffe THE PROTOTYPE THE PROTOTYPE D-450 DEVELOPMENT AIRCRAFT FLEW ON 24 JUNE PILOTED 1987, BY EINAR ENEVOLDSON. ITS PROVE TO HIGH ALTITUDE CAPABILITIES, A CLASS HE SET RECORD WORLD OF 53,573.96FT The aircraft was built to be fool- The E-Systems owned the first proof, according to Enevoldson, a a proof, according to Enevoldson, pilot, who trained retired US Air Force with the Boscombe Down based before Pilot School Empire Test retiring Dryden. After joining NASA Enevoldson helped Grob from NASA, with the design of the Egrett. He wanted an aircraft that was easy to climb could take off in all weather, fly, to 50,000ft, loiter in a race track for eight hours and then land in 20 minutes. fitted with various sensor example, and Grob flew the second, packages, renaming it Strato 1 to market The prototype D-450The flew development aircraft by Einar Enevoldson. on 24 June 1987, piloted a prove its high altitude capabilities he set To 53,573.96ft class world record of 1988. (16,329.35m) on 1 September aircraft known pre-production Two as the D-500 Egrett II followed in the design edged 1989 and 1990, as on came which towards certification, 13 September 1991. Production AEROSPACE Germany’s U-2 Alan Warnes G 520T dual seater

After the LAPAS project was cancelled, Grob sold the dual-seat G 520T to the DLR (German Aerospace Centre) in Cologne, which eventually sold it onto the Flinders University of South Australia in Adelaide during 1997. Operated by the Airborne Research Australia (ARA) and registered as VH-ARA it was based at Parafield airport (18km north of Adelaide) for various scientific programmes. During a 2006 project known as the Egrett Microphysics with Extended Radiation and Lidar experiment (EMERALD-1), the Grob 520T was used to collect turbulence, heat and water vapour flux data found in cirrus clouds. The aircraft was grounded in 2007, as there were no funds to carry out a 1,000hr inspection on the engine. Having been laid up for six years, Grob bought the aircraft back in 2013. Tom Reinert, test-pilot for Grob, flew to Parafield to supervise engineers preparing the aircraft to fly again. Tom, told the author: “We took the TPE331 engine out of the fifth G520 (10005) which had only flown The aircraft could be used for a multitude Grob test pilot Tom Reinert around 15hr at that time and shipped it to Parafield of military surveillance missions, including the sits in the front cockpit for the dual-seater. At the same time we also maritime role, with an appropriate maritime radar. of the Grob 520T before setting off on another upgraded the avionics in the aircraft and then I Alternatively, it may be used for civilian applications. mission. The Grob 520T’s learnt to fly the aircraft in early June 2014.” He was For example, loaded with a SATCOM, it could act analogue dials will be trained by Group Captain Steve ‘Wedge’ Young, a as a satellite relay system during a disaster relief replaced by a GenesyS former commander at the RAAF Edinburgh flight mission, datalinking images and information to the digital system in the near test centre who had flown the aircraft. Together, ground. future. they planned to fly the aircraft back to Europe but, The equipment bays are heated or cooled, as are because of repeated delays when the time came, the cockpits, to maintain a temperature-controlled Young could not go. So Tom left Adelaide Airport on environment. The bays can be configured to 5 June 2014 with a mechanic in the back seat for a accept various customer payloads, such as electro- week-long ferry that saw them fly eight legs, arriving optical sensors, radar, LIDAR (Light Detection and at Grob’s Tussenhausen headquarters just west of Ranging), SIGINT (Signals Intelligence), as well as Munich on 12 June. scientific/research payloads for high altitude long endurance applications. The maximum range at The platform altitude is about 1,500m (2,800kms) but, as Tom explained “it wasn’t designed for range but for an Looking at the Grob 520 and its 33m (100ft) wings, eight-hour duration, with a typical 100kt at FL450.” and stubby fuselage it is clear that this is no normal The aircraft has dual GPS and is all-weather aircraft. The modular fuselage structure is one of (IFR/icing) capable and dual certified under US many reasons why this unique aircraft could be an regulations as experimental and normal. easy-fit for today’s surveillance missions. The entire “To counter all the different payload weights, lower section is not part of the aircraft’s structure, so we have up to 100kg of ballast in the tail which we greatly simplifying ease of access and modification can take out when required.” Tom adds, “from an for payload configurations, all packed into the aerodynamic design with its long 33m (100ft) wings world’s only CS/FAR 23 aircraft certified to fly at and slender fuselage the aircraft can loiter and burn 50,000ft (15kms). little fuel.” The U-Bay in the centre of the lower section, On flying the aircraft, Tom said: “Grob 520 pilots also known as Bay 13, is a modular payload earn their money during the first ten minutes and compartment, and Tom, a former Luftwaffe Tornado last ten minutes of each sortie. The controls are pilot, told the author: “The sensors can easily be heavy down low but lighter at high altitude. When fitted in there and connected to the bus system to on the ground it is very susceptible and has a 15kt power them. If you need to switch the payload, say cross wind limit. The dual seater can be steered by after a first mission, all you need to do is undo the the nose wheel but, in the single-seater, taxiing is four screws to detach the compartment from the done by differential braking. You also have to be aircraft’s main structure and install a different pre- aware of the long wings which can flex a lot when configured U-Bay with sensors.” she’s in the air and during turbulence.”

22 AEROSPACE Alan Warnes look 250 miles beyond line of sight (BLOS), whereas the cheaper PT-6 will only fly you up to 45,000ft but you are still seeing 235 miles.” He added: “For every 5,000ft you climb, you gain 15nm of BLOS but is that worth the cost of a pressure suit and the necessary life support equipment? Our potential customers don’t think so and most don’t have the equipment to see that far anyway.” H3Grob has modified the Grob 520T with a total-authority autopilot, thus converting it into an optionally piloted vehicle (OPV), with a side-stick installed in the rear cockpit for the first flights to control the autopilot. With Tom sitting in the aircraft as the pilot in control, the 520T was flown by an operator in the ground station or via the flight management system flight plan. Around 50hr of flight-testing has been completed so far. The OPV gives you the option to fly the aircraft in controlled airspace with a rated pilot and, when you are in a ‘war zone’, you take the pilot out and The dual-seat G 520T High-flying glider tug D-FHHH is involved in control it from the ground payload trials and is playing As part of the Airbus Perlan II experiment Airborne The single-seater Grob 520NG (10005 a part in the aircraft’s Resources Inc’s Arne Vasenden used his Grob /D-FAHH) has been upgraded with a Garmin 600 continued evolution. The 520 N5410 for the highest-ever known glider tow. digital glass cockpit and there are plans to modify the grey area below the black Perlan II is a pressurised, two-place, space capsule dual seater with a new GenesyS system. The optional line is a modular payload with glider wings designed to use only the power operator console in the rear cockpit can offer two compartment which can be detached from the aircraft. of stratospheric mountain waves to fly as high as large, high resolution 23” touch screen displays, plus 90,000ft.” two foldable 12” side displays. The sensor operator The aircraft pulled the Airbus Perlan II from can conveniently work with a full keyboard, hand 20 August to 12 September 2018 into the skies controller units and a camera grip. The rear cockpit over Patagonia, Argentina. Basically, Arne gave could be alternatively configured in a dual role mode the Perlan II a ‘leg-up’ to the stratosphere without for platform training or multi-pilot missions. the glider pilots toiling for hours to get up there. On the G 520NG Tom said, “We have a lead After the first test flight when Vasendan took the in time of 18 months to build an aircraft and we aircraft up to just 11,000ft, to check out conditions already have a mock-up built by tools we have, to and the new towing system customised for the G verify the mould. We are optimistic that it will go 520, the next eight went up to 40,000ft or above. into production.” But why would a customer opt for During the last mission on 12 September, Vasenden a Grob 520NG rather than say, a Global Hawk? took the G 520 up as high as 45,100ft, where it “We are basically a lot cheaper than a Global Hawk, released the Perlan II which then climbed another which costs around $280m without the sensor 20,000ft up to 65,000ft before returning to Earth. package, plus 20 guys to operate it. The G 520NG It is probably appropriate here to mention that the with sensor suite – radar systems and datalink, Perlan project team was awarded a bronze medal would probably cost a fraction of that and the big by the Royal Aeronautical Society on 26 November bonus for some customers is it would be ITAR free.” 2018 in recognition for ‘its notable contribution to Tom added, “The customer could have a 24 hour the advancement of aerospace’. persistent surveillance with three aircraft flying eight hour turns – one operating with the U-Bay New generation modifications sensor load, replaced by a second with a similar configuration while the third is being fitted with first While the 1478hp Garrett TPE331-14F (flat rated aircraft’s U-Bay load.” to 750 SHP) is the aircraft’s current power plant, in There is still a lot of life left in this design, 33 the new generation G 520NG it would be replaced years after the first aircraft made its first flight. by the modern Pratt & Whitney PT-6 turboprop. It Today’s Grob 520NG could easily fulfil the ISR needs does not have the fuel benefits of the Garrett engine of air forces not blessed with a massive budget and and only has a ceiling of 45,000ft but Tom explains secondly its non-ITAR. More countries, particularly why this is preferred: “We listen to our customers in the Middle East, are now leaning towards non- and the engine is a big price point for this aircraft. US-produced systems in order to get around the The original TPE331 could get you up to 50,000ft to burdensome restrictions imposed by the US.

The Route to Air Power 2040, RAeS Conference – 6-7 October 2020

SEPTEMBER 2020 23 GENERAL AVIATION NHS Spitfire

Signed Spitfire scrambles to lift nation’s spirits

Exactly 80 years on from the Battle of Britain, an unarmed blue Spitfire has been lifting the spirits by touring the UK to say ‘Thank You NHS’ to those on the front- line battling Covid-19 in hospitals. TIM ROBINSON FRAeS reports from the Aircraft Restoration Company (ARCo), Duxford, home of the ‘NHS Spitfire’ – which is now raising money for NHS Charities.

ome 80 years ago the sight and sound of Romain was hooked on aviation from an early age Merlin-powered fighters scrambling from from watching the 1969 film, The Battle of Britain, RAF Duxford airbase lifted the spirits of filmed at Duxford in a time when, oddly, there were those living though the dark days of the few Spitfires and almost no Hurricanes flying. Battle of Britain when, for the person in Today, Romain is one of the the most experienced Sthe street, the country was in wartime lockdown, Nazi warbird pilots, with over 4,500 hours (over 1,000 of invasion could occur at anytime and no one had any these on Spitfires), as well as hours on the type’s idea when this would go on for. WW2 deadly enemy, the Me109 – both in the Today, a single blue Spitfire, with ‘Thank U NHS’ Spanish Buchon and the original Emil. As well as painted on the underside, is also bringing a spark warbird display flying, Romain is also much in demand of joy to those on the front line of the fight against for aerial stunt work for TV and films, flying a Buchon Covid-19 by performing flypasts of Britain’s hospitals. in Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, as well as flying a It is also flying with a rapidly growing number of Cessna floatplane in the upcoming 007 film No Time handwritten names of the lost loved ones, friends, To Die. doctors, nurses and essential workers in aid of NHS Meanwhile, ARCo, formed in 1991, has Charities Together. developed a reputation, under Romain’s direction, for The initiative is the brainchild of warbird pilot, engineering excellence and pristine rebuilds of unique engineer and owner of Duxford’s Aircraft Restoration and rare historic aircraft, from the Bristol Blenheim Company (ARCo), John Romain. A legendary figure to the ‘Dunkirk Spitfire’ and the ‘Silver Spitfire’ that

George Romain/ARCo in the vintage aircraft display and restoration circuit, flew around the world in 2019. It also performs heavy

24 AEROSPACE maintenance for the RAF Battle of Britain Memorial Flight’s Lancaster at its Duxford base.

Full circle

If there is a sense of history repeating itself in a Spitfire being used to raise morale during a national crisis, then for this particular aircraft and its owner, there is also a sense of events coming full circle. Romain and this PR MkXI ‘L’ go back a long way and, ironically, it was the first ever Spitfire he saw in the flesh in 1969 at an air show in Old Warden, Shuttleworth. “I have a picture of my mother and my brother and I standing in front of that actual aeroplane outside the restaurant. That was the first Spitfire I had ever seen as a young boy”. Once raced by ATA woman pilot Lettice Curtis (whose signature is on the fuselage), the Merlin- powered PR XI, with a one-piece unarmoured photo- recce front canopy, is now Romain’s ‘personal’ Spitfire and pride and joy, with only himself and one other ARCo pilot allowed to fly it. “It is not just the sky blue PR scheme of this sleek aircraft that make it suitable for the task,” says Romain. “It’s just the right aeroplane for the message we’re sending out because it never carried guns. It’s just a beautiful Spitfire that carried cameras. So it’s right for this job.” Its speed and, as a reconnaissance machine, its range, also make it perfect for covering the ground and overflying the UK’s hospitals which, as Romain ruefully notes, there are a ‘surprising’ number of, something that was not apparent when he gave himself this challenge.

How it started

How then did a couple of local flights by a private warbird owner snowball into a national aerial tour of NHS hospitals and flying tribute to front line health workers? Like all good ideas, it started almost by accident. With the country in strict lockdown earlier this year, all private GA flying was curtailed. However, that was eased to allow essential engine flight tests to take place but only within a 10mile radius. John Romain explains: “It started during the lockdown period when no one was flying. ‘L’, our MkXI Spitfire, was just coming to the end of a repair. We decided to spend some of the lockdown period repairing her and getting her finished. By the end of that time, of course, she needed air testing and we were allowed to carry out necessary air testing but only within 10 nautical miles of Duxford. We got her airborne mid- afternoon on one Thursday and did the first air test.” The flight saw ARCo’s phones ring off the hook and a deluge of emails when John returned from this flight. He takes up the story: “The phone started ringing. It was all people who had seen the aeroplane flying close to Duxford near the villages

SEPTEMBER 2020 25 GENERAL AVIATION NHS Spitfire

around here. They all called in support and just said push it out to their hospitals to be on the look-out “Thank goodness, how lovely it is to see a Spitfire for the flypast, as well as sending to local press. The flying again”. Like many other towns and villages over aeroplane also flew for the 72nd anniversary of the the country, they were doing the 8 o’clock ‘Clap for NHS, as well as over the Silverstone Grand Prix, Carers’ for the NHS that week. So we decided to spreading the message even further. do the second test flight at 8 o’clock, which we did. For Romain the challenge is not only finding the We centred it on my home village and then did a few smaller hospitals from the air (a task that the WW2 others where some of my relations live, all within this recce pilot would be intimately familar with) but also 10 mile radius of Duxford and the response from that in circling the building to display the message painted was huge. People absolutely loved it.” underneath while keeping clear of restricted airspace After some local flights, the idea grew further and watching for other airspace users before flying before the final ‘Clap for Carers’ when John’s son on to the next hospital. Says Romain: “There is a little George noticed the similarity between the RAF photo bit of choreography which comes with it to make sure reconnaissance blue scheme of the aircraft and the that, firstly, I’m not flying over something I shouldn’t be NHS blue. A light bulb went off. Relates Romain: “We and, secondly, to make sure they get the message.” thought, well, we’ll obviously do the last one and then From the air, people are often out in car parks, my son George said “We should write underneath gardens or even on the roof to wave at the Spitfire ‘Thank You NHS’ for the last of the claps.” So we overhead. “The feedback from the ground is great with marked it all out, we painted it on with removable a lot of people watching. You can definitely see them paint, and flew that last clap. Of course the response and the bigger response on the ground, the better.” from that was even greater because suddenly now Having covered most of the southeast of we’ve got an aeroplane that has got ‘Thank You NHS’ England (including NHS Nightingale) in this tour of underneath it. We also flew around Cambridge and UK hospitals, ARCo and Romain plan to tour the did Addenbrooke’s hospital. That was the first real link rest of the UK, including Wales and Scotland before of the NHS people themselves actually having seen the aircraft will appear at the Battle of Britain 80th the aeroplane. Here were people who were actually Anniversary Air Show at Duxford on 20 September. working in the NHS that were seeing it and reading This will see the NHS Spitfire fly with the Red Arrows the message.” to close the show on both days – a fitting finale to This tribute produced even more of a response this aerial tour of thanks to frontline workers. from those hard-pressed health workers that looked up and saw the Spitfire and its message, with Romain Sign for a Merlin and ARCo then getting in touch with the NHS directly to inquire about which hospitals had been hardest hit Having captured the public’s attention, expressions and might appreciate a flyover of thanks. of support and love that came flooding in for these impromptu flypasts also set off another idea. Says Below left: John Romain’s Flights for your lives Romain: “We had more emails and more calls from wife, Amanda, hand- people who wanted somehow to support it. We writing the names on the Spitfire. With word now spreading fast and support growing, thought about that and decided that we aren’t looking Below right. John Romain the NHS Spitfire flypast has now turned into a routine for people to sponsor this aeroplane, so what we’ll do and ‘L’ – his Spitfire flying operation, in partnership with the NHS. A route is to form a JustGiving page (www.justgiving.com/ PRXI – 51 years ago, this is planned, with hospitals circled, timings worked fundraising/nhsspitfire). They can make a donation was the very first Spitfire out and then forwarded to the NHS which then (minimum £10) which goes to the NHS Trusts he saw at an air show. George Romain/ARCo

George Romain/ARCo

26 AEROSPACE Together charity and, in recognition of that donation, Symbol of hope they can nominate a name which will be handwritten actually on the Spitfire.” Some cynics might argue that any comparisons The idea of paying tribute to your personal between that summer of 1940 and 2020’s ‘Darkest pandemic heroes and heroines with their name Hour’ are unhelpful and ill-judged. Why, one might handwritten (by John’s wife Amanda) on the NHS ask, use a warplane, (even an unarmed one) to Spitfire is proving to be massively popular. He adds: reinforce jingoistic myths, when the enemy is not “That’s brought us obviously a huge amount of remote Luftwaffe bombers but a cold and indifferent virus interest from people who have wanted to have their that will be stopped by a vaccine and good hygiene, names or the name of their loved ones or the name of rather than aerial heroics? the doctor or a ward in an NHS unit. They are being However, this perhaps misses the power of written onto the Spitfire as they come in. Currently, symbolic gestures to strengthen and comfort us there are over 1,600 names on the aeroplane and the in times of crisis. Many of us, as in 1940, have fund to the NHS charity is going up by the day.” The sacrificed much in trying to defeat this virus, some Spitfire has space for 80,000 signatures over it. have paid the ultimate price and the overall battle The emotional impact of having your friend, is still not won. In times like these, symbols of hope, family member, doctor or nurse’s name flying on a common effort and national unity are needed, Spitfire paying tribute to the NHS’s own ‘Finest Hour’ whether it is ‘Dig For Victory’ or ‘Clap for Carers’. A has sometimes been overwhelming, says Romain: “I solitary Spitfire, with its unmistakable shape and don’t know what it is about the Spitfire but they find Merlin growl, flying over the UK in lockdown has attachment and certainly putting the names on it has been able to connect and touch so many people, created even more of an attachment. So they feel isolated in their homes, as the ultimate symbol of part of it, which is great. We’ve had people in here defiance, survival and eventual victory. Indeed, with last night just randomly call from a local village to say pilots from New Zealand, Poland, Czechoslovakia, that their daughter worked in an intensive care unit Canada and the US coming together to defend and her name was on there. They came in, spent half Britain, it can be argued it is an international emblem an hour looking at the aeroplane, found her name of freedom. It is this attachment and love that people and got pictures. They said: “We feel part of it now. have for the Spitfire – that Romain, ARCo and the It flies over, we see it and we know our daughter’s NHS Spitfire have tapped into by giving people the name is on it. It’s fantastic, we love it.” opportunity to put their Covid-19 heroes’ names on Giving people the opportunity to say thanks, this symbol of hope. When the NHS Spitfire closes pay tribute or feel like they have a personal stake in the Duxford Air Show in September, there is unlikely a fighter that is carrying a message is yet another to be a dry eye in the house. link to 1940, where the public were encouraged to The Spitfire is more than an aerial machine of turn ‘Saucepans into Spitfires’, or clubbed together metal, more than a piece of history - it is now an to donate money to ‘buy’ Spitfires that would then immortal icon that says simply ‘never, ever surrender’, be painted with the names of the towns, boroughs, whatever the odds or however bad things seem. clubs, newspapers, organisations and companies – Some 80 years on, it still has a place in our hearts as well as some pilots who had been lost in battle. and the ability to lift them when it is really needed.

Get your Covid-19 hero’s name on the NHS Spitfire here: www.justgiving.com/fundraising/nhsspitfire SEPTEMBER 2020 27 AIR TRANSPORT Human factors and MRO Dying for a break? Human factors and fatigue management in the MRO sector British Airways

The RAeS Human Factors Group in Engineering (HFG:E) project team: COLLEEN BUTLER, HSE’s Science Division; ANNA VEREKER, Civil Aviation Authority; KAREN ROBERTSON, QinetiQ and SARA BOOTH, Clockwork Research, consider the risks and management of fatigue for aircraft engineers.

iscussion of fatigue in aviation pose significant safety and financial risks to the incidents is often focused on pilots maintenance engineer, the maintenance organisation, and cabin crew, with less attention the aviation industry and the public. The successful provided to maintenance engineers management of fatigue risk in aviation maintenance responsible for round-the-clock is, therefore, a major safety and business opportunity. Dplanned and reactive maintenance of aircraft. The implementation of fatigue risk management However, the fatigue of maintenance engineers systems presents opportunities to optimise engineer has been identified as a contributory factor in alertness and decision making for safety-critical several air accident reports: ‘…improper installation work, to look after their morale and to promote of the split/cotter pin’… ‘fan cowl doors on both healthier work patterns. The reduction in accidents, engines left unlatched..’ are fatigue-related errors absenteeism and staff turnover that can result serves made while performing aircraft maintenance and to improve health and safety outcomes and increase inspection procedures that have led to in-flight productivity. emergencies and fatal accidents(1,2). The financial implications of aviation maintenance What does fatigue look like in the error, even where no accidents occur, can be context of aviation maintenance? substantial. If the crew are forced to shut down an engine in flight and return or divert, even if there The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has is only trivial rectification required, the cost to the defined fatigue as ‘a physiological state of reduced airline can be significant and can increase with mental or physical performance capability resulting aircraft size, passenger numbers and volume of fuel from sleep loss, extended wakefulness, circadian dumped. Fatigue risk in aviation maintenance can phase, and/or workload (mental and/or physical

28 AEROSPACE and co-workers conditioning inthecabordrinkingwater).AlanHobbs alertness, ifanyatall(forexample turninguptheair on strategiesthatonlyhaveverybriefbenefitsfor this behaviourmaynotbeevidence-based,relying have accesstosuch bestpracticebehaviours.Equally, documented acrosstheorganisationtoensurethatall strategies areofteninformalandnotshared work and/oruseofchecklists. However, these breaks andbreakfacilityareas,peerchecking of than usualtocompletetasks,useofself-selected pace atwhich tasksarecompleted. of fatiguewhentasksareassignedandchanging the the impactoffatigue,consideringanindividual’s level These includealteringthetimingoftaskstomitigate opportunities forfatigueriskmanagement’solutions. set offatiguechallenges’ andalsohave‘unique other sectors,maintenancepersonnelfacea‘unique undertaken bySimonFolkard in2003 aviation maintenancewerehighlightedinareview lapses a varietyofmaintenanceerrors,includingmemory circadian perspective. is weeklyrotationcanbeoneoftheworstfroma the nightshiftandthatrotatingshiftswherethere the relativeriskofaccidentstendstobehigheston permanent patterns(41%).Research showsthat rotatingand with nightshiftsbeingafeature ofboth work patterns,manyinvolvingrotatingshifts(64%), highlighted includedthewidevarietyofmorethan100 engineers andtheiremployers.At thetime,issues included asurveyoflicensedaircraftmaintenance errors occurring behaviours’ toreducethelikelihoodoffatigue-related cope withfatigue;theso-called‘fatigue-proofing engineers) developingtheirownstrategiesto attempting tosleepduringtheday. in thewindowofcircadianlowandsleeplossdueto of wakefulness,reducedalertnessduetoworking patterns andhasbeenassociatedwithextended hours Night workisafrequentfeature ofengineeringwork performance mayhavebeencompromisedbyfatigue. long hoursleadinguptothenightshiftandtheir a doublefan-cowllossafterengineersworked For example, in2013aBritish AirwaysA319suffered part thatlongworkhourswithoutabreakcanplay. contributed toaccidentsandincidentshighlightthe practice guidance for managing fatigue in a practice guidance formanagingfatigueina engineers, although theCAA haspublishedbest fatiguemanagementformaintenance about Currently therearenoaviationsafety regulations What doestheguidance say? to performsafety-related operational duties activity) thatcanimpairaperson’s alertnessandability on tasks Some of the characteristics of working in UK ofthecharacteristics ofworkinginUK Some Links have been established between fatigue and Links havebeenestablishedbetweenfatigueand There arereportsofindividuals(pilotsand (5) , takingshortcuts (6) . Examples of where fatigue may have . Examplesofwherefatiguemayhave (6) (7) have highlighted that, compared to havehighlightedthat,comparedto . These includetakingmoretime (5) , and difficulty concentrating , anddifficultyconcentrating (4) . The research (3) .’   are: FRMS fatigue riskbutthekeyelementsofanysuccessful There isno‘onesizefitsall’solutiontomanaging Implementing aFRMS requirements developments withinEASA regulations. UnderICAO forAirworthinessispartoffuture System (SMS) the workforceandbusinessprioritieschange. management astherequirementsanddynamicsof eliminated; itisonethatrequiresconstantflexible work isessential.Fatigue isnotahazardthatcanbe Providing adequateopportunityforrestawayfrom for lowalertnesstimesandcumulativefatigue. best useofpeakalertnesstimes,andtomitigate tasks, shifts,restbreaksandroutinestomakethe rhythms andworkloadparameters)tostructurework known physicallimitations(forexample circadian large one. for asmalloperationwillnotnecessarilywork fatigue withintheiroperationalcontext; whatworks for flexibility inthewaythatorganisations manage asahazard.This allows captured withintheSMS related hazardsarebeingidentified’, andfatigueis American Airlines maintenance environment   act. Anorganisation wouldregularlycheck inwith andflexibilityto Regular communications their specificoperationalenvironment. able totailorprocesses,procedures andtrainingto priorities forfatigueriskmanagement andwillbe overview, theorganisation willbeabletoidentify considering rosteroptions,andworkload. With this methods such assurveysandfocusgroups, of fatiguehazardsintheiroperation–usingmultiple organisations areencouragedtoobtainanoverview offatiguerisk.Asastartingpoint, Understanding The intentoffatiguemanagementistoworkwith (9) thismeansthat‘Humanperformance- (8) . The Safety Management SEPTEMBER 2020 SEPTEMBER 29 AIR TRANSPORT Human factors and MRO

employees about their fatigue levels and would have are solely within the control of the maintenance the flexibility to adjust schedules, breaks and tasks organisation. It is also important that personnel as needed to accommodate variances. understand their role and take responsibility for using their rest facilities and the time provided for  Physical and emotional support. Support would be available for issues affecting an employee’s rest appropriately to ensure that they are fit for work. ability to gain adequate rest, including options  Reporting and responding. There is benefit in around childcare and family support, adequate organisations introducing a fatigue reporting system bedding and sleeping facilities (where employees once mitigation of fatigue risks is established within sleep in company-provided accommodation), and the organisation. The reporting system would be support for anxiety and pressure if these issues supported with the ability to respond to reports, or impacted staff rest. risk being considered ineffective by personnel. If an event/maintenance error occurs where fatigue  Acknowledgement of organisational pressures. Business pressures would be acknowledged is suspected to have been involved, then the organisation would have the capability to investigate

British Airways this. This provides a valuable feedback loop into the FRMS and wider SMS .  Training tailored to organisational needs. Effective training on the management of fatigue is essential for all areas of the organisation – including those who write schedules, management, safety and human factors teams, and maintenance engineers. Training should be designed to meet the needs of the population being trained, rather than simply ‘off-the-shelf’. However, training is not a complete solution for managing fatigue; it simply provides knowledge. Personnel must have an opportunity to implement this knowledge within a supporting system to positively impact fatigue.

The bottom line… Fatigue is not a hazard that can be eliminated; rather, and catered for, with a clear ‘stop point’ if these it is one that requires constant flexible management pressures accumulated to a level where employees as the requirements and dynamics of the workforce were becoming overstretched. Seasonal differences and business priorities change. Included above are in work would be accommodated, and extra both cautionary notes about the consequences of personnel or other resources provided as needed to failing to manage fatigue effectively, and ideas for meet the business objectives. more successful management of a maintenance  Understanding of shared responsibility. Fatigue engineer’s fatigue. This is an ongoing challenge management would be understood as a joint which requires commitment from both maintenance responsibility between the business and individuals. organisations and their personnel. Many of the factors which can influence fatigue

References (1) Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB) Report on the accident to Airbus A319-131, G-EUOE London Heathrow Airport, 24 May 2013. Aircraft Accident Report 1/2015. (2)  Accident Report NTSB/AAR-13/01 PB2013-103890, National Transportation Safety Board (2013), N37SH Near Las Vegas, Nevada, US, 7 December 2011. (3) Loss of Control Sundance Helicopters, Inc. Eurocopter AS350-B2, International Civil Aviation Organisation (2011) Fatigue Risk Management Systems: Implementation Guide for Operators. www.icao.int/safety (4) Work hours of aviation maintenance personnel. Safety and Airspace Regulation Group Report, CAA Paper 2002/6 (2003), Civil Aviation Authority UK. (5) Hobbs, A, Williamson, A (2003) Associations between errors and contributing factors in aircraft maintenance, Human Factors, 45, (2), pp 186-201. (6) Fatigue Risk Management in Aviation Maintenance: Current best practices and potential future countermeasures. Hobbs, A, Avers, K B and Hiles, JJ (2011) FAA Report DOT/FAA/AM-11/10. Office of Aerospace Medicine, Washington, DC, US. (7) Fatigue Proofing: The role of protective behaviours in mediating fatigue-related risk in a defence aviation environment. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Dawson, D, Cleggett, C, Thompson, K, Thomas, M J W, (2017), 99, pp 465-468. (8) Aviation Maintenance Human Factors, (EASA JAR 145 Approved Organisations), UK CAA (2003) CAP 716. (9) Safety Management Manual, third edition, ICAO (2013) Doc 9859/AN/474. (10) Clockwork Research (2017) A Framework for Investigating Fatigue. Clockwork Research White Paper 17/01.

Maintaining Wellbeing: opening up in the maintenance environment RAeS Human Factors Engineering Group Conference – 20 May 2021

30 AEROSPACE AEROSPACE Risk management Managing risk back to basics? Virgin Galactic

In recovering from the disruption caused by the Covid-19 virus, in addition to a Brexit with a potential ‘no deal’, a key tool in the corporate toolkit will be effective risk management. RAeS Past-President LEE BALTHAZOR FRAeS explains.

n these unprecedented times of national in improved oversight of risks for business and emergency, some aerospace professionals organisations but risks still keep turning into remain busy, at their place of work or working problems. So – what may be going wrong? from home. However, many others will have We do not yet know enough about Covid-19 been furloughed. Such time of enforced at the time of writing to understand how it may Iabsence from normal working may provide the affect our future – and there will still be Brexit opportunity for continuing professional development to manage, as the UK Government continues – the hallmark of an aerospace professional. with policies which may result in a ‘no deal’ exit. This article assumes that the reader is already Industry and commerce will have to ensure that familiar with risk management concepts and aims future risk management plans can deal with the to provide an opportunity to improve capability in ongoing effects of both, as well as improving the effective risk management by understanding some management of the programmes already in place of the basic principles that may be deficient in which have overrun and overspent and which are current risk management strategy and processes. now subject to major disruption. So this might be The author has experience of managing risk and a good opportunity to remind ourselves of some of providing risk management training in industry of the basic questions which should always be and academia – some of which has revealed that, asked about our risk approach. Business continuity despite risk management strategies and plans being plans are a fundamental part of effective risk in place, some aerospace companies, and many management and they will be playing a key part in small and medium enterprises, do not always fully any recovery. I will, however, focus on operational apply the basics of effective risk management. The risk management processes. following points may seem common sense but they all come from real life examples of failure to apply Does the culture encourage key principles that resulted in very real problems. everyone to raise risks? Corporate governance failures, financial failures (eg the 2008 global financial crisis) and continuing In the bid phase of potential business, it is crucial major project cost and time overruns have resulted to involve all functions in risk identification so that

SEPTEMBER 2020 31 AEROSPACE Risk management

the risks throughout the life cycle of the project are understood – before commitment! As with any enterprise management, leadership is key. Senior management must encourage everyone to have the responsibility of being ‘risk SENIOR aware’, of identifying risks that they see in their MANAGEMENT own area or indeed elsewhere. Unless risks are visible for assessment, key risks may never appear MUST on a risk register for management action. This ENCOURAGE should not mean a massive database but an initial EVERYONE review and assessment to determine whether it is a valid cause for concern, or indeed an opportunity TO HAVE THE which can be used to advantage (about which, RESPONSIBILITY more later). The principle here is to draw upon OF BEING ‘RISK everyone’s experience of their work area and the Figure 1. A systematic risk management process. AWARE’, OF uncertainties ahead by including in risk reviews all those personnel who might be able to contribute, IDENTIFYING whatever their level. Yes, it does take up human RISKS THAT resources but even more so does ‘firefighting’ a adhering to the processes of a systematic approach THEY SEE problem that emerges later, which was known but without adding flexibility to rapidly respond to IN THEIR not raised to a high enough level for action. This is a changing risk exposure may result in becoming key area where leadership is important – structures mired in detail when the best business judgement OWN AREA should be firmly in place to help ensure that all may be a pragmatic approach. Indeed, the need for OR INDEED views can be taken into account, not just those of a dynamic system is a key element of value creation ELSEWHERE dominant managers. and protection. Concerns are often raised by junior staff that there are insufficient resources. This is usually Do you know the business and project critical countered by managers commenting that the success factors for all stakeholders? allocated budget or time is all that is available. Figure 1 shows a systematic process that starts However, making visible the risk that continuing with understanding the relationship between the with limited resources could delay completion may business and project critical success factors for help provide the justification for a change, or at all the stakeholders before you start on the risk least raise management awareness of the risk in management process itself. Too often the risk focus the programme so that they can better judge where is too narrow – if risks of other stakeholders are not to apply limited resources. It was earlier noted understood, you may be unaware of how their risks that another dimension of risk is opportunity – this may impact you later. Perhaps even more important situation can also be seen as an opportunity to find is to start with a clear understanding of your own a more efficient way to achieve the objective. business and project critical success factors. If you Risk ownership is also important: assigning a know these, then there may well be the chance risk to a risk owner and giving them the resources for you to identify opportunities to improve the to manage the risk, means that the risk is less likely business, as well as threats that may prejudice their to be overlooked as it is a personal objective to achievement. be managed. This principle is sometimes difficult to apply when a risk crosses departmental or Are key assumptions visible? organisational boundaries but focusing on this There is always uncertainty ahead and different principle can help identify clear interfaces and perspectives and responsibilities usually result handovers of responsibility. in different assumptions about the future. It is absolutely vital therefore, to make key assumptions How systematic are the risk visible so that they may be challenged and agreed processes? as the basis for risk analysis and action.

For many years now, there has been a recognition Does the assessment take a life cycle that the key to effective risk management is a approach? systematic process. Currently, the international Never create a risk plan alone! Involve all functions standard ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management across the whole life cycle of the project, not just Guidelines provides a globally accepted systematic your own. Different departments may see risks that approach. The standard details the three key you may be unaware of. ‘Brainstorming’ techniques axes of Principles (centred on value creation are essential to help identify a range of potential and protection), Framework (leadership and risks. Some organisations ensure that they bring commitment) and Process. However, rigidly in people from other projects or organisations to

32 SEPTEMBER 2020 Figure 2. Cause-effect analysis. Figure 3. Risk impact diagram.

enhance the opportunities for creative thinking mitigation action actually takes place and identifies about what may lie ahead. if the risk exposure changes. (The failure to have sufficient ventilators, personal protective equipment How structured is the creation of the risk and testing kits available to the NHS in the current definition? pandemic may prove to be a pertinent example of Risk may be defined as a potential problem or not regularly reviewing a known risk and triggering opportunity, a combination of probability and impact. in time the contingency plans that were in place.) To understand project timescale risk, critical path analysis is absolutely crucial. Risk management Effective risk management modelling software is available that can model risk must consider both threats and variations to project critical path analyses and is opportunities used in some large and complex projects. Modelling can be very powerful in understanding risk but only Systematic risk management started out by just if you have sufficient data to analyse. However, looking at threats – what might go wrong. However, for any project, a tool from the Quality Assurance in recent years it has been widely used to also toolkit, the Ishikawa diagram, is a powerful and identify opportunities. Taking more risk may yield simple approach to help improve the understanding more reward but, if you assess the future in a more of risk probability and impact. Both Figures 2 and systematic way, you have the chance to identify 3 illustrate how this might be used, by considering opportunities you might have missed, or make a drivers which might influence a risk that has been better decision on which risk to take. The stack identified in terms of causes and effects. The drivers of AEROSPACE magazines which you have been ‘people’, ‘processes’, ‘money’ and ’material’ are meaning to read when you have time, contains common categories but any key driver affecting the many articles about future challenges such as risk could be used. ‘Blueprint’, that may give ideas about sources of risk The ‘drivers’ can now be populated with relevant opportunities to be exploited. detail. For example, issues such as resource constraints or lack of training can be included in Conclusion ‘people’ driver. The ‘consequences’ can now be populated. This review has highlighted some of the areas For example, the impact of late delivery on ‘money’ where risk management may not be as effective might be penalty clauses, the impact on ‘people’ as it could be. It does not cover every area of might be having to pay overtime. improvement but key areas that are likely to have most impact. There are many threats and How to ensure the agreed action happens? opportunities ahead for the aerospace industry Regularly review – business recovery from the Covid-19 virus, A key principle of effective risk management is that disruptive technology, digitisation, remote working, action agreed to mitigate, or to trigger points for Brexit, climate change emergency, etc – for which initiation of a contingency plan in case a perceived systematic effective risk management should be of risk becomes likely, must be regularly monitored great value. Being aware and taking account of the and reviewed. This helps ensure that the agreed pointers above should help.

SEPTEMBER 2020 33 SHOW REPORT FIAConnect 2020 FIA Connect A virtual Farnborough TIM ROBINSON FRAeS and BILL READ FRAeS report from 'virtual' Farnborough 2020 – a week (20-24 July) of online webinars in place of the traditional air show gathering.

Airbus wins ince 1948, the biannual Farnborough Air impact to UK aerospace going forward, Speaking Skynet upgrade Show has been a must-attend fixture for at the opening ceremony webinar, Airbus CEO contract the global aerospace industry. This year, Guillaume Faury said of a hard Brexit: “We don’t like Airbus Defence and though, was much different. As with other it but it is one problem among others that we have Space has signed a mass gatherings, Farnborough International to solve," while also observing that the crisis could £500m+ contract SAirshow organisers were forced to cancel the event present opportunities, saying: "We hope the UK with the UK Ministry due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As a substitute, 20- ecosystem will be more innovative and competitive". of Defence (MoD) to 24 July saw a 'virtual Farnborough' with over 100 However, in a separate session, Airbus veteran extend and enhance webinars online, ranging from panel discussions on Tom Williams, brought back out of retirement to assist the Skynet military future fighters and sustainable aviation, to technology the UK Aerospace Supply Chain Taskforce, warned communications briefings and Women in Aviation panels, as well as that the UK aerospace sector could be a 'sitting satellite fleet. The the traditional Careers Friday, with its focus on young duck' to rivals which are boosting their industries contract will involve people. The organisers report that this week-long with emergency funding and support and could use the development, digital trade event saw 14,000 online visitors from 97 the Covid-19 crisis to overtake the UK. In June the manufacture, cyber countries, 142 companies and 247 speakers. French Government announced a mammoth €15bn protection, assembly, With civil aviation in deep crisis, the online format package to support its aviation and aerospace sector integration, test and was missing the usual airliner order announcements through this crisis and accelerate green aviation launch, of Skynet 6A. that have, for so long, been a feature of these trade technologies. The contract also covers shows. However, there was no shortage of key topics Though the UK Government had trumpeted technology development to discuss and debate during the week. Let's take some £400m (£200 from industry) in funding for programmes, new a look at some of the major themes and the news aerospace R&D through the Aerospace Technology secure telemetry, announced. Initiative (ATI), this is not specifically aimed at helping tracking and command the sector survive through the current crisis. systems, launch, in-orbit UK aerospace could be a 'sitting duck' testing and ground Covid-19 accelerates change segment updates to The scale of the crisis caused to aviation by the the current Skynet 5 Covid-19 pandemic has had one odd side-effect Not surprisingly, there was much discussion of system. Skynet 6A is in that it has drawn attention away from another the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and its short and due for launch in 2025. looming crisis – that of a hard Brexit and the potential medium-term effects on the global aerospace

34 AEROSPACE The FIA Connect opening ceremony saw a VIP panel of top aerospace leaders, chaired by Peggy Hollinger, Industry Editor Financial Times (top left). Clockwise Guillaume Faury, CEO Airbus, Charles Woodburn, CEO BAE Systems, Victoria Foy, CEO, Safran Seats GB, Tony Wood, CEO, Meggitt, Alessandro Profumo, CEO Leonardo and Jacqui Sutton, CCO, Civil Aerospace, Rolls-Royce. Boeing industry. Many speakers admitted that Covid-19 had Milward from Microsoft, who then went on to explain been a ‘body blow’ that had caused the aerospace how the UK had seen between two to ten years’ industry to focus on survival rather than future worth of technical transformation happening in only investment. However, not all manufacturers have two months. been equally affected. Rodrigo Silva e Souza, Head of Marketing and Strategy at Embraer Commercial Countdown to UK space launches Aviation explained how first signs of recovery in demand for air travel had been for smaller aircraft, At a session on UK spaceports, there was much such as his own company’s E-Jet and that Embraer excitement about the first-ever orbital space launch had not had any order cancellations for either for British soil, set to be in 2022 from Spaceport commercial or business jets. Cornwall. This will see Virgin Orbit use a modified However, the pandemic had also had the Boeing 747 to air-launch a pathfinder payload, using effect of bringing the aerospace (and other its Launcher One rocket. industries) together to work on joint projects Andrew Kuh, Head of International RAF P-8 sub-hunter previously never thought of – such as the UK Spaceflight Policy, UK Space Agency, revealed home handed over Ventilator Challenge where major aerospace that a key US-UK agreement, in the form of the On 23 July, Boeing companies collaborated with companies in the Technology Safeguards Agreement had now UK announced it automotive industry to create medical ventilators been signed, which removed a major obstacle had handed over the for the NHS. “Adapting production and working to US space companies bound by MCTR and keys to the new P-8 with other industry sectors on the Ventilator ITAR technology regulations. This treaty (which strategic facility at Challenge has shown the real spirit of the still needs Parliament to approve) now means RAF Lossiemouth aerospace industry rising to do the seemingly that US companies will be able to launch from to the UK MoD. The impossible,” said Dick Elsy, CEO, High Value UK soil. Some operational 'overheads', such as £100m facility, which Manufacturing Catapult. He explained how US-only secure areas, will still be required and will support 200 skilled the collaboration between the aerospace and operators will need both FAA and UK launch jobs, will be the new automotive sectors was offering the possibility licences – though mutual recognition is planned. hub for the RAF's nine- of co-operation in other areas, such as the With this capability (which also includes other strong P-8 Poseidon development of battery technology. spaceports in the UK), the UK is aiming to beat MPA fleet. The facility Covid-19 has also changed ways of working rivals to be the first Western European country to includes a hangar able and attitudes to new ideas. “Industry doesn’t respect offer direct access to orbit from its soil in a new to take three P-8s, tradition, it respects innovation,” declared Hugh commercial space race. as well as squadron facilities, simulators and training. Bristol start-up reveals plan for 'whisper-quiet' 70-seat hybrid-electric airliner There was exciting news on the first day when a previously unknown Bristol-based start-up unveiled a concept for a 'whisper-quiet' hybrid-electric 70-seat regional airliner (see Blueprint, p4). The team, Electric Aviation Group, believe that current concepts around the sub-19-seat hybrid-electric/electric regional aircraft are too small and the wrong strategy for decarbonisation and mass transport. Its 70-seat Hybrid Electric Regional Aircraft (HERA), would have a range of 800nm, a cruising speed of 275kt and be 50% more profitable than current regional airliners. The aircraft, as conceived, would use serial hybrid-electric technology, with batteries in the fuselage but be able to be converted to other power sources or technologies as they come online. EAG has an ambitious timescale for this aircraft, aiming for a flight demonstrator in 2024 and for it to enter service in 2028.

THE UK HAD SEEN BETWEEN TWO TO TEN YEARS’ WORTH OF TECHNICAL TRANSFORMATION HAPPENING IN ONLY TWO

Electric Aviation Group Electric Aviation MONTHS

SEPTEMBER 2020 35 SHOW REPORT FIAConnect 2020 Rolls-Royce JetZero 2050 target focuses minds ATC/airline efficiency, switching to next gen conventional airliners (A321neo, A350, 787) Despite the aviation sectors' current woes, it was and trajectory optimisation – with the other clear that sustainability was one of the major themes 50% by sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and during the week. The UK's clear commitment to electrification. zero-carbon aviation by 2050, and even a long-haul Rolls-Royce's CTO, Paul Stein, echoed the zero-carbon airliner within a generation, thus helped potential of SAF, saying that they were one of focus minds on this target. The week saw the first the biggest games in town and that "beyond meeting of the UK's high-level JetZero Council, 600-1000miles, most next-gen technologies run chaired by the Prime Minister himself, an example of out of steam". However, he stressed that progress R-R electric the priority now given this goal. had not slowed down with the UltraFan future racer to fly at There was therefore much discussion engine and that there was a host of disruptive, end of year of disruptive technologies, the potential of green technology for smaller eVTOLs, commuter hydrogen and the pathway to zero-carbon and GA aircraft that was being developed. The Another aerospace aviation. However a phrase that came up potential of hydrogen, too, as an zero-carbon energy project delayed by the in more than one session was that there source (especially 'green hydrogen', made from Covid-19 crisis is Rolls- is 'no silver bullet' to achieve this goal and renewable power) came up several times during Royce's 300mph+ it would take a mix of technologies and the week – with Airbus revealing it was working electric racer – the operational procedures to achieve this. to mature this technology. However, the volume sleek-looking ACCEL Consultants Roland Berger, for example, requirements of hydrogen compared to kerosene project, which aims said that the aviation industry could get to means that airframes will have to be designed at the to smash the current 50% of 2050 green targets just with better outset to take advantage of this fuel. world record (213mph) for an all-electric aircraft. Currently under development in Gloucester it was New industry partners join Team Tempest

supposed to have flown BAE Systems back in the spring but first flight has now slipped to the 'end of the year', according to Paul Stein, Rolls-Royce CTO.

Two years ago, the unveiling of the Tempest mock-up (more accurately Future Combat Air Systems – Technology Initiative, FCAS-TI) was the highlight of the Farnborough 2018 Air Show. This year, speaking via video link on the first day, Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace MP announced that seven new UK companies: Bombardier Belfast, Collins Aerospace, GE Aviation UK, GKN Aerospace, Martin Baker, QintetiQ and Thales UK have joined Team Tempest. Saab, too, announced Tempest-related news when it revealed that it would be opening a new £50m FCAS design centre in the UK to support work on Future Combat Air – although, not being a formal member of the Tempest consortium, it did not reference Tempest directly. Finally there was more Tempest-related news on the Wednesday when it was announced that the future combat air initiative had now evolved from bilateral discussions between the UK and Italy/Sweden to a trilateral framework – setting up a firmer foundation for industrial co-operation and collaboration between the three countries. As well as the newly expanded Team Tempest in the UK, this industry effort now includes Leonardo Italy, Elettronica, Avio Aero and MBDA Italia in Italy and Saab and GKN Aerospace Sweden in Sweden. Meanwhile, in another session on FCAS/Tempest, the Chief Scientist of the RAF's Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO) gave some insight into the advanced technology going into Tempest, saying that there were now 100 technology demonstrator programmes and every single one was set to deliver a 'world, European or UK first'.

36 AEROSPACE QinetiQ trials human-UAV teaming QinetiQ

QinetiQ announced it had carried out the first manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) helicopter trials in the UK. The flight tests used a piloted Airbus H125 helicopter and a semi-automous quadcopter UAV, flying over Sailsbury Plain on 19 June. Controlling the UAV using a touch tablet onboard the helicopter, the crew was able to task the drone to seek out and identify targets in a designated area. The trial was undertaken under the auspices of the British Army HQ Research and Experimentation initiative.

The flip side of this acceleration of sustainable which was held at Farnborough in September 2019, aviation, is that the OEM's customers are now this year’s on-line conference featured presentations Raytheon UK fighting for their very survival due to Covid-19 and from many of the key players helping to shape the gets contract for are in no position to buy radical new aircraft or more future of this emerging future aerial transport system expensive SAF fuels. Airbus CTO Grazia Vittadini – including: Boeing NeXt, Lilium, Uber Elevate, GPS anti-jam acknowledged that the crisis would likely delay new Ehang, Future Flight, the FAA, Vertical Aerospace tech airliner launches: "We have seen a shift to the right of and EmbraerX. A wide range of topics were Raytheon UK possible entry points of technology we are developing discussed covering not just the new eVTOL vehicles announced that it but the overall ambition does not change." under development but also the wider ‘ecosystem’ had been awarded of vertiports, air traffic management, internal and a contract by the Can Europe afford two fighter external systems, regulations, safety, certification, UK MoD to develop programmes? environment and social factors. advanced anti-GPS- One surprising conclusion made by the speakers jamming technology. While the Italian/Swedish/UK Tempest fighter was that the onset of Covid-19 has not had such a Already a specialist in project generated headlines this week, a Flight negative effect on the development of UAM than this field, the company Global webinar panel looked more widely at the might be expected. While new entrants to the UAM will run a technology issue of European fighter requirements and whether market are experiencing problems with obtaining demonstrator Europe (including the UK) could afford to run two finance, those companies which already have programme with the competing fighter programmes. In a recent RAeS projects in development are continuing to make goal of developing Sopwith Lecture, Airbus Defence and Space chief progress. smaller and lighter Dirk Hoke reiterated the call for a merged European anti-jamming receivers/ next generation fighter effort to avoid the mistakes of Summary antennas, to fit on the past. However, speaking in the webinar, Douglas a wider range of Barrie, Senior Fellow, Military Aerospace at the IISS, This week then has hammered home what platforms. GPS noted that with a merged single effort: “The problem unprecedented times we are living in. While many jamming, spoofing and at European level (including the UK) is that half the people have previously joked that flying displays were interference has been sector loses out and for those countries that lose on their way out at Farnborough as tighter airspace encountered more out that is very very damaging.” Meanwhile, Teal restrictions and dearth of new aircraft reduced the recently, with Russia Group's Richard Aboulafia, quipping about Paris' love flying display, no one seriously expected that this reportedly using it in of 'Franco-French' defence industrial co-operation, year, 2020s biggest aerospace trade show would be Syria and during NATO asked what would be left for others in European cancelled outright. With the pandemic raging, airlines exercises. FCAS once Dassault, Safran and Thales had been fighting for survival and OEMs downsizing, good allocated work. He said, is that Tempest is viewed, at news stories are thus few and far between. However, least in the US, is a “far more international, far more the discussion and debate around future technology,

global product”. whether it be sixth generation fighters or urban air Raytheon mobility, gave grounds for optimism – even though Urban Air Mobility Summit this pace of change is being forced upon the industry. This 'virtual' Farnborough did in fact show that, The Thursday of the virtual show included an all-day however much the grumbling, deep down, the real air global urban air summit GUAS 2.0 on the latest show is extremely valuable for the global industry. It progress on the development of urban air mobility will therefore be a critical barometer of health as the (UAM). Following on from the first event, GUAS, global aerospace resets and recovers.

RAeS Urban Air Mobility Conference, RAeS Online Conference, 30 September – 1 October 2020

SEPTEMBER 2020 37 AIR TRANSPORT Air bridges and Covid-19

In for the longest haul Blue ocean strategy in the post-Covid-19 era

LINUS BENJAMIN BAUER (Founder and MD) and DANIEL BLOCH (Principal) from Bauer Aviation Advisory report on the potential of air bridges and a ‘blue ocean’ ultra-long-haul strategy to connect low-infection areas of the world.

he implications of Covid-19 has sent the basis of strategic creativity, prioritising human shockwaves throughout the aviation health factors, sustainability and profitability all in industry, sending a myriad of liquidity- tandem. strapped airlines across the globe into administration or part government Making the comeback Townership (Bauer, Bloch and Merkert, 2020). Perhaps most indicative of this, global flight capacity In light of this, various clients, executives, industry has been slashed by up to 90%. To this end, the professionals and trade journalists have come International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forward with the following questions: recently released a new set of revised figures  How do we collectively create demand during a that predicts, as a direct result of the coronavirus, recovery phase, rather than fighting over what the sector will be forced to incur losses between exists? $248bn – $260bn. In turn, the inherent uncertainty levels that are  How and why might genuine cost leaders or synonymous with current times have left a wide differentiators be able to cope better with that array of airlines struggling to navigate uncharted challenging situation? territories. As a result, there is an urgent and  Are there new ways of thinking or approaches in existential call for action across the entire value existence that could upend traditional thinking chain of the sector, which must be founded on about aviation strategy?

38 AEROSPACE 39 SEPTEMBER 2020 Generation of higher seat-load factors and yields,Generation of higher seat-load factors and supported by efficient, twin-engine, long-range aircraft with moderate cabin density and heavy premium configurations – e.g. Boeing 787-9/ Airbus A350-900ULR ultra long-haul affords the operating Point-to-point airline with a heightened level of network flexibility, vis-à-vis hub and spoke operations, with the agile ability to adapt O&Ds based on peaks and troughs in demand, as well as any regional re-emergences of the virus in specific parts of the world uniqueUltra long-haul affords passengers with the health advantage of being able to avoid connecting through a densely populated hub airport Ultra long-haul avoids the heightened complexity associated with connecting at large hub airports, entails an increase in costs, a otherwise which and delays, as higher risk of operational setbacks well as minimising the need for two take-offs and landings on one itinerary The operating airline maintains access to a strong operating airline maintains access The system domestic feeder customer behaviour sees stronger Fast-changing prioritisation of health, security and sanitisation ultra long-haul services provide factors, of which willsignificant benefits. Among travellers, there be a greater willingness to pay for direct services, andespecially among business and visiting friends relatives (VFR) travellers with strong needs and motivation to travel

An expected increase in demand for direct services increase in demand An expected 24-36 next flights) in the (+ domestic feeder months takes place

           Author Via Taking the direct route the Taking prospect, there deeper into this In turn, looking suggest that the Covid-19 is significant scope to foundations for a range of crisis has provided the ultra long-haul blue ocean opportunities to existing this end, ultra long- as Qantas. To operators, such emerging business model haul could become an carriers (FSNCs)for full service network in the the basis and condition of the post-Covid-19 era, on following factors:    Historically in terms of market share, a small Historically in terms of market share, a small On the one hand, this theory provides a strong On the one hand, this theory provides a strong What are the core requirements for strategic for strategic core requirements are the What the post-Covid-19 era? success in models, with of emerging business kind What by blue ocean potential, could be accelerated Covid-19?     group of ‘sharks’, (see image right) namely the (see image right) namely the group of ‘sharks’, Gulf state carriers (EK, QR, EY), have dominated the market, with the remaining competitors across Australia, Asia and the UK classified as ‘bait.’ in recent years, Qantas has sought to However, its service by providing direct, ultra differentiate In and London. operations between Perth long-haul has to date delivered the turn, this new-age approach national carrier significantly strong returns, thereby proving the premise that there is indeed a market for long-range, point-to-point product. a differentiated, theoretical foundation to assess the nature of of theoretical foundation to assess the nature airline business models and how they would respectively go about re-emerging after the it fails to recognise Covid-19 pandemic. However, the volatility and imbalance at present between that some regions of international markets, such the globe will be slower to open up than others, and thereby generating a set of arbitrary ‘winners’ can largely only be attributed to luck. ‘losers’ which airlines to it would allow specific this effect, To the operate approved flights once again, before an airline example, rest of the competition. For as Qantas with the strong future prospect such of an Australia-UK travel bubble opening-up, could look to lay claim over the UK-Australia market from either a price-leadership or product is on the basis standpoint. This differentiation typically operate that Qantas’ competitors, which one-stop itineraries between Australia and Europe, would not be able to return to services as quickly Due to the highly as the Australian national carrier. Route’ competitive market along the ‘Kangaroo (Australia-UK), Qantas competes which within as Emirates and with hub and spoke carriers such can be Singapore Airlines, the market context considered as a red ocean. Let’s try to shed some light on these questions. Let’s around the world will Most strategists at airlines is all aboutagree that business making hard of crucial and often binary decisions, in the midst pathways different trade-offs, that hold vastly strategist economist and business ahead. The that choices breaks down the Porter Michael by claiming that successful companies must make up a position of price firms will either take leadership (eg low-cost carriers) or product (eg full-service network carriers). As differentiators those who fail to identify themselves within such, often encounter difficulties in one or either bracket only ascertaining a competitive advantage, which crisis. becomes further accentuated in a time of

Qantas

IN A POST- COVID-19 A CONTEXT, BLUE OCEAN WILL STRATEGY NEED ONLY NOT TO PURSUE A NEW ANGLE PRODUCT TO DIFFERENT- OR PRICE IATION LEADERSHIP FOR A GIVEN MARKET, ALSOBUT IT MUST WAY A DO SO IN INSTILLS THAT CONFIDENCE BACK AIR TRANSPORT Air bridges and Covid-19 Heathrow AirportHeathrow

All these previously-mentioned factors underserved or changing market spaces are contribute to the creation of new, additional explored in full. demand for direct services between Australia Importantly, in a post Covid-19 context, a ‘blue and Europe in the near future. With this in mind, ocean strategy’ will not only need to pursue a new in such a blue ocean context, airlines can create angle to product differentiation or price leadership demand rather than fight over what exists. In for a given market but it must also do so in a this case, Qantas could create new demand by way that instills confidence back into the base of launching additional ultra long-haul services airline passengers and stakeholders alike. Simply between Perth and other European cities (eg stated, a failure to do so will compromise any new Paris, Frankfurt and Manchester) in addition to the venture’s ability to succeed in a post-pandemic era. existing service to London. Moreover, a double- daily Perth-London service (eg SYD-PER-LHR, Options beyond price wars in addition to the existing MEL-PER-LHR) could also become a viable option in the foreseeable To this end, the airline industry must recognise future. that, over the past years, it has been competing itself to death. On the one hand, fares plummeted Red ocean rivalries to unsustainably cheap levels, both from a financial and environmental point of view, with In the pursuit of sustained and profitable the quality of product and service declining in growth, airlines tend to engage in head-to-head turn. While effective for a portion of the market, competition. Yet in the airline industry, which has this increasingly overbearing approach was not faced crippling overcapacity issues prior to the attractive to other customer segments, who Covid-19 outbreak, head-on competition has longed for access to better products. Several largely only resulted in fierce red ocean rivalries, airlines fell victim to simply following the herd in with a shrinking pool of profit being fought over this regard; however, there have been exceptions. until the end. Rather what must be considered, For example, Qantas through its ultra long-haul now more than ever, is that the establishment approach has sought out an uncontested niche of lasting success more often will come from market that captures a whole new demographic of the creation of blue oceans, in which untapped, additional customers.

Passenger Experience, RAeS Online Conference – 3-4 December 2020

40 AEROSPACE Afterburner www.aerosociety.com

Diary 17-18 September 2020 Extreme Threats to the UK Online Conference in association with RUSI

The Royal Navy’s HMS Vigilant Trident nuclear-powered submarine contributing to NATO’s nuclear deterrent. Crown copyright.

42 Message from RAeS 44 Book Reviews 52 The next generation in RAeS – President Flying Boats, Introduction to Air Transport Conferences Economics, Honest Vision and Apollo in Perspective. “It is almost six months since the start of the The RAeS is launching a new bespoke virtual Covid-19 lockdown and we are now in the stage of events platform in September 2020. This new virtual slowly moving towards life beyond the immediate 48 New Member Spotlight experience being developed has been the result of crises.” extensive research conducted at pace. 50 NAL e-journals – Chief Executive Members from across the world can now read 56 Elections and New Corporate Partner about the latest trends and developments in the “Writing this in what used to be termed ‘the dog world of aviation and aerospace by logging on to 57 Obituary days of August’ emphasises just how much life has the National Aerospace Library’s new e-journals changed of late. Whereas, in the past, Government collection. Carl Graham. slowed down during the summer recess, this year is very different.”

SEPTEMBER 2020 41 Message from RAeS OUR PRESIDENT

Prof Jonathan Cooper It is almost six months since the start of the ● D&I: Do we live-up to our aspirations on diversity Covid-19 lockdown and we are now in the stage of and inclusivity? slowly moving towards life beyond the immediate ● Governance: Does our governance regime crises. Of course, there are still lots of problems insert inertia into the Society’s ability to address across the aerospace and aviation industries, our current and future challenges? if so, what resulting primarily from the dramatic reduction in needs to be changed? flights and demand for new aircraft which continues ● Do we live-up to our mantra of being to affect the airlines, airports, manufacturers, the independent, evidence-based and supply chain, etc and all the people that they employ. authoritative? If not, how should we change We have seen recently that the re-imposition of things? quarantine restrictions for travellers entering the UK ● International: What are our global aspirations from certain countries is going to impose further for membership growth: how do we meet uncertainty for the travelling public. This situation overseas needs? is going to continue well into the New Year and we ● Are we simply too London-centric: how do we all have to continue to learn how to operate in this get out more? What physical facilities would be environment. However, I have been heartened by most appropriate in the future? conversations with colleagues across the industry ● PEI vs learned society: Where should the in large and small companies, many of whom are future balance lie between being a PEI and a Society members, who are getting on with meeting learned society and should we focus more on the many challenges (eg: green aircraft designs) being a training provider? that lie ahead. Similarly, the universities are gearing ● Volunteers: how do we keep them engaged? up to open again this autumn providing ‘blended’ Can we increase this engagement? What are learning (a mixture of digital and face-to-face the effects of an all-digital world on volunteer teaching) for their students. It is good to see that participation? things are starting to move on. ● Youth: Does our delivery model appeal to young As mentioned several times previously in this people? How do we motivate young people and column, the Society needs to continue to look get them involved in the Society? How should it towards the future so that we can remain as the be changed? leading professional membership organisation At the risk of being deluged with emails, if and independent source of knowledge across any Society members have thoughts on any of all aspects of aerospace, aviation and space. It is the above, please can you send them to me on essential that we remain relevant to our current and [email protected] future membership. Over the summer months, I have I am pleased to see that the Society’s conference asked Council to consider the future operation of programme is starting to move into full swing the Society and how these might affect our Vision, from the start of September using our new virtual Mission and Strategic Aims. At the September platform. I would like to highlight two events that Council meeting we will be discussing the outcomes may be of interest to you. The Urban Air Mobility of our considerations, and also the way forward, on Conference https://www.aerosociety.com/ the following questions: events-calendar/raes-urban-air-mobility- ● Culture: Does our culture (both the ‘look and conference-2020/ which will explore the AS MENTIONED feel’ and the ‘way things are done around here’) challenges and opportunities that Urban Air Mobility SEVERAL TIMES reflect the exciting future that will return to the brings, in the context of the fast-evolving ecosystem PREVIOUSLY IN aviation and aerospace sectors and that remains of multi-modal transport, intelligent mobility and the THIS COLUMN, present in the space sector? If not, what needs to ‘door to door’ journeys of people and freight. Also, the change? Air Power conference https://www.aerosociety. THE SOCIETY ● Digital: How should we use virtual tools to com/events-calendar/the-route-to-air- NEEDS TO change our ways of working: Boards and power-2040/ will enable participants to hear from, CONTINUE TO Committees, virtual and hybrid conferencing, NAL, and engage with senior leaders from industry, the how to use digital tools to reach a wider audience military and academia on the factors which will shape LOOK TOWARDS both in geographic and demographic terms and in the way that Air Forces are constituted, prepared for THE FUTURE attracting sponsors? and exercised in delivering Air Power up to 2040.

42 AEROSPACE OUR CHIEF EXECUTIVE

Sir Brian Burridge ● Writing this in what used to be termed ‘the dog June, the CAA published a consultation on the days of August’ emphasises just how much procedure for reviewing the classification of life has changed of late. Whereas, in the past, airspace. Then at ‘virtual Farnborough’ Business Government slowed down during the summer Secretary, Alok Sharma, launched FlyZero. Led by recess, this year is very different. As well as the the Aerospace Technology Institute, FlyZero will management of the ever-increasing complexity kickstart exploration into a zero-carbon emission of Covid-19, there has been a concerted upsurge commercial aircraft and determine the strategic in Departments in making-up for lost time in options for the UK to secure a global lead. We policy work which is keeping us busy. Keeping have also pressed the case for aerospace in the Society occupied is the rapid transition our response to the consultation on the R&D to the virtual environment of our conference roadmap and are placing the same emphasis in programme. This is proving to be a real game- our response to the Comprehensive Spending changer which is described in full elsewhere in Review, initially expected in the Autumn. Here, this edition. Members may also have noticed an the Government’s menu lists aspects such as upswing on the alerts you receive about our new recovering from Covid-19 by focusing on jobs initiatives. Not least among these are the regular and skills, levelling-up economic opportunities insights from our Specialist Groups, Boards across the country and making the UK a scientific and Committees and staff teams. Do please log superpower, all of which play to our strengths. onto your online profile to ensure that you are ● For Corporate Partners the autumn programme kept in touch with the latest information: www. is firming-up. On Wednesday 2 September, aerosociety.com/my-communications David Oxley, the Director of Business Growth ● As more of the long-term impact of the pandemic from the Highlands and Islands Enterprise is becomes clear, we remain concerned about the briefing on the low-cost vertical spaceport in effect on the 800,000 young people aged 18- the north of Scotland which has recently been 24 expected to join the job market this year for granted planning permission. Then, on Monday 12 whom the future must look particularly bleak. A October, Glenn Llewellyn, the VP Zero Emissions recent Sutton Trust survey indicates that just 39% Technology at Airbus, is providing us with an of apprenticeships were continuing as normal engineering insight on his areas of research. This although we know that our sector has a far better neatly follows-on from July’s thought-provoking record. This also emphasises the importance brief by Robert Thompson and colleagues of our work with primary age children. The Cool from Roland Berger on ‘Aviation Sustainability: Aeronautics Programme sponsored by AAR Corp Roadmap to True Zero’ which is now available to had a very successful 2019 programme involving all at: https://youtu.be/-DNglXJLUMU over 1,900 children. With school closures in ● Finally, the Society has vacancies for March, we offered an interactive virtual event Independent positions to serve on our Board of based on a recorded webinar, potentially the Trustees, and the Audit and Finance Committee. first in a series. We asked schools to provide We are seeking experienced individuals with questions to our panel which consisted of four board-level experience, knowledge of the sector, superb young ambassadors who were great with strategic and financial expertise. The https://youtu. communicators: do watch it at: independent members add a greater breadth be/-qrlw1Ov9kE. of experience and knowledge to the Board and ● In the same vein, we will be delivering a webinar THE SOCIETY Committees through working with the Executive and Q&A session at this year’s National Graduate Team and the Trustees. This is a voluntary, HAS Week which profiles three industry sectors, part-time position and requires attendance at VACANCIES FOR including aerospace. Our focus will be on the meetings (mostly remotely) at least four times INDEPENDENT exciting future available to graduates in the per year. The roles offer an opportunity to aerospace industry. We also aim to get graduates POSITIONS contribute to the governance, financial control to think about their ‘21st Century Skills’ that and strategic development of the world’s only TO SERVE ON employers are likely to be seeking in this post- professional body dedicated to the aerospace OUR BOARD Covid world. In addition, our women-to-women community. For further information, please visit OF TRUSTEES, mentoring platform, Alta, will run a Zoom event on www.aerosociety.com/governance. As ever, we ‘The Power of Networking’ on 8 September. AND THE AUDIT are committed to widening the diversity of the ● Given the increased Government activity on Society’s Governance structure and welcome AND FINANCE consultations and initiatives, our External Affairs applications from a broad range of backgrounds COMMITTEE engagement has moved-up a gear. In early and experiences.

SEPTEMBER 2020 43 Book Reviews FLYING BOATS

Air Travel in the Golden Age Above: Short S.30 Empire land-based aircraft would provide the transport. Flying Boat, G-AFCV, However, the real catalyst to technical progress Caribou. RAeS (NAL). By C Woodley was probably the Empire Air Mail Scheme in which, from 1937, Imperial Airways would receive a The History Press, The Mill, Brimscombe Port, subsidy to carry nearly all the mail to South Africa, Stroud, Gloucestershire GL5 2QG, UK. 2018. India and Australasia at the same rate as surface 197pp. Illustrated. £17.99. ISBN 978-0-7509- mail which meant that frequencies and reliability 7014-3. would have to be improved. So it was with these two criteria in mind the airline approached Short Bros It is now some 80 years since Imperial Airways to submit a design which would not only carry the operated routes by Short C Class flying boats out quantities of mail envisaged but also a reasonable of Southampton Water to the Empire and there load of passengers. The Short S.23 was the result will be few left alive today who can say that they in 1935, to be followed in due course by the S.30, experienced the luxury and service of these flights; the first two of a long line of derivations of the Short we are literally speaking of a bygone age. flying boats to fly the routes to the Empire. In his charming book describing ‘Air Travel in the The Short S.23 and S.30 are described in some Golden Age’, Charles Woodley has done a creditable detail, particularly in relation to the furnishings and, job describing what it was like to fly as a passenger for passengers, it was clearly a wonderful experience. in these wonderful ‘boats which flew’ in which he The procedure for passengers leaving the UK was has made good use of the archive material available, that on the night before the flight they would travel at least for the British flying boat era. In his down from London to Southampton by train (Pullman, During the 1920s and 1930s of the past charming book of course) for a departure to Marseilles and Rome century, in terms of luxury a fair comparison could be describing early the following morning. Many of the passengers made between air travel and that by sea, the former kept diaries of their journeys or wrote letters being simply a quicker mode of transport; both were ‘Air Travel in describing the flights and service on board and the used largely by government officials and by those the Golden author makes good use of these. with both the time and wealth to travel in this way. Age’, Charles In subsequent chapters the operations of these Air travel expanded fairly rapidly after WW1 Short flying boats flown by Qantas and Tasman but only for relatively short journeys; airliners had Woodley Empire Airways Limited (TEAL) are described in a low capacity and were constrained by the fact has done a similar way and it comes as a pleasant surprise to that there were few airports with facilities such creditable job read that these operations carried on well into the as radio aids and proper runways of sufficient describing 1950s and even the early 1970s with Ansett and length for heavyweight take offs and landings. In RAI out of French Polynesia. Nearer home, Aquila contrast, most countries had sufficient coastlines what it was Airways – the last airline in the UK to use flying with ports and infrastructure already in place. The like to fly as a boats exclusively – receives an honourable chapter Mediterranean countries were ideally situated in passenger in and in a little more depth than some other airlines. this way (Italy, in particular) and in developing the these wonderful The author then goes on to describe the Empire routes to India and Africa it was a logical activities of other airlines of which Pan American decision for Imperial Airways to operate flying boats ‘boats which was the most adventurous and, dare I say it, more from Brindisi to Alexandria before and after which flew’ innovative with their Sikorsky S-42, Martin M-130

44 AEROSPACE and ultimately the Boeing 314. Pan American The strength of this book lies in the chapters played in an entirely different garden to Imperial dealing with Imperial Airways, the Australasian Airways and, under Juan Trippe, the airline built scene and Aquila which follow a sound pattern. The up an excellent network along both coast lines of other airlines receive more of an historical narrative South America with the S-42 and the subsequent rather than any real detail, possibly because there is expansion across the Pacific Ocean during the latter less archive material easily available in this country 1930s was determined and extraordinary. I feel that and, while it is interesting, it would have been to the activities of Ralph O’Neill could have received a some benefit to know more. An index would have mention here. been useful, too. And, of course, other countries also In Argentina, Dodero, ALFA, Aerolineas produced flying boats of some quality. Argentinas and CAUSA of Uruguay all flew the That said, so long as a reader purchases this Sandringham regionally making great use of the book with that in mind, then it is a nice one to have Parana and Uruguay rivers but these operations did Above: Berths on Short S.23 on the shelf and it might lead the reader to seek not survive the early 1950s, largely because the Canopus. RAeS (NAL). more information. countries involved had sound (and cheaper) land plane infrastructure. Captain Dacre Watson FRAeS

INTRODUCTION TO AIR TRANSPORT ECONOMICS

explain topics like unbundling and ancillary revenues, From Theory to Applications – market skimming and penetration pricing, peak-load Third edition pricing, discriminating fares and so on. The important subject of forecasting is dealt with By B Vasigh et al in Chapter 10, which is one of the more practical chapters in the book, containing as it does some brief Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2 Park Square, explanations of various techniques which can be used Milton Park, Abingdon OX14 4RN, UK [20% in predicting traffic. This might perhaps seem a little discount available to RAeS members via www. ambitious, since many of the statistical techniques to crcpress.com using AKQ07 promotion code]. 2018. which reference is made really require more in-depth xxi; 498pp. £44.99. ISBN 978-1-138-23775-9. treatment to make them useful in practice. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) and the paradigm Now in its third edition, this textbook retains shift to which they have given rise are very neatly essentially the same structure it had in earlier described in Chapter 12. This covers the development editions. Chapter headings are almost all the same. of ‘ultra’ LCCs but says little or nothing about the So what is different about the new volume? Quite increasing emergence of LCCs on long-haul routes, a lot. First of all there is some extensive updating of although the chapter does start with a quote from the relevant facts and figures in order to reflect some CEO of Norwegian Air, one of the airlines attempting important changes that have taken place in the to develop long-haul low-cost services. industry in the five years since the Second edition A similar criticism might be made of Chapters 6 came out. The authors have gone to some trouble to and 7, which cover international economics and Open compile new tables and draw new diagrams so that Overall this Skies. There is a lack of any detailed discussion on recent trends and developments are well illustrated. the rather fierce debate taking place in the airline This is especially so in Chapter 1 on the advancement is a very industry on liberalisation versus mercantilism and in of the air transport industry, where good use of good book: particular on the dispute between the three largest secondary source data is made in order to measure interesting, airlines in the US (American, Delta and United) and things like market concentration by the Hirschman- the big three in the Persian Gulf (Emirates, Etihad Herfindahl Index. pleasant to and Qatar Airways). Resolving differences of this kind Another major revision is in the form of read and highly are not simply questions for the countries and airlines end-of-chapter discussion questions which have instructive. It is principally involved but has far-reaching implications been updated to reflect current issues. A valuable clearly a most for the development of the industry worldwide. innovation is the inclusion of a new appendix Overall this is a very good book: interesting, providing suggested answers to these questions. useful resource pleasant to read and highly instructive. It is clearly a The chapter on economic principles has been for students most useful resource for students following courses expanded to indicate more closely how they might following in air transport economics. It may also appeal to a influence decisions made by airline managers in courses in wider readership of people working in and around the real-life situations. This also applies to the chapter industry. There is much to be learnt from it. on pricing and revenue management in which some air transport interesting case studies and examples are used to economics Dr J P Hanlon

SEPTEMBER 2020 45 - Book Reviews HONEST VISION

The Donald Douglas Story By J Filucci

Aviation Supplies & Academics, Inc, 7005 132nd Place SE, Newcastle, WA 98059, USA. 2018. xi; 308pp. Illustrated. $19.95. ISBN 978-1-61954- 406-2.

Successful biographers need to immerse themselves in the essentiality of their chosen subjects, something Julie Filucci has clearly achieved with her wide-ranging study of Donald ‘Doug’ Douglas, founder of the Douglas Aircraft Company and icon of the early aviation industry. Her account begins with the path taken by Douglas from a relatively modest background, like so many early constructors on both sides of A Douglas DC-4 of KLM, workhorse, with more than 10,000 produced (Its the Atlantic. In 1912 after being one of the first PH-TAR, Rotterdam. The only contemporary rival for the title of the most DC-4/C-54 proved a popular aeronautical engineering students at the upstart and reliable aircraft, 1,245 famous transport aircraft of all time was the German Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he took on being built between May Junkers Ju52 which required servicing after every short-term posts with the Connecticut and Glenn 1942 and August 1947. 500 hours flight compared to the DC-3’s 1,500 Martin aircraft companies until, during WW1, he RAeS (NAL). hours). became chief civilian aeronautical engineer with For a biographer, recounting success is arguably the US Signal Corp’s aviation section. At its end not that difficult but when she describes a man he returned to Glenn Martin where he worked on who follows a remarkably set regime of life, we designing a twin-engined heavy bomber that he sense that some trouble is overdue. She tells us believed could be adapted for the potentially vast how he famously always ate breakfast of one egg, commercial market. one piece of white toast and one cup of black In her easy style Filucci tells us about Douglas’s coffee, how he left for his factory at 9, worked in his dream of “giving life to something that has a walnut-panelled office until 12 noon, when he had profound impact on the life of all mankind” that his habitual lunch before returning home at 5.30 could only be achieved through starting his own where dinner was always taken at 6.30 and always firm. He decided to base it in the favourable climate included a chocolate sundae, and how he passed of Southern California into which he sank his young every evening alone in his library while his wife wife’s and his own total savings of $26,000 and listened to the radio elsewhere with his relaxation where he would soon be joined by many of his coming with time spent every weekend on his yacht. previous most able work colleagues. After WW2 things did became far more From 1920 onwards the fledgling company complicated and Filucci recounts how Douglas would make startling progress by supplying aircraft suffered a series of setbacks. With flexibility not to the US military through which it earned such high Douglas’s strong suit, his unyielding standards profit margins that the Depression of 1929 did not of construction practice combined with marked affect it. The next leap forward came when, in 1932, financial conservatism led him to miss significant it obtained an option from Trans Continental and business opportunities while his unswerving filial Western Airline (the forerunner to TWA) to build loyalty to a son lacking his calibre, brought inevitable a total of 60 twin-engined commercial passenger crises. aeroplanes with advanced design features. These The picture becomes steadily adverse during had the designation DC-1 (Douglas Commercial Julie Filucci’s the 1950s and early 1960s as events moved One) with the DC-2 following and the process account reveals against Douglas when he rejected supersonic jet culminating in the famed DC-3 (Dakota) that how Douglas’s transport in favour of pushing into space. Despite came to symbolise the superiority of American producing weapons like the Honest John surface- aviation. Thoroughgoing scientific tests conducted genius as an to-surface missile, the Thor ICBM and the Skybolt by Douglas on the aircraft enabled it to achieve aeronautical ballistic missile, frenetic competition with the Soviets the required level of reliability and strength for a innovator brought unexpected and repeated cancellations. passenger aircraft designed to transport cargo contrasts with The problems of allocating resources between and passengers across remote areas. The peak aeroplanes and missiles also led the company to of success came when, during WW2, the Dakota his human be outmanoeuvred by rival constructor Boeing subsequently became the US military’s legendary frailties whose 707, 727 and 737 aircraft models overtook

46 AEROSPACE -

Douglas’s DC-8s and DC-9s in both sales and Right: Dr George Hislop (left), delivery times resulting in the company eventually RAeS President 1973-1974, presenting Donald Wills becoming bankrupt and being taken over by James Douglas Sr (1892-1981) McDonnell. with his RAeS Honorary Julie Filucci’s account reveals how Douglas’s Fellowship in February 1974. genius as an aeronautical innovator contrasts with RAeS (NAL). his human frailties – about which she is studiously non-judgemental – ranging from his mental rigidity, falling short in personal relationships and his long-time deception of his wife with his mistress Peggy Tucker. An absorbing read about one of America’s aviation giants during the course of which the reader gains insights into the immense opportunities and near unfettered competition within the US aviation industry which undoubtedly helped it assume its dominant position on the world stage.

Peter Reese AMRAeS

APOLLO IN PERSPECTIVE Spaceflight Then and Now – Second edition By J Allday

CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742, USA. 2019. Distributed by Taylor & Francis Group, 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon OX14 4RN, UK. xvi; 232pp. £29.99. [20% discount available to RAeS members via www. crcpress.com using AKQ07 promotion code]. ISBN 978-0-367-26333-1.

Apollo in Perspective occupies an enjoyable space somewhere between an academic textbook and a narrative history. The book provides a sound introduction to the basics of rocketry and orbit launch capability able to reach the Moon and dynamics in the context of the Apollo programme. beyond. It does much more than that though. The reader is This book is suitable for browsing as well given a well-paced, informative and anecdotally rich as cover-to-cover reading. It will be of interest tour of the systems that came together to make the to students of science and engineering, space Moon landings possible. enthusiasts and any with an interest in the history of The rationale for each of the missions is technology. If you’ve ever wondered how the lunar explained, along with key events, advances and rovers were stowed in the lander, how the on-board problems encountered. Important elements of the computer worked or if there ever was a place called complete Moon landing system are described – Cape Kennedy – then you will get good value from from flight computers to Moon suits – as well as Top: Apollo 15 Lunar Module pilot James B Irwin this book. The present 50-Year Anniversary Edition their origins in early programmes like Mercury and loads-up the Lunar Roving includes updates as of 2019, reflecting the current Gemini. Vehicle (LRV) with tools and status of the US Artemis ‘Return-to the-Moon’ Following on from the Apollo programme, the equipment in preparation for programme. book goes on to provide a tour through subsequent the first lunar extravehicular activity (EVA-1) at the Hadley- US space programmes, including the Space Shuttle Apennine landing site, 31 July Richard Lowe and the current efforts to re-establish a human 1971. NASA. MRAeS

SEPTEMBER 2020 47 NEW MEMBER SPOTLIGHT

Krystina Pearson-Rampeearee MRAeS, 32 Registration for further networking opportunities, Location: Liverpool, UK contributing to the engineering profession, encouraging young people to consider careers Job Title: Flight Systems Engineer, FCAS, in engineering and continuing my professional BAE Systems development. What inspired you into aerospace? I was What three items would you take with you to interested in engineering because I enjoyed the Space Station? Chocolate, my camera and a physics and maths at school, but I was inspired photo of my little boy. to go into aerospace by the jets that I saw at the What’s your favourite aircraft? Dartmouth Regatta Air Show. I still remember the BAE Systems Hawk. roar of the Harrier to this day! I immediately knew that I wanted to be a part of the industry and I Who is your biggest inspiration? My biggest chose to study a degree in Aerospace. inspiration is my parents. They came to the UK from Mauritius and worked extremely hard to build What is the best thing about your current the life that they wanted. My mum studied for her role? I am currently working in the Future Combat degree while caring for my brother and me and Air System team on the next generation of working part time. They showed me that hard work combat aircraft. The best thing about this is the pays off and their mentality has stuck with me. opportunity to contribute to the possibilities for the future of combat air. Piece of advice for someone looking to enter your field? There are many different routes in, What made you join the Royal Aeronautical find out what works best for you! Engineering is Society? I joined while studying my degree about creativity and collaboration. Don’t be afraid in Aerospace Systems Engineering to gain to ask questions, get involved, connect with those access to the resources and find out about the who have similar interests to yourself and make latest developments in aviation. I’ve used my the most of the opportunities that are available to membership to attend lectures, read material and you. Finally, my biggest piece of advice would be network with fellow members. to find a mentor! A mentor is vital for guidance and What do you hope to get out of your support in achieving your goals no matter what membership and CEng Registration? Going stage of your career and I am very thankful to mine forward, I hope to use my membership and CEng for guiding me through my CEng journey.

NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY

The National Aerospace Library is currently closed but our online services remain available so you can continue to browse the catalogue and download e-books and e-journals as well as contact our expert Librarians for advice and enquiries. E [email protected] NAL www.aerosociety.com/nal Catalogue www.aerosociety.com/catalogue Film Archive www.aerosociety.com/movies e-library www.aerosociety.com/elibrary

48 AEROSPACE SEPTEMBER 2020 49

Untitled-3 2 09/07/2020 14:32 NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY e-journals join the RAeS e-library Members from across the world can now read about the latest trends and developments in the world of aviation and aerospace by logging on to our new e-journals collection. This new service builds on our e-books collection, which is the perfect tool to brush-up your skills and boost your professional development.

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Just visit www.aerosociety.com/elibrary. You The NAL will be producing short videos to show

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SEPTEMBER 2020 51 RAeS CONFERENCE AND EVENTS Get set from anywhere in the world for RAeS virtual events take-off

The impact of Covid-19 has brought business challenges for all of us, not least in how we will continue to deliver the conferences and events that our members rely on for learning and development. We have been working hard to find solutions to keep our members up to date with sector developments and to ensure we continue to provide a space for connecting and networking with our global community. These unprecedented times have presented us with a steep learning- curve but we have adapted our approach in order to provide value to our members and the wider aerospace and aviation communities. Our series of short webinars and online lectures have proved extremely popular and attracted large audiences from across the world many of whom are new to the Society’s events. Compared to events held in our London headquarters, we have seen recent online webinars such as the Secrets of the Battle of Britain (600 views) and the Flight Operations Group high-quality learned output for our members; how Boeing 777 accident (2,500 views) and the Alan can we make the virtual experience engaging and Bristow Lecture on Lynx operations in Antarctica worthwhile; how do we replicate the live experience (900 views) attract record numbers of viewers. of networking and engaging with sponsors; and how These figures represent audience numbers that can we continue to add the value that our members would simply not have physically fitted into a lecture would rightly expect? theatre. Once released to our YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/aerosociety), these figures A custom-designed platform continue to rise as more people, search for topics of interest, then discover the Society and its learned SO, AFTER MUCH So, after much research, we have come-up with an output. RESEARCH, WE exciting and creative solution designed specifically These webinar attendees would most likely for the Society which will transform the learning never have come to a live event in London, so we HAVE COME- experience for our members and our broader are delighted that we have been able to connect UP WITH AN community. Our platform is not a typical ‘off the with them and share our body of knowledge in EXCITING AND shelf’ offering with a bit of branding to make sure this way. Of course, we are equally pleased to it looks like ours: rather, it is a custom-designed have provided a way for existing members from CREATIVE platform for the Royal Aeronautical Society which our global network of Branches and Divisions to SOLUTION will have all the functionality of a live event (apart tune into content from the HQ. However, we know DESIGNED from the food and drink unfortunately!) that will webinars are not enough and we are now ready to SPECIFICALLY enable participants to have an engaging and move to the next stage in our fast track to digital interactive experience. transformation. FOR THE We recognise that the value of conferences, We are therefore excited to announce the RAeS SOCIETY especially for a multidisciplinary professional new virtual events platform that is launching in WHICH WILL organisation like ours, lies not only in the quality September 2020. This new virtual experience that TRANSFORM and diversity of the top-level speakers and their we are developing has been the result of extensive content but also in the networking opportunities research conducted at pace. New providers have THE LEARNING that industry and academic events can provide. This quickly recognised the need for high quality, virtual EXPERIENCE interaction greatly assists personal development and events. We have assessed a wide range of potential FOR OUR helps to forge relationships that advance ‘the art, partners and looked in detail at their capabilities to MEMBERS AND science and engineering’ of aeronautics. The ability see what might be achieved through technology to to pose questions and have them answered is also meet the needs of our members. Key questions to OUR BROADER extremely important and can be missing in some be answered were: how can we deliver the same COMMUNITY formats of online webinars.

52 AEROSPACE With this, we think we have the answer, which has so far been lacking in the majority of online webinars and events in bringing networking and interactivity to the virtual meeting space.

How will it work?

Put simply, once registered, delegates will be able to access the platform from their laptop, computer or mobile device via a private link that will be emailed to them. From there, delegates can upload their profile to start searching and networking with other delegates through live text or video chat. The conference/event sessions will be broadcast through the platform and there will be also be live Q&A sessions with the speakers. There will be the opportunity to visit sponsor and exhibitor lounges and access the content that they provide, have one-to-one video chats and make those all-important connections. This will create new opportunities for Corporate Partners to advertise, sponsor or reach key decision-makers or recruit young people. is to provide support for all our members across all There will be interactivity along the way through our sectors, so we have taken into consideration digital polls, voting and gamification that delegates affordability and accessibility for everyone. By can choose whether or not to get involved in – investing in this virtual platform, there are no travel creating a ‘buzz’ around online events and feeding or accommodation costs involved, so we hope back into discussion points and Q&As. you will join us for this exciting new chapter in the Delegates will have access to the conference virtual environment. As we continue to develop the content post-event as well, adding value to the platform, we would like your feedback. This platform overall experience. There will be chat functions so has been designed for our members, so come and that the conversations can continue after the event, join us and let us know what you think. A list of increasing the relevance of the event and helping events for our Autumn 2020 programme can be participants to continue to engage with our broad found on p 55 or visit our website https://www. community. This will assist in generating further aerosociety.com/events-calendar/ for more learned content, output and follow-on events as well information. as potentially attracting new members. ● Join us from wherever you are to experience high Summary quality, informative content delivered by expert speakers This does not mean, however, that the Society will ● Interact with our speakers and ask questions live be transferring all its events to the digital realm. ● Connect and network with other event Instead we see this virtual conference platform, participants from across the world driven by the necessity of Covid-19, as evolving ● Meet our sponsors at our virtual exhibitor booths side-by-side with our existing worldwide network ● Interact and engage through polls, voting and of over 450 lectures, workshops and conferences gamification that will gradually return, as face-to-face restrictions ● Continue conversations with industry colleagues are lifted. We will also have the capability to offer and access the content post event. hybrid events which brings the best of both worlds. In the longer term, as we develop the virtual For now, this crisis has accelerated a shift to virtual platform, we want to create a community where offerings to increase the Society’s global reach and we can all share information, contribute ideas and connect with existing members and new audiences. generate continued high-quality content. We want We look forward to welcoming you to the next it to be a space to provide information on RAeS generation of RAeS virtual conferences! member benefits, careers, volunteering opportunities and all that the RAeS has to offer. Keeley Scott In these challenging economic times, our aim RAeS Head of Events

SEPTEMBER 2020 53 NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY Evolution of Naval Aviation in Japan

A new exhibition on the evolution of naval aviation in Japan has recently opened at the Kure City Naval History & Science Museum (Battleship Yamato Museum) at Kure, a major shipbuilding port northeast of Hiroshima. A focal point of the exhibition is the 1921 British Aviation Mission to the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) headed by Colonel The Master of Sempill (1893-1965) – later Lord Sempill – who compiled a detailed illustrated account of the British Aviation Mission published in the Journal of the Royal Aeronautical Society, September 1924, pp 553-584. Sempill was Chairman of the Royal Aeronautical Society from 1927-1930 and included in the extensive photographic archives of the National Aerospace Library are two wooden boxes containing Sempill’s photographic record of the Mission, a typescript index to the 227 3¼ inch glass lantern slides being found among the Sempill’s papers held at the Library in Farnborough. In 2019 in response to an enquiry received from Yoshi Miki – Curatorial Consultant & Visiting Professor, National Museum of Japanese History Above: Colonel The Master – all the historic images from the original glass of Sempill supervising the lantern slides were digitally scanned on behalf of training of Imperial Japanese the Library by volunteer Nick Isaacs FRAeS and Naval Air Service personnel, 1921. The Short-built Porte/ can now be viewed via www.aerosociety.com/ Felixstowe F5 had been printsandposters by entering the search Sempill. sent to Japan as part of the The Library also holds the photographic archive British Aviation Mission led of one of the training pilots of the Mission – Air by the Colonel The Master of Commodore Herbert George Brackley CBE DSO Sempill. RAeS (NAL). Right and below: Views of DSC AFRAeS (1894-1948) – and the Battleship the exhibition at the Kure Yamato Museum exhibition includes a number of City Naval History & Science images from the Library’s archives. Museum (Battleship Yamato One of the key companies involved in the Museum). Sempill Mission and the subsequent development of naval aviation in Japan was Short Brothers (Rochester and Bedford) Limited which sold several Felixstowe F5 flying boats to the Imperial Japanese Navy in the early 1920s, the aircraft being first flight-tested at Rochester before they were put into crates as components for assembly at the Shorts factory at Taura, a suburb of Yokosuka. A detailed summary of the history of the company’s business transactions with the IJN was prepared by the Shorts historian Gordon Bruce in support of the exhibition. For any enquiries regarding this material please contact the National Aerospace Library (E [email protected]).

54 AEROSPACE RAeS 2020 Virtual Conference Programme

Join us from wherever you are in the world to experience high quality, informative content. Book early for our special introductory offer rates.

SPACE WEAPON SYSTEMS & TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS AVIATION Safeguarding Earth's Extreme Threats to The Annual Business Space Environment the UK Aviation Seminar

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UAS / ROTORCRAFT / AIR TRANSPORT AIR POWER STRUCTURES & MATERIALS Urban Air Mobility The Route to Air 7th Aircraft Structural Conference 2020 Power 2040 Design Conference

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Connect and interact with our speakers and ask questions live Engage and network with other professionals from across the world Meet our sponsors at our virtual exhibitor booths Access content post-event to continue your professional development For the full virtual conference programme and further details on what to expect visit aerosociety.com/VCP Elections

FELLOWS Andrew Foxhall Peter Williams Andrew Patterson Phillip Wood WITH REGRET Alex Horner Anna McGrady Pierre Guindi Alexander Bacon Bhavya Vallabh Pui Ling (Crystal) Tse The RAeS announces with regret the deaths of the Allan McGreal Callum McGee Radu Cioponea following members: Anastasios Plioutsias Chris VanderWalt Richard Gatenby Thomas Charles Maurice Cowley Andrew Middleton Christopher Maloney Roberto Chiurchi Andrew Woodward Chunjin Wang Ross Field CEng MRAeS 92 Andy Roberts Colin Sparke Saikrishna Kishore Nigel Lawrence Freeman IEng AMRAeS 62 Conor Nolan David Guerin Katabathuni Dr Ronald Albert Pearson FRAeS 76 Dan Townsend Diana Woodruffe Salvatore Carta David Hargreaves Dimitrios Chionis Shailesh Kunnath John Whitfield RickardAMRAeS 93 Gary Corderley Dominic Jameson Sekharan Colin Stephenson IEng AMRAeS 71 Ian Norman Gareth Remington Simon Ferguson Richard Martin Tanner MBE MRAeS 72 Ian Taylor George Hunter Simon Hedderman Ian Tolfts Giampaolo Pagliuca Simon Redican Kenneth Francis Nicholas Weekes AMRAeS 90 James Sykes Gregory McKay Simon Williams Joao Marques Mira Hannah McCann Sohaib Jaffar John Cook Hao Li Sophie Emerson ASSOCIATES Rohan Sant Kevin Walsh Hayley Saunders Stephen George Sacha Ghebali Linton Foat Ian Taggart Stephen Westmacott Alan Kosinski Sanjay Patel Luisella Giulicchi Jacob Bullard Stuart Cocks Ben Massey Viral Patel Martyn Ashford James Dean Stuart Davis Bruce Hawkins Muhammad Hayat Jasmine Thiyagarajan Suthan Sothilingam Davide Grignoli AFFILIATES Nigel Rogers Jimmy Ahmed Thomas Senior Dewi Madden Paul Thomson John Blake Tianyi Han Emmanuelle Anguissa Abigail Clements Peter Dubock Kouame Yao Tomohiro Matsuda Matt Trower Ali Suren Philip Peters Lara Davies Weijun Huang Andrew Campbell Sharon Nicholson Liam Bosley E-ASSOCIATES Ashniel Singh Simon Prince Luke Killick-Calver ASSOCIATE Chris Wallis Stephen Lushington Manoj Mathew MEMBERS Adam Winter Jeff Ng Thamar Smit Marc Stickley Alessandro Casalone Mark Lynott Thilak Gunatunga Mark Leah Christian Teixeira Alex Gitin Mark Wraight Timothy Burns Meng Bai George Wike Daniel Gortat Martha Mlalazi Vasilis Katsapis Michael Talbot Jason Steggall Emily Gissing Stephen Browne Vijayakumar Sahadevan Nadiir Bheekhun Jeet Parmar Jordan Shepherd Yu Liu Naveed Asghar Jonathan Wilson Manraj Dhanda STUDENT AFFILIATES Naveen Joseph Mathew Luc De Leacy Max Fell MEMBERS Craig Naylor Luke Horner Noel Glaenzer Anthony Carbone Nordine Taoudi Stefan West Philip Morris Chun Yuen Cheung Aaron Andrews Oliver Desforges Steve George Punsara Banneheka James Baglow Adrian Adams Pantelis Tzinikos William Germany Navaratna Samuel Anih Alexander Taylor Paul Fox Richard Beattie

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56 AEROSPACE Obituary CARL GRAHAM

1949-2019 management and business development roles for GEC Marconi, BAE Systems and Selex Galileo, initially focussing on growth of the export of Carl, a major contributor to the Solent Branch naval systems and ultimately as International for over 12 years, had a quiet manner that belied Business Development Manager, expanding immense capabilities, wisdom and generosity that airborne and maritime EW opportunities, including benefited both the Solent Branch and those of us supporting Eurofighter GmbH and Eurofighter fortunate to know and/or work with him. export campaigns and partner companies. Never Typical of Carl was his willingness when first one to retire, Carl continued thereafter to run two approached to present a lecture to the Branch and companies, benefitting others with his advice and to join the Committee and then to take on the roles experience. of industrial liaison, raising of sponsorship for the R Carl was known for being both hardworking and J Mitchell Lecture and Treasurer. a pleasure to work with, while also generous with his Having joined the Navy as a Junior Radio time and support of others. He supported the Mary Operator at HMS Ganges at the age of 15, Rose Trust as a volunteer, he lectured to the Society Lieutenant Commander Graham retired 26 years on Eurofighter systems and to many local aviation later. During that time Carl was commissioned, societies on his research into local aviation history. served as a communications officer on SS Canberra That included the research he undertook of the 23 during the Falklands War, served on every type June 1944 crash of Boeing B-17 Flying Fortress of surface ship and submarine, commanded five Paper Dollie when asked about it by the grandson of warships and RNCC Whalebone Cove, Port Stanley, one of the crew. and graduated from Royal Naval Engineering The plaque Carl donated detailing the history of College with an MSc in Systems Engineering and the flight and the crew remains in the Hampshire from the NATO Advanced Joint Electronic Warfare Bowman pub as a small local tribute to an extremely Staff Course. talented and generous member of the Solent Carl then continued to serve as a Royal Navy Branch committee and someone I am very pleased Reserve specialist Minesweeper CO until the to have known and to remember. disbandment of the RNR Minesweeper Squadron. At the same time, he launched a career in Tim Coffey industry, taking on project management, marketing FRAeS Journal of Aeronautical History

The first four Journal of Aeronautical History papers of 2020 have been added to the Society’s website and are FREE to view or download: https://www.aerosociety.com/news-expertise/journals-papers/papers-of-the-journal-of-aeronautical-history/ Reginald Brie – Pioneer of Autogyros and Helicopters Compiled by David Gibbings MBE FRAeS Farnborough and the Beginnings of Gas Turbine Propulsion By Frank W Armstrong FRAeS The Royal Aircraft Establishment Farnborough: 100 years of Innovative Research, Development and Application By Dr Graham Rood Alcock & Brown’s Competitors By Peter Elliott SEPTEMBER 2020 57 The Last Word Commentary from Professor Keith Hayward FRAeS

A Poundland GPS?

his is not to knock Poundland, or its resilent system based on an alternative technology business model; I too like value for money, to counter a potential adversary threatening GPS but can the UK construct a viable and integrity. effective global positioning system on the back of the OneWeb low-earth-orbit What are the technical issues to T(LEO) constellation? It puts the UK Government address? into the world of NewSpace and its buccaneering entrepreneurs. Leaving aside the overarching Existing positioning systems operate at a higher justification for a Brexit reinvention of the space wheel orbital plane than OneWeb. Airbus (a partner in (twice, with GPS and Galileo), is this a good idea? building the OneWeb satellites together with US companies) says that a LEO navigational system will Will it be cheaper than a custom built work with some 80 specialist platforms ‘seeded’ in system? the complete constellation of 600+. OneWeb has an existing spectrum advantage – brought by UK Ofcom The initial price of bailing out OneWeb from US registration – over its main competitor, SpaceX’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy will cost the UK Government Starlink, but Mr Musk has deep pockets and will not £400m in collaboration with Bharti Global of India. give up easily. The UK Government will also have ‘a golden share’, providing strategic control over future ownership. Will it achieve the accuracy of either This is very much cheaper than a UK sovereign GPS or Galileo? alternative to Galileo, which had a price tag of over £5bn. Specialist hosted navigation payloads and Here I will admit to a lack of knowledge. But it seems on-board encryption will have to be developed, but, to be a speculative approach to the positioning given the UK’s existing capability in the small satellite satellite business. Expert opinion seems divided sector and experience with some aspects of Galileo on whether a LEO-based positioning constellation technologies, this might be manageable within a can deliver centimetric accuracy – not needed for modest budget. Future costs of maintaining and most civil locational applications, but essential for sustaining the satellite constellation are not known. some commercial and certainly more military uses. The advent of cheaper launchers will reduce some of This in the end will be the key question for OneWeb these but will LEO imply a faster rate of replacement positioning; if it does not achieve Galileo precision, the as satellites decay and need more ‘driving’ to maintain UK will end up with a speculative commercial venture position and integrity of the navigation signals? and not a strategic asset. IF IT DOES NOT ACHIEVE Other income? A ‘garden bridge’ in space? GALILEO Besides offering a vehicle for specialist positioning Prime Minister Boris Johnson has an eye for unusual PRECISION, satellites, OneWeb would also offer low-cost projects and it has the support of Mr Disruption, THE UK WILL broadband connectivity, especially to ‘hard to reach’ the No 10 advisor Dominic Cummings. If the other areas. This would be of interest to a government OneWeb services were guaranteed money-spinners, END UP WITH A wanting to ‘level up’ regional economies. A viable under normal economic conditions, a modest punt on SPECULATIVE OneWeb might also generate revenues from other a LEO constellation with security benefits might be COMMERCIAL customers for novel service applications. Developing worth the investment, if only to support a world-class VENTURE miniaturised positioning satellites might also increase British space industry. But we are not in a normal Britain’s burgeoning space industry, as well as world. The post-Covid economic recovery will be long AND NOT A encouraging other applications. OneWeb might also and hard and there might be better ways of supporting STRATEGIC attract other partners wanting positioning services; the the UK space sector than keeping a mainly American- ASSET. Americans are said to be interested in it as a backup based company in business.

58 AEROSPACE NEW FOR MEMBERS IN 2020

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