Crisis Overview: Venezuela

CRISIS OVERVIEW: VENEZUELA

Venezuela represents the socialist experiment, a paradise of values South America. Leader of the ALBA-TCP block of nations, Venezuela long stood as the commander of the opposition to American imperialism in Latin America. Now, the nation is in crisis. Widespread electrical outages are commonplace. Oil prices continue to sink. Inﬂation has reached 1.35 million percent. Can you save the dream of the Bolivarian Revolution? Can you put away the Presidential imposter, Juan Guaido, once and for all? Or is this ﬁnally the end of Simón Bolívar’s dream? A vision of the future awaits. It’s up to Venezuela to lead South America out the grasps of America’s hands.

BOLIVARIAN CONFLICT OVERVIEW

Against the backdrop of the “single largest economic collapse outside of war in at least 45 years,” two men, Nicolàs Maduro and Juan Guadidò, are vying for the presidency of Venezuela. Maduro, who has served as president of Venezuela since 2013, was hand-selected by his nationally beloved yet controversial predecessor, Hugo Chàvez. Maduro won the 2018 Presidential elections in a landslide, although many have called these elections “a sham” and Maduro an illegitimate leader. In response, the National Assembly, largely controlled by the opposition party, invoked the constitution, declared the presidency vacant, and in January appointed Guadidò as interim President. Since then, Venezuela has seen near constant political turmoil, been embroiled in both peaceful and violent protests, and faced crippling economic sanctions from nations such as the United States. This political crisis has deepened the already critical humanitarian and economic crisis in Venezuela, leading to a decrease in the national GDP by 62% since 2013 and triggering a mass exodus of as many as 3.4 million people from the nation. The economic decline, humanitarian failings, political instability, and resulting immigration, of this national crisis have broadly reaching implications which entangle much of the world into the Bolivarian crisis.

DOMESTIC OVERVIEW

With Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, his handpicked successor Nicolàs Maduro took command after narrowly winning an election - however, from the very beginning the results were questioned by the opposition, immediately setting the stage for challenges to his mandate. The stability of the country had long rested on the money made from the oil ﬁelds, believed to be the largest in the world, which reside in the country. In the beginning, this cultivation of its vast natural resources helped to provide resources for broad social programs propagated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, the ruling party since Chávez took over in 1998 after the prior ruler had been impeached on corruption charges.

The stunning turn of events for what was once the richest country in South America began soon after Maduro took over at the helm. A massive decline in oil prices, unbalanced spending by the government, mixed with economic sanctions, particularly from one of its largest trading partners, the United States, created a potent cocktail for crisis. As the cracks began to widen, the unequipped bureaucracy was inept, responding poorly and resulting in widely inappropriate government initiatives and mismanagement. It culminated in the rise of opposition leader Juan Guadidò of the Political Will party, invoking a portion of the constitution in order to declare himself interim president in January 2019, under the guise that the election was rigged. Guaido has also called upon the military to turn against Maduro. Given Venezuela’s frail institutions, the country’s military represents one of the only real mechanisms of power. However, Maduro has taken strategic precautions in order to ensure that he remains in the military’s good graces. This has included continuing many policies enacted by his predecessors such as bloating its bureaucracy, buying oﬀ key ﬁgures, politicizing appointments, and fragmenting command. These strategies have made the military machine inept at organizing a coup such as that which was utilized in the initial rise of the Socialist party, although it has also become feckless in promoting national security. Even essential sectors of the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, have been handed over to the military, further intertwining Maduro’s regime and the military into the same body.

Venezuela’s deep-rooted political instability is heavily intertwined with the economic turmoil dating back to the 1970s, when its industries were largely nationalized and excessive regulations were placed on the labor market. Price and currency controls, subsidies, and a disregard for the national debt exacerbated issues presented by the price of oil collapsing, causing massive amounts of inflation that the country is still struggling with. In August 2019, inflation reach 10 million percent. The high inflation rates have left Venezuelans unable to afford basic goods, contributing to political dissent and mass immigration. The economic situation has been the main motivator of anti-Maduro sentiments and protests, as Maduro’s policies have contributed greatly to Venezuela’s economic downturn. In attempts to force Maduro to step down, the US and many other countries have placed billions in sanctions against Venezuela, freezing many of its foreign assets.

While the domestic political and economic realities within Venezuela continue to spiral, international pressures have not eased. While there have been some attempts to help support the failing state such as offers of food and medical supplies from the United States for instance, Maduro has deliberately closed off borders and severed international diplomatic lines in order to prevent foreign influence. On multiple occasions, Maduro has claimed much of the current turbulence is currently experiencing is the result of United States interference in the country, greatly escalating tensions between the two countries. Further facilitating this division was a recent announcement from the United States recognizing opposition leader Guaido as the functioning president of the country, thereby no longer recognizing Maduro as the leader of the South American state. Many other countries also recognize Guaido, including most of Europe, Australia, and the rest of South America, while countries like Russia and China continue to respect Maduro as the leader.

The division lines between who recognizes Maduro and who recognizes Guaido falls along familiar lines, especially in regards towards historical diplomatic relationships. In July of 2006, then President Chavez signed a new $3 billion dollar arms deal with Russia, which included provisions for the purchasing of new fighter jets and helicopters - this shifted the country off of its long standing arms dealings with the United States. This was just another nail in the proverbial coffin of U.S.-Venezuela relations which had flourished under Chavez’s predecessor. Today however, Venezuela has military deals with Russia and China, as well as major economic agreements between the countries. This has included a $12 billion investment from China in order to increase oil exports from Venezuela in order to become China’s fourth-largest energy provider. Cuba is one of Venezuela’s closest and most ideologically aligned partners. Particularly under Chavez, the diplomatic relations between the two countries improved dramatically. The growing relations between the two countries served as one of the main sticking points between Washington and Caracus as the two countries began to drift apart. Cuba and Venezuela have signed various joint ventures and trade deals, some of which include cheaper Venezuelan oil exported to the island nation in return for Cuban doctors. Problems have arisen recently however, with the Venezuelan National Assembly, controlled by the opposition, cutting oil exports to Cuba, which given the prior deals that featured reduced rates, has drastically improved the state oil companies margins. How the country’s relations progress from here remains a mystery.

JCC OVERVIEW

As a delegate in one of the country cabinets involved in the Bolivarian Conflict, you are a member of AmeriMUNC’s flagship, 6-way Joint Crisis Committee. Like other crisis committees, the cabinets will have both an in-room and out-room component to them. The in-room will be where the formal debate occurs, with delegates giving speeches, writing directives, and passing notes to one another, all with the aim of producing a plan of action for the committee to take. Over the course of the weekend, various crises will be thrown your way, and it is up to you and your committees to respond in the manner with which you see best fit.

While working with one another to pass directives to solve said crisis, delegates will also be emboldened with individual powers through which they can unilaterally take steps to address a crisis. Make sure that when using your crisis powers, you work towards developing a complete ‘arc’. A good way to think of it is your crisis notes should create a narrative, a story which begins with your character in the present moment and ends with your character somewhere else - an example could be trying to topple the current government to be President, or the head of a massive company. Through your research on your character and the topic, you should develop this narrative so that when you come into committee, you have an idea of where you want to go with your crisis notes.

AmeriMUNC committees are integrated within themselves - what happens in one committee has a direct impact on the others. The Bolivarian Conflict represents the core crisis with which the conference is built around and as such delegates within these 6 committees are going to be in on the ground floor of solving and addressing the most pressing issues as they arise. What differentiates a regular crisis committee from those in a JCC is the fact that there are other committees constantly interacting with your own. This means, while what you pass affects them and vice versa, it also means you can meet with, and communicate with members in other committees. This broadens the scope of diplomacy involved throughout the weekend, as you can work with delegates in the other committees within the Bolivarian Conflict either on coordinating directives, or integrating elements of each others crisis arcs.

Due to the size of this particular JCC it means the ﬂow of debate will be quite fast, as there are many individual actors operating within this simulated universe - it also means the scope is much larger, so think big when considering directives and crisis notes. REFERENCES

Ellsworth, B. and Aramas M. (2019, July 28). The Maduro mystery: Why the Armed Forces Still Stand by Venezuela’s Beleaguered President. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/investigates/ special-report/venezuela-military/.

Gibbs S. (2005, August 24). Venezuela Ends Upbeat Cuba Visit. Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4179050.stm.

Haslett C. and Scott R. (2019, February 25). VP Mike Pence meets with Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, announces more sanctions and $56M in aid. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/vice-president-mike-pence-meets-announces-sanctions-56/story?id=61297 001.

Kiger, P. (2019, May 9). How Venezuela Fell From the Richest Country in South America Into Crisis. Retrieved from https://www.history.com/news/venezuela-chavez-maduro-crisis.

Kurmanaev, Anatoly. (2019, May 17). Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/world/americas/ venezuela-economy.html.

Llama, T, et al. (2019, February 26). Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro accuses US government of fabricating a crisis to start war in South America. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/International/maduro-accuses-us-government-fabricating-crisis-start-war/story?id= 61215212.

O’Grady, S. (2019, February 8). The U.S. says Maduro is blocking aid to starving people. The Venezuelan says his people aren’t beggars. Retrieved fromhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/02/08/us-says-maduro-is-blocking-aid-starving-people-ve nezuelan-says-his-people-arent-beggars/.

Sanchez, V. (2019, August 3). Venezuela Hyperinﬂation Hits 10 Million Percent. Retrieved from venezuela-inﬂation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.

Specia, Megan. (2019, May 3). Five Things You Need to Know to Understand Venezuela’s Crisis. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/03/world/americas/venezuela-crisis-facts.html.

Venezuela Proﬁle- Timeline. (2019, February 25) A Chronology of Key Events. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-19652436.