The United Kingdom Is Likely to Break up Into Its Constituent Parts. to What Extent Do You Agree?
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The United Kingdom is likely to break up into its constituent parts. To what extent do you agree? Throughout the years, the UK has undergone devolution. This has seen the constituent parts of the UK (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the various regions of England) granted autonomy, through legislatures, legal systems, councils, mayors etc. independent from Westminster. Devolution in the UK is highly unlikely to ever lead to federalism, as any sovereign body separate from Westminster would undermine the convention at the core of the UK constitution: parliamentary sovereignty. However, I would argue that, devolution legitimises a nation’s claim to independence as it grants them the necessary institutions to become independent. Therefore, the only likely way that the United Kingdom could split into its constituent parts is by said constituent parts becoming independent countries. For this to occur, the regions and countries of the UK would need to achieve economic, political and cultural independence from the union. Under the current British administration, I would argue that the independence of British nations and regions and thus the dissolution of the UK, is highly unlikely. However, developments under future administrations could lead to independence. 1. Economic independence To begin, the likelihood of UK regions achieving economic independence must be considered. Regions that are less economically conjoined to Westminster, will be in a greater position to become independent nations. Scotland, out of all regions, is perhaps the most likely to achieve economic independence. Although it remains heavily reliant on the union, with 60% of Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK in 20181, Scotland has a far greater GVA (the sum of the value of goods and services in an area), which was last measured in 2016 at £134 billion, than Wales or Northern Ireland and is only subordinate to three UK regions (London, South East and East England), as they have significantly larger populations. However, Scotland’s subordinate position in the UK economy also emboldens its calls for economic independence. Although having a strong economy, Scotland is economically dwarfed by England (with a GVA (last measured in 2016) of £1.5 trillion) 2. Therefore, if Scotland was to secede from the UK it would be able to do so without major economic impacts on the rest of the UK. Scotland’s calls for economic independence are also legitimised by Brexit. The current British administration believes that the UK will be more prosperous as independent from the EU, despite 45% of all UK exports and 53% of all imports going to and coming from the EU 3. 1 https://www.gov.scot/publications/export-stats-scotland-2018/ 2https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/bulletins/regionalgrossvalueaddedbalanceduk/1998t o2016/pdf 3 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/ By applying the same logic as the current British administration, Scotland should flourish as an economically independent nation. However, the same cannot be said for the other UK nations and regions. The economies of Wales and Northern Ireland are amongst the weakest of all regions, due to their populations of 3 million and 1.8 million respectively 4 5. Because of the historical links between Wales and England, their economies remain largely conjoined, with the ability to control some fiscal policies only being devolved to Wales in 2018. Northern Ireland is also largely dependent on Westminster. Due to the region’s troubled history, devolved political and economic powers have long been under Westminster’s control. With Northern Ireland’s Stormont only being reopened in January this year, they are in a weak position to embark on any projects for economic autonomy. The various regions and countries of England are also in no position to economically break away from the Union, as their economies remain too intertwined with one another. The only region of England with significant independent economic powers is London, with the Mayor of London setting tax and a budget, separate from Westminster. There is a reason for this: England’s economy is only as strong as its constituent parts, which are united by national industries such as agriculture and construction. For any region of England, to declare themselves economically independent would be unthinkable. It is therefore clear, that of all the areas of the United Kingdom, Scotland would be the most likely to economically secede from the United Kingdom. 2. Political and cultural independence Political and cultural independence go hand in hand. For politicians to succeed in negotiating their nation’s independence, they require the support of the people. Likewise, the people of a nation can relate to politicians better than they can to complex economics. Scotland, I would argue, should be considered the most likely to politically and culturally break away from the UK. Scotland has more levels of autonomy than any other region/country in the UK, with expanded policy areas, such as gas extraction and rail franchising, being introduced in 2016. Scotland’s parliament is well developed and utilises the proportional voting system of AMS. As the UK is only 1 of 3 European countries to utilise a non-proportional system (the other two being France and Belarus) 6 , this distances Scotland politically further from the rest of the UK and aligns them closer with the rest of Europe. I would also argue that such measures of devolution have not dampened calls for Scottish independence but have instead strengthened them. Each new devolved power can be seen by the Scottish people as a step closer to independence, rather than concessions granted in order to retain Scotland in the Union. This is exemplified by support for the very catalyst for Scottish independence: the SNP. In the 2019 general election, the SNP secured 4 https://gov.wales/mid-year-estimates-population-mid-2019 5 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2019-mid-year-population-estimates-northern-ireland 6 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/which-european-countries-use-proportional-representation/ an impressive electoral victory by claiming 48 out of 59 seats in the commons, clearly demonstrating the mass public support for the SNP and its belief in Scottish independence. The result of the 2019 general election also demonstrates how Scotland has already developed cultural independence. Votes for the SNP in 2019 were also votes to preserve the Gaelic language, to preserve Scotland’s cultural position in Europe and Scotland’s distinct LGBT+ culture. Whilst I appreciate that Scotland lacks certain political institutions, such as an entirely separate judiciary (with the UK’s supreme court acting as Scotland’s final court of appeal for civil cases), it is certainly in a strong position to become politically and, if it is not already, culturally independent. However, as with economic independence, Wales and Northern Ireland are in comparatively weak positions. Both nations lack significant governmental infrastructure necessary for an independent country. Wales lacks an independent judiciary, with the Welsh court system a part of the English one. Northern Ireland, on the other hand, lacks a fully functional legislature. The Northern Irish Stormont has only been functional since January 2020 after being restored following 3 years of deadlock. Stormont regularly relies on intervention from Westminster as its dual leadership (with 1 minister from the republican Sinn Féin and the other from the unionist DUP) often struggling to cooperate. Both Wales and Northern Ireland remain heavily politically intertwined with Westminster. Furthermore, cultural independence remains a more complex issue in these regions. With Welsh nationalism stifled long ago by the English crown, it is no surprise that the major British parties consistently outperform Plaid Cymru. The failure of Plaid Cymru to achieve mass support in wales has a knock-on effect of discouraging welsh nationalism, with a September 2019 YouGov poll demonstrating how only 24% would vote for an independent Wales 7. Northern Irish cultural independence is perhaps even more complex, with public opinion divided between republicanism, with the aim of reuniting Northern Ireland with the Republic, and unionism, with the goal of preserving Northern Ireland’s place in the UK. As demonstrated by the repeated suspensions of Stormont and the Troubles of the 80s and 90s, Northern Irish politicians and the public are unable to work towards the common goal of seceding from the UK. It is highly unlikely that Wales or Northern Ireland will, in the near future, break away politically and/or culturally. The same should be said for the regions of England, with the only significant devolved governmental powers being the London Assembly and the Mayor of London. The regions of the UK remain too closely intertwined by the familiar and traditional Westminster system. Furthermore, regionalist cultural movements remain at the fringe of British politics. Perhaps the region with one of the strongest cultural identities in the UK is Yorkshire. However, the dismal electoral success of the regionalist Yorkshire Party in the 2019 General Election, which saw no candidate garner more than 3.7% of the constituency vote 8, stands to show 7 https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4lav01m6zl/PlaidCymruResults_190910_ Independence_W.pdf 8 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000836 that there is little demand for greater autonomy in England’s regions. Therefore, England’s regions are far from achieving cultural or political independence. 3. Obstructions to and the likelihood of independence As evaluated above, Scotland is perhaps the only nation in any real position to break away from the UK. However, there exist barriers to Scotland’s independence which must be considered. Firstly, the attitudes of the current British administration. Boris Johnson’s conservative government has taken an unapologetically British approach to government. His 2019 election campaign focussed heavily on a Britain united against an overbearing EU.