Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change
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The Air Severe Thunderstorm Model for the United States
In 2011, six severe thunderstorms The AIR Severe generated insured losses of over USD 1 billion each. Total losses from Thunderstorm 24 separate outbreaks that year exceeded USD 26 billion. With the potential for insured losses on both an Model for the occurrence and aggregate basis this high, companies need the best tools available to assess and mitigate U.S. United States severe thunderstorm risk. THE AIR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MODEL FOR THE UNITED STATES The AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model AIR Worldwide has developed for the United States estimates the a comprehensive Severe frequency, severity, and geographical Thunderstorm Model for the United States... The damage distribution of potential losses from functions are based on the straight-line winds, hail, and tornadoes. scientific relationship between building damage and wind The model incorporates the latest speed/hail impact energy. The scientific research into the highly model includes both the vertical fall speed [of hail] as well as the localized effects of these complex horizontal component of wind perils as well as independent research, speed to calculate impact energy. This is especially useful when post-disaster surveys, and more than estimating the amount of damage USD 40 billion in claims data. While to building exteriors such as siding and windows. severe thunderstorm is a relatively high- - Timothy Marshall, PE frequency peril, aggregate losses can Haag Engineering result in extreme volatility in financial results, making it crucial for companies to have a robust and highly granular An Innovative Way to Model Storm Occurrence The AIR U.S. severe thunderstorm model utilizes a large view of the risk. -
The Use of Computer Modeling in Estimating and Managing Future Catastrophe Losses
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Vol. 27 No. 2 (April 2002) 181±195 The Use of Computer Modeling in Estimating and Managing Future Catastrophe Losses by Karen M. Clarkà Overview Over the past two decades, the use of computer modeling to estimate future losses from natural catastrophes has gone from being virtually unheard of to being the standard global risk assessment technology. This is primarily the result of the unprecedented and unexpected losses sustained by insurance and reinsurance companies from actual catastrophe events, most notably the series of winter storms that struck Europe in 1990, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. By the mid-1990s it was apparent to all that the catastrophe loss potential was far greater than had previously been thought possible, even though some computer models available much earlier had been providing loss estimates well in excess of the losses sustained from Andrew and Northridge. However, these larger loss scenarios were not taken seriously by most in the industry without the actual occurrence of a major loss-producing event. Today, catastrophe modeling is used extensively for pricing, risk selection and underwriting, loss mitigation activities, reinsurance decision-making and overall portfolio management. This paper presents a history of catastrophe modeling technology and an explanation of how catastrophe models work. It also reviews recent advances in catastrophe modeling and concludes with a discussion of how insurers and reinsurers can derive maximum value from -
Intra‐Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress
See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336155330 Intra-Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress: Implications for Populations at the Trailing Range Edge Article in Journal of Phycology · September 2019 DOI: 10.1111/jpy.12927 CITATIONS READS 5 210 3 authors: Hannah F. R. Hereward Nathan G King Cardiff University Bangor University 5 PUBLICATIONS 23 CITATIONS 15 PUBLICATIONS 179 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Dan A Smale Marine Biological Association of the UK 123 PUBLICATIONS 7,729 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Examining the ecological consequences of climatedriven shifts in the structure of NE Atlantic kelp forests View project All content following this page was uploaded by Nathan G King on 06 January 2020. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. J. Phycol. *, ***–*** (2019) © 2019 Phycological Society of America DOI: 10.1111/jpy.12927 INTRA-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN RESPONSES OF A CANOPY FORMING KELP TO CUMULATIVE LOW TIDE HEAT STRESS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POPULATIONS AT THE TRAILING RANGE EDGE1 Hannah F. R. Hereward Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK Nathan G. King School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge LL59 5AB, UK and Dan A. Smale2 Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK Anthropogenic climate change is driving the Key index words: climate change; Kelp forests; Ocean redistribution of species at a global scale. -
Climate Change and Insurance: an Agenda for Action in the United States
Climate Change and Insurance: An Agenda for Action in the United States A publication of Allianz Group and WWF, October 2006 FOREWORD Climate change poses significant risks throughout the United States, particularly to coastal, flood-prone and fire-prone areas . Allianz and World Wildlife Fund (WWF) are working together to understand and better manage the true risks of global warming. Without examining how global warming could intensify risk it is impractical for Allianz, WWF and our peers to carry out long term planning to protect assets. The insurance industry has a two-fold responsibility. On the one hand, it needs to prepare itself for the negative effects that climate change may have on its business and on its customers. On the other hand, it can significantly help mitigate the eco- nomic risks and enter the low-carbon economy by providing appropriate products and services. Allianz Group and WWF have joined forces to produce a report that will advance the debate in the insurance industry, and propose solutions. The report identifies risks for the sector, emerging physical impacts that will likely be amplified with climate change, and develops actions that demonstrate how insurance providers, such as Allianz Group, can respond to these risks in a meaningful and responsible manner. Implementing these actions will mean big steps forward, developing sound practices business for a living planet. WWF and Allianz Group will work together to implement the actions of this report and to take responsible steps to help solve this global problem. Allianz and WWF strongly believe that companies that are ready to seize these new opportunities will ultimately be able to reap benefits for society and for their shareholders. -
Planting 2.0 Time Friday Afternoon
Search for The Westfield News Westfield350.comTheThe Westfield WestfieldNews News Serving Westfield, Southwick, and surrounding Hilltowns “TIME IS THE ONLY WEATHER CRITIC WITHOUT TONIGHT AMBITION.” Partly Cloudy. JOHN STEINBECK Low of 55. www.thewestfieldnews.com VOL. 86 NO. 151 TUESDAY, JUNE 27, 2017 75 cents $1.00 SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2020 VOL. 89 NO. 178 High-speed New Westfield internet could be coming COVID to Southwick By HOPE E. TREMBLAY cases drop Editor By PETER CURRIER SOUTHWICK – The High- Staff Writer Speed Internet Subcommittee WESTFIELD- The rate of coronavirus spread in reported its findings July 21 to the Westfield continues to slow down after a couple of weeks Southwick Select Board. of slightly elevated growth. The group formed in 2019 to The city recorded just five new cases of COVID-19 in research the town’s options regard- the past week, bringing the total number of confirmed ing internet service after being cases to 482 as of Friday afternoon. This is the lowest approached by Whip City Fiber, weekly number of new cases in more than a month in part of Westfield Gas & Electric, Westfield. Health Director Joseph Rouse said that there are on bringing the service to a new eight active cases in the city. development on College Highway. Fifty-five Westfield residents have died due to COVID- Select Board Chairman Douglas 19 since the beginning of the pandemic. Moglin, who served on the sub- The Town of Southwick had not released its weekly committee, said right now the only report on the number of new COVID-19 cases as of press real choice is Comcast/Xfinity. -
RISK MODELING for HAZARDS and DISASTERS This Page Intentionally Left Blank RISK MODELING for HAZARDS and DISASTERS
RISK MODELING FOR HAZARDS AND DISASTERS This page intentionally left blank RISK MODELING FOR HAZARDS AND DISASTERS Edited by GERO MICHEL Chaucer Syndicates, Denmark Elsevier Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom 50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions. This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein). Notices Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary. Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility. To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein. -
The Effect of Forced Change and Unforced Variability in Heat Waves, Temperature Extremes, and Associated Population Risk in a CO2-Warmed World
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11889–11904, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world Jangho Lee, Jeffrey C. Mast, and Andrew E. Dessler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, USA Correspondence: Andrew Dessler ([email protected]) Received: 4 February 2021 – Discussion started: 22 February 2021 Revised: 30 June 2021 – Accepted: 9 July 2021 – Published: 10 August 2021 Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warm- – The increases in heat wave indices are significant between ing on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6 h output 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of warming, and the risk of facing extreme heat from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensem- events is higher in low GDP regions. −1 ble driven by forcing from a 1 % yr CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional ex- posure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these 1 Introduction variations are mostly associated with El Niño–Southern Os- cillation (ENSO) variability. However, while the unforced The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to keep variability in the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes the increase in global temperature well below 2 ◦C above regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases signifi- preindustrial levels, while pursuing efforts and limiting the cantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population warming to 1.5 ◦C. -
Climate Risk and Response: Physical Hazards and Socioeconomic Impacts: Executive Summary
Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic and impacts hazards Physical response: and risk Climate Executive summary Climate risk and response Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts January 2020 McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey innovation, and urbanization. Recent partners and industry and management Global Institute (MGI) has sought to reports have assessed the digital experts. The MGI Council is made develop a deeper understanding of the economy, the impact of AI and automation up of leaders from McKinsey offices evolving global economy. As the business on employment, income inequality, around the world and the firm’s sector and economics research arm of McKinsey the productivity puzzle, the economic practices and includes Michael Birshan, & Company, MGI aims to provide leaders benefits of tackling gender inequality, Andrés Cadena, Sandrine Devillard, in the commercial, public, and social a new era of global competition, André Dua, Kweilin Ellingrud, sectors with the facts and insights Chinese innovation, and digital and Tarek Elmasry, Katy George, Rajat Gupta, on which to base management and financial globalization. Eric Hazan, Acha Leke, Gary Pinkus, policy decisions. Oliver Tonby, and Eckart Windhagen. MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company The Council members help shape the MGI research combines the disciplines of senior partners: James Manyika, research agenda, lead high-impact economics and management, employing Sven Smit, and Jonathan Woetzel. research and share the findings with the analytical tools of economics with James and Sven also serve as co-chairs decision makers around the world. In the insights of business leaders. Our of MGI. Michael Chui, Susan Lund, addition, leading economists, including “micro-to-macro” methodology examines Anu Madgavkar, Jan Mischke, Nobel laureates, advise MGI research. -
Human Contribution to the Record-Breaking June and July 2019 Heatwaves in Western Europe
Environ. Res. Lett. 15 (2020) 094077 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d4 Environmental Research Letters LETTER Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 OPEN ACCESS heatwaves in Western Europe RECEIVED 31 December 2019 Robert Vautard1, Maarten van Aalst2, Olivier Boucher1, Agathe Drouin3, Karsten Haustein4, 5 6 4 3 3 REVISED Frank Kreienkamp , Geert Jan van Oldenborgh , Friederike E L Otto , Aur´elien Ribes , Yoann Robin , 18 June 2020 Michel Schneider3, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux3, Peter Stott7, Sonia I Seneviratne8, Martha M Vogel8 ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION 9 8 July 2020 and Michael Wehner 1 PUBLISHED Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France 28 August 2020 2 University of Twente and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Netherlands 3 M´et´eo-France, Toulouse, France 4 Original content from Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 5 this work may be used Deutsche Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany under the terms of the 6 KNMI, de Bilt, The Netherlands Creative Commons 7 U.K. Met. Office, Exeter, United Kingdom Attribution 4.0 licence. 8 ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Any further distribution 9 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States of America of this work must maintain attribution to E-mail: [email protected] the author(s) and the title of the work, journal Keywords: climate change, heat wave, extreme event attribution citation and DOI. Supplementary material for this article is available online Abstract Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. -
'Lothar Successor' - the Forgotten Storm After Christmas 1999
Phenomenological examination of 'Lothar Successor' - the forgotten storm after Christmas 1999 by F. Welzenbach Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics Innsbruck 04 April 2010, preliminary version Abstract The majority of scientific research to the notorious storms in December 1999 focuses on 'Lothar' and 'Martin' causing most of the damage to properties and fatalities in Central Europe. Few studies have been performed in the framework of the passage of storm 'Lothar Successor' (introduced in a case study of the Manual of synoptic satellite meteorology featured by ZAMG) between these two events being responsible for some gusts in exceed of 90 km/h between Northern France, Belgium and Southwestern Germany. The present study addresses to the phenomenology and possible explanations of that secondary cyclogenesis just after the passage of 'Lothar' and well before the arrival of 'Martin'. Facing different theories and findings in several papers it will be shown that the storm possessed a closed circulation and a fully developed frontal system. That key finding is especially in contrast to the analysis of the German Weather Service which suggested that solely a 'trough line' crossed Germany. The point whether a warm or a cold conveyor belt cyclogenesis produced the storm could not be entirely clarified. Finally, reasons are given for which 'Lothar Successor' had not become a 'second Lothar', amongst others the unfavourable position between two jetstreams with lack of sufficient cyclonic vorticity advection. 1. Introduction The motivation for reviewing the events from late December 1999 is mainly due to personal experience between the passage of 'Lothar' (26.12.1999) and 'Martin' (28.12.1999) in Lower Franconia close to Miltenberg (at the river Main between Frankfurt and Wuerzburg). -
Oasis Platform for Catastrophe and Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation LAB INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS
Oasis Platform for Catastrophe and Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation LAB INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS June 27, 2016 The Lab is a global initiative that supports the identification and piloting of cutting edge climate finance instruments. It aims to drive billions of dollars of private investment into climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. AUTHORS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors of this brief are Chiara Trabacchi and Bella Tonkonogy. The authors would like to thank Dickie Whitaker, Tracy Irvine and Ralf Toumi, the proponents of the Oasis Platform, for their valued contributions and continuous support. The authors would also like to acknowledge the valued contribution of the following experts, in alphabetical order: Angelina Avgeropoulou (DECC); Simon Blaquiere (AxA); Ian Branagan (RenaissanceRe); Katie Carlton (DECC); Suzanne Carter (CDKN); Peter D’Souza (DFID); Kate Dowen (DECC); Julia Ellis (DECC); Stefan Eppert (KatRisk); Jennifer Frankel- Reed (USAID); Luzi Hitz (PERILS), Michael Hoelter (Deutsche Bank); Ari Hutala (CDKN); Robin Lang (RenaissanceRe); Wei-jen Leow (World Bank); Berit Lindholdt-Lauridsen (IFC); Karsten Loeffler (Allianz); Olivier Mahul (GFDRR); Trevor Maynard (Lloyd’s); Shadreck Mapfumo (IFC); Rosalie Mardsen (GCF); Leonardo Martinez (US Treasury); Jonathan Meagher (Allianz); Stephen Morel (OPIC); Utako Hanna Saoshiro (IFC); David C. Simmons (Willis); John Schneider (GEM); Alanna Simpson (GFDRR); Anselm Smolka (GEM); Claire Souch (SCOR); Raphael Stein (BNDES); Markus Stowasser (Allianz); James Thornton (JBA); Verena Treber (Allianz); Pan Tso-Chien (Nanyang Technological University); Jane Toothill (JBA); Daniele S. Torriani (IFC); Mark Weatherhead (Guy Carpenter);Emily White (GFDRR); and Vikram Widge (IFC). The authors would also like to thank Barbara Buchner, Ben Broche, Padraig Oliver, Elysha Rom-Povolo, and Jane Wilkinson for their advice, support and internal review, and Amira Hankin for graphic design. -
Modeling Natural Catastrophes: a Primer
Modeling Natural Catastrophes: A Primer Steve E Smith Carvill/ReAdvisory Independence Integrity Service Innovation Agenda X Who are Carvill and ReAdvisory? X Hurricane Modeling X Modeling Events – Seasonal forecasting – Real-time forecasting X Insured Loss Modeling Independence Integrity Service Innovation 2 X Who are Carvill & ReAdvisory? X Hurricane Modeling X Modeling Events X Insurance Loss Modeling X Conclusions Independence Integrity Service Innovation 3 Carvill & ReAdvisory Carvill X One of the largest privately held international reinsurance intermediaries X 30 years of success in a constantly evolving market X Concentrated focus on treaty reinsurance, captives / mutuals, and specialist risk groups X Long standing commitment to excellence in technical expertise and service standards X A track-record of market leading product development – The first casualty cat bond – Reinsurance recoverable credit protection – Exchange-traded hurricane futures and options ReAdvisory X A service of Carvill X Actuarial and cat modeling consultancy practice. Independence Integrity Service Innovation 4 X Who are Carvill and ReAdvisory? X Hurricane Modeling X Modeling Events X Insurance Loss Modeling X Conclusions Independence Integrity Service Innovation 5 Hurricane Modeling Hurricane modeling breaks down in two major ways X Forecasting actual events X Modeling insured losses The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. John von Neumann Independence Integrity Service Innovation 6 Hurricane Terminology Modeling X Skill – A statistical evaluation of the accuracy of forecasts. The evaluation is typically made with respect to a reference model X Statistical Model – A model which is derived from a statistical analysis of the physical variables. – This class of model typically describes seasonal forecasts and most cat models X Dynamical Model – A model which is based on the actual physics of the process.