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Continuity / Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement

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Continuity / Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement CONTINUITY / CHANGE: RETHINKING OPTIONS FOR TRIDENT REPLACEMENT DR. NICK RITCHIE Dr. Nick Ritchie Department of Peace Studies BRADFORD DISARMAMENT RESEARCH CENTRE University of Bradford April 2009 DEPARTMENT OF PEACE STUDIES : UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD : JUNE 2010 About this report This report is part of a series of publications under the Bradford Disarmament Research Centre’s programme on Nuclear-Armed Britain: A Critical Examination of Trident Modernisation, Implications and Accountability. To find out more please visit www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/trident.html. Briefing 1: Trident: The Deal Isn’t Done – Serious Questions Remain Unanswered, at www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/briefing1.html Briefing 2: Trident: What is it For? – Challenging the Relevance of British Nuclear Weapons, at www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/briefing2.html. Briefing 3: Trident and British Identity: Letting go of British Nuclear Weapons, at www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/briefing3.html. Briefing 4: A Regime on the Edge? How Replacing Trident Undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, at www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/briefing4.html. Briefing 5: Stepping Down the Nuclear Ladder: Options for Trident on a Path to Zero, at www.brad.ac.uk/acad/bdrc/nuclear/trident/briefing5.html. About the author Dr. Nick Ritchie is a Research Fellow at the Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford. He is lead researcher on the Nuclear-Armed Britain programme. He previously worked for six years as a researcher at the Oxford Research Group on global security issues, in particular nuclear proliferation, arms control and disarmament. His PhD thesis examined the evolution of US nuclear weapons policy from 1990-2004. Recent publications include “Relinquishing Nuclear Weapons: Identities, Networks and the British Bomb”, International Affairs, 86: 2, March 2010, and “Deterrence Dogma? Challenging the Relevance of British Nuclear Weapons”, International Affairs, 85:1, January 2009. Acknowledgments The programme has been generously funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust and the Nuclear Education Trust. The author would like to thanks Paul Rogers, Malcolm Dando and Simon Whitby for their support and others who have reviewed this text and provided detailed and valuable comments. The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Peace Studies or the University of Bradford. Copyright ©University of Bradford 2010 Printed and bound in the United Kingdom by Inprint + Design Ltd., University of Bradford, Bradford, West Yorkshire. Cover photo: HMS Vanguard in refit at HMNB Devonport Continuity/Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement Table of contents Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Part 1: Context ........................................................................................................... 6 The Trident system .......................................................................................................................... 6 The ‘Successor’ programme ........................................................................................................... 10 The international context ................................................................................................................ 17 Financial pressure ............................................................................................................................. 21 Part 2: Options .......................................................................................................... 36 Trident Lite ....................................................................................................................................... 38 Ending ‘continuous-at-sea deterrence’ ......................................................................................... 42 Reduced Readiness .......................................................................................................................... 49 Dual-capable submarines ................................................................................................................ 58 Precedents from US nuclear weapons policy .............................................................................. 71 A cruise missile option .................................................................................................................... 78 Costs and flexibility ......................................................................................................................... 87 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 93 Appendix I: Timeline for US and UK Trident submarine replacement programmes .......... 95 Appendix II: Timeline for UK warheads and Trident missiles ................................................ 96 1 Bradford Disarmament Research Centre List of Tables and Figures List of tables Table 1: Breakdown of original Trident procurement cost by category ........................... 23 Table 2: Breakdown of original Trident procurement cost by category in 2008-09 prices ........................................................................................................ 23 Table 3: Comparison of original Trident programme costs and 2006 estimate for Trident replacement ............................................................................ 24 Table 4: Trident replacement capital cost estimates based on 2006 White Paper .......... 29 Table 5: Trident replacement capital cost estimates based on inter-generational unit cost inflation ....................................................................................................... 30 Table 6: Trident replacement operational cost estimates over 25 years ........................... 30 Table 7: Illustrative total Trident replacement capital and operational cost estimates over 25 years ..................................................................................... 30 Table 8: UK Trident II (D5) missile stockpile and test firings .......................................... 40 Table 9: Trident system configuration options ..................................................................... 56 Table 10: Illustrative costed totals for three options ............................................................. 89 Table 11: Nuclear-armed TLAMs on planned Astute fleet ................................................... 89 Table 12: Nuclear-armed TLAMs on four new ‘Block II’ Astute fleet ................................ 90 Table 13: Illustrative upper and lower estimates of a three boat hybrid SSN/SSGN submarine fleet .................................................................................... 92 List of figures Figure 1: The effects of using Trident ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: The CADMID cycle .................................................................................................. 11 Figure 3: Deployment cycle of US SSBN ............................................................................... 51 Figure 4: SSGN configured for land attack ............................................................................ 60 Figure 5: SSGN configured for SOF ....................................................................................... 61 Figure 6: SSGN Universal Launch and Recovery Module .................................................. 62 Figure 7: Deployment cycle of US SSGN .............................................................................. 63 Figure 8: Virginia Payload Tube redesign and Flexible Payload Module ........................... 64 Figure 9: US Ohio-class SSBN showing missile compartment ........................................... 67 Figure 11: Numbers and readiness of NATO Dual Capable Aircraft .................................. 76 Figure 12: TLAM Block II and III range ................................................................................. 80 2 Continuity/Change: Rethinking Options for Trident Replacement Acronyms ALCM Air-Launched Cruise Missile ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare AWE Atomic Weapons Establishment CADMID Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In-Service Disposal CASD Continuous-at-sea Deterrence CMC Common Missile Compartment DASO Demonstration and Shake-down Operation DCA Dual Capable Aircraft ECM Enhanced Cruise Missile FPM Flexible Payload Module HMNB Her Majesty’s Naval Base JASSM Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile MAC Multiple all-up-round Canister MDA Mutual Defence Agreement MIRV Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle NPR Nuclear Posture Review NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty PNI Presidential Nuclear Initiative RATTLRS Revolutionary Approach to Time Critical Long Range Strike RNAD Royal Naval Armaments Depot RRW Reliable Replacement Warhead SDR Strategic Defence Review SLBM Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile SLCM Submarine/Sea-Launched Cruise Missile SOF Special Operations Forces SSBN Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (Nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine) SSGN Ship Submersible Guided Nuclear (Nuclear powered guided missile submarine) SSN Ship Submersible Nuclear (Nuclear powered attack submarine) SWS Strategic Weapon System TASM Tactical Air-to-Surface Missile TLAM Tomahawk Land Attack Missile TWS
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