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Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10

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Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Vontobel Morning Note MARKET OVERVIEW 02-06-10 Closing +/-% +++ Tecan - Growth initiatives on track - upgrade to Buy SMI 6368.8 +0.8 +++ Dow Jones 10249.5 +2.2 NASDAQ 2281.1 +2.6 Stoxx 50 2389.6 -0.1 Overview 'Vontobel Morning Note' Hang Seng 19471.8 -0.1 Nikkei 9603.2 -1.1 • Equity Research SMI Companies − PRE-MARKET INDEX 03-06-10 Novartis: Pivotal phase III study of Afinitor in treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors met Current +/-% its primary endpoint SMI (LEU) 6451.67 +1.31 − Roche: Positive phase III results with CellCept in Lupus Nephritis; enrollment into phase III study with Avastin in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma stopped MSCI EU SECTOR OVERVIEW Non-SMI Companies PRICE INDEX (LOC.) 02-06-10 − Closing +/-% Tecan: Growth initiatives on track - upgrade to Buy Pharmaceuticals 88.0 +1.4 − Cosmo: Begin of enrollment into phase III trial of Rifamycin SV MMX in Traveler's Diarrhea Chemicals 176.9 -0.2 − EG Laufenburg: Had it not been for good trading results - PT CHF 800 (880), HOLD Health Care Eq. 203.9 +0.5 − Galenica: CellCept reaches positive results in Phase III trial in Lupus Nephritis Biotechnology 80.3 +0.4 − Implenia: A new lawsuit on the horizon Food & Beverage 136.3 +1.4 − Kuoni: Cash offer for the majority of Et-china T, A & Luxury Goods 247.5 +1.4 − Insurance 39.3 -0.5 LEM: 4Q order intake exceeds pre-crisis levels - good 4Q results slightly ahead of estimates, HOLD Information Tech. 45.3 0.0 PT 370 (340) Techn., HW & Equip. 39.8 -0.7 − OC Oerlikon: Rights offering successfully concluded − Sulzer: Expanding the service business - new PT 140 (old: 135) CURRENCIES 03:19 Ex rate +/-Rp • Preview USD/CHF 1.1548 -0.18 EUR/CHF 1.4144 -0.22 • Upcoming Corporate Events INT. RATES (CHF) Closing +/-bp 3-mth money mkt 10-y SWAP 1.94 % -3 © 2010. The objectivity of this report may be compromised by existing or planned business relationships between the author and the analysed companies and potential conflicts of interest arising thereof. Investors should therefore on no account use this report as the sole basis on which to make a decision. Please see the end of the document for more details on potential conflicts of interest and disclaimer information. Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Equity Research Novartis Pivotal phase III study of Afinitor in treatment of pancreatic Reuters: NOVN.VX Price: CHF 52.9 neuroendocrine tumors met its primary endpoint Hold PT: CHF 59.0 (CHF) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E FACTS: EPS 3.76 4.01 4.67 4.77 A pivotal phase III trial investigating Afinitor (everolimus) plus best supportive JCF Cons. EPS 3.76 4.01 5.49 5.79 P / E 14.0 13.2 11.3 11.1 care in the treatment of advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NET) met EV / EBITDA 8.3 7.1 7.0 5.7 its primary endpoint of showing an extension of progression free survival (PFS). P / B 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.6 Div. Yield (%) 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 COMMENT: Silvia Schanz +41 (0)58 283 63 44 The phase III study RADIANT-3 (n=410) indicates that administration of Afinitor [email protected] in combination with best supportive care significantly extended PFS, or time without tumor growth in patients with advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Full study details will be presented at the conference of the European Society of Medical Oncology, to be held in Milan, Italy, October 2010. Afinitor is already approved for treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in the US and EU. The recent data could form the basis for approval of the drug in pancreatic NET. CONCLUSION: The phase III data of Afinitor in pancreatic NET is good news for Novartis and comes as expected. We carry peak sales of CHF 550 mn for RCC and CHF 300 for NET. We maintain our HOLD rating and the PT of CHF 59. 2 Vontobel Research Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Roche Positive phase III results with CellCept in Lupus Nephritis; enrollment Reuters: ROG.VX Price: CHF 163 into phase III study with Avastin in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma stopped Buy PT: CHF 210 (CHF) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E FACTS: EPS 10.4 9.03 11.8 14.4 Roche and Galenica reached positive results with CellCept in the treatment of JCF Cons. EPS 10.4 9.03 13.4 14.8 P / E 15.7 18.0 13.9 11.3 Lupus Nephritis (LN). The study had successfully reached its primary endpoint. EV / EBITDA 9.1 10.2 8.5 7.3 Following the recommendation of an independent Data and Safety Monitoring P / B 3.2 19.1 12.0 7.6 Board (DSMB), Roche has stopped enrollment into a phase III study Div. Yield (%) 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.2 investigating Avasting in treating diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma. Silvia Schanz +41 (0)58 283 63 44 [email protected] COMMENT: - CellCept in lupus: The phase III study demonstrated superiority of CellCept (mycophenolate mofetil) versus azathiprine (AZA) in delaying treatment failure in patients with lupus nephritis. Details will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting, June 24-27, 2010. Data might be used to seek regulatory approval in the US, Europe and other major market. CellCept is already approved for prevention of transplant rejection, where the patent has expired in the US. - Avastin in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: Enrollment into the phase III MAIN trial was stopped based on a recent safety and efficacy analysis for the first 720 patients, indicating an unfavorable risk-benefit assessment of the addition of Avastin to standard of care treatment Rituxan/MabThera plus CHOP chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Positive phase III results for CellCept are good news for Roche. If successful, CellCept could be the first new drug to be approved for lupus in fifty years. Stop of enrollment of Avastin in treatment of large B-cell-lymphoma will not impact our CHF 9 bn peak sales estimates for Avastin. We confirm our BUY rating and PT of CHF 210. 3 Vontobel Research Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Tecan Growth initiatives on track - upgrade to Buy Reuters: TECN.S Price: CHF 66.5 Buy PT: CHF 90.0 FACTS: (CHF) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E A number of promising growth initiatives have the potential to boost sales EPS 2.48 4.74 4.63 5.48 growth rates up to the mid-teen level beyond 2011. While spending on these JCF Cons. EPS 2.48 4.74 4.79 5.46 P / E 26.8 14.0 14.4 12.1 initiatives will impact profitability in 2010-11, we believe that Tecan's core EV / EBITDA 9.3 9.4 8.7 7.0 business is developing positively enough to compensate for this extra spending. P / B 4.3 3.4 2.9 2.4 Accelerated sales growth could lift EBIT margins by up to 400 bp. Our 2010-13 Div. Yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 estimates revisions result in EPS changes of 2%, 10%, 11% and 18%. The Christoph Gubler +41 (0)58 283 63 43 share price has dropped 20% from its April peak. We lift our PT to CHF 90 [email protected] (from CHF 80) per share and upgrade the stock to Buy (from Hold). COMMENT: Growth initiatives to push sales growth: We believe Tecan has the potential to push sales growth rates to up to the mid-teens level through growth initiatives like 1) the development of innovative workflow solutions, 2) the establishment of new OEM contracts, 3) an increase of the share of its consumables and service business, and 4) an expansion of the global footprint into emerging markets. Volume growth and efficiency gains set to boost profitability: We expect Tecan's EBIT margin to improve by up to 400 bp (excluding new investments) over the coming years with 200 bp to come from volume growth, 50 bp from mix effects, 50 bp from the termination of project Inspire, 80 bp from the termination of project Ginseng, and 40 bp from the solution for Sample Management. CONCLUSION: Valuation leaves 40% upside potential: Tecan is trading at 2011E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 12x and 7x, 10%-15% below Swiss and international peers and 20% below the shares' April high. Our DCF analysis yields a fair value of CHF 110 per share. Based on our 2009-13E EPS CAGR estimate of 14%, we apply a 2011E P/E target multiple of 16x, increase our PT to CHF 90 (from CHF 80) per share and upgrade the stock to Buy (Hold). 4 Vontobel Research Vontobel Morning Note 03-06-10 Cosmo Begin of enrollment into phase III trial of Rifamycin SV MMX in Reuters: COPN.S Price: CHF 19.2 Traveler's Diarrhea Hold PT: CHF 20.0 (CHF) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E FACTS: EPS 1.08 0.45 0.63 1.90 Cosmo's US partner Santarus announced the begin of enrollment into the first JCF Cons. EPS 1.08 0.45 P / E 17.7 42.1 30.4 10.1 phase III study, evaluating safety and efficacy of Rifamycin SV MMX in the EV / EBITDA 13.1 28.0 20.5 7.0 treatment of Traveler's Diarrhea. P / B 3.4 2.7 3.2 1.9 Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 COMMENT: Silvia Schanz +41 (0)58 283 63 44 Rifamycin SV MMX is being developed for Traveler's Diarrhea (TD) and [email protected] potentially other indications with an infectious component in the colon.
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