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MPF Final Paper Marcellus POLICY ANALYSIS Fall 2020 - Marcellus Policy Analysis No. 9 Restraint Solutions for a Failing Venezuela by Lucy Santora EXECUTIVE SUMMARY he United States must support its ally Colombia in aiding Venezuela to protect human life and bring stability to the region. The goal is to assist in the resurrec- tion of the Venezuelan rule of law and civil society. The first steps will include reducing economic sanctions that strangle average citizens, supplying aid to ref- ugees Twho have fled to Colombia, granting temporary protected status forVenezuelans seeking safety in the United States, and non-military assistance to opposition forces. Suppose this fails, or the situation in Venezuela rapidly deteriorates. In that case, the United States will lobby the United Nations to enact Responsibility to Protect that includes a clear strategy for rebuilding the country after violence has ceased. This policy is an incremental process that will require tenaci- ty and restraint. 1 Crisis in Venezuela to assist in drug-trafficking and money laundering.2 The United States is under pressure to make Some officials have even given such groups the use of progress in confronting the dire human-made ca- military assets, all of which is a considerable threat to 3 tastrophe in Venezuela. In 2019, the Secretary-Gen- the United States’ national security. Finally, Vene- eral of the Organization of American States (OAS), zuela has historically been a reliable exporter of oil Luis Almagro, stated that the Venezuelan case fit the to the United States. American oil dependency has criteria of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine under decreased with a ramp-up of domestic production and the pillar of crimes against humanity.1 The applica- actively seeking alternative resources, but oil is still tion of R2P for Venezuela has been discussed. Yet, essential. Unfettered access to Venezuelan oil, which there is a widespread controversy that has prevented it makes up 18.2% of global oil reserves, is vital to 4 from being implemented so far. Many countries have keep the US economy running smoothly. The United resorted to sanctions and the dissolution of specific States has been the primary destination for Venezu- 5 diplomatic ties to confront the Maduro regime. The elan crude oil, about 41% of total exports. In 2018, traditional economic sanctions, political isolation, Venezuela exported about 500,000 barrels of crude a 6 and Responsibility to Protect (R2P) employed by the day to the US. international system to deal with humanitarian crises America must assess Venezuela’s alternative have consistently fallen short. paths, such as ending sanctions, aid for refugees, tem- While the United States cannot resolve every porary protected status and other immigration assis- foreign conflict, the Venezuela case requires action tance, and coalition building for the new government. because of its impact on American interests such The United States must swiftly implement a new plan as regional stability, national security, and lucrative to alleviate the chaos in the region. The case of Vene- trade. Venezuela is only 1,300 miles from Flori- zuela under President Maduro illustrates how restraint da, making it a close neighbor. The United States’ informed humanitarian intervention could foster more strongest ally in South America is Colombia, which positive outcomes than traditional uses of economic, borders Venezuela. Both Colombia and the United political, and military force. States have been affected by refugees flowing from Proactive Opportunities and the flailing country, which only further destabilizes History the region. Furthermore, at least fourteen Venezuelan The decline of Venezuela begins with the rise government officials are actively partnered with inter- of Hugo Chavez and his ideology colloquially known national crime organizations and use state resources as chavismo. To put it briefly, Chavez’s misman- 2 agement of his nation’s oil wealth and constitution- is) essential for the opposition. Maduro’s regime al changes that pushed the government away from controlled the country’s newspapers and silenced democracy left the country ripe for even more intense any dissenting opinions. The opposition would have corruption when Maduro took over after Chavez’s to employ non-traditional media such as social net- death in 2013. Many Venezuelans cite the special working sites and pamphlets to disseminate Maduro’s election to replace Chavez, which Maduro won by a dangerous propaganda. razor-thin margin, as the moment where a different Instead, the US imposed strict economic sanc- outcome could have wholly altered their nation’s path. tions, which choked the Venezuelan economy. Some While we cannot assume counterfactuals, the restrictions like the Venezuela Defense of Human United States could have leaned on diplomatic rela- Rights and Civil Society Act of 2014 (PL 113-278; tionships to play a consulting role. This engagement 50 USC 1701 note) were explicitly directed at parties would be starkly different from the United States’ responsible for violence and human rights abuses.7 tumultuous interventions in Latin America in the 20th Many others were broadly aimed at terrorism or drug century. Rather than backing a coup or rebel group, trafficking and sectoral sanctions against oil.8 Nine- United States foreign service officers could have been ty-five percent of the country’s export revenue is from used as the alternative ‘boots on the ground’ to give the state-owned oil company.9 Once the sanctions cut diplomatic tools and resources to opposition leaders. of the Maduro government from most foreign curren- However, this relationship would have opened the cy access, it didn’t have the hard currency to pay for possibility that the Maduro administration could label essential goods like food and medicine. The econom- the opposition as puppets of foreign agents aiming ic downturn drove many Venezuelans into poverty, to discredit their movement. China and Russia have forcing some to flee to neighboring Colombia and accused the United States of starting color revolutions those who remained going on the ‘Maduro diet.’ Mal- elsewhere even without substantial evidence; it is nutrition and disdain for Maduro are high, but people logical to presume Venezuela would have a similar still attend his rallies or even vote for him, hoping to reaction. To prevent greater enmity, the US could be rewarded with food.10 The economy is in sham- strategically place CIA operatives (mostly outside bles, with inflation peaking at 1.8 million percent in Venezuela’s borders) to advise the opposition on 2018, with many Venezuelans struggling to survive.11 combatting Maduro’s attempts to manipulate public Extensive research has demonstrated that sanctions opinion. This strategy would be high-risk but getting are effective in coercing a change in behavior only a messaging apparatus off the ground was (and still 10 percent of the time.12 Some policymakers argue 3 that multilateral sanctions could be more effective sanctions, hoping to break Maduro’s grip on the and that the United States should have pressed its country eventually. Conventional knowledge reflects allies harder to sanction Venezuela. However, while that sanctions are meant to coerce a behavior change, multilateral trade sanctions have the potential for constrain certain economic activities, and signal tar- immense economic destruction, they are less effective gets about international norms violations. In practice, in producing the desired political result.13 Multilater- sanctions are potent in damaging an economy and al sanctions can undermine the country’s opposition making a country a global pariah, but they have little groups and even strengthen support for the ruling efficacy for changing behaviors. Furthermore, they regime.14 A separate study, a series of statistical tests, can cause humanitarian harm, making it a challenging demonstrated either no link or a negative correlation tool when R2P is the goal. For example: between multilateral sanctions and successful out- Cuba comes.15 Iraq under Saddam Hussein demonstrated The United States first placed an embargo on the failure of sanctions. The sanctions were a reaction Cuba in 1960. Sixty years later, we still do not have to Iraq’s 1990 occupation of Kuwait but did not lead normal relations with the island nation, and Castro’s to a peaceful withdrawal of troops or regime change.16 successors still hold power.18 Half a million children died, and Hussein remained North Korea in power.17 It should not be surprising that the impo- Since 2006, many nations have sanctioned sition of sanctions backfired in Venezuela and only North Korea in an attempt to pressure the country to created more significant humanitarian turmoil. denuclearize and stop human rights violations.19 To- Now the United States is faced with deciding day North Korea has 22 nuclear facilities and contin- on how to engage with Venezuela to help the Venezu- 20 elan people and avoid further atrocities. ues to make technological advances in weaponry. Belarus Reactive Measures In November of 2004, the United States Reduce Sanctions imposed sanctions on Belarus to respond to Presi- The international community has frozen out dent Lukashenko’s gross human rights abuses. Fast Maduro and his prominent cronies from accessing forward to August 2020, and Lukashenko wins 80% economic and political institutions, but this has not of the vote in a likely rigged election. Sanctions and diminished the regime’s power. President Trump and
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