DOCSLIB.ORG

Natural Hazards and Environmental Change

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Natural Hazards and Environmental Change Key Issues in Environmental Change Series Editors: Co-ordinating Editor John A. Matthews Department of Geography, University of Wales Swansea, UK Editors Raymond S. Bradley Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA Neil Roberts Department of Geography, University of Plymouth, UK Martin A. J. Williams Mawson Graduate Centre for Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, Australia This page intentionally left blank Preface to the series The study of environmental change is a major growth area of interdisciplinary science. Indeed, the intensity of current scientific activity in the field of environmental change may be viewed as the emergence of a new area of 'big science' alongside such recognized fields as nuclear physics, astronomy and biotechnology. The science of environmental change is fundamental science on a grand scale: rather different from nuclear physics but nevertheless no less important as a field of knowledge, and probably of more significance in terms of the continuing success of human societies in their occupation of the Earth's surface. The need to establish the pattern and causes of recent climatic changes, to which human activities have contributed, is the main force behind the increasing scientific interest in environ- mental change. Only during the past few decades have the scale, intensity and permanence of human impacts on the environment been recognized and begun to be understood. A mere 5000 years ago, in the mid-Holocene, non-local human impacts were more or less negligible even on vegetation and soils. Today, however, pollutants have been detected in the Earth's most remote regions, and environmental processes, including those of the atmosphere and oceans, are being affected at a global scale. Natural environmental change has, however, occurred throughout Earth's history. Large-scale natural events as abrupt as those associated with human environmental impacts are known to have occurred in the past. The future course of natural environmental change may in some cases exacerbate human-induced change; in other cases, such changes may neutralize the human effects. It is essential, therefore, to view current and future environmental changes, like global warming, in the context of the broader perspective of the past. This linking theme provides the distinctive focus of the series and is mentioned explicitly in many of the titles listed overleaf. It is intended that each book in the series will be an authoritative, scholarly and accessible synthesis that will become known for advancing the conceptual framework of studies in environ- mental change. In particular we hope that each book will inform advanced undergraduates and be an inspiration to young research workers. To this end, all the invited authors are experts in their respective fields and are active at the research frontier. They are, moreover, broadly repre- sentative of the interdisciplinary and international nature of environmental change research today. Thus, the series as a whole aims to cover all the themes normally considered as key issues in environmental change even though individual books may take a particular viewpoint or approach. John A. Matthews (Co-ordinating Editor) Titles in the series Already published: Cultural Landscapes and Environmental Change (Lesley Head, University of Wollongong, Australia) Environmental Change in Mountains and Uplands (Martin Beniston, University of Fribourg, Switzerland) Glaciers and Environmental Change (Atle Nesje and Svein Olaf Dahl, Bergen University, Norway) Forthcoming: The Oceans and Environmental Change (Alastair Dawson, Department of Geography, Coventry University, UK) Pollution of Lakes and Rivers: a Palaeoecological Perspective (John Smol, Queen's University, Canada) Atmospheric Pollution: an Environmental Change Perspective (Sarah Metcalfe, Edinburgh University, UK) Biodiversity: an Environmental Change Perspective (Peter Gell, Adelaide University, Australia) Climatic Change: a Palaeoenvironmental Perspective (Cary Mock, University of South Carolina, USA) Natural Hazards and Environmental Change Bill McGuire Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College London Ian Mason Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London Christopher Kilburn Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College London A member of the Hodder Headline Group LONDON Co-published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press Inc., New York First published in Great Britain in 2002 by Arnold, a member of the Hodder Headline Group, 338 Euston Road, London NW1 3BH http://www.arnoldpublishers.com Co-published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press Inc., 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY10016 © 2002 Bill McGuire, Ian Mason and Christopher Kilburn All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronically or mechanically, including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without either prior permission in writing from the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying. In the United Kingdom such licences are issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency: 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WIT 4LP. The advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of going to press, but neither the author[s] nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN 0 340 74219 4 (hb) ISBN 0 340 74220 8 (pb) 12345678910 Production Editor: Wendy Rooke Production Controller: Martin Kerans Cover Design: Mousemat Design Typeset in 10/11½pt Palatino by Phoenix Photosetting, Chatham, Kent Printed and bound in Malta by Gutenberg Press Ltd What do you think about this book? Or any other Arnold title? Please send your comments to [email protected] Contents Preface IX Acknowledgements x List of abbreviations xi Chapter I Natural hazards: an introduction I 1.0 Chapter summary 1 1.1 What are natural hazards? 1 1.2 Natural hazards and environmental change 2 1.3 Natural hazard impacts: a historical perspective 5 1.4 A natural hazards primer 10 1.5 Recent environmental change 14 Chapter 2 Windstorms in a warmer world 18 2.0 Chapter summary 18 2.1 Weather-related natural hazards and climate change 18 2.2 Observing and predicting trends in weather-related hazards 23 2.3 Mid-latitude storminess in a warmer world 29 2.4 Tropical cyclones, tornadoes, derechos and dust storms as the climate changes 40 Chapter 3 Floods and other weather-related hazards in a changing climate 53 3.0 Chapter summary 53 3.1 River flooding and environmental change 53 3.2 Trends in rainfall extremes that can cause river flooding 55 3.3 Coastal floods and climate change 60 3.4 Changes in other hydrological and temperature extremes 61 Chapter 4 Landslides and environmental change 65 4.0 Chapter summary 65 4.1 Impact of landslides 65 4.2 Types of landslide 67 4.3 Sluggish deformation 70 4.4 Catastrophic deformation 74 4.5 Intermediate deformation 77 viii CONTENTS 4.6 Water and slope failure 80 4.7 Water and landslide run-out 84 4.8 Effect of environmental change on global rates of landsliding 86 4.9 The future 87 Chapter 5 Volcanoes and environmental change 88 5.0 Chapter summary 88 5.1 Volcanism and environmental change: a brief history of research 88 5.2 Eruption characteristics and environmental impact 90 5.3 Contribution of volcanic eruptions to the atmosphere 94 5.4 Physical and chemical effects of volcanogenic aerosols on the atmosphere 96 5.5 Volcanoes and climate 97 5.6 Volcanoes as initiators of past environmental change: notes of caution 104 5.7 Volcanic super-eruptions and environmental change 105 5.8 Volcanoes and Ice Age 108 5.9 Volcanoes and mass extinctions 110 Chapter 6 Sea-level change as a trigger of natural hazards 112 6.0 Chapter summary 112 6.1 Changing sea levels and natural hazards 112 6.2 Perspectives on future sea-level change 117 6.3 Sea-level change as an initiator of seismicity and volcanism 121 6.4 Changing sea levels, submarine landslides and collapsing ocean islands 125 Chapter 7 Asteroid and comet impacts as initiators of environmental change 133 7.0 Chapter summary 133 7.1 Setting the scene: the new catastrophism 133 7.2 Recognising the impact threat 134 7.3 Asteroids and comets 137 7.4 The impact record on Earth 138 7.5 Environmental effects of impact events 144 Chapter 8 Environmental change and natural hazards: prospects for the future 159 8.0 Chapter summary 159 8.1 Environmental change and natural hazards: the impact in the twenty-first century 159 8.2 Natural hazards: the human dimension 161 8.3 Forecast for the future 162 References 165 Index 181 Preface Natural hazards are exacting an increasing toll across the planet, particularly in the developing world but also in the industrialised countries, and last year they affected one in thirty people. As we show later, hazards and a changing environment are intimately linked, and as the world enters a period of unprecedented environmental change that we ourselves are driving, prospects for a reduction in natural hazard impacts look bleak. A combination of growing vulnerability and global warming seems set to ensure that few will escape - in years to come - the direct or indirect consequences of flood, windstorm, landslide, wildfire and other geophysical hazards. Since the following chapters were written, two significant events have conspired to make the picture even more depressing. Early in 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its third assessment report. This revealed that the speed and impact of anthropogenic climate change is likely to be substantially greater than previously thought, with temperatures forecast to rise by up to 8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 'Lothar Successor' - the Forgotten Storm After Christmas 1999
    Phenomenological examination of 'Lothar Successor' - the forgotten storm after Christmas 1999 by F. Welzenbach Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics Innsbruck 04 April 2010, preliminary version Abstract The majority of scientific research to the notorious storms in December 1999 focuses on 'Lothar' and 'Martin' causing most of the damage to properties and fatalities in Central Europe. Few studies have been performed in the framework of the passage of storm 'Lothar Successor' (introduced in a case study of the Manual of synoptic satellite meteorology featured by ZAMG) between these two events being responsible for some gusts in exceed of 90 km/h between Northern France, Belgium and Southwestern Germany. The present study addresses to the phenomenology and possible explanations of that secondary cyclogenesis just after the passage of 'Lothar' and well before the arrival of 'Martin'. Facing different theories and findings in several papers it will be shown that the storm possessed a closed circulation and a fully developed frontal system. That key finding is especially in contrast to the analysis of the German Weather Service which suggested that solely a 'trough line' crossed Germany. The point whether a warm or a cold conveyor belt cyclogenesis produced the storm could not be entirely clarified. Finally, reasons are given for which 'Lothar Successor' had not become a 'second Lothar', amongst others the unfavourable position between two jetstreams with lack of sufficient cyclonic vorticity advection. 1. Introduction The motivation for reviewing the events from late December 1999 is mainly due to personal experience between the passage of 'Lothar' (26.12.1999) and 'Martin' (28.12.1999) in Lower Franconia close to Miltenberg (at the river Main between Frankfurt and Wuerzburg).
    [Show full text]
  • A Summary of Flooding Events in Boston
    1810 flooding (4-10 fatalities) - http://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/200-years-flood-end-floods/story-11195470-detail/story.html the text below from the website does mention Fishtoft and Fosdyke as areas that were affected: "AS many as 10 people may have died during the great flood of 1810, which engulfed the area in the pitch black of night and without warning. The total loss of life has only now been revealed, following research into archived material. Historian Hilary Healey has researched the incident and uncovered details of the deaths, which reveal the body count to be much more than the four believed to have perished. In Fosdyke, a servant girl of farmer Mr Birkett found herself surrounded by the sea in a pasture while milking cows and was washed away. Also in Fosdyke, an elderly woman in the course of the night was washed out of an upper window of her cottage and drowned. At Fishtoft, Mr Smith Jessop, a farmer's son, was drowned while trying to rescue some of his father's sheep. Accounts of the flood are few, but the Stamford Mercury recorded some inquests which may have been held at Boston court. These included a youth, William Green, about 16 years old, who drowned at Fishtoft, another unidentified boy, thought to have been from a fishing boat called the Amber Blay, and John Jackson and William Black, also from a wrecked vessel. Inquests were also held into the deaths of two women from Fosdyke, Esther Tunnard and Ann Burton, drowned by the flood inundating their cottages (one of them may have been the person referred to above).
    [Show full text]
  • The XWS Open Access Catalogue of Extreme European Windstorms from 1979 to 2012
    Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, 2014 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2487/2014/ doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012 J. F. Roberts1, A. J. Champion2, L. C. Dawkins3, K. I. Hodges4, L. C. Shaffrey5, D. B. Stephenson3, M. A. Stringer2, H. E. Thornton1, and B. D. Youngman3 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 2Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK 3College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 4National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK 5National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK Correspondence to: J. F. Roberts (julia.roberts@metoffice.gov.uk) Received: 13 January 2014 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 7 March 2014 Revised: 8 August 2014 – Accepted: 12 August 2014 – Published: 22 September 2014 Abstract. The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue con- 1 Introduction sists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter wind- European windstorms are extratropical cyclones with very storms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue strong winds or violent gusts that are capable of produc- is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and ing devastating socioeconomic impacts. They can lead to industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users structural damage, power outages to millions of people, and to characterise extreme European storms, and validate cli- closed transport networks, resulting in severe disruption and mate and catastrophe models.
    [Show full text]
  • Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change
    Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change Key Contacts Trevor Maynard Head of Exposure Management & Reinsurance Telephone: +44 (0)20 7327 6141 [email protected] Nick Beecroft Manager, Emerging Risks & Research Telephone: +44 (0)20 7327 5605 [email protected] Sandra Gonzalez Executive, Emerging Risks & Research Telephone: +44 (0)20 7327 6921 [email protected] Lauren Restell Exposure Management Executive Telephone: +44 (0)20 7327 6496 [email protected] Contributing authors: Professor Ralf Toumi is Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the Department of Physics, Imperial College London. He is also a director of OASIS LMF Ltd which promotes open access for catastrophe modelling. Lauren Restell has worked in catastrophe modelling in the London market since 2006. Prior to joining Lloyd’s Exposure Management, she held positions with Aon Benfield and Travelers following completion of an MSc in Climate Change at the University of East Anglia. Case studies: The case studies were provided by Professor James Elsner (Climatek), Madeleine-Sophie Déroche (Climate – Knowledge Innovation Centre), Dr Ioana Dima and Shane Latchman (AIR), Professor Rob Lamb, Richard Wylde and Jessica Skeggs (JBA), Iain Willis (EQECAT) and Dr Paul Wilson (RMS). Acknowledgements: Lloyd’s would also like to thank Matthew Foote (Mitsui Sumitomo), Steven Luck (W. R. Berkley Syndicate) and Luke Knowles (Catlin) for their input to the report. Disclaimer This report has been produced by Lloyd's for general information purposes only. While care has been taken in gathering the data and preparing the report, Lloyd's does not make any representations or warranties as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly excludes to the maximum extent permitted by law all those that might otherwise be implied.
    [Show full text]
  • Scientific Program
    IUGG XXIV GENERAL ASSEMBLY Perugia, July 2-13, 2007 02 July, 2007 J. Taylor, Matt J. Bailey, Natalia Solorzano, Thomas Jeremy, Robert H. 02:16 pm Geophysical survey of the Fagnano pluton. Tierra del UL001 Our Changing Climate: A Global Policy Issue, Holzworth, Steven Cummer, Nicolas Jaugey, Osmar Pinto, Nelson J. Schuch, Fuego. Argentina Robert W. Corell: Invited Speacher Marcos Michels, Vinicius T. Rampinelli. Speaker Sao Sabbas Fernanda Vilas Juan Francisco, Tassone A., Peroni J. I., Lippai H., Oral 2 July, 2007 from 08:30 AM to 09:30 AM - Rectorate Main Hall 12:15 pm Investigating Sprite Halo Optical Signatures and Menichetti M, Lodolo E. Speaker Vilas Juan Francisco US001 Our Changing Planet (Part 1) Associated Lightning Characteristics over South America Conveners: Peltier Richard Taylor Michael, S. Cummer, J. Li, F. Sao Sabbas, J. Thomas, 02:32 pm Paleomagnetism of Late Tertiary lava flows from Oral 2 July, 2007 from 09:30 AM to 12:30 AM - Rectorate Main Hall R. Holzworth, O. Pinto, N. Schuch. Speaker Taylor Michael Lundarhals, Storutjarnir, and Su durdalur, Iceland 09:30 am Solar Forcing Of Global Climate Over The Instrumental Era Oral 2 July, 2007 from 02:00 PM to 05:30 PM - Department of Physics Kono Masaru. Speaker Kono Masaru Lean Judith. Speaker Lean Judith Room B 02:48 pm Break-up of Pangea and early Mesozoic plate motions in 09:55 am Monitoring the Variability in the Atlantic Meridional 02:00 pm Balloon electric field measurements in the vicinity of an the central Atlantic, Atlas and Tethys regions Overturning Circulation at 25_N active convective storm Schettino Antonio, Eugenio Turco.
    [Show full text]
  • Report Influencing the SPR for Storm Surge Events
    Report Influencing the SPR for storm surge events A cross-border XBeach application Date: 31 May 2021 Status: final 1 Report Colophon Published by Interreg North Sea Region VB – Building with Nature Authors Simon Hillmann (NLWKN) Karl-Søren Geertsen (DCA) Ellen Quataert (Deltares) Rena Hoogland (Rijkswaterstaat) Bjørn Frederiksen (DCA) Contact Rena Hoogland (Rijkswaterstaat) Phone +316 21 47 90 41 E-mail [email protected] Date 31 May 2021 Status final Version 2.0 2 Report Table of content Table of content ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.1.1 Interreg NSR VB Building with Nature project ................................................................ 5 1.1.2 Goal of the current study ................................................................................................ 5 1.2 Research questions ................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Reading guide .......................................................................................................................... 6 2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Atlas Reinsurance VII Limited Aon Benfield Securities, Inc. BNP
    OFFERING CIRCULAR Atlas Reinsurance VII Limited $60,000,000 Class A Principal-at-Risk Variable Rate Notes due January 7, 2016 €130,000,000 Class B Principal-at-Risk Variable Rate Notes due January 7, 2016 Atlas Reinsurance VII Limited (the “Issuer”) is hereby offering $60,000,000 Class A Principal-at-Risk Variable Rate Notes due January 7, 2016 (the “Class A Notes”) and €130,000,000 Class B Principal-at-Risk Variable Rate Notes due January 7, 2016 (the “Class B Notes” and, together with the Class A Notes, the “Notes”). Each of the Class A Notes and the Class B Notes are referred to herein as a “Class” or “Class of Notes.” The Issuer is an Irish private limited company authorized as a special purpose reinsurance vehicle in Ireland. The Issuer’s business will consist solely of the issuance of the Notes and the entering into and performance of the Reinsurance Agreements, and related agreements and activities, including the acquisition and holding of the Permitted Investments. The purpose for offering each Class of Notes (this “Offering”) is to collateralize and fund the Issuer’s obligations under the corresponding Reinsurance Agreement pursuant to which the Issuer will be required to make certain payments to the Ceding Reinsurer upon the occurrence of certain specified Covered Events during the applicable Risk Period, as further described in this Offering Circular. This Offering Circular has been approved by the Central Bank of Ireland (the “Central Bank”), as competent authority under the Prospectus Directive 2003/71/EC (the “Prospectus Directive”). The Central Bank only approves this Offering Circular as meeting the requirements imposed under Irish and EU law pursuant to the Prospectus Directive 2003/71/EC.
    [Show full text]
  • European Extratropical Cyclones
    European Extratropical Cyclones IMPLICATIONS FOR LOCAL INSURERS 0 European Extratropical Cyclones | TransRe White Paper by James Rohman | May 2014 ! 1 2 ! Introduction " 1" 2 This paper highlights the climatology, characteristics, history and climate change projections of European Extratropical Cyclones. " " January 2014" was the fourth warmest since record keeping began in 1880, yet it fell in the middle of the most extreme winter Europe (and the Northeast US) has experienced in 15 years. A nexus of storms brought high winds, heavy rainfall and severe snowstorms for almost five months, causing flooding and damage to life onshore and at sea. Such prodigious weather patterns indicate equally prodigious climate disturbances. Many of those storms formed as Extratropical Cyclone s (ETC). The first3 section of this paper discusses the large-scale climate 4 variations and indices that encourage and energize ETC development. Every year, roughly" 200 atmospheric disturbances form in the North 3 4" Atlantic. A handful of the disturbances, which develop as cold-core and 4 asymmetric cyclones, morph into organized storms and track east towards Europe. The second section summarizes the characteristics and dynamics " of these pandemonium-inducing windstorms. " On average, European ETCs create $1.2 billion of insured loss per year. In extreme years with multiple tail events, they can be the leading cause of global storm losses; in 1990 and 1999, they caused $18 billion and $14 billion of insured losses, respectively. The 2014 season is expected to exceed $5.5 billion in insured loss. Section three covers the finer points of the European ETC archival record. 5 6 ETCs that form in the North Atlantic are among nature’s most powerful cyclones on earth, deriving their energy from the interaction and difference between cold Arctic air masses and warm subtropical air masses.
    [Show full text]
  • Revisiting the Synoptic-Scale Predictability of Severe European Winter Storms Using ECMWF Ensemble Reforecasts
    Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1795–1810, 2017 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017 © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Correspondence to: Florian Pantillon (fl[email protected]) Received: 30 March 2017 – Discussion started: 31 March 2017 Revised: 15 September 2017 – Accepted: 18 September 2017 – Published: 19 October 2017 Abstract. New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability tion lies in the trends in frequency and intensity of winter of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 pe- storms in the current and future climate. To date, there is lit- riod are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble refore- tle agreement between climate models and between identifi- cast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range cation methods (see Feser et al., 2015, for a review). The in- Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is as- tensity of storms is not necessarily related to their impact and sessed with different metrics including (a) the track and in- storm losses are better estimated from the strength of winds tensity to investigate the storms’ dynamics and (b) the Storm or wind gusts exceeding a certain threshold (Klawa and Ul- Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind brich, 2003). Numerous studies are therefore dedicated to the gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble estimation of the footprint of strong winds and gusts associ- up to 2–4 days ahead.
    [Show full text]
  • Windthrow Risk Assessment of Douglas-Fir Stands in Denmark a Comparison Study of Douglas-Fir (Pseudotsuga Menziesii) and Norway Spruce (Picea Abies)
    UNIVERSITY OF COPENH AGEN FACULTY OF SCIENCE Master’s Thesis Lauge Decker Windthrow risk assessment of Douglas-fir stands in Denmark A comparison study of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) Academic advisor: Jette Bredahl Jacobsen Submitted: August 6th, 2018 Name of University: University of Copenhagen Name of faculty: Faculty of Science Name of department: Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO) MSc programme Forest and Nature Management Author: Lauge Decker Workload: 30 ECTS Title and subtitle: Windthrow risk assessment of Douglas-fir stands in Denmark A comparison study of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) Titel og undertitel Risikovurdering for stormfald i Douglas gran i Danmark Et sammenligningsstudie mellem Douglas gran (Pseudotsuga menziesii) og Rødgran (Picea abies) Subject description: The thesis aims to better understand the risk of wind and storm damage in Douglas-fir, hence a more precise economic calculation for a given stands rotation. The project uses data from different regions in Denmark. This data is provided by the nature agency. Further, the hypothesis around Douglas-fir being more stable as it develops in age, is investigated. Academic advisor: Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Professor and Deputy head of department, University of Copenhagen Submitted: August 6th, 2018 Frontpage photo: Decker, L. (2016) Douglas-fir at the nature agency’s district Søhøjlandet. “To predict and reduce forest losses due to windthrow, it has long been recognised that data are required that describe the stability and anchorage of trees in relation to species, tree characteristics, site, soil, climate, and forest-management techniques” - Bruce C. Nicoll ( I ) Preface The work presented in this thesis is an analysis of the stand specific characteristics determining risk of windthrow in Douglas-fir.
    [Show full text]
  • Extreme Windstorms and Sting-Jets in Convection- Permitting Climate Simulations Over Europe
    Extreme windstorms and sting-jets in convection- permitting climate simulations over Europe Colin Manning ( [email protected] ) Newcastle University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5364-3569 Elizabeth J. Kendon Met Oce Hayley J. Fowler Newcastle University School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Nigel M. Roberts Met Oce Ségolène Berthou Met Oce Dan Suri Met Oce Malcolm J. Roberts Met Oce Research Article Keywords: Sting-jet, Windstorm, Convection Permitting Model, Extreme Wind Speeds Posted Date: April 8th, 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-378067/v1 License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Page 1/28 Abstract Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting-jet are extremely damaging. A sting-jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro-Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting-jets. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro-Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations over Europe. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations; this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting-jets in the CPM. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro-Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting-jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates.
    [Show full text]
  • Three Extreme Storms Over Europe in December 1999
    Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999 Article Published Version Ulbrich, U., Fink, A. H., Klawa, M. and Pinto, J. G. (2001) Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999. Weather, 56 (3). pp. 70-80. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06540.x Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32834/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher’s version if you intend to cite from the work. See Guidance on citing . Published version at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06540.x To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.2001.tb06540.x Publisher: Wiley All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading’s research outputs online Weather Vol. 56 March 2001 Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999 U. Ulbrich, A. H. Fink, M. Klawa and J. G. Pinto lnstitut fur Geophysik und Meteorologie der Universitat zu Koln, Germany In December 1999, central Europe was hit by (DWD) (the DWD gives a name to each North three violent storms, which claimed more than Atlantic cyclone). At the Danish and German 130 lives and caused about 13 billion Euros North Sea coast, gales of more than 50 m s ~ worth of total economic losses.
    [Show full text]