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Ntqlrethih1it6katsuy79yjfy6.Pdf Global Research 16 March 2021 Aryzta AG Equities Improved business model set up - upgrade to Buy Switzerland Food Products 12-month rating Buy * Upgrade to Buy after key corporate actions Prior: Neutral Aryzta has gone through challenging times but we believe new management actions 12m price target CHF1.50 unlock value prospects. We upgrade the stock to Buy from Neutral and raise our price Prior: CHF0.65 target to CHF1.5. In our view, the announced divestment of the underperforming Price (15 Mar 2021) CHF1.04 region North America with related proceeds (c€700m – transaction multiple c10.5x FY 20) used to de-lever the balance sheet is a game changer. Aryzta can now focus on the RIC: ARYN.S BBG: ARYN SW key value driver Europe. The improving balance sheet allows growth investments. With Trading data and key metrics c60% exposure to street traffic, we also think Aryzta should benefit from easing 52-wk range CHF1.04-0.29 COVID-19 mobility restrictions. We expect a strong net profit recovery to €81m by FY Market cap. CHF1.03bn/US$1.10bn 23E (FY 21E -€61m). The stock has EFCF run rate prospects of €70-100m medium term Shares o/s 990m (REG ) resulting in an attractive yield to market cap of 7-10% (Swiss mid cap food companies Free float 100% trade at 2-4%). Avg. daily volume ('000) 6,794 Restructuring on track and attractive exposure to consumer street traffic Avg. daily value (m) CHF5.4 To optimise the business model set up in Europe, Aryzta is de-layering management, Common s/h equity (07/21E) €0.19bn resulting in cost savings of c€20-30m (UBSe), but at the same time it is strengthening P/BV (07/21E) 4.9x local responsibility and client relations. We forecast the company to improve EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA (07/21E) 4.9x margins to 13-15% in line with some other food companies (including c150bp margin EPS (UBS, diluted) (€) accretion from NA divestment). Rising volumes supported by easing consumer mobility From To % ch Cons. restrictions on COVID-19, room for increasing market share (improved execution driven 07/21E (0.02) (0.06) NM (0.07) by new management) and optimising the capacity should support profitability. 07/22E 0.07 0.04 -46 (.00) 07/23E 0.10 0.08 -16 0.04 Financial de-leverage & sound cash flow prospects medium term The announced NA disposal will result in net c€670m deleverage prospects, bringing Joern Iffert, CFA net debt/EBITDA (including the hybrids) down to 4.9x in FY 22E (7.3x in FY 20) or 1x Analyst [email protected] excluding the hybrids. This gives Aryzta room to finance some growth capex being a +41-44-23 91639 positive. Medium term, we expect the company to enjoy EFCF run rate prospects of €70-100m, allowing further de-leverage prospects and dividend payments. Valuation: New DCF-based PT of CHF1.5 (previously CHF0.65) We raise our price target to CHF1.5: (1) The NA divestment proceeds are higher than the discounted NA cash flows we had in our model. (2) We increase our MT/LT sales assumptions by 100/50bp to 2%/1.5% and our MT/LT EBITDA margin assumptions by 300bp given rising exposure to above-average profitable and growing Europe. Highlights (€m) 07/18 07/19 07/20 07/21E 07/22E 07/23E 07/24E 07/25E Revenues 3,435 3,383 2,931 2,755 1,807 1,862 1,918 1,976 EBIT (UBS) 165 170 75 56 121 145 166 176 Net earnings (UBS) 49 74 (18) (61) 35 81 99 106 EPS (UBS, diluted) (€) 0.12 0.07 (0.02) (0.06) 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.11 DPS (€) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net (debt) / cash (2,270) (1,599) (1,896) (1,177) (1,114) (1,201) (1,124) (1,043) Profitability/valuation 07/18 07/19 07/20 07/21E 07/22E 07/23E 07/24E 07/25E EBIT margin % 4.8 5.0 2.6 2.0 6.7 7.8 8.7 8.9 ROIC (EBIT) % 5.4 6.2 3.0 3.1 9.1 11.5 13.7 15.0 EV/EBITDA (core) x 13.5 7.8 9.9 8.7 8.5 8.0 7.1 6.6 P/E (UBS, diluted) x 40.6 17.3 (36.9) (15.0) 24.9 10.6 8.7 8.1 Equity FCF (UBS) yield % 4.7 4.6 (24.3) 0.0 7.3 (10.2) 9.0 9.4 Net dividend yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of CHF1.04 on 15 Mar 2021 17:06 GMT www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS AG. * Exception to core rating bands; See page 15. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 15. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Aryzta AG Buy * (Price target CHF1.50) UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what's where in this report PIVOTAL QUESTIONS Q: Can Aryzta deliver organic sales growth of 2-3% in line with the food sector? Yes. We see organic growth prospects of 2-3% per year medium term, in line with the average of the food sector at 2-3%. Aryzta's pre-baked technology offers customers with logistics cost advantages, resulting in some edge versus artisan bakers. Growth in emerging markets (c15% of Aryzta sales) is attractive mid to high single digit y/y. New management is also well connected in the bakery industry, supporting some market share prospects. Key customers of Aryzta in the quick service restaurant and retail/discount channel also enjoy growth prospects of 2-3% per year. Q: Can Aryzta improve its EBITDA margins to 13-15%? Yes, we forecast EBITDA margins to reach 13-15% (post IFRS 16- pre IFRS 11.5-13.5%), in line with some other bakery companies in Europe. Aryzta has c60% exposure to consumption on the street, including convenience channels with above-average margin prospects. Cost savings of c€20-30m, rising utilisation on easing consumer mobility restrictions and streamlining capacity (current utilisation c70-75%, UBSe) should support profitability. UBS VIEW We see Aryzta as a restructuring case, with attractive cash flow power in the medium to long term. 60% of its revenues are linked to consumption on the street, offering attractive margin prospects. Cost savings and rising utilisation (streamlining some capacity, return of consumer street traffic) should support profitability in the coming years. The announced divestment of the NA business supports de- levering the balance sheet and at the same time gives Aryzta room for growth investments. Management can now predominantly focus on the key value driver Europe. We expect the company to enjoy medium EFCF run rate prospects of €70-100m. Valuation looks attractive to us. Buy. EVIDENCE (1) Aryzta competitors such as Harry Brot enjoy 2-3% organic sales growth prospects per year. Aryzta's organic sales growth track record in Europe between 2014 and 2019 was c2%. (2) Our industry checks, including competitor profitability comparisons, reflect double-digit (10-15%) EBITDA margin prospects for the industry, in line with our 13-15% forecast for Aryzta over FY 23-25E. Hostess Brands even generates EBITDA margins of 20%+. (3) Aryzta announced a cost saving of c25% of central overhead costs in Europe. WHAT'S PRICED IN? Supported by our reverse DCF, we believe the share price reflects medium-term sales growth of 0-1% (UBSe 2-3%) with an EBTIDA margin of c8-10% (UBSe 13-15%). UPSIDE / DOWNSIDE ARYN.S Price CHF1.03 EPS (UBS) P/E (UBS) Upside to Downside SPECTRUM (€) 12/22E Implied 2.3 to 1 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 +75% 1.80 = 0.05 x 34.0x Upside: 1.50 1.50 = 0.04 x 36.1x Base: +46% 1.00 0.70 = 0.03 x 23.8x Downside: -32% 0.50 15 Mar +12 mo. 0.00 2019 2020 2021 Source: UBS Research Value drivers Organic sales EBITDA margin EBITDA EPS EFCF (FY 22E) CHF1.8 upside 20% 14% 260 0.045 85 CHF1.5 base 14% 13% 234 0.035 64 CHF0.7 downside 5.0% 11% 190 0.025 20 Source: UBS more COMPANY DESCRIPTION Aryzta provides a wide range of pre-baked bakery food products, including bread, croissants, bagels, cookies, muffins, donuts, and other pastries and snacks. Its key regional... more Joern Iffert, CFA, Analyst, [email protected], +41-44-23 91639 Aryzta AG 16 March 2021 2 Aryzta AG UBS Research Attractive turnaround story – North America divestment to unlock value prospects across the group return North America divestment to allow financial de- leverage and growth investments Aryzta announced it has signed a definitive agreement to sell 100% of its North American business in the US and Canada to an affiliate of Lindsay Goldberg LLC for a transaction price of US$850m (c€710m) in cash.
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