Economists As Worldly Philosophers
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The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series
AP PHOTO/FILE AP This January 1935 photo shows a mural depicting phases of the New Deal The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin March 2011 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG The Origins and Evolution of Progressive Economics Part Seven of the Progressive Tradition Series Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin March 2011 With the rise of the contemporary progressive movement and the election of President Barack Obama in 2008, there is extensive public interest in better understanding the ori- gins, values, and intellectual strands of progressivism. Who were the original progressive thinkers and activists? Where did their ideas come from and what motivated their beliefs and actions? What were their main goals for society and government? How did their ideas influence or diverge from alternative social doctrines? How do their ideas and beliefs relate to contemporary progressivism? The Progressive Tradition Series from the Center for American Progress traces the devel- opment of progressivism as a social and political tradition stretching from the late 19th century reform efforts to the current day. The series is designed primarily for educational and leadership development purposes to help students and activists better understand the foundations of progressive thought and its relationship to politics and social movements. Although the Progressive Studies Program has its own views about the relative merit of the various values, ideas, and actors discussed within the progressive tradition, the essays included in the series are descriptive and analytical rather than opinion based. We envision the essays serving as primers for exploring progressivism and liberalism in more depth through core texts—and in contrast to the conservative intellectual tradition and canon. -
Neuroeconomics: the Neurobiology of Decision-Making
Neuroeconomics: The Neurobiology of Decision-Making Ifat Levy Section of Comparative Medicine Department of Neurobiology Interdepartmental Neuroscience Program Yale School of Medicine Harnessing eHealth and Behavioral Economics for HIV Prevention and Treatment April 2012 Overview • Introduction to neuroeconomics • Decision under uncertainty – Brain and behavior – Adolescent behavior – Medical decisions Overview • Introduction to neuroeconomics • Decision under uncertainty – Brain and behavior – Adolescent behavior – Medical decisions Neuroeconomics NeuroscienceNeuronal MentalPsychology states “asEconomics if” models architecture Abstraction Neuroeconomics Behavioral Economics Neuroscience Psychology Economics Abstraction Neuroscience functional MRI VISUAL STIMULUS functional MRI: Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent signals Neural Changes in oxygen Change in activity consumption, blood flow concentration of and blood volume deoxyhemoglobin Change in Signal from each measured point in space at signal each point in time t = 1 t = 2 t = 3 t = 4 t = 5 t = 6 dorsal anterior posterior lateral ventral dorsal anterior medial posterior ventral Anterior The cortex Cingulate Cortex (ACC) Medial Prefrontal Cortex (MPFC) Posterior Cingulate Cortex (PCC) Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex (vMPFC) Orbitofrontal Cortex (OFC) Sub-cortical structures fMRI signal • Spatial resolution: ~3x3x3mm3 Low • Temporal resolution: ~1-2s Low • Number of voxels: ~150,000 High • Typical signal change: 0.2%-2% Low • Typical noise: more than the signal… High But… • Intact human -
Volatility As Link Between Risk and Memory in Economics, Econometrics and Neuroeconomics: an Application for the Bolivian Inflation Rate 1938 - 2012
Volatility as link between risk and memory in Economics, Econometrics and Neuroeconomics: an application for the Bolivian Inflation Rate 1938 - 2012 María Edith Chacón B. [email protected] Teacher and researcher CIDES – UMSA. La Paz, Bolivia. Ernesto Sheriff B. [email protected] Teacher and researcher CIDES – UMSA and UPB. La Paz, Bolivia. Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Other Neuroeconomics Econometrics: Time Series ABSTRACT This paper provides an indicator that measures memory as a stock. Memory affects economic decisions thus the memory indicator is useful to help in applied work, it was built according to the state of the art in Psychology and Neuroeconomics and it is presented as a time series; it is a recursive one and it is represented by an accumulated measure of the volatility. Many theories of risk have used volatility indicators to represent risk in the applied work. Risk valuation is associated to volatility and it is very sensitive to periods in which it is measured; it is very sensitive too to the type of data associated to volatility. In this paper we found that the memory affects risk valuations and the link between them is a special kind of volatility i.e. accumulated volatility with an endogenous initialization period and compatible with many Psychological hypotheses. The developed indicator is compatible with the econometrics of stationary series, integrated series and fractional integrated series. These contributions help to improve the study of hysteresis in applied economics, to develop more consistent links between memory and risk in Neuroeconomics and, to obtain more confident time series models in econometrics using the new indicator. -
The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond
Working Paper No. 822 The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond by Riccardo Bellofiore* University of Bergamo December 2014 * [email protected] This paper was prepared for the project “Financing Innovation: An Application of a Keynes-Schumpeter- Minsky Synthesis,” funded in part by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET grant no. IN012-00036, administered through the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-principal investigators: Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) and L. Randall Wray (Levy Institute). The author thanks INET and the Levy Institute for support of this research. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2014 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X Abstract An understanding of, and an intervention into, the present capitalist reality requires that we put together the insights of Karl Marx on labor, as well as those of Hyman Minsky on finance. The best way to do this is within a longer-term perspective, looking at the different stages through which capitalism evolves. -
A REVIEW of IRANIAN STAGFLATION by Hossein Salehi
THE HISTORY OF STAGFLATION: A REVIEW OF IRANIAN STAGFLATION by Hossein Salehi, M. Sc. A Thesis In ECONOMICS Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS Approved Dr. Masha Rahnama Chair of Committee Dr. Eleanor Von Ende Dr. Mark Sheridan Dean of the Graduate School August, 2015 Copyright 2015, Hossein Salehi Texas Tech University, Hossein Salehi, August, 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I wish to thank my wonderful parents who have been endlessly supporting me along the way, and I would like to thank my sister for her unlimited love. Next, I would like to show my deep gratitude to Dr. Masha Rahnama, my thesis advisor, for his patient guidance and encouragement throughout my thesis and graduate studies at Texas Tech University. My sincerest appreciation goes to, Dr. Von Ende, for joining my thesis committee, providing valuable assistance, and devoting her invaluable time to complete this thesis. I also would like to thank Brian Spreng for his positive input and guidance. You all have my sincerest respect. ii Texas Tech University, Hossein Salehi, August, 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ v LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... -
2 Cognitive Load Increases Risk Aversion 5 2.1 Introduction
Essays in Experimental and Neuroeconomics DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Dr. rer. pol. im Fach Volkswirtschaftslehre eingereicht an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin von Diplom-Volkswirt Holger Gerhardt geboren am 17. Januar 1978 in Arnsberg Präsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin: Prof. Dr. Jan-Hendrik Olbertz Dekan der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät: Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph. D. Gutachter: 1. Prof. Lutz Weinke, Ph. D. 2. Prof. Dr. Hauke R. Heekeren eingereicht am: 9. Mai 2011 Tag des Kolloquiums: 20. Juni 2011 Contents 1 Introduction 1 Bibliography . 3 2 Cognitive load increases risk aversion 5 2.1 Introduction . 5 2.2 Related literature . 7 2.2.1 Introductory remarks . 7 2.2.2 Overview of dual-system and “dual-self” approaches . 7 2.2.3 Subjective expected-utility theory as a unitary-process model of decision making under risk . 10 2.2.4 Dual-process approaches to decision making under risk . 11 2.2.5 Empirical evidence on dual processes in decision making under risk . 12 2.3 Experimental design . 17 2.3.1 Introduction: Advantages of our design over alternative designs . 17 2.3.2 Trial setup . 18 2.3.3 Additional measures of individual differences . 24 2.4 Results . 24 2.4.1 Introductory remarks . 24 2.4.2 Were the tasks adequate? . 25 2.4.3 How did subjects allocate attention to the two simultane- ous tasks? . 25 2.4.4 Preference reversal?—How often did subjects choose the riskier lottery? . 26 2.4.5 Structural regressions: the influence of additional cognitive load on subjects’ degree of relative risk aversion . -
The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework
Munich Personal RePEc Archive The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework. Heise, Arne University of Hamburg 2014 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80024/ MPRA Paper No. 80024, posted 05 Jul 2017 05:42 UTC The Future of Economics in a Lakatos-Bourdieu framework Prof. Arne Heise University of Hamburg Dep. of Socioeconomics VMP 9 D-20146 Hamburg [email protected] Abstract The global financial crisis has clearly been a matter of great consternation for the busi- ness-as-usual faction of mainstream economics. Will the World Financial Crisis turn out to be that ‘experimentum crucis’ which triggered a scientific revolution? In this paper, we seek to assess the likelihood of a paradigm shift towards heterodox approaches and a more pluralist setting in economics emerging from the academic establishment in the U.S. – that is, from the dominant center of knowledge production in the economic disci- pline. This will be done by building the analysis on a combined Lakatosian framework of ‘battle of research programmes’ and a Bourdieuian framework of ‘power struggle’ within the academic field and highlighting the likelihood of two main proponents of the mainstream elite to become the promulgator of change? Keywords: Paradigm, heterodox economics, scientific revolution JEL codes: A 11, E 11, E 12 1 1. The Keynesian Revolution and Pragmatic Pluralism – A Fruitful Competition Between Theories or a Crisis in Economics? John Maynard Keynes concludes ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money’ (1936: 383-84) with the following, now-famous words: „At the present moment people are unusually expectant of a more funda- mental diagnosis; more particularly ready to receive it; eager to try it out, if it should be even possible. -
John Von Neumann Oskar Morgenstern
Neuroeconomics: From The Failures of Expected Utility to the Neurobiology of Choice Paul Glimcher PhD Julius Silver Professor of Neural Science, Economics and Psychology Director, Institute of the Study of Decision Making New York University Blaise Pascal Genius: Expected Value Theory Expected Probability x Value = Value #1 0.5 100 50 #2 1.0 45 45 Pascal's Wager If God Exists If God Doesn't Exist (Prob 3 Value) + (Prob 3 Value) = Exp. Value Believe in God >0 3 `$++ 0 3 0 = ` Do not Believe >0 3 2` ++ $0 3 0 = 2` in God Problem: The Beggar’s Dilemma Daniel Bernoulli Genius: Expected Utility Theory Beggar’s Dilemma 4.3 3.8 Beggar’s Utility (utils) Beggar’s 0 7000 20,000 Rich Man’s Choice Beggar’s Wealth (florins) 6.0056 6.0 5.9969 Rich Man’s Utility (utils) Rich Man’s Problem: 0 losses wins Value ($) Bentham, Pareto, Samuelson 993,000 1,013,000 1,000,000 Jeremy Bentham Vilfredo Pareto Paul Samuelson The Calculus of Utility The Intrinsic Arbitrariness of Utility Ordinal Objective Utility John von Neumann Oskar Morgenstern Genius: Modern Expected Utility Theory 0 < a <1 a $ s = Expected 35til u Utility weight s.w. = prob Subjective 0 Utility (utils) 0 Probability Dollars ($) Critcal Advantages: • Precise • Compact • Normative (people Problem: make sense) Maurice Allais Maurice Allais People Do Not Obey EU all the time 0 < a <1 a $ s = Expected 35til u Utility weight s.w. = prob Subjective 0 Utility (utils) 0 XProbability Dollars ($) Critcal Questons: • How to Predict People? • Are People Dumb? • Why? Amos Tversky Danny Kahneman Prospect Theory Critcal Advantages: • Predictive Critcal Disadvantages: • Bulky • No Why Behavioral Traditional Social-Natural Science Boundary Economics vs. -
Exit Keynes the Friedmanite, Enter Minsky's Keynes
One –Pager | N o.42 Levy Economics Institute Exit Keynes the Friedmanite, of Bard College Enter Minsky’s Keynes September 12, 2013 . Brad DeLong recently reposted his 1996 review of John Maynard Keynes’s DeLong raises what, for me, is a version of the same question posed A Tract on Monetary Reform (1924) . DeLong makes the case, quite com - in an April 2011 post : “Why Aren’t Economics Departments Using their pellingly, that Keynes, in this book, provides us with the best monetarist Macroeconomic Slots to Hire People Who Know Walter Bagehot?” More monograph ever written. DeLong leads, however, with a sentence that, recently, a post by Paul Krugman makes the same point: “What really in 2013, he might want to alter: “This may well be Keynes’s best book.” impresses you if you study macro, in particular, is the continuity, so that It was the complete failure of the monetarist framework that led Bagehot and Wicksell and Irving Fisher and, of course, Keynes remain Keynes to deliver his General Theory in 1936. Quite sadly, in 1996 the quite relevant today.” Washington Consensus had effectively embraced the minimalist view of Bagehot, Fisher, Keynes—and, I would add, Minsky—wrote richly of monetary policy responsibilities articulated by Keynes in 1924. And in an economic world strongly at odds with the neoclassical fiction of so doing they set the world up for a 1929-style financial crisis in 2008–9. finance as a veil. These thinkers would arguably have seen the Great As DeLong puts it, Moderation very differently from DeLong à la 1996, with financial mar - ket dynamics, not wage and price swings, driving increasing fluctuations The belief that monetary instability—inflation and deflation— in the macroeconomy, ultimately ending in the brutal global Great is the principal, or at least a principal, cause of other economic Recession of 2008–9. -
Neuroeconomics
Handbook of Experimental Economics Editors: John Kagel and Alvin Roth Neuroeconomics Colin Camerer1 (California Institute of Technology), Jonathan Cohen2 (Princeton University), Ernst Fehr3 (University of Zurich), Paul Glimcher4 (New York University), David Laibson5 (Harvard University) 1Division HSS, Caltech, [email protected]; 2Princeton Neuroscience Institute, Princeton University, [email protected]; 3University of Zurich, Department of Economics, [email protected]; 4Center for Neural Science, New York University, [email protected]; 5Department of Economics, Harvard University, [email protected]. We gratefully acknowledge research assistance from Colin Gray and Gwen Reynolds and key guidance from John Kagel, Alvin Roth, and an anonymous referee. We also acknowledge financial support from the Moore Foundation (Camerer), the National Science Foundation (Camerer), and the National Institute of Aging (Cohen; Glimcher, R01AG033406; Laibson, P01AG005842), the Swiss National Science Foundation (Fehr, CRSII3_141965/1) and the European Research Council (Fehr, 295642). Hyperlink Page Introduction Chapter 1: Neurobiological Foundations Chapter 2: Functional MRI Chapter 3: Risky Choice Chapter 4: Intertemporal choice and self-regulation Chapter 5: The neural circuitry of social preferences Chapter 6: Strategic thinking References Introduction “One may wonder whether Adam Smith, were he working today, would not be a neuroeconomi[st]” Aldo Rustichini (2005). Neuroeconomics is the study of the biological microfoundations of economic -
1 Neuroeconomics of Asset-Price Bubbles
Neuroeconomics of Asset-Price Bubbles: Toward the Prediction and Prevention of Major Bubbles John L. Haracz* Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley and Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University [email protected] and Daniel J. Acland Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley [email protected] Goldman School of Public Policy Working Paper January 16, 2015 Abstract Asset-price bubbles challenge the explanatory and predictive power of standard economic theory, suggesting that neuroeconomic measures should be explored as potential tools for improving the predictive power of standard theory. We begin this exploration by reviewing results from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies of lab asset-price bubbles and herding behavior (i.e., following others' decisions). These results are consistent with a neuroeconomics-based hypothesis of asset-price bubbles. In this view, decision making during bubble or non-bubble periods of financial- market activity is driven by, respectively, evolutionarily ancient or new neurocircuitry. Neuroimaging studies that test this or other neuroeconomics-based hypotheses of asset-price bubbles may yield a bubble-related biomarker (e.g., low trade-related lateral neocortical activity associated with traders’ herding-based decisions). Wearable functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) technology could determine the prevalence of such a biomarker among financial-market participants, thereby enabling the real-time detection of an emerging bubble. We describe mechanisms by which this early-warning signal could be exploited in self-regulatory or government-administered policies for financial-system stabilization. In summary, neuroimaging-based financial-system regulation may be useful for distinguishing bubbles from non-bubble periods and preventing major asset-price bubbles. -
Towards an Externalist Neuroeconomics: Dual Selves, Signs, and Choice
Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics © 2012 American Psychological Association 2012, Vol. 5, No. 1, 38–61 1937-321X/12/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/a0026882 Towards an Externalist Neuroeconomics: Dual Selves, Signs, and Choice Carsten Herrmann-Pillath Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Recently, reductionist models of choice have been proposed which directly reduce a modified version of economic utility theory to neuroscience. I propose an alternative conceptual framework that adopts the position of externalism, which I further narrow down to a distributed cognition framework, and eventually to a biosemiotic model of human choice. I relate this to existing modular theories on the brain, which I generalize into a dual selves model. In this model, the internal information asymmetries and deficiencies of the brain/body system drive the reliance of choices on external cognitive mechanisms as manifested in sign systems. I analyze this interaction and apply the combined biosemiotics/dual selves model to an important set of falsifiers of an integrated reductionist model of neuroeconomics, that is, addiction and other consump- tion disorders. Keywords: foundations of neuroeconomics, semiotics, dual selves, distributed cognition, con- sumption disorders I. Externalism Versus Internalism in conscious and automatic processes, and Neuroeconomics would thus result in models which differ from the standard economic model (Camerer, 2007; One of the fundamental issues in current Camerer, Loewenstein, & Prelec, 2005). The neuroeconomic research is the question of drawback of these views is that they still lack whether the analysis of the brain should fol- a coherent and consistent theoretical frame- low the standard economic model or whether work comparable to the standard economic the introduction of an alternative framework approach in terms of its simplicity, consis- is needed.