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U.S. Retail Industry

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U.S. Retail Industry U.S. RETAIL INDUSTRY Presented by: Kris Li Queenie Nguyen Ravi Khunkhun Sunny Singh 1 Agenda ● U.S. Retail Market Analysis ● Costco ● Home Depot ● Walmart 2 What Is Retailing? ● Retail is the process of selling consumer goods and/or services to customers through multiple channels of distribution to earn a profit ● Retail is important because it allows manufacturers to focus on producing goods without having to be distracted by the enormous amount of effort that it takes to interact with the end-user customers who want to purchase those goods 3 U.S. Retail Industry Overview In 2016, total retail sales were $4.846 trillion for the year, a 2.5% jump from $4.73 trillion in 2015 4 Total Retail Sales in the U.S. from 1992 to 2015 (in trillion US$) 5 Estimated Per Capita Sales in the U.S. from 2000 to 2015 (in US$) 6 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. at Current Prices from 2010 to 2020 (in billion US$) 7 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate in the U.S., 2010 - 2020 (compared to previous year) 8 Projected Annual Inflation Rate in the United States from 2008 to 2021* 9 SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) SPDR S&P Retail ETF 10 Relationship Between the Retail Industry and the U.S. Economy ● The correlation between the S&P 500 (SPX) Broad Market Index and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is 0.91 ● The US GDP (gross domestic product) has a correlation of 0.94 with the retail ETF 11 Projected Number of Employees in the Retail Industry in the U.S. from 2016 to 2026 (in million) 12 Projected Number of Employees in the Retail Industry in the U.S., 2016 and 2026, By Firm Size 13 Projected Number of Firms in the Retail Industry in the U.S. from 2016 to 2026 14 Leading American Retailers in 2015, Based on U.S. Retail Sales (in billion US$) 15 U.S. Retail Industry Overview 16 U.S. Retail Industry Overview ● Sales per square foot is a popular sales metric used in the retailing industry; Sales per square foot is simply the average revenue a retail business creates for every square foot of sales space ● Retail sales per square foot is a popular way for retailers to determine how successful store sales have been ● The average regional mall sales per square foot is $341 and most big box retailers average between $250 to $350 17 Retail Sales Per Foot 18 U.S. Retailers with the Highest Sales Per Square Foot in 2014 (in US$) Sales per square foot of the Home Depot and Walmart in 2015 are respectively $370.55 and $434 19 Leading Most Valuable Retail Brands in 2017 (in million US$) 20 Structure of the Industry: Competition and Market Dynamics Big-Box & Department Store Retailers: ● Broad range of general merchandise, such as apparel, jewelry, cosmetics, home furnishings, general household products, toys, appliances and sporting goods ● Discount department stores are also include ● Walmart, Best Buy, The Home Depot and Ikea Warehouse Club & Supercenter Retailers: ● General line of grocery products, along with merchandise items ● Warehouse clubs offer customers a wide selection of goods (often in bulk) at discounted prices, in exchange for a membership fee paid by each customer ● Costco and BJ’s Wholesale Club 21 Structure of the Industry: Competition and Market Dynamics Supermarkets & Grocery Stores: ● General lines of food products, including fresh and prepared meats, poultry and seafood, canned and frozen foods, fresh fruits and vegetables and various dairy products ● Safeway, Whole Foods Market and The Kroger Company E-tailers: ● Selling retail goods on the Internet ● Including e-commerce and online auction websites whose primary activity is selling goods online Dell and Amazon.com 22 Structure of the Industry 23 Key Factors for Success Ability to Control Stock on Hand Seasonal goods and products Most of annual sales occurring between October and December Require tight stock control measures to ensure reordering and to maximize sales Customer Centric Workforce Retail stores require sales staff that are friendly, helpful and provide excellent customer service Ability to Expand and Curtail Expand operations during peak periods to meet increased demand (i.e., Christmas trading) Curtail operations during weaker trading conditions (i.e., economic slowdown) Attractive Product Presentation Effective layout and design, good shelf management, friendly and helpful service and a clean environment Strong Logistics and Distribution Backbone Control margins and costs through efficient and effective logistics and distribution systems between its manufacturers and among its stores to properly manage inventory 24 Key External Factors of Growth Internal Industry Competition Per Capita Disposable Income Consumer Confidence Index Population 25 Retail Industry Mature Life Cycle Industry value added (IVA): a measure of an industry or industry segment’s contribution to the U.S. economy Decline phase: IVA falls below GDP Growth phase: IVA outpaces GDP Mature phase: IVA mirrors GDP U.S. GDP is anticipated to rise an at annualized rate of 2.5% in the 10 years to 2020 26 Retail Industry Mature Life Cycle The Big-Box & Department Store Retailer: ● Decline phase ● In the 10 years to 2020, IVA is expected to decline at an annualized rate of about 4.6% The Warehouse Club & Supercenter Retailer: ● Mature phase ● In the 10 years to 2020, IVA is forecast to increase at a rate of 2.5% per year on average, mirroring U.S. GDP 27 Retail Industry Mature Life Cycle The Supermarkets and Grocery Stores: ● Mature phase ● The Supermarkets and Grocery Stores industry is in the mature stage of its life cycle. However, in the 10 years to 2020, IVA is expected to increase at a relatively slow rate of 0.6% per year on average The E-tailer: ● Growth phase ● In the 10 years to 2020, IVA is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 12.8%. High IVA growth relative to the economy as a whole is highly indicative of a growing life cycle stage 28 Retail e-commerce Sales in the U.S. from 1st Quarter 2009 to 1st Quarter 2017 (in million US$) 29 The Supply Chain for Retail Foods Final Sale Price = COGS + Wholesalers’ Gross Margin + Retailers’ Gross Margin Retailers’ Gross Margin = Retailers’ Profit Margin + Cost of Doing Business 30 Retail Cost of Doing Business Main Cost = Labor Cost (47%) + Occupancy Cost (15%) Other costs of doing business include utilities, professional and financial services, and distribution 31 Retail Cost of Doing Business Labor costs include wages, other workers’ compensation and payroll taxes 32 Retail Cost of Doing Business Occupancy costs include those costs associated with maintaining a shop, office or warehouse space Occupancy costs generally include rent and other fees paid to landlords for shared services and facilities such as security, air conditioning, lighting, marketing, and the operation of car parks 33 Retail Industry Is Evolving Changes in consumer behavior The household saving ratio is the ratio of net saving to net disposable income 34 Retail Industry Is Evolving Technological change 35 COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP Prepared by: Queenie Nguyen 36 Stock Overview 37 5-Day Performance 38 6-Month Performance 39 1-Year Performance 40 3-Year Performance 41 5-Year Performance 42 10-Year Performance 43 Max Timeframe Performance 44 Performance Comparison - Index 45 Company Overview • 2nd largest global retailer • 15the largest in Fortune 500 • $77B market capital • 213K employees worldwide • >2.5M transactions/day • 729 warehouses worldwide • 88.9M total cardholders • 88% membership renewal rate worldwide 46 Company Overview • Merchandise offered at Costco: ➢ Food (dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries) ➢ Sundries (snacks, candy, alcohol and non-alcohol beverages, and cleaning supplies) ➢ Hardlines (major appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio) ➢ Fresh Foods (meat, produce, deli, and bakery) ➢ Softlines (apprarel and small appliances) ➢ Others (gas stations and pharmacy) 47 Percentage of Net Sales by Merchandise Category 48 Historical Highlights • First warehouse for business shoppers only was opened in San Diego, CA in 1976 under the name “Price Club” • First Costco was founded in 1983 in Seattle, WA • In 1993, the Price Company and Costco merged to form PriceCostco, then changed the name to Costco Companies Inc. in 1997 • Costco was the first company to ever grow from $0 to $3B in sales in less than 6 years • Its strategy is to “keep costs down and pass on the savings to our members” 49 Mission To continually provide our members with quality goods and services at the lowest possible prices 50 Code of Ethics • Obey the law • Take care of our members • Take care of our employees • Respect our suppliers If we do these four things throughout our organization, then we will achieve our ultimate goal, which is to: Reward our shareholders 51 Strategies • Cost leadership • Private label • Membership • Expansion 52 Strategies - Cost Leadership • Wal-Mart and other retail giants also use this strategy • No-frills approach, doesn’t advertise as much as other giants, then use that savings to pay employees high wages, so they can better serve customers with higher productivity; The employee turnover is also reduced to save money for the company • Offer limited number of items and private labels to increase sale volume, help drive discounts and further differentiate from competitors (suppliers must bid for Costco shelf space, thus willing to give better price; save shipping costs and time spent to organize inventory) • Sell packaged items in large sizes or multiple-packs, so the cost per unit is usually materially less than other retailers 53 Strategies - Cost Leadership • Previous financial statements showed that maximum mark-up is 14% and ability to negotiate the lowest costs with suppliers to keep the consistently lower prices • Unlike regular stores who do loss leader strategy by sending out weekly flyer with amazing sale drops, Costco keeps the same loss leaders week after week (such as gas, rotisserie chicken, hot dog and soda combo, etc.) • To attract more memberships, Costco has continued to expand gasoline operations globally, with almost all new U.S.
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