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The Social Networks of Small Arms Proliferation Mapping an Aviation Enabled Supply Chain

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The Social Networks of Small Arms Proliferation Mapping an Aviation Enabled Supply Chain View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2007-12 The social networks of small arms proliferation mapping an aviation enabled supply chain Curwen, Philip A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/3052 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE SOCIAL NETWORKS OF SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION: MAPPING AN AVIATION ENABLED SUPPLY CHAIN by Philip A. Curwen December 2007 Thesis Advisor: Nancy C. Roberts Second Reader: Douglas A. Borer Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2007 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Social Networks of Small Arms Proliferation: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Mapping an Aviation Enabled Supply Chain 6. AUTHOR(S) Philip A. Curwen 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) A complex network of dealers, brokers, financiers, and traffickers continue to funnel large quantities of small arms and ammunition into African conflict-zones despite the presence of United Nations arms embargoes. Weapons are often transported from arms producing countries in Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet States to remote locations in Africa by civil aircraft. This thesis will focus on the process by which weapons are bought and sold and the illicit nexus of arms brokerage and transportation networks that facilitate the deadly trade. This supply chain will be presented as the “anatomy of an arms deal” which can be further described using the statistical tools and measures of social network analysis. Selected case studies of proliferation events into the West African state of Liberia will be used to construct networks that can be compared to the supply chain model and possibly suggest additional points of intervention to halt this deadly trade. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Small Arms Proliferation, Weapon Trafficking, Arms Brokers, 15. NUMBER OF Transportation Agents, Civil Aviation, Arms Embargo Violation, Viktor Bout, Leonid Minin, PAGES Liberia 155 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE SOCIAL NETWORKS OF SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION: MAPPING AN AVIATION ENABLED SUPPLY CHAIN Philip A. Curwen Captain, United States Air Force B.A., San Diego State University, 1998 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2007 Author: Philip A. Curwen Approved by: Nancy C. Roberts Thesis Advisor Douglas A. Borer Second Reader Gordon McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT A complex network of dealers, brokers, financiers, and traffickers continue to funnel large quantities of small arms and ammunition into African conflict- zones despite the presence of United Nations arms embargoes. Weapons are often transported from arms producing countries in Eastern Europe and the post- Soviet States to remote locations in Africa by civil aircraft. This thesis will focus on the process by which weapons are bought and sold and the illicit nexus of arms brokerage and transportation networks that facilitate the deadly trade. This supply chain will be presented as the “anatomy of an arms deal” which can be further described using the statistical tools and measures of social network analysis. Selected case studies of proliferation events into the West African state of Liberia will be used to construct networks that can be compared to the supply chain model and possibly suggest additional points of intervention to halt this deadly trade. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 A. THE PROBLEM OF SMALL ARMS IN AFRICA.................................. 1 B. CONTROLLING SMALL ARMS PROLIFERATION ............................ 2 1. National Level .......................................................................... 4 2. Regional Level ......................................................................... 4 3. Global Level ............................................................................. 4 C. AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH......................................................... 5 1. Methodology ............................................................................ 6 2. Research Objectives ............................................................... 8 D. PRELUDE TO INDIVIDUAL CHAPTERS ............................................ 8 1. Chapter II: Conflict in Africa ................................................... 8 2. Chapter III: The Global Small Arms Supply Chain ................ 9 3. Chapter IV: Mapping Proliferation Networks of Liberia........ 9 4. Chapter V: Analytical Findings and Conclusion ................... 9 II. HISTORY OF WEAPONS AND REGULATION IN AFRICA ........................ 11 A. NEW WAY OF THINKING ABOUT AFRICA ..................................... 11 B. SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM ........................................................... 13 1. Collapse of the Soviet Union ................................................ 14 2. Globalization .......................................................................... 16 3. Emerging Exporters .............................................................. 18 C. THE ROLE OF SMALL ARMS IN AFRICAN CONFLICTS ............... 20 D. CONTROLLING THE SPREAD OF SMALL ARMS .......................... 23 1. National Level Regulations................................................... 25 a. Licensing Brokers and Transportation Agents ........ 27 b. Licensing Individual Arms Deals............................... 29 2. Regional Efforts ..................................................................... 31 3. Role of the International Community ................................... 35 E. SUMMARY......................................................................................... 37 III. THE GLOBAL SMALL ARMS SUPPLY CHAIN .......................................... 39 A. WHY SMALL ARMS? ........................................................................ 39 B. THE ANATOMY OF AN ARMS DEAL............................................... 40 1. Buyers and Sellers ................................................................ 42 2. Negotiating and Arms Deal: The Role of Brokers............... 45 a. Documenting the Sale: Invoices................................ 47 b. Financing the Arms Deal ............................................ 48 c. End-User and Export Documentation ....................... 50 d. Import and Transit Documentation............................ 52 3. Freight Forwarders and Transportation Agents ................. 54 a. Air waybill and Cargo Manifests................................ 55 b. Customs and Port Authorities ................................... 57 4. Air Operators and Illicit Arms Flights .................................. 59 vii a. Operators: Airlines, Integrators, and Charter Companies................................................................... 60 b. Aircraft Registration ................................................... 61 c. Flight Planning ............................................................ 63 d. Common Practices of Sanction Busting Flights ...... 64 C. SUMMARY OF THE SMALL ARMS SUPPLY CHAIN ...................... 67 IV. MAPPING THE PROLIFERATION NETWORKS OF LIBERIA .................... 71 A. INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 71 1. Liberia’s Culture of Violence ................................................ 71 2. Current Arms Embargo on Liberia ....................................... 73 B. NETWORK FUNDAMENTALS .........................................................
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